{"id":36373,"date":"2026-03-26T14:05:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T14:05:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/36373\/"},"modified":"2026-03-26T14:05:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T14:05:08","slug":"michl-cnb-je-kvuli-iranu-pripravena-zvysit-sazby","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/36373\/","title":{"rendered":"Michl: \u010cNB je kv\u016fli \u00cdr\u00e1nu p\u0159ipravena zv\u00fd\u0161it sazby"},"content":{"rendered":"

Michl podle z\u00e1znamu<\/a>, kter\u00fd ve \u010dtvrtek \u010cNB zve\u0159ejnila, zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee je t\u0159eba vytrvat v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edsn\u00e9 m\u011bnov\u00e9 politice. \u201eJest\u0159\u00e1b\u00ed politika je nam\u00edst\u011b,\u201c nazna\u010dil p\u0159ipravenost zvedat sazby.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u011b od sazeb centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky se p\u0159itom odv\u00edjej\u00ed ceny \u00fav\u011br\u016f pro firmy a\u00a0dom\u00e1cnosti. <\/p>\n

\u010clenov\u00e9 sedmi\u010dlenn\u00e9 bankovn\u00ed rady se minul\u00fd \u010dtvrtek sice shodli, \u017ee okam\u017eit\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb by nebylo \u017e\u00e1douc\u00ed a\u00a0jednomysln\u011b rozhodli o\u00a0ponech\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby na 3,5\u00a0procenta, podle koment\u00e1\u0159\u016f analytik\u016f v\u0161ak na zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb \u010cNB m\u016f\u017ee v\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch kv\u016fli dopad\u016fm zdra\u017een\u00ed energi\u00ed doj\u00edt. <\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i pova\u017euj\u00ed za kl\u00ed\u010dovou ot\u00e1zku nejen velikost ekonomick\u00e9ho \u0161oku vyvolan\u00e9ho v\u00e1lkou na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, ale tak\u00e9 dobu jeho trv\u00e1n\u00ed a\u00a0to, jak rychle se po skon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu normalizuj\u00ed ceny komodit. <\/p>\n

Viceguvern\u00e9rka \u010cNB Eva Zamrazilov\u00e1 na jedn\u00e1n\u00ed rady minul\u00fd \u010dtvrtek uvedla, \u017ee akutn\u00ed f\u00e1ze konfliktu nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt dlouh\u00e1, ale probl\u00e9m m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159edstavovat strategick\u00e1 poloha Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu a\u00a0s n\u00ed souvisej\u00edc\u00ed trval\u00fd zdroj nejistoty. P\u0159es tento pr\u016fliv se vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed ropa z\u00a0Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, \u00cdr\u00e1n ho po napaden\u00ed Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a\u00a0Izraelem zablokoval.<\/p>\n

Bankovn\u00ed rada se na jedn\u00e1n\u00ed shodovala, \u017ee \u0161ok zastihl \u010deskou ekonomiku p\u0159i n\u00edzk\u00e9 inflaci a\u00a0s relativn\u011b vysok\u00fdmi \u00farokov\u00fdmi sazbami. Bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb by podle n\u00ed nebylo vhodnou reakc\u00ed. <\/p>\n

N\u00e1klady a\u00a0infla\u010dn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed nejsp\u00ed\u0161 porostou<\/p>\n

Pokud by ale konflikt na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b trval del\u0161\u00ed dobu a\u00a0ceny komodit se d\u00e1l zvy\u0161ovaly, mohlo by se to prom\u00edtat do vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f v\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch oblastech a\u00a0k r\u016fstu infla\u010dn\u00edch o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. Pak by centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka podle rady m\u011bla reagovat.<\/p>\n

\u010clen rady \u010cNB Jakub Seidler upozornil na to, \u017ee lid\u00e9 i\u00a0firmy si st\u00e1le dob\u0159e pamatuj\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed \u0161ok po invazi Ruska na Ukrajinu p\u0159ed \u010dty\u0159mi lety. Infla\u010dn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed se proto podle n\u011bj mohou rychleji naru\u0161it a\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny energi\u00ed se v\u00a0cen\u00e1ch ostatn\u00edch komodit mohou projevovat rychleji.<\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky bude 7.\u00a0kv\u011btna, dal\u0161\u00ed pak v\u00a0\u010dervnu a\u00a0srpnu. Na stejn\u00e9 \u00farovni je z\u00e1kladn\u00ed sazba \u010cNB od lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho kv\u011btna.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00edm rizikem nyn\u00ed je, \u017ee se nyn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst cen energi\u00ed za\u010dne prom\u00edtat tak\u00e9 do ostatn\u00edch slo\u017eek inflace. \u201eSamotn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst cen energi\u00ed je extern\u00ed povahy a\u00a0centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka s\u00a0t\u00edm p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nezm\u016f\u017ee, na druhotn\u00e9 efekty by ale ji\u017e reagovat nejsp\u00ed\u0161e musela,\u201c podotkl analytik Komer\u010dn\u00ed banky Martin G\u00fcrtler. <\/p>\n

