{"id":47296,"date":"2026-04-06T19:34:12","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T19:34:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/47296\/"},"modified":"2026-04-06T19:34:12","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T19:34:12","slug":"budeme-svedky-nove-ery-americkeho-energetickeho-monopolu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/47296\/","title":{"rendered":"Budeme sv\u011bdky nov\u00e9 \u00e9ry americk\u00e9ho energetick\u00e9ho monopolu?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d, jak jsme jej znali po roce 1945, definitivn\u011b skon\u010dil. V\u00a0trosk\u00e1ch nele\u017e\u00ed jen diplomatick\u00e9 protokoly, ale i\u00a0samotn\u00e1 my\u0161lenka multipol\u00e1rn\u00edho sv\u011bta, kde o\u00a0cen\u011b tepla a\u00a0pohybu rozhoduje trh. V\u00a0sou\u010dasnosti za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 b\u00fdt jasn\u00e9, \u017ee Washington pod veden\u00edm Donalda Trumpa nehraje hru na \u201epartnerstv\u00ed\u201c. Hraje hru na p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed nejmocn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho.<\/p>\n

Oproti tradi\u010dn\u00edmu \u010dlen\u011bn\u00ed shrnu my\u0161lenky \u010dl\u00e1nku v\u00a0t\u00e9to \u010d\u00e1sti (TL;DR), proto\u017ee z\u00a0p\u0159edchoz\u00edch zku\u0161enost\u00ed maj\u00ed n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed \u010dten\u00e1\u0159i probl\u00e9m neztratit se v\u00a0textu: USA jsou (spolu s\u00a0Kanadou, Austr\u00e1li\u00ed a\u00a0Norskem) zem\u00ed, kter\u00e1 vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed ropu a\u00a0(nebo) plyn, ale p\u0159\u00edjem z\u00a0jejich prodeje netvo\u0159\u00ed podstatnou \u010d\u00e1st jejich HDP. USA produkuj\u00ed lehkou ropu, ale pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed t\u011b\u017ekou. Ve strategick\u00fdch pl\u00e1nech je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hrozbou \u010c\u00edna, kter\u00e1 tyto suroviny mohutn\u011b dov\u00e1\u017e\u00ed a\u00a0stoj\u00ed na tom jej\u00ed ekonomika. Jako prvn\u00ed p\u0159i\u0161ly na \u0159adu n\u00e1mluvy s\u00a0Ruskem a\u00a0jeho t\u011b\u017ekou ropou, kter\u00e9 zat\u00edm nedopadly. Venezuela, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 t\u011b\u017ekou ropu, je nyn\u00ed de facto loutkov\u00fdm st\u00e1tem USA. \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 ob\u0159\u00ed z\u00e1soby ropy a\u00a0zemn\u00edho plynu; bojuje se o\u00a0dosazen\u00ed proamerick\u00e9 (loutkov\u00e9) vl\u00e1dy. Pokud by \u00cdr\u00e1n splnil hrozby a\u00a0zni\u010dil ropnou a\u00a0plynovou infrastrukturu Z\u00e1livu, z\u00a0velk\u00fdch producent\u016f by zb\u00fdval Ir\u00e1k (pod kontrolou USA), Libye (ob\u010dansk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka), Kazachst\u00e1n a\u00a0Nig\u00e9rie (v\u016f\u010di n\u00ed\u017e ji\u017e v\u00fdhru\u017eky ze strany USA padly). V\u00a0nejhor\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i by byly USA se sp\u0159\u00edzn\u011bn\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty dominantn\u00edm producentem ropy a\u00a0zemn\u00edho plynu a\u00a0\u010c\u00edna i\u00a0Evropa by byly doslova energetick\u00fdmi vazaly, z\u00e1visl\u00fdmi na \u201elibov\u016fli\u201c USA.<\/p>\n

America First a\u00a0energetick\u00e9 sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/p>\n

