{"id":55688,"date":"2026-04-15T13:18:12","date_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:18:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/55688\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:18:12","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:18:12","slug":"valka-o-iran-bezi-i-na-vasi-pumpe-ale-mozna-uz-jsme-z-nejhorsiho-venku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/55688\/","title":{"rendered":"V\u00e1lka o\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1n b\u011b\u017e\u00ed i\u00a0na va\u0161\u00ed pump\u011b. Ale mo\u017en\u00e1 u\u017e jsme z\u00a0nejhor\u0161\u00edho venku"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a\u00a0USA se chyst\u00e1 druh\u00e9 kolo vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, ropa se zase vrac\u00ed t\u011bsn\u011b pod sto dolar\u016f. Akcie ve sv\u011bt\u011b rostou, ceny u\u00a0\u010desk\u00fdch pump m\u00edrn\u011b klesaj\u00ed. Dnes je nafta za rovn\u00fdch 45\u00a0korun, nejlevn\u011bji od Velikonoc a\u00a0od spu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00edch strop\u016f.<\/p>\n

Bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed se pr\u016flom? Trh s\u00a0ropou se stal hlavn\u00edm boji\u0161t\u011bm cel\u00e9ho konfliktu. \u00cdr\u00e1n u\u017e t\u00fddny svou blok\u00e1dou \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b tla\u010d\u00ed ceny paliv vzh\u016fru, co\u017e Ameriku bol\u00ed a\u00a0nep\u016fjde to sn\u00e1\u0161et v\u011b\u010dn\u011b. Trump nov\u011b zkou\u0161\u00ed n\u011bco podobn\u00e9ho, kdy\u017e zastavuje tankery pluj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00a0\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f.<\/p>\n

Vedle pom\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed, kdo v\u00edc vydr\u017e\u00ed, lze ale vypozorovat pokusy, jak naj\u00edt z\u00a0konfliktu cestu ven d\u016fstojnou pro ob\u011b strany. Trump nechce \u201eTrumpovu drahotu\u201c, \u00cdr\u00e1n nem\u016f\u017ee blokovat Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv v\u011b\u010dn\u011b. <\/p>\n

V\u00edkendov\u00e9 rozhovory v\u00a0P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu sice nic navenek nep\u0159inesly, ale u\u017e p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy, co se bude prob\u00edrat v\u00a0druh\u00e9m kole a\u00a0hlavn\u011b kudy doj\u00edt ke kompromisu v\u00a0ot\u00e1zce \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho programu. Na n\u011bm americk\u00e9mu prezidentovi\u00a0\u2013\u00a0jak s\u00e1m \u0159\u00edk\u00e1\u00a0\u2013\u00a0z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed te\u010f ze v\u0161eho nejv\u00edc.<\/p>\n

Slovo \u201ekompromis\u201c se v\u00a0\u00fater\u00fd za\u010dalo objevovat v\u00a0americk\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00edch, kdy\u017e se uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee u\u017e nejde o\u00a0to\u00a0\u2013\u00a0jak d\u0159\u00edve Trump nazna\u010doval\u00a0\u2013 za\u0161lapat \u00edr\u00e1nskou schopnost v\u00fdvoje a\u00a0v\u00fdroby jadern\u00e9 bomby kompletn\u011b a\u00a0nav\u011bky do zem\u011b. Nov\u011b podle New York Times<\/a> nebo Washington Post<\/a> u\u017e je \u0159e\u010d jen o\u00a0pozastaven\u00ed na omezen\u00fd \u010das.<\/p>\n

To m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm principi\u00e1ln\u00edm posunem. Washington po\u017eaduje moratorium na 20\u00a0let, Teher\u00e1n nab\u00edz\u00ed jen p\u011bt. Rozd\u00edl je velk\u00fd, p\u011bt let \u00cdr\u00e1nci nab\u00edzeli u\u017e v\u00a0\u00fanoru p\u0159i posledn\u00edm kole jedn\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed zah\u00e1jen\u00edm bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed. Na druhou stranu i\u00a0p\u011bt let by Trump teoreticky mohl zkusit doma prodat jako klid za horizont sv\u00e9ho mand\u00e1tu\u00a0\u2013 a\u00a0tedy jako \u00fasp\u011bch.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Americk\u00fd prezident ho zoufale pot\u0159ebuje. Nejde jen o\u00a0poru\u0161en\u00ed jeho \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edho slibu, \u017ee nebude zatahovat zemi do v\u00e1lek, co\u017e proti n\u011bmu te\u010f obrac\u00ed i\u00a0skaln\u00ed MAGA influencery. Ale hlavn\u011b o\u00a0\u0161ir\u0161\u00ed\u00a0propad popularity<\/a> kv\u016fli stavu ekonomiky, kter\u00fd byl zn\u00e1t u\u017e p\u0159ed \u00fatokem na \u00cdr\u00e1n a\u00a0te\u010f v\u00a0kontextu drah\u00fdch paliv zesiluje.<\/p>\n