V\u00e1lka a\u00a0uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu p\u0159i\u0161krtila dod\u00e1vky ropy, zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu, ale i\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch dal\u0161\u00edch kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch surovin, jako je h\u00e9lium. <\/p>\n

K akci je p\u0159ipravena i\u00a0ECB <\/p>\n

Zejm\u00e9na prudk\u00fd r\u016fst cen ropy ji\u017e urychluje inflaci. Na dopady v\u00e1lky na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b je proto podle sv\u00e9 \u0161\u00e9fky Christine Lagardeov\u00e9 p\u0159ipravena zareagovat zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb i\u00a0Evropsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka. <\/p>\n

\u201eVe h\u0159e je p\u0159itom hned n\u011bkolik sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f\u00a0\u2013 od um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00e9ho r\u016fstu sazeb a\u017e po razantn\u00ed reakci. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 je ale podle Christine Lagardeov\u00e9 mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee ECB infla\u010dn\u00ed \u0161ok takzvan\u011b \u201avysed\u00ed\u2018 a\u00a0sazby zvy\u0161ovat nebude\u00a0\u2013 to v\u0161e bude z\u00e1viset na rozsahu, d\u00e9lce trv\u00e1n\u00ed a\u00a0p\u0159elivu energetick\u00e9ho \u0161oku do \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed ekonomiky,\u201c poznamenal analytik \u010cSOB Dominik Rusinko.<\/p>\n

Dodal, \u017ee ke konci dubna u\u017e by mohlo b\u00fdt jasn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, zda bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00ed konflikt vy\u00fast\u00ed pouze v\u00a0do\u010dasn\u00fd \u0161ok, nebo zda p\u016fjde o\u00a0v\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed stagfla\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1sah do ekonomiky, tedy o\u00a0vysokou inflaci p\u0159i stagnaci hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho r\u016fstu, kter\u00fd si vy\u017e\u00e1d\u00e1 razantn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed reakci ze strany centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank.<\/p>\n

Podle \u00fadaj\u016f \u010cesk\u00e9ho statistick\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu v\u00a0\u00fanoru m\u00edra inflace v\u00a0\u010cesku zvolnila na 1,4\u00a0procenta z\u00a0lednov\u00fdch 1,6\u00a0procenta. J\u00e1drov\u00e1 inflace, kter\u00e1 zahrnuje v\u00fdrobky a\u00a0slu\u017eby nepodl\u00e9haj\u00edc\u00ed regulaci ani v\u00fdrazn\u00fdm cenov\u00fdm v\u00fdkyv\u016fm a\u00a0je nejl\u00e9pe ovlivniteln\u00e1 m\u011bnovou politikou centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky, byla minul\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc 2,7\u00a0procenta.<\/p>\n

Podle aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed progn\u00f3zy \u010cNB z\u00a0leto\u0161n\u00edho \u00fanora, kter\u00e1 ov\u0161em m\u016f\u017ee proj\u00edt zna\u010dnou reviz\u00ed, z\u016fstane inflace po cel\u00fd leto\u0161n\u00ed rok pod jej\u00edm dvouprocentn\u00edm c\u00edlem. V\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011bru by letos m\u011bla podle dosavadn\u00ed progn\u00f3zy b\u00fdt 1,6\u00a0procenta.<\/p>\n

\u201ePokud se konflikt a\u00a0n\u00e1sledn\u011b i\u00a0logistika v\u00a0Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu neuklidn\u00ed v\u00a0nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch n\u011bkolika t\u00fddnech, pova\u017eujeme za pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee tuzemsk\u00e1 inflace vzroste o\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed desetiny a\u017e n\u00edzk\u00e9 jednotky procentn\u00edho bodu a\u00a0vy\u017e\u00e1d\u00e1 si je\u0161t\u011b v\u00a0leto\u0161n\u00edm roce zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby v\u00a0rozmez\u00ed\u00a00,5\u00a0a\u017e jednoho procentn\u00edho bodu,\u201c domn\u00edv\u00e1 se v\u0161ak hlavn\u00ed ekonom spole\u010dnosti Investika V\u00edt Hradil.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Michl podle z\u00e1znamu, kter\u00fd ve \u010dtvrtek \u010cNB zve\u0159ejnila, zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee je t\u0159eba vytrvat v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edsn\u00e9 m\u011bnov\u00e9 politice. \u201eJest\u0159\u00e1b\u00ed politika…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":36374,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[67,68,2165,686,15090,13157],"class_list":{"0":"post-36373","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-byznys","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-byznys","10":"tag-ceska-narodni-banka-cnb","11":"tag-inflace","12":"tag-recese","13":"tag-sazby"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116295861993222382","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36373","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36373"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36373\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/36374"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36373"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36373"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36373"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}