P\u0159edvolebn\u00ed heslo Make America Great Again (MAGA) se ve v\u011bci energetiky transformovalo do slibu radik\u00e1ln\u00edho sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f na energie, co\u017e m\u011blo podn\u00edtit masivn\u00ed reindustrializaci USA. Trump sliboval, \u017ee hned prvn\u00ed den v\u00a0\u00fa\u0159ad\u011b \u201epust\u00ed vrty\u201c (ono ikonick\u00e9 \u201eDrill, baby, drill!\u201c) a\u00a0zru\u0161\u00ed ve\u0161ker\u00e1 omezen\u00ed pro export LNG a\u00a0ropy (https:\/\/oenergetice.cz\/zahranicni\/vrtat-bejby-vrtat-rok-trumpovy-energeticke-politiky). Tento sm\u011br vyhl\u00e1sil v\u00e1lku glob\u00e1ln\u00ed klimatick\u00e9 diplomacii a\u00a0nasm\u011broval zemi zp\u011bt na dr\u00e1hu dominantn\u00edho export\u00e9ra fosiln\u00edch paliv.<\/p>\n

Od sv\u00e9ho n\u00e1stupu se tak Trump neust\u00e1le sna\u017e\u00ed \u201eobr\u00e1tit v\u00a0prach star\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d\u201c postaven\u00fd na globalizaci a\u00a0voln\u00e9m obchodu. Nahradit jej m\u00e1 nov\u00fd americk\u00fd merkantilismus, kde ropa a\u00a0plyn nejsou jen komodity, ale n\u00e1stroje neomezen\u00e9 politick\u00e9 v\u016fle. V\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch odstavc\u00edch budou jednotliv\u00e9 aspekty d\u00e1le rozebr\u00e1ny.<\/p>\n

Rusk\u00fd gambit: Tarify a\u00a0pragmatick\u00fd kartel<\/p>\n

Do toho v\u0161eho se v\u00a0liber\u00e1ln\u011b zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00edch \u010dasto objevuje narativ \u201eagenta Krasnova<\/a>\u201c, proto\u017ee mnoho koment\u00e1tor\u016f a\u00a0expert\u016f si nedok\u00e1\u017ee tento obecn\u011b vst\u0159\u00edcn\u00fd a\u00a0tolerantn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup vysv\u011btlit. USA toti\u017e Rusko pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed v\u00a0boji proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b, co\u017e bylo z\u0159ejm\u00e9 u\u017e loni<\/a>. Osobn\u011b jsem v\u00a0t\u00e9 dob\u011b vid\u011bl snahu USA z\u00edskat zbrojn\u00ed zak\u00e1zky v\u00a0Evrop\u011b, ale ovl\u00e1dnut\u00ed energetick\u00e9ho trhu spojen\u00edm s\u00a0Ruskem byla divok\u00e1 teorie i\u00a0na m\u011b.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Speci\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 operace ve Venezuele<\/p>\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli zde sehr\u00e1ly korporace. Zat\u00edmco politicky se mluvilo o\u00a0demokracii, fakticky \u0161lo o\u00a0licence. Spole\u010dnosti jako Chevron (kter\u00fd z\u00edskal v\u00fdjimky u\u017e d\u0159\u00edve) a\u00a0n\u00e1sledn\u011b evropsk\u00fd Shell<\/a>, kter\u00fd se pod tlakem USA musel zapojit do projekt\u016f v\u00a0bl\u00edzkosti venezuelsk\u00fdch vod (nap\u0159. pole Dragon), se staly n\u00e1stroji nov\u00e9 americk\u00e9 spr\u00e1vy. Trumpova doktr\u00edna byla jasn\u00e1: \u201ePokud tam t\u011b\u017e\u00edte, t\u011b\u017e\u00edte pro n\u00e1s\u201c. USA tak dr\u017e\u00ed Venezuelu pod krkem a\u00a0rozhoduj\u00ed o\u00a0d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n: Od maxim\u00e1ln\u00edho tlaku k\u00a0tot\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bn\u011b<\/p>\n

Pro \u010c\u00ednu je energetick\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnost no\u010dn\u00ed m\u016frou. Pokud by USA kontrolovaly \u00cdr\u00e1n a\u00a0uzav\u0159ely spolupr\u00e1ci s\u00a0Ruskem, \u010c\u00edna by se ocitla v\u00a0energetick\u00e9m obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed. I\u00a0bez spolupr\u00e1ce s\u00a0Ruskem by rusko-\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 spolupr\u00e1ce nem\u011bla dostate\u010dnou p\u0159enosovou kapacitu, aby nahradila glob\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdpadek ropn\u00fdch a\u00a0plynov\u00fdch dodavatelsk\u00fdch trh\u016f. \u010c\u00edna tak \u00cdr\u00e1n kriticky pot\u0159ebuje a\u00a0sna\u017e\u00ed se diplomatick\u00fdmi cestami naj\u00edt \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201eNeposlu\u0161n\u00e9\u201c st\u00e1ty Nig\u00e9rie, Ir\u00e1k a\u00a0Libye<\/p>\n

Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed africk\u00fd producent ropy a\u00a0plynu, Nig\u00e9rie, dostal ultim\u00e1tum: bu\u010f vy\u010dist\u00ed deltu Nigeru od rebel\u016f a\u00a0zajist\u00ed bezpe\u010dnou t\u011b\u017ebu pro americk\u00e9 koncerny, nebo USA zas\u00e1hnou. Po prvotn\u00edm n\u00e1letu na c\u00edle a\u00a0siln\u00fdch slovech z\u00a0administrativy nakonec USA uzav\u0159ely s\u00a0Nig\u00e9ri\u00ed partnerstv\u00ed a\u00a0nyn\u00ed by zde m\u011blo p\u016fsobit na sto vojensk\u00fdch instruktor\u016f<\/a>. Nig\u00e9rie m\u00e1 silnou pozici v\u00a0r\u00e1mci Afriky i\u00a0kv\u016fli napojen\u00ed na Atlantick\u00fd oce\u00e1n. Trojl\u00edstek USA\u2013Venezuela\u2013Nig\u00e9rie by zde byl naprosto dominantn\u00ed silou.<\/p>\n

Lehk\u00e1 libyjsk\u00e1 ropa je to, co Evropa pot\u0159ebuje. Ji\u017en\u00ed st\u00e1ty Evropy jsou p\u0159ipraveny na ropu a\u00a0zemn\u00ed plyn, kter\u00e9 by v\u00fdrazn\u011b usnadnily z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed relativn\u011b kr\u00e1tkou a\u00a0hlavn\u011b bezpe\u010dnou trasou. Spekuluje se nad p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm zapojen\u00edm USA v\u00a0Libyi<\/a>, kter\u00e9 by po letech ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky p\u0159ineslo stabilitu a\u00a0mo\u017enost rozvoje t\u011b\u017eby ropy a\u00a0zemn\u00edho plynu, co\u017e by pro americk\u00e9 firmy znamenalo dal\u0161\u00ed tu\u010dn\u00e9 zisky a\u00a0v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed d\u00edl kol\u00e1\u010de sv\u011btov\u00e9 produkce.<\/p>\n

V posledn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti se ji\u017e nejedn\u00e1 o\u00a0realitu, ale pom\u011brn\u011b \u0161irok\u00e9 pojet\u00ed \u201enejhor\u0161\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 varianty\u201c, kter\u00e1 se m\u016f\u017ee v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010di men\u0161\u00ed m\u011brou napl\u0148ovat v\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch.<\/p>\n

Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 nulov\u00e9 varianty – nedostatek ropy a\u00a0dominance USA<\/p>\n

Pokud by v\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch dnech \u00cdr\u00e1n, zahnan\u00fd do \u00fazk\u00fdch, splnil sv\u00e9 hrozby a\u00a0podnikl masivn\u00ed \u00fatok na ropn\u00e1 pole v\u00a0Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii a\u00a0termin\u00e1ly v\u00a0SAE, do\u0161lo by k\u00a0okam\u017eit\u00e9mu zni\u010den\u00ed produk\u010dn\u00edho potenci\u00e1lu Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. Sv\u011bt by p\u0159i\u0161el o\u00a020\u00a0% sv\u00e9 ropy b\u011bhem jedin\u00e9 noci. To by z\u00e1rove\u0148 legitimizovalo pou\u017eit\u00ed \u201ejak\u00fdchkoliv nezbytn\u00fdch prost\u0159edk\u016f\u201c ke svr\u017een\u00ed re\u017eimu v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu, co\u017e by zp\u016fsobilo pouze dal\u0161\u00ed destrukci. Uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu by tak bylo v\u00a0kontextu destrukce energetick\u00e9 infrastruktury relativn\u011b mal\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem.<\/p>\n