Tento t\u00fdden p\u0159i\u0161la informace, \u017ee spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e1 n\u00e1lada v\u00a0USA klesla v\u00a0dubnu podle indexu Michigansk\u00e9 univerzity na v\u016fbec nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed hodnotu v\u00a0historii<\/a>. Pravda, dotazov\u00e1n\u00ed respondent\u016f prob\u00edhalo je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm povelikono\u010dn\u00edho p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. Ale m\u00e1-li benzin v\u00a0dubnu st\u00e1t v\u00a0USA v\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011bru 4,30\u00a0dolaru za galon<\/a>, co\u017e je ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed odhad z\u00a0feder\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b, tak to je p\u0159ed volbami do Kongresu t\u011b\u017eko p\u0159ijateln\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148.<\/p>\n

Trump je v\u00edc ne\u017e Babi\u0161<\/p>\n

Je-li n\u011bkde skute\u010dn\u00e1 cenov\u00e1 pojistka pro \u010desk\u00e9 \u0159idi\u010de, tak ne v\u00a0cenov\u00fdch stropech zaveden\u00fdch Babi\u0161ovou vl\u00e1dou. Ale v\u00a0USA. Trump \u0159e\u0161\u00ed tot\u00e9\u017e, tak\u00e9 nechce odpor voli\u010d\u016f. Kdo tou\u017e\u00ed tankovat levn\u011b, mus\u00ed v\u011b\u0159it, \u017ee Trump \u010del\u00ed stejn\u00e9 bolesti a\u00a0nen\u00ed politick\u00fdm sebevrahem.<\/p>\n

S\u00e1z\u00ed na to i\u00a0Teher\u00e1n. \u201eU\u017e\u00edvejte si dne\u0161n\u00ed ceny. Brzy se v\u00e1m bude st\u00fdskat po benzinu za \u010dty\u0159i nebo p\u011bt dolar\u016f,\u201c varoval Ameri\u010dany na s\u00edti X \u0161\u00e9f \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch vyjednava\u010d\u016f Mohammad B\u00e1gher Gh\u00e1lib\u00e1f v\u00a0reakci na Trump\u016fv pl\u00e1n blokovat od pond\u011bl\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv pro lod\u011b putuj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Tento p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fd krok\u00a0\u2013\u00a0kontrastuj\u00edc\u00ed s\u00a0p\u0159edchoz\u00edm odblokov\u00e1n\u00edm u\u017e vyskladn\u011bn\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy v\u00a0tankerech na mo\u0159i\u00a0\u2013\u00a0m\u00e1 protivn\u00edka p\u0159ipravit o\u00a0hlavn\u00ed zdroj p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f. Ale cen\u00e1m paliv v\u00a0USA ani jinde to tak\u00e9 moc nepom\u016f\u017ee. A\u00a0jak se opakovan\u011b upozor\u0148uje u\u017e od za\u010d\u00e1tku konfliktu, tak \u00cdr\u00e1n sice mo\u017en\u00e1 \u010del\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed arm\u00e1d\u011b sv\u011bta, m\u00e1 ov\u0161em na sv\u00e9 stran\u011b asymetrii bolesti.<\/p>\n

Diktatura otu\u017eil\u00e1 dek\u00e1dami sankc\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee br\u00e1t ekonomick\u00fd propad jako norm\u00e1ln\u00ed provozn\u00ed stav. Naopak pro demokratick\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy na Z\u00e1pad\u011b jsou ceny pohonn\u00fdch hmot nad kritickou hranic\u00ed existen\u010dn\u00ed politickou hrozbou. \u010cesko nebo Polsko asi nikdo ne\u0159e\u0161\u00ed, ale kdy\u017e u\u017e povoluje i\u00a0N\u011bmecko nebo Francie ve smyslu poklesu dan\u00ed a\u00a0zav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed kompenza\u010dn\u00edch motoristick\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvk\u016f, Teher\u00e1n dost\u00e1v\u00e1 jasn\u00fd vzkaz\u00a0\u2013\u00a0jeho strategie zab\u00edr\u00e1. <\/p>\n

