{"id":53568,"date":"2026-04-13T11:30:10","date_gmt":"2026-04-13T11:30:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/53568\/"},"modified":"2026-04-13T11:30:10","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T11:30:10","slug":"parket-nejprve-hrozba-pak-uleva-trumpuv-vzorec-dal-hybe-trhy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/53568\/","title":{"rendered":"Parket: Nejprve hrozba, pak \u00faleva. Trump\u016fv vzorec d\u00e1l h\u00fdbe trhy"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u010ctete uk\u00e1zku z\u00a0newsletteru Parket, ve kter\u00e9m Luk\u00e1\u0161 Vo\u017een\u00edlek p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed ty nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed novinky ze z\u00e1kulis\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00edch trh\u016f. Pokud v\u00e1s zaj\u00edm\u00e1 v\u00fdvoj burzovn\u00edch index\u016f, cen komodit \u010di m\u011bnov\u00fdch kurz\u016f, p\u0159ihlaste se k\u00a0odb\u011bru<\/a> a\u00a0cel\u00fd newsletter budete ka\u017ed\u00e9 pond\u011bl\u00ed dost\u00e1vat do sv\u00e9 e-mailov\u00e9 schr\u00e1nky.<\/p>\n

Americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump znovu rozv\u00ed\u0159il finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy a\u00a0z\u00e1rove\u0148 potvrdil vzorec, na kter\u00fd si investo\u0159i v\u00a0posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch a\u017e p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b zvykli. Po dnech ostr\u00e9 r\u00e9toriky v\u016f\u010di \u00cdr\u00e1nu, b\u011bhem nich\u017e Washington hrozil dal\u0161\u00edmi \u00fadery a\u00a0eskalac\u00ed, ozn\u00e1mil Trump dvout\u00fddenn\u00ed pozastaven\u00ed americk\u00e9ho bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0r\u00e1mci k\u0159ehk\u00e9 dohody o\u00a0p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed boj\u016f. Pro geopolitiku je to dal\u0161\u00ed epizoda krizov\u00e9ho vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. Pro trhy t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 u\u010debnicov\u00fd moment.<\/p>\n

Reakce trh\u016f byla okam\u017eit\u00e1. Cena ropy prudce klesla, akciov\u00e9 trhy naopak pos\u00edlily a\u00a0investo\u0159i za\u010dali opou\u0161t\u011bt takzvan\u00e9 bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstavy. D\u016fvod je jednoduch\u00fd\u00a0\u2013 v\u00a0s\u00e1zce byl v\u00fdvoj kolem Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, jedn\u00e9 z\u00a0nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch tepen sv\u011btov\u00e9ho obchodu s\u00a0ropou a\u00a0LNG.<\/p>\n

Jakmile se objevila nad\u011bje, \u017ee nedojde k\u00a0jeho uzav\u0159en\u00ed nebo naru\u0161en\u00ed provozu, z\u00a0cen energi\u00ed rychle zmizela takzvan\u00e1 geopolitick\u00e1 pr\u00e9mie, tedy p\u0159ir\u00e1\u017eka za riziko konfliktu. Na fyzick\u00e9m trhu ale nap\u011bt\u00ed nezmizelo. Dod\u00e1vky z\u016fstaly naru\u0161en\u00e9 a\u00a0obchodn\u00edci d\u00e1l po\u010d\u00edtali s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee n\u00e1vrat k\u00a0norm\u00e1lu nebude rychl\u00fd ani automatick\u00fd. U\u017e tehdy nav\u00edc bylo z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee trhy reaguj\u00ed hlavn\u011b na do\u010dasnou \u00falevu, nikoli na skute\u010dn\u011b vy\u0159e\u0161en\u00fd konflikt.<\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b v\u00a0takov\u00fdch chv\u00edl\u00edch se na Wall Street vrac\u00ed pojem \u201eTACO trade\u201c, kter\u00fd v\u00a0posledn\u00edm roce zlidov\u011bl mezi investory i\u00a0tr\u017en\u00edmi koment\u00e1tory. Zkratka znamen\u00e1 \u201eTrump Always Chickens Out\u201c, voln\u011b p\u0159elo\u017eeno n\u011bco jako \u201eTrump nakonec v\u017edycky cukne\u201c.<\/p>\n

Term\u00edn zpopularizoval koment\u00e1tor listu Financial Times Robert Armstrong a\u00a0pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 se pro situace, kdy Trump nejprve p\u0159ijde s\u00a0velmi tvrdou hrozbou nebo radik\u00e1ln\u00edm opat\u0159en\u00edm, \u010d\u00edm\u017e trhy vyd\u011bs\u00ed, ale n\u00e1sledn\u011b na posledn\u00ed chv\u00edli term\u00edn posune, krok zm\u00edrn\u00ed nebo zvol\u00ed kompromisn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed. V\u00fdsledkem je dob\u0159e zn\u00e1m\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u00a0\u2013 nejd\u0159\u00edv nervozita, potom \u00faleva a\u00a0rychl\u00fd odraz cen aktiv.<\/p>\n

