Podstatn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst nejistoty v obchodn\u00ed politice je zp\u011bt. Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed soud v p\u00e1tek zru\u0161il Trumpova recipro\u010dn\u00ed cla, kter\u00e1 byla z\u00e1kladem jeho obchodn\u00ed politiky od dubna minul\u00e9ho roku. Podle soudu prezident p\u0159ekro\u010dil sv\u00e9 pravomoci, na co\u017e americk\u00e1 administrativa okam\u017eit\u011b zareagovala uvalen\u00edm nov\u00fdch glob\u00e1ln\u00edch cel dle \u010dl\u00e1nku 122 obchodn\u00edho z\u00e1kona. Ty byly nejprve nastaveny na \u00farovn\u00ed 10 %, ale ji\u017e v sobotu je Donald Trump zv\u00fd\u0161il na 15 % s platnost\u00ed od z\u00edt\u0159ka.<\/p>\n
Podle \u010dl\u00e1nku 122 v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017ee prezident uvalit cla pouze na 150 dn\u00ed a pot\u00e9 je pot\u0159eba souhlasu Kongresu. A i podle koment\u00e1\u0159e ministra financ\u00ed Scotta Bessenta bude administrativa hledat trvalej\u0161\u00ed zp\u016fsob, jak uvalit cla. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee celn\u00ed politika z\u016fstane zdrojem volatility i v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch t\u00fddnech \u2013 ostatn\u011b vysok\u00e1 cla z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed i nad\u00e1le prioritou \u010d\u00edslo jedna pro Donald Trumpa.<\/p>\n
Mezit\u00edm ale efektivn\u00ed celn\u00ed sazba na dovozy zbo\u017e\u00ed do USA klesla ze 16 % na 13,7 %. To sice znamen\u00e1 ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed m\u00edru protekcionismu, p\u0159\u00edjmy do feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu by ale m\u011bly hrub\u00fdm odhadem klesnout o zhruba t\u0159etinu z aktu\u00e1ln\u00edch cca 30 mld. dolar\u016f m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b. Pro feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rozpo\u010det je nav\u00edc v\u00e1\u017enou hrozbou i refundace zru\u0161en\u00fdch cel. Jde a\u017e o 130 mld. dolar\u016f, o kter\u00e9 by se firmy mohly s americkou vl\u00e1dou soudit. To by d\u00e1le zv\u00fd\u0161ilo tlak na rozpo\u010det, a tedy i na r\u016fst \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb na dlouh\u00e9m konci americk\u00e9 v\u00fdnosov\u00e9 k\u0159ivky.<\/p>\n
Jak\u00e1 budou m\u00edt nov\u00e1 cla dopad na americko-evropskou obchodn\u00ed dohodu? Jeliko\u017e byla dohoda sjedn\u00e1na separ\u00e1tn\u011b od recipro\u010dn\u00edch tarif\u016f, rozhodnut\u00ed nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho soudu by se ji nem\u011blo p\u0159\u00edmo dot\u00fdkat. V platnosti z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed i cla, kter\u00e1 soud nezru\u0161il \u2013 ocel, hlin\u00edk nebo automotive. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 plat\u00ed, \u017ee Evropa byla doposud v\u016f\u010di americk\u00fdm tarif\u016fm nad o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed odoln\u00e1. Podle Kielsk\u00e9ho institutu toti\u017e 96 % n\u00e1klad\u016f vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch cel prozat\u00edm nesli ameri\u010dt\u00ed spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 a dovozci.<\/p>\n
Z pohledu investor\u016f je dobrou zpr\u00e1vou, \u017ee v Americe d\u00e1le funguje syst\u00e9m brzd a protivah, kter\u00fd omezuje pravomoci prezidenta Trumpa. Minim\u00e1ln\u011b v obchodn\u00ed politice ale bude prezident d\u00e1le testovat limity sv\u00e9 moci, co\u017e znamen\u00e1 op\u011btovn\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed nejistoty na trz\u00edch. V nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch t\u00fddnech uvid\u00edme, k jak z\u00e1sadn\u00edm zm\u011bn\u00e1m celn\u00edch sazeb dojde, a to i s ohledem na fakt, \u017ee ta zat\u00edm sv\u016fj z\u00e1kladn\u00ed c\u00edl \u2013 korekci obchodn\u00edch deficit\u016f \u2013 nepln\u00ed: v minul\u00e9m roce byl obchodn\u00ed deficit USA t\u0159et\u00ed nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v historii, kdy\u017e v meziro\u010dn\u00edm srovn\u00e1n\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nedo\u0161lo ke zlep\u0161en\u00ed.<\/p>\n
