Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 bombardovac\u00ed kampa\u0148 zasahuje tis\u00edce vojensk\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f, ale \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd re\u017eim neztr\u00e1c\u00ed schopnost udr\u017eet se u\u00a0moci a\u00a0zvy\u0161ovat ekonomick\u00e9 i\u00a0politick\u00e9 n\u00e1klady, kter\u00e9 jeho protivn\u00edci mus\u00ed sn\u00e1\u0161et. Blok\u00e1da Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu zvy\u0161uje ceny ropy a\u00a0naru\u0161uje glob\u00e1ln\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd syst\u00e9m. P\u016fvodn\u00ed Trumpovy nad\u011bje na svr\u017een\u00ed teher\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho re\u017eimu lidov\u00fdm povst\u00e1n\u00edm se nyn\u00ed zdaj\u00ed b\u00fdt iluzemi.<\/p>\n
Prezident posedl\u00fd marketingem se mus\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm ob\u00e1vat dopad\u016f na dom\u00e1c\u00ed politiku. Americk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia bez ust\u00e1n\u00ed informuj\u00ed o\u00a0riziku vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed inflace, nedostatku hnojiv v\u00a0zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed a\u00a0p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm o\u00a0stoupaj\u00edc\u00edch cen\u00e1ch pohonn\u00fdch hmot. V\u00a0tomto t\u00fddnu benz\u00edn p\u0159ekonal psychologickou hranici 4\u00a0dolar\u016f za galon, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje n\u00e1r\u016fst v\u00edce ne\u017e o\u00a0t\u0159etinu za m\u011bs\u00edc.<\/p>\n
Trump m\u00e1 dv\u011b mo\u017enosti, jak pokra\u010dovat. Prvn\u00ed je rychl\u00e9 ukon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu diplomatickou cestou. Prezident tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee prob\u00edhaj\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi z\u00e1stupci v\u00e1l\u010d\u00edc\u00edch stran a\u00a0existuje v\u016fle k\u00a0dohod\u011b o\u00a0p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd re\u017eim v\u0161ak opakovan\u011b pop\u0159el, \u017ee by se seri\u00f3zn\u00ed form\u00e1ln\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed konala, a\u00a0na soci\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00edch publikuje sarkastick\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvky o\u00a0Trumpovi vyjedn\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edm pouze ve sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed hlav\u011b. Na \u010d\u00ed stran\u011b je pravda, v\u00a0tuto chv\u00edli nev\u00edme.<\/p>\n
Druhou mo\u017enost\u00ed je eskalace konfliktu, kter\u00e1 by teokratick\u00fd re\u017eim svrhla, nebo po\u0161kodila natolik, aby p\u0159istoupil k\u00a0jedn\u00e1n\u00ed a\u00a0p\u0159ijal v\u011bt\u0161inu americk\u00fdch po\u017eadavk\u016f. Tato cesta by skoro jist\u011b znamenala vysl\u00e1n\u00ed pozemn\u00edch jednotek, kter\u00e9 by p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm musely p\u0159evz\u00edt kontrolu nad kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdmi body nutn\u00fdmi k\u00a0zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzu.<\/p>\n
Trump se ocitl mezi dv\u011bma ml\u00fdnsk\u00fdmi kameny. Nalezen\u00ed diplomatick\u00e9ho kompromisu by vy\u017eadovalo \u00fastupky i\u00a0z americk\u00e9 strany, co\u017e by v\u0161ak \u010d\u00e1st prezidentov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edznivc\u016f vn\u00edmala jako slabost v\u016f\u010di re\u017eimu, kter\u00fd pova\u017euj\u00ed za teroristick\u00fd. Eskalace k\u00a0pozemn\u00ed invazi v\u0161ak pop\u00edr\u00e1 odm\u00edtnut\u00ed anga\u017em\u00e1 USA ve v\u00e1lk\u00e1ch, na kter\u00e9m byla zalo\u017eena Trumpova kampa\u0148 v\u00a0roce 2024.<\/p>\n
Minul\u00e9 americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 kampan\u011b uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee i\u00a0Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 ochotn\u00ed podporovat bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed mohou velmi rychle zm\u011bnit n\u00e1zor, jakmile prezident n\u011bkam vy\u0161le invazn\u00ed vojska. Souslov\u00ed \u201eboots on the ground\u201c (nohy v\u00a0ter\u00e9nu) s\u00a0sebou st\u00e1le nese pachu\u0165 fiaska v\u00e1lky v\u00a0Ir\u00e1ku, kter\u00e1 zni\u010dila reputaci George W. Bushe.<\/p>\n
Dvojzna\u010dn\u00e1 a\u00a0\u010dasto i\u00a0protich\u016fdn\u00e1 prezidentova r\u00e9torika nasv\u011bd\u010duje, \u017ee se doposud nerozhodl, kterou variantu zvol\u00ed. Realita v\u00e1lky ho v\u0161ak brzy donut\u00ed p\u0159iklonit se k\u00a0jedn\u00e9 ze dvou mo\u017enost\u00ed, nen\u00ed p\u0159itom jasn\u00e9, kter\u00e1 p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed politick\u00e1 rizika. Podle v\u00fdsledek v\u00e1lky v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu bude v\u0161ak jist\u011b jednou hodnoceno d\u011bdictv\u00ed Trumpova druh\u00e9ho prezidentstv\u00ed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 bombardovac\u00ed kampa\u0148 zasahuje tis\u00edce vojensk\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f, ale \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd re\u017eim neztr\u00e1c\u00ed schopnost udr\u017eet se u\u00a0moci a\u00a0zvy\u0161ovat ekonomick\u00e9 i\u00a0politick\u00e9…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4345,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[212,6387,1810,808,54,1887,53,52],"class_list":{"0":"post-42902","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-svet","8":"tag-donald-trump","9":"tag-hormuzsky-pruliv","10":"tag-invaze","11":"tag-iran","12":"tag-svet","13":"tag-teheran","14":"tag-world","15":"tag-world-news"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116331856871754885","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42902","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42902"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42902\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4345"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42902"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42902"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42902"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}