{"id":50088,"date":"2026-04-09T13:18:10","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T13:18:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/50088\/"},"modified":"2026-04-09T13:18:10","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T13:18:10","slug":"komentar-nejtvrdsi-reformy-jsme-si-odhlasovali-sami-nizkou-porodnosti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/50088\/","title":{"rendered":"Koment\u00e1\u0159: Nejtvrd\u0161\u00ed reformy jsme si odhlasovali sami\u00a0\u2013 n\u00edzkou porodnost\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"

77\u00a0636\u00a0narozen\u00fdch d\u011bt\u00ed v\u00a0minul\u00e9m roce. Nejm\u00e9n\u011b za 240\u00a0let. Tak\u00e9 v\u00edte, \u010d\u00edm to je? Mlad\u00ed se neberou! Po\u010det s\u0148atk\u016f skute\u010dn\u011b kles\u00e1, ale t\u0159eba v\u00a0roce 2013\u00a0jich bylo je\u0161t\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b. A\u00a0rozv\u00e1d\u00ed se! Po letech poklesu rozvodovosti skute\u010dn\u011b po\u010det rozvod\u016f trochu stoupl, ale za posledn\u00edch deset let se po\u010det rozveden\u00fdch p\u00e1r\u016f sn\u00ed\u017eil o\u00a0p\u011btinu. Tak potraty! To je mo\u017en\u00e1 pro n\u011bkoho hodnotov\u00fd probl\u00e9m, ale rozhodn\u011b ne statistick\u00fd\u00a0\u2013 z\u00a0p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b sto tis\u00edc interrupc\u00ed na po\u010d\u00e1tku 90.\u00a0let jsme doklesali na n\u011bjak\u00fdch 15\u00a0tis\u00edc.<\/p>\n

Tak za to mohou ekonomick\u00e9 nejistoty! Vzd\u011bl\u00e1vac\u00edch a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch slu\u017eeb pro d\u011bti bylo v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech zoufale m\u00e1lo. Sehnat bydlen\u00ed ve velk\u00fdch aglomerac\u00edch je skoro nemo\u017en\u00e9. To v\u0161e je jist\u011b pravda a\u00a0vliv socioekonomick\u00fdch podm\u00ednek na pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed rodiny bez v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed dokl\u00e1d\u00e1 t\u0159eba i\u00a0dlouhodob\u00fd v\u00fdzkumn\u00fd projekt \u201eSou\u010dasn\u00e1 \u010desk\u00e1 rodina\u201c<\/a>. Ale nep\u0159\u00edli\u0161 r\u016f\u017eov\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 podm\u00ednky pro zakl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed rodiny zde byly i\u00a0v minulosti, a\u00a0p\u0159esto se rodilo v\u00edce d\u011bt\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Tak \u017ee by za to mohl sv\u011bt pln\u00fd v\u00e1lek? Soci\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00ed? Klimatick\u00e9ho \u017ealu? Nerovnost\u00ed? Dosadit m\u016f\u017eete dle libosti dal\u0161\u00ed fenom\u00e9ny sou\u010dasnosti, ale jak\u00fd to m\u00e1 dopad na porodnost, to u\u017e by bylo opravdu v\u011b\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed z\u00a0k\u0159i\u0161\u0165\u00e1lov\u00e9 koule.<\/p>\n

Pravda je takov\u00e1, \u017ee co je za aktu\u00e1ln\u00edm ob\u0159\u00edm propadem porodnosti a\u00a0plodnosti nejen v\u00a0\u010cesku, ale i\u00a0v cel\u00e9 Evrop\u011b, zat\u00edm nev\u00edme.<\/p>\n