TRHY<\/p>\n
Koruna<\/p>\n
\u010cesk\u00e1 koruna zakon\u010dila minul\u00fd t\u00fdden lehk\u00fdm posunem k hranici 24,20 EUR\/CZK. Zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 obchodn\u00ed nejistota v d\u016fsledku zru\u0161en\u00ed recipro\u010dn\u00edch tarif\u016f prezidenta Trumpa (viz \u00favodn\u00edk) pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b povede k do\u010dasn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed averzi k riziku, co\u017e nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt korun\u011b po chuti. Na druhou stranu, americk\u00e1 cla v\u016f\u010di EU by se m\u011bnit nemusela, vzhledem k vyjednan\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed dohod\u011b, co\u017e by m\u011blo udr\u017eet region\u00e1ln\u00ed m\u011bnu v relativn\u00edm komfortu.<\/p>\n
V tomto t\u00fddnu budu dom\u00e1c\u00edmu makro kalend\u00e1\u0159i dominovat z\u00edt\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed konjunktur\u00e1ln\u00ed pr\u016fzkumy a st\u0159ede\u010dn\u00ed data k cen\u00e1m v\u00fdrobc\u016f. Zaj\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed mohou b\u00fdt p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 koment\u00e1\u0159e centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank\u00e9\u0159\u016f. V p\u00e1tek se pro MF Dnes vyj\u00e1d\u0159ila viceguvern\u00e9rka Zamrazilov\u00e1 ve smyslu p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch cenov\u00fdch tlak\u016f ve slu\u017eb\u00e1ch, jejich\u017e pokles je nutnou podm\u00ednkou pro p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fd pokles sazeb o 25bpd.<\/p>\n
Eurodolar<\/p>\n
Americk\u00e9mu dolaru obchodn\u00ed chaos dvakr\u00e1t moc nesv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed. Ke konci t\u00fddne rozhodnut\u00ed Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho soudu zjevn\u011b investor\u016fm zamotalo hlavy, z pohledu dolaru ho v\u0161ak zat\u00edm \u010dtou jako riziko hlub\u0161\u00edch americk\u00fdch rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdch deficit\u016f \u2013 tedy faktor pro dolar negativn\u00ed. Nov\u00e1 cla uvalen\u00e1 Trumpem mohou nav\u00edc st\u00e1t tak\u00e9 na nejist\u00fdch pr\u00e1vn\u00edch z\u00e1kladech, co\u017e pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b bude pro dolar dodate\u010dn\u00fd negativn\u00ed impuls.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Podstatn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst nejistoty v obchodn\u00ed politice je zp\u011bt. Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed soud v p\u00e1tek zru\u0161il Trumpova recipro\u010dn\u00ed cla, kter\u00e1 byla…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5497,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[3958,847,3960,3959,3957,98,99,3963,3956,258,3962,3961],"class_list":{"0":"post-5496","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-praha","8":"tag-chaos","9":"tag-cla","10":"tag-nejvyssi","11":"tag-nekonci","12":"tag-obchodni","13":"tag-prague","14":"tag-praha","15":"tag-reciprocni","16":"tag-rozbresk","17":"tag-soud","18":"tag-trumpova","19":"tag-zrusil"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5496","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5496"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5496\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5497"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5496"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5496"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5496"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}