Trhy u\u017e tenhle p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh znaj\u00ed<\/p>\n

Nejl\u00e9pe byl tento vzorec vid\u011bt v\u00a0obchodn\u00ed politice, tedy v\u00a0oblasti, kde si trhy na Trump\u016fv styl zvykly asi nejrychleji. Kdy\u017e loni americk\u00fd prezident ozn\u00e1mil rozs\u00e1hl\u00e1 cla v\u016f\u010di \u0159ad\u011b obchodn\u00edch partner\u016f, investo\u0159i reagovali v\u00fdprodejem a\u00a0obavami z\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n

Kr\u00e1tce nato ale p\u0159i\u0161el obrat v\u00a0podob\u011b odkladu velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti opat\u0159en\u00ed, co\u017e vyvolalo prudk\u00e9 zotaven\u00ed akci\u00ed i\u00a0rizikov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch aktiv. Pr\u00e1v\u011b odtud se TACO trade roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159il do b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho investorsk\u00e9ho slovn\u00edku. Jako s\u00e1zka na to, \u017ee Trump sice zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed tlak, ale nakonec nezajde a\u017e na sam\u00fd okraj propasti.<\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 situace kolem \u00cdr\u00e1nu do tohoto r\u00e1mce zapad\u00e1 pom\u011brn\u011b p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u011b, i\u00a0kdy\u017e ne tak dokonale jako pr\u00e1v\u011b celn\u00ed politika. Trump toti\u017e skute\u010dn\u011b vystup\u0148oval tlak a\u00a0je\u0161t\u011b v\u00a0prvn\u00edm dubnov\u00e9m t\u00fddnu d\u00e1l zost\u0159oval r\u00e9toriku v\u016f\u010di Teher\u00e1nu, co\u017e spolu s\u00a0blok\u00e1dou Hormuzu pomohlo vyhnat ceny ropy vysoko nad 100\u00a0dolar\u016f za barel, chv\u00edlemi a\u017e k\u00a0\u00farovn\u00edm bl\u00edzko 120\u00a0dolar\u016fm.<\/p>\n

O n\u011bkolik dn\u00ed pozd\u011bji ale p\u0159i\u0161el obrat. Dvout\u00fddenn\u00ed p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed boj\u016f a\u00a0nad\u011bje, \u017ee nedojde k\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edmu zhor\u0161en\u00ed situace, obr\u00e1tily n\u00e1ladu na trz\u00edch. Brent b\u011bhem jedin\u00e9ho dne spadl o\u00a0zhruba 13\u00a0procent a\u00a0americk\u00e1 WTI asi o\u00a016\u00a0procent, co\u017e byl nejprud\u0161\u00ed jednodenn\u00ed procentn\u00ed pokles od dubna 2020.\u00a0Jen\u017ee tato \u00faleva netrvala dlouho. Po v\u00edkendov\u00e9m krachu jedn\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9m Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du se nap\u011bt\u00ed rychle vr\u00e1tilo a\u00a0ropa znovu v\u00fdrazn\u011b zdra\u017eila.<\/p>\n

Z pohledu investor\u016f \u0161lo t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 o\u00a0u\u010debnicov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edklad stejn\u00e9ho mechanismu\u00a0\u2013 nejprve hrozba, pot\u00e9 \u00faleva. Zn\u00e1m\u00fd tr\u017en\u00ed p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh, tentokr\u00e1t v\u0161ak s\u00a0mnohem vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed geopolitickou s\u00e1zkou. Sou\u010dasn\u011b se ale znovu uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee obrat v\u00a0Trumpov\u011b r\u00e9torice je\u0161t\u011b nemus\u00ed znamenat stabiln\u00ed konec nap\u011bt\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Tentokr\u00e1t nejde jen o\u00a0Trumpa<\/p>\n

Je pot\u0159eba dodat, \u017ee v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1nu nejde jen o\u00a0Trumpovu psychologii nebo o\u00a0tr\u017en\u00ed zkratku. Ve h\u0159e jsou i\u00a0velmi konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed rizika pro energetick\u00fd trh a\u00a0glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku. Pokud by z\u016fstal Hormuz d\u00e9le blokovan\u00fd, na trhu by chyb\u011bly miliony barel\u016f ropy denn\u011b, komplikoval by se v\u00fdvoz LNG a\u00a0pod tlak by se dostaly ekonomiky z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na dovozu energi\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0Asii.<\/p>\n

