{"id":47957,"date":"2026-04-07T12:33:13","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T12:33:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/47957\/"},"modified":"2026-04-07T12:33:13","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T12:33:13","slug":"riziko-tezkeho-zasahu-ceske-ekonomiky-vzrostlo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/47957\/","title":{"rendered":"Riziko t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9ho z\u00e1sahu \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky vzrostlo"},"content":{"rendered":"

Progn\u00f3zy dopad\u016f\u00a0v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem<\/a>\u00a0na \u010desk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed dost\u00e1vaj\u00ed zase o n\u011bco zlov\u011bstn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vyzn\u011bn\u00ed. S ka\u017ed\u00fdm dal\u0161\u00edm t\u00fddnem blok\u00e1dy Hormuzsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u017einy roste riziko, \u017ee se napln\u00ed negativn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed uva\u017eovan\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e. A doj\u00edt na n\u011b m\u016f\u017ee i za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty na p\u0159\u00edkaz Donalda Trumpa z jejich konfliktu proti isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republice v nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed dob\u011b vycouvaj\u00ed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Varuje p\u0159ed t\u00edm nap\u0159\u00edklad ekonom Tom\u00e1\u0161 Dvo\u0159\u00e1k z britsk\u00e9 analytick\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti Oxford Economics, kter\u00fd p\u0159ed v\u00edce ne\u017e dv\u011bma t\u00fddny\u00a0p\u0159edstavil<\/a>\u00a0dva z\u00e1kladn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e pro \u010cesko.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Uskute\u010dn\u011bn\u00ed toho negativn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho by vyhnalo tuzemskou inflaci v z\u00e1v\u011bru roku nad p\u011bt procent a sn\u00ed\u017eilo leto\u0161n\u00ed r\u016fst t\u011bsn\u011b nad jedno procento. Jeho p\u0159edpokladem je trv\u00e1n\u00ed intenzivn\u00edho konfliktu s \u00cdr\u00e1nem po cel\u00e9 p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed t\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce a r\u016fst ceny ropy na 130 dolar\u016f za barel z nyn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch 110. Podle Dvo\u0159\u00e1ka aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdvoj ud\u00e1lost\u00ed takovou hrozbu nijak nezmen\u0161il, ba naopak.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201eJe velmi re\u00e1ln\u00e9, \u017ee Donald Trump operaci proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu za dva nebo t\u0159i t\u00fddny zabal\u00ed, vyhl\u00e1s\u00ed spln\u011bn\u00ed c\u00edle a nech\u00e1 to b\u00fdt. Jen\u017ee pokud by pak nebylo mo\u017en\u00e9 \u00fa\u017einou proplouvat, tak se t\u00edm situace z hlediska ekonomick\u00fdch dopad\u016f nijak nezm\u011bn\u00ed. Hormuzem neproud\u00ed jen ropa nebo zemn\u00ed plyn, ale i amoniak, kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd pro v\u00fdrobu hnojiv, nebo helium,\u201c upozor\u0148uje Dvo\u0159\u00e1k.\u00a0Tomu se v evropsk\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 debat\u011b poda\u0159ilo zviditelnit mimo jin\u00e9 t\u00edm, \u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b na jeho post\u0159ehy odkazoval velk\u00fd n\u011bmeck\u00fd list Die Welt<\/a> p\u0159i vykreslov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010ceska jako nemocn\u00e9ho mu\u017ee Evrop<\/a>y\u00a0roku 2023. P\u0159\u00edli\u0161 konej\u0161iv\u00e1 slova Dvo\u0159\u00e1k nem\u00e1 ani nyn\u00ed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201eM\u00e1m trochu strach z toho, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd re\u017eim zatla\u010den\u00fd do kouta m\u00e1 silnou motivaci k tomu, aby si vybudoval odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed s\u00edlu v regionu a uk\u00e1zal, \u017ee m\u00e1 v ruce siln\u00e9 karty. Pokud Trumpa k odchodu z \u00cdr\u00e1nu tla\u010d\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 parametry typu cen benzinu a stavu dluhopisov\u00e9ho trhu, tak on p\u0159ece mus\u00ed brzy pochopit, \u017ee prost\u00fdm vycouv\u00e1n\u00edm USA z konfliktu se nic nevy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed,\u201c dodal ekonom.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Nejtemn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edstaviteln\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159<\/p>\n