V\u00edme ale celkem p\u0159esn\u011b, co to bude pro \u010cesko znamenat.<\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed demografick\u00fd zub<\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 \u010desk\u00e1 politika je v\u00a0zajet\u00ed minul\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, jak vy\u0159e\u0161it demografick\u00fd zub, kter\u00fd se ji\u017e zcela jist\u011b zakousne do \u010desk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti od 30.\u00a0do 50.\u00a0let. Do d\u016fchodu p\u016fjdou tzv. Hus\u00e1kovy d\u011bti ze siln\u00e9 generace 70.\u00a0let, kdy p\u0159ich\u00e1zelo na sv\u011bt i\u00a0190\u00a0tis\u00edc d\u011bt\u00ed ro\u010dn\u011b. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u00a0aktivn\u00edm v\u011bku z\u016fstanou po\u010detn\u011b slab\u00e9 ro\u010dn\u00edky z\u00a090.\u00a0let, kdy se narodilo t\u0159eba i\u00a0jen 90\u00a0tis\u00edc d\u011bt\u00ed. Ten nepom\u011br je obrovsk\u00fd a\u00a0devastuje v\u0161e, co je v\u00a0\u010desk\u00e9m syst\u00e9mu nastaveno pr\u016fb\u011bhov\u011b, tedy solid\u00e1rn\u011b mezi generacemi.<\/p>\n

Souvisej\u00edc\u00ed<\/a><\/p>\n

Jen t\u011b\u017eko zaru\u010dit beze zm\u011bn pr\u016fb\u011bhov\u00fd syst\u00e9m d\u016fchod\u016f, takzvan\u00fd prvn\u00ed pil\u00ed\u0159, kdy\u017e soci\u00e1ln\u00ed pojistn\u00e9 najednou plat\u00ed o\u00a0sto tis\u00edc lid\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b, ne\u017e kolik jich odch\u00e1z\u00ed do penze. Podobn\u00e9 je to se zdravotnick\u00fdm syst\u00e9mem. A\u00a0v\u00fdpadky samoz\u0159ejm\u011b poc\u00edt\u00ed i\u00a0trh pr\u00e1ce.<\/p>\n

Jakkoliv je to nepopul\u00e1rn\u00ed, je zjevn\u00e9, \u017ee se nad\u00e1le bude prodlu\u017eovat v\u011bk pro odchod do d\u016fchodu. Je dob\u0159e, \u017ee vl\u00e1dn\u00ed hnut\u00ed ANO u\u017e ub\u00edr\u00e1<\/a> ze sv\u00fdch nesmlouvav\u00fdch slib\u016f, \u017ee okam\u017eit\u011b zru\u0161\u00ed posunut\u00ed hranice na 67\u00a0let. Stejn\u011b tak chce nechat v\u00a0platnosti pomalej\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst d\u016fchod\u016f v\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch letech.<\/p>\n

To v\u0161e je debata, kterou ji\u017e v\u0161ichni dob\u0159e znaj\u00ed z\u00a0r\u00e9torick\u00fdch bitev z\u00a0posledn\u00edch sn\u011bmovn\u00edch voleb. Ale jednu v\u011bc jsme p\u0159i tehdej\u0161\u00edch p\u016ftk\u00e1ch netu\u0161ili. \u017de mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00e1 porodnost bude nov\u00fdm norm\u00e1lem na je\u0161t\u011b hodn\u011b let dop\u0159edu. A\u00a0to vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed \u00fapln\u011b nov\u00fd probl\u00e9m.<\/p>\n

Druh\u00fd demografick\u00fd zub<\/p>\n

Podle demograf\u016f se je\u0161t\u011b n\u011bkolik let udr\u017e\u00edme<\/a> na ne\u010dekan\u011b n\u00edzk\u00e9 porodnosti pod 80\u00a0tis\u00edc d\u011bt\u00ed a\u00a0plodnosti n\u011bkde kolem 1,3\u00a0d\u00edt\u011bte na \u017eenu. Nepou\u0161t\u011bjme se te\u010f do hodnotov\u00fdch debat, zda jsme m\u011bli v\u00edce pen\u011bz v\u011bnovat na ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 slu\u017eby pro d\u011bti jako ve \u0160v\u00e9dsku, uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1vat demografick\u00e9 summity jako v\u00a0Ma\u010farsku nebo omezit co nejv\u00edce potraty jako v\u00a0Polsku. Stejn\u011b by to k\u00a0ni\u010demu nevedlo, v\u0161ude pad\u00e1 porodnost extr\u00e9mn\u00edm tempem.<\/p>\n