Po dosazen\u00ed \u201esp\u0159\u00e1telen\u00e9\u201c vl\u00e1dy v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu by trvalo pom\u011brn\u011b dlouho, ne\u017e by byly st\u00e1ty Z\u00e1livu schopny pln\u011b obnovit svoji produkci. B\u011bhem t\u00e9 doby by USA s\u00a0paletou americk\u00e9 b\u0159idlice, venezuelsk\u00e9 t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 ropy a\u00a0\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho plynu a\u00a0ropy m\u011bly tak\u0159ka monopol, proto\u017ee rusk\u00fd ropn\u00fd pr\u016fmysl je st\u00e1le pod sankcemi a\u00a0na p\u0159\u00edkladu Indie je vid\u011bt moc USA<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Jako potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed \u201es\u0148atek z\u00a0rozumu\u201c se jev\u00ed vytvo\u0159en\u00ed energetick\u00e9 dvojice s\u00a0Ruskem, kdy by tito dva hr\u00e1\u010di mohli efektivn\u011b rozd\u011blit trh a\u00a0kombinac\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 a\u00a0diplomatick\u00e9 s\u00edly \u201ep\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit\u201c dal\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b, aby p\u0159ijaly novou realitu. Pokud by toti\u017e USA ani \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 z\u00a0j\u00edm ovl\u00e1dan\u00fdch zem\u00ed nedodaly nap\u0159\u00edklad Evrop\u011b ropu nebo zemn\u00ed plyn, cel\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed by b\u011bhem kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 doby zkolabovalo, proto\u017ee ostatn\u00ed kan\u00e1ly nejsou schopny kapacitn\u011b pokr\u00fdt evropsk\u00fd hlad po t\u011bchto surovin\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna by se tak\u00e9 ocitla ve slo\u017eit\u00e9 situaci. USA by v\u00a0t\u00e9to pozici mohly oslabit sv\u00e9ho nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho rivala, kter\u00fd by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nebyl schopen z\u00edskat odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed surovin pro sv\u00e9 mamut\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed. O\u00a0volnou kapacitu by se tak p\u0159etahoval s\u00a0ostatn\u00edmi zem\u011bmi, kter\u00e9 by byly v\u00a0nemilosti USA. O\u00a0tom, jak moc by za dan\u00e9 situace dr\u017eela Evropa tvrdohlav\u011b hlavu naho\u0159e, m\u016f\u017eeme jen dohadovat.<\/p>\n

USA pod veden\u00edm Donalda Trumpa v\u00a0tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i u\u017e nejsou demokratick\u00fdm l\u00eddrem, ale glob\u00e1ln\u00edm energetick\u00fdm spr\u00e1vcem. Star\u00e1 politika spojenectv\u00ed byla nahrazena politikou \u201evyp\u00edna\u010de\u201c. Pro Evropu a\u00a0\u010c\u00ednu to znamen\u00e1 krutou pravdu: energetick\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnost ji\u017e neexistuje jako nez\u00e1visl\u00e1 kategorie. Existuje pouze loajalita k\u00a0Washingtonu, kter\u00e1 je vykoupena p\u0159\u00edstupem k\u00a0surovin\u00e1m. USA budou d\u00edky tomu ur\u010dovat cenu ropy a\u00a0zemn\u00edho plynu a\u00a0t\u011bmito p\u00e1kami maximalizovat zisk korporac\u00ed. V\u00edtejte ve sv\u011bt\u011b korpor\u00e1tn\u00edho fa\u0161ismu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d, jak jsme jej znali po roce 1945, definitivn\u011b skon\u010dil. V\u00a0trosk\u00e1ch nele\u017e\u00ed jen diplomatick\u00e9 protokoly, ale i\u00a0samotn\u00e1…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":47297,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[202,11926,3143,150,1290,808,7704,12431,492,205,54,113,1204,53,52,2156],"class_list":{"0":"post-47296","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-svet","8":"tag-cina","9":"tag-energeticka-bezpecnost","10":"tag-energeticka-krize","11":"tag-energetika","12":"tag-irak","13":"tag-iran","14":"tag-libye","15":"tag-nigerie","16":"tag-plyn","17":"tag-ropa","18":"tag-svet","19":"tag-usa","20":"tag-venezuela","21":"tag-world","22":"tag-world-news","23":"tag-zemni-plyn"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116359441052607123","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47296","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47296"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47296\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47297"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47296"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47296"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47296"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}