Agentura Reuters nav\u00edc upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee i\u00a0po ozn\u00e1men\u00ed p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed boj\u016f z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 situace k\u0159ehk\u00e1. V\u00a0oblasti \u010dekaj\u00ed stovky lod\u00ed v\u010detn\u011b tanker\u016f, \u010d\u00e1st infrastruktury i\u00a0logistick\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f je naru\u0161en\u00e1 a\u00a0obchodn\u00edci i\u00a0rejda\u0159i po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee geopolitick\u00e9 riziko z\u00a0trhu nezmiz\u00ed ze dne na den.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Do toho nav\u00edc po v\u00edkendov\u00e9m ne\u00fasp\u011bchu rozhovor\u016f znovu vzrostlo nap\u011bt\u00ed kolem samotn\u00e9ho re\u017eimu plavby. Washington ozn\u00e1mil blok\u00e1du lodn\u00ed dopravy do a\u00a0z \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f, zat\u00edmco \u00cdr\u00e1n varoval, \u017ee p\u0159ibli\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed vojensk\u00fdch lod\u00ed bude pova\u017eovat za poru\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. Samotn\u00fd pr\u016fliv p\u0159itom z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 otev\u0159en\u00fd pro lod\u011b, kter\u00e9 nesm\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed do \u00cdr\u00e1nu, co\u017e je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 nuance i\u00a0pro trhy.<\/p>\n

Pro investory z\u00a0toho plyne celkem srozumiteln\u00e1 lekce. Trhy u\u017e se Trumpovu stylu nau\u010dily naslouchat po sv\u00e9m. Kdy\u017e p\u0159ijde ostr\u00e1 hrozba, neberou ji automaticky jako kone\u010dn\u00fd stav, ale zva\u017euj\u00ed i\u00a0mo\u017enost, \u017ee jde o\u00a0sou\u010d\u00e1st vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00ed taktiky, po n\u00ed\u017e m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159ij\u00edt obrat. To ov\u0161em neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee TACO trade funguje v\u017edy a\u00a0bez rizika.<\/p>\n

Sta\u010d\u00ed jedin\u00fd p\u0159\u00edpad, kdy Trump opravdu necouvne, a\u00a0trhy mohou b\u00fdt nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u011b zasko\u010deny. Pr\u00e1v\u011b v\u00edkendov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du to p\u0159ipomn\u011bla velmi n\u00e1zorn\u011b. P\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed p\u0159ineslo jen kr\u00e1tkou \u00falevu, nikoliv skute\u010dn\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed. Zat\u00edm proto mezi investory p\u0159evl\u00e1d\u00e1 sp\u00ed\u0161 opatrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1v\u011br.<\/p>\n

Trump znovu uk\u00e1zal, \u017ee b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika hodin dok\u00e1\u017ee p\u0159epsat n\u00e1ladu na glob\u00e1ln\u00edch trz\u00edch. Posledn\u00ed v\u00fdvoj ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 ukazuje, \u017ee mezi obratem v\u00a0r\u00e9torice a\u00a0skute\u010dn\u00fdm urovn\u00e1n\u00edm konfliktu b\u00fdv\u00e1 \u010dasto je\u0161t\u011b velmi dlouh\u00e1 cesta.<\/p>\n

V pln\u00e9 verzi newsletteru Parket v\u017edy najdete i\u00a0souhrn nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch zpr\u00e1v z\u00a0oblasti akciov\u00fdch trh\u016f a\u00a0makroekonomick\u00fdch trend\u016f, investi\u010dn\u00ed tipy odborn\u00edk\u016f nebo novinky z\u00a0pra\u017esk\u00e9 burzy. P\u0159ihlaste se k\u00a0odb\u011bru<\/a>, aby v\u00e1m nic d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9ho neuniklo.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u010ctete uk\u00e1zku z\u00a0newsletteru Parket, ve kter\u00e9m Luk\u00e1\u0161 Vo\u017een\u00edlek p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed ty nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed novinky ze z\u00e1kulis\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00edch trh\u016f. Pokud v\u00e1s…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1757,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[412,67,68,212,1413,7825,3887,205,4130,6801],"class_list":{"0":"post-53568","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-byznys","8":"tag-akcie","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-byznys","11":"tag-donald-trump","12":"tag-financni-trhy","13":"tag-konflikt-usa-izrael-iran","14":"tag-newsletter-parket","15":"tag-ropa","16":"tag-trhy","17":"tag-zkapalneny-zemni-plyn-lng"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116397174062111705","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53568","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53568"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53568\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53568"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53568"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53568"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}