Ale d\u016fsledky jsou zjevn\u00e9. Devades\u00e1t\u00e1 l\u00e9ta v\u00a0postkomunistick\u00fdch zem\u00edch s\u00a0n\u00edzkou porodnost\u00ed nebyla zjevn\u011b jen transforma\u010dn\u00ed anom\u00e1li\u00ed, po kter\u00e9 n\u00e1sledoval v\u00a0mnoha zem\u00edch mal\u00fd popula\u010dn\u00ed boom, a\u00a0to v\u010detn\u011b \u010ceska, kde se v\u00a0roce 2017\u00a0narodilo p\u0159es 114\u00a0tis\u00edc d\u011bt\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Realita je takov\u00e1, \u017ee po demografick\u00e9m zubu z\u00a090.\u00a0let n\u00e1sleduje dal\u0161\u00ed z\u00a0konce 20.\u00a0let a\u00a0nev\u00edme, jak dlouho potrv\u00e1. On\u011bch 77\u00a0tis\u00edc nyn\u00ed narozen\u00fdch d\u011bt\u00ed p\u016fjde n\u011bkdy za 25\u00a0let naplno na pracovn\u00ed trh, kdy bude odch\u00e1zet n\u011bjak\u00fdch 100\u00a0tis\u00edc senior\u016f do d\u016fchodu. To vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed pnut\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Kdo si tedy myslel, \u017ee sta\u010d\u00ed jen na dluh poplatit v\u00fdpadky soci\u00e1ln\u00edho syst\u00e9mu na\u00a0trhu pr\u00e1ce za \u201enenarozen\u00e9 d\u011bti\u201c z\u00a090.\u00a0let, byl na omylu\u00a0\u2013 v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 propady se opakuj\u00ed a\u00a0je t\u0159eba to \u0159e\u0161it syst\u00e9mov\u011b. A\u00a0bude to drsn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Pou\u010den\u00ed z\u00a0krizov\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje<\/p>\n

Ur\u010dit\u011b plat\u00ed, \u017ee \u010d\u00edm \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011bji zvl\u00e1dneme p\u0159ekonat prvn\u00ed demografick\u00fd zub, o\u00a0to m\u00e9n\u011b n\u00e1s bude bolet ten dal\u0161\u00ed. P\u0159es v\u0161echno t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 politick\u00e9 dohadov\u00e1n\u00ed se \u010cesko nepochybn\u011b na st\u00e1rnut\u00ed populace alespo\u0148 trochu p\u0159ipravuje: Jak u\u017e jsme zm\u00ednili, debata o\u00a0prodlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u011bku pro odchod do d\u016fchodu je hork\u00e9 politick\u00e9 t\u00e9ma. Od roku 2025\u00a0tu je sleva na soci\u00e1ln\u00edm pojistn\u00e9m pro pracuj\u00edc\u00edho d\u016fchodce 6,5\u00a0procenta, co\u017e pob\u00edz\u00ed k\u00a0jeho del\u0161\u00edmu setrv\u00e1n\u00ed na trhu pr\u00e1ce. Od roku 2023\u00a0zam\u011bstnavatel m\u016f\u017ee uplatnit slevu na zkr\u00e1cen\u00fd \u00favazek mlad\u00e9ho \u010di star\u0161\u00edho pracovn\u00edka ve v\u00fd\u0161i p\u011bti procent z\u00a0pojistn\u00e9ho.<\/p>\n

A je toho mnohem v\u00edce: Centralizuje se zdravotn\u00ed p\u00e9\u010de, stejn\u011b tak \u0161kolstv\u00ed<\/a>, kdy vznikaj\u00ed u\u017e alespo\u0148 n\u011bkde svazkov\u00e9 \u0161koly, kter\u00e9 udr\u017e\u00ed dostupnou vzd\u011blanost v\u00a0\u0161ir\u0161\u00edch regionech i\u00a0b\u011bhem demografick\u00fdch poryv\u016f.<\/p>\n