\u201eDokonce nyn\u00ed n\u00e1\u0161 t\u00fdm vytvo\u0159il na p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed klient\u016f, zejm\u00e9na bank, i jeden extr\u00e9mn\u011b \u010dern\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159. Po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s t\u00edm nejhor\u0161\u00edm, co si dovedeme p\u0159edstavit. Zahrnuje \u0161\u00edlen\u00e9 p\u0159edpoklady typu n\u00e1r\u016fstu ceny ropy na 150 a\u017e 190 dolar\u016f za barel. V tu chv\u00edli by v\u011bt\u0161ina vysp\u011bl\u00fdch ekonomik spadla alespo\u0148 na chv\u00edli do recese. Takov\u00fd v\u00fdvoj ud\u00e1lost\u00ed je ale m\u00e1lo pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd. Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 je pojat\u00fd hlavn\u011b jako stres test pro rozvahy bank,\u201c upozor\u0148uje Dvo\u0159\u00e1k. Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e n\u011bkolikaprocentn\u00ed \u0161anci jeho napln\u011bn\u00ed ned\u00e1v\u00e1.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Zat\u00edm st\u00e1le je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ipisuje nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost takzvan\u00e9mu st\u0159edn\u00edmu z\u00e1t\u011b\u017eov\u00e9mu sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i pro \u010cesko. Jeho p\u0159edpokladem je konec v\u00e1lky s Teher\u00e1nem v tomto \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed a b\u011bhem let 2026 a\u017e 2027 postupn\u00fd n\u00e1vrat cen ropy k hodnot\u00e1m p\u0159ed za\u010d\u00e1tkem v\u00e1lky. I takov\u00e1 varianta by ale podle Oxford Economics znamenala zpomalen\u00ed tempa r\u016fstu HDP pod dv\u011b procenta, n\u00e1r\u016fst inflace na 3,9 procenta v z\u00e1v\u011bru roku a nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb ze strany \u010cesk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banky o 75 bazick\u00fdch bod\u016f.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201eP\u0159i p\u0159\u00edprav\u011b sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f jsme podcenili rozsah ni\u010den\u00ed energetick\u00e9 infrastruktury na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 jsme nijak nekalkulovali s p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fdmi opat\u0159en\u00edmi vl\u00e1dy. Pokud se rozhodne dopady konfliktu s \u00cdr\u00e1nem m\u00edrnit, mo\u017en\u00e1 by to mohlo hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed pomoci, by\u0165 za cenu vy\u0161\u0161\u00edho zadlu\u017een\u00ed a n\u00e1r\u016fstu v\u00fdnos\u016f dluhopis\u016f,\u201c hodnot\u00ed zp\u011btn\u011b Dvo\u0159\u00e1k.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Inflace vzroste ji\u017e brzy<\/p>\n

Lednov\u00fd v\u00fdhled ministerstva financ\u00ed p\u016fvodn\u011b p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dal r\u016fst HDP o 2,4 procenta a inflaci 2,1 procenta. \u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka v \u00fanoru odhadla r\u016fst na 2,9 procenta a inflaci na 1,6 procenta.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Potenci\u00e1ln\u011b razantn\u00ed zrychlen\u00ed inflace je v\u00fdzvou pro m\u011bnovou politiku \u010cNB. Ta od lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho kv\u011btna dr\u017e\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed sazbu beze zm\u011bny na \u00farovni 3,5 procenta, na \u010dem\u017e nic nezm\u011bnilo ani posledn\u00ed zased\u00e1n\u00ed bankovn\u00ed rady v b\u0159eznu. Do hry se sazby mohou vr\u00e1tit v kv\u011btnu, kdy se bude rada rozhodovat nad novou progn\u00f3zou a z\u0159ejm\u011b bude m\u00edt k dispozici i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e d\u016fsledk\u016f cenov\u00fdch v\u00fdkyv\u016f na komoditn\u00edch trz\u00edch<\/a>.\u00a0Je\u0161t\u011b b\u011bhem dubna obvykle zve\u0159ej\u0148uje sv\u00e9 pravideln\u00e9 \u010dtvrtletn\u00ed makroekonomick\u00e9 predikce ministerstvo financ\u00ed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