Souvisej\u00edc\u00ed<\/a><\/p>\n

Vid\u00edme ale, \u017ee to p\u0159esto nesta\u010d\u00ed. Pokud n\u011bkolik let za sebou bude porodnost tak n\u00edzk\u00e1\u00a0\u2013 a\u00a0nic nenasv\u011bd\u010duje tomu, \u017ee to bude jinak\u00a0\u2013, pak m\u00edsto opatrn\u00fdch reforem jsme si nyn\u00ed odhlasovali ty nejtvrd\u0161\u00ed. Chyb\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed statis\u00edce pr\u00e1ceschopn\u00fdch v\u00a0produktivn\u00edm v\u011bku v\u00a0polovin\u011b i\u00a0na konci tohoto stolet\u00ed neznamenaj\u00ed nic jin\u00e9ho ne\u017e kontinu\u00e1ln\u00ed prodlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u011bku pro odchod do d\u016fchodu.<\/p>\n

Nebude to dlouho trvat a\u00a0jednocifern\u00e9 procentn\u00ed slevy na pojistn\u00e9 pro lidi v\u00a0p\u0159edd\u016fchodov\u00e9m a\u00a0d\u016fchodov\u00e9m v\u011bku budou dvoucifern\u00e9, jen aby tu n\u011bkdo v\u016fbec pracoval a\u00a0nepokl\u00e1dal se do soci\u00e1ln\u00edho syst\u00e9mu. Nyn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed urputnou debatu o\u00a0v\u00fd\u0161i penz\u00ed rychle nahrad\u00ed debata, zda v\u016fbec st\u00e1t dok\u00e1\u017ee zaplatit v\u00fdrazn\u011b se zvy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed n\u00e1klady na zdravotn\u00ed a\u00a0dlouhodobou p\u00e9\u010di. Centr\u00e1ln\u011b \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 zdravotn\u00ed, \u0161kolsk\u00e9 \u010di soci\u00e1ln\u00ed slu\u017eby pro \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed regiony budou nutnost\u00ed, aby se dok\u00e1zaly vyrovnat s\u00a0demografick\u00fdmi zvraty. A\u00a0i p\u0159es to v\u0161echno asi stejn\u011b budeme platit vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed dan\u011b \u010di se v\u00edce zadlu\u017eovat, abychom udr\u017eeli z\u00e1kladn\u00ed solid\u00e1rn\u00ed povinnosti st\u00e1tu v\u016f\u010di sv\u00fdm ob\u010dan\u016fm.<\/p>\n

jist\u011b, trh pr\u00e1ce m\u016f\u017ee v\u00fdrazn\u011b zm\u011bnit AI. A\u00a0t\u0159eba sem p\u0159ijdou dal\u0161\u00ed statis\u00edce migrant\u016f pracovat a\u00a0platit dan\u011b, jako tomu bylo v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b ukrajinsk\u00fdch b\u011b\u017eenc\u016f. Ale nic z\u00a0toho z\u00e1sadn\u011b nezm\u011bn\u00ed ji\u017e nyn\u00ed celkem jasn\u011b nar\u00fdsovan\u00fd demografick\u00fd v\u00fdhled.<\/p>\n

St\u00e1rnouc\u00ed spole\u010dnost je drah\u00e1, je t\u0159eba si to p\u0159iznat a\u00a0nezav\u00edrat p\u0159ed t\u00edm o\u010di.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"77\u00a0636\u00a0narozen\u00fdch d\u011bt\u00ed v\u00a0minul\u00e9m roce. Nejm\u00e9n\u011b za 240\u00a0let. Tak\u00e9 v\u00edte, \u010d\u00edm to je? Mlad\u00ed se neberou! Po\u010det s\u0148atk\u016f skute\u010dn\u011b…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":50089,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[43,42,41,40,3421,1478,1483,4334,442],"class_list":{"0":"post-50088","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-cesko","8":"tag-ceska-republika","9":"tag-cesko","10":"tag-czech-republic","11":"tag-czechia","12":"tag-duchod","13":"tag-duchodova-reforma","14":"tag-odchod-do-duchodu","15":"tag-porodnost","16":"tag-skolstvi"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116374949418695132","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50088","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50088"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50088\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50089"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50088"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50088"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50088"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}