VIDEO: Trhy n\u00e1m p\u0159est\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u011b\u0159it, \u010cesko je u\u017e rizikov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e \u0158ecko, \u0159ekl v lednu Navr\u00e1til z \u010cesk\u00e9 spo\u0159itelny v po\u0159adu FLOW<\/a>:\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"Video<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\tFLOW: Rozhovor s Davidem Navr\u00e1tilem \u2022 e15\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n

Sv\u00e9 odhady budouc\u00ed kondice \u010ceska ale u\u017e te\u010f zve\u0159ej\u0148uje \u0159ada dal\u0161\u00edch instituc\u00ed, nejen t\u011bch st\u00e1tn\u00edch. Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed inflaci o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 krom\u011b Dvo\u0159\u00e1ka nap\u0159\u00edklad ekonom Radom\u00edr J\u00e1\u010d, kter\u00fd p\u0159ed dv\u011bma t\u00fddny\u00a0podle e15 odhadoval<\/a>\u00a0jej\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst na \u00farove\u0148 t\u0159\u00ed procent zkraje p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku. \u201eN\u00e1sledn\u011b bychom ale \u010dekali zklidn\u011bn\u00ed cenov\u00e9ho r\u016fstu a pokles meziro\u010dn\u00ed inflace bl\u00ed\u017ee ke dv\u011bma procent\u016fm,\u201c dodal ned\u00e1vno J\u00e1\u010d, kter\u00fd kon\u010d\u00ed na pozici hlavn\u00edho ekonoma Generali Investments CEE a podle mluv\u010d\u00ed banky \u0160\u00e1rky Bouzkov\u00e9 p\u0159ech\u00e1z\u00ed do \u010cesk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banky.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ekonom \u010cSOB Jan Bure\u0161 odhadoval ve stejn\u00e9 dob\u011b jako J\u00e1\u010d v\u00fd\u0161i inflace kolem t\u0159\u00ed procent pro cel\u00fd rok 2027. Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00fadaj o \u010desk\u00e9 inflaci v b\u0159eznu uk\u00e1zal meziro\u010dn\u00ed tempo zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed 1,9 procenta, tedy \u010d\u00edslo pod c\u00edlem \u010cesk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banky.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201eProdlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho konfliktu, rostouc\u00ed \u0161kody na energetick\u00e9 infrastruktu\u0159e a ohro\u017een\u00ed dod\u00e1vek kritick\u00fdch vstup\u016f pro kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 odv\u011btv\u00ed ekonomiky n\u00e1s ale vedou k nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed progn\u00f3zy inflace,\u201c varuje portfolio mana\u017eer Generali Investments CEE Martin Pohl, kter\u00fd J\u00e1\u010dovu agendu \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b p\u0159eb\u00edr\u00e1. \u201ePrvn\u00ed dopady prudk\u00e9ho r\u016fstu cen energi\u00ed by m\u011bly dostat inflaci k \u00farovni 2,5 procenta ji\u017e ve druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed tohoto roku. Vrchol mezi 3,5 a\u017e \u010dty\u0159mi procenty o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2027.\u201c\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Progn\u00f3zy dopad\u016f\u00a0v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem\u00a0na \u010desk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed dost\u00e1vaj\u00ed zase o n\u011bco zlov\u011bstn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vyzn\u011bn\u00ed. S ka\u017ed\u00fdm dal\u0161\u00edm t\u00fddnem blok\u00e1dy Hormuzsk\u00e9…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":47958,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[67,68,42,11450,686,808,18092,18091,10596,18090,205,18089],"class_list":{"0":"post-47957","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-byznys","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-byznys","10":"tag-cesko","11":"tag-hdp","12":"tag-inflace","13":"tag-iran","14":"tag-makroekonomika","15":"tag-martin-pohl","16":"tag-prognoza","17":"tag-radomir-jac","18":"tag-ropa","19":"tag-tomas-dvorak"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116363447888374335","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47957","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47957"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47957\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47958"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47957"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47957"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47957"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}