Bude-li dohoda, co pak? <\/p>\n

Trump mluv\u00ed o\u00a0tom, \u017ee ajatoll\u00e1hov\u00e9 u\u017e maj\u00ed v\u00e1lky dost. Ale s\u00a0n\u00edm je to stejn\u00e9. Motivace k\u00a0dohod\u011b na jeho stran\u011b zjevn\u011b existuje. Jinou v\u011bc\u00ed je, \u017ee vzd\u00e1lenost mezi \u201ekone\u010dn\u011b jedn\u00e1me\u201c a \u201etankujeme levn\u011b\u201c m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt je\u0161t\u011b obrovsk\u00e1.<\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd program p\u0159edstavuje komplikovanou v\u011bc, kter\u00e1 se prob\u00edr\u00e1 cel\u00e9 dek\u00e1dy. Washington nem\u016f\u017ee podepsat dohodu, kter\u00e1 by vypadala jako kapitulace. A\u00a0Teher\u00e1n se chce vyhnout pon\u00ed\u017een\u00ed. Prostor pro kompromis existuje,\u00a0ale jeho domluven\u00ed bude vy\u017eadovat trp\u011blivost, obratnost a\u00a0\u010das, co\u017e se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt p\u0159i jedn\u00e1n\u00edch s\u00a0impulzivn\u00edm \u0161\u00e9fem B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu jako v\u00fdrazn\u011b nedostatkov\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc\u00a0i\u00a0kdyby vznikla oboustrann\u011b p\u0159ijateln\u00e1 dohoda t\u0159eba hned p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed t\u00fdden, n\u00e1vrat k\u00a0norm\u00e1lu se rozhodn\u011b nedostav\u00ed obratem. Pro lep\u0161\u00ed pochopen\u00ed je toti\u017e t\u0159eba vn\u00edmat, z\u00a0jak hlubok\u00e9ho dna se sv\u011bt mus\u00ed nejd\u0159\u00edv vyhrabat.<\/p>\n

Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed energetick\u00e1 agentura IEA ve sv\u00e9m \u010derstv\u011b vydan\u00e9m shrnut\u00ed situace p\u00ed\u0161e, \u017ee v\u00a0b\u0159eznu p\u0159\u00edsun ropy na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trh klesl o\u00a0v\u00edc ne\u017e desetinu. A\u00a0\u017ee \u0161lo o \u201enejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdpadek v\u00a0historii\u201c<\/a>. Fyzick\u00e1 obnova t\u011b\u017eby, odminov\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u016flivu, n\u00e1vrat poji\u0161\u0165oven k\u00a0norm\u00e1ln\u00edm sazb\u00e1m pro tankery\u00a0\u2013 to v\u0161e dohromady potrv\u00e1 sp\u00ed\u0161 m\u011bs\u00edce ne\u017e dny.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed spot\u0159eba ropy m\u00e1 letos klesnout podle EIA o\u00a080\u00a0tis\u00edc barel\u016f denn\u011b, ve\u00a0druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed se m\u016f\u017ee dostat dokonce v\u016fbec nejn\u00ed\u017e od pandemie covidu. Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00fd fond v\u00a0\u00fater\u00fd kv\u016fli v\u00e1lce v\u00a0Z\u00e1livu sn\u00ed\u017eil odhad leto\u0161n\u00edho r\u016fstu glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiky\u00a0\u2013\u00a0sice jen ze\u00a03,3\u00a0na 3,1\u00a0procenta, ale s\u00a0varov\u00e1n\u00edm, \u017ee u\u017e te\u010f m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt aktualizace zastaral\u00e1<\/a> a\u00a0hroz\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161 napln\u011bn\u00ed skeptick\u00e9ho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e s\u00a0r\u016fstem jen 2,5\u00a0procenta.<\/p>\n

P\u00e1r promile sem, nebo tam zn\u00ed jako technik\u00e1lie, ale r\u016fst pod t\u0159i procenta by byl tak\u00e9 nejslab\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdsledkem od covidu. Nav\u00edc jsou tu i\u00a0stra\u0161ideln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy: t\u0159eba \u017ee p\u0159\u00edjmy Ruska z\u00a0prodeje ropy, tedy hlavn\u00ed zdroj financ\u00ed pro v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b, se v\u00a0b\u0159eznu d\u00edky r\u016fstu cen skoro zdvojn\u00e1sobily<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Jaro a\u00a0l\u00e9to s\u00a0drahou ropou\u00a0\u2013 a\u00a0v\u0161emi jej\u00edmi d\u016fsledky\u00a0\u2013\u00a0se st\u00e1le jev\u00ed jako nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159. Ale poprv\u00e9 od za\u010d\u00e1tku krize plat\u00ed, \u017ee podzim by mohl vypadat jinak. Pokud se strany skute\u010dn\u011b dohodnou a\u00a0dohoda vydr\u017e\u00ed.<\/p>\n

To jsou dv\u011b velk\u00e1 \u201epokud\u201c. Ale aspo\u0148 jsou na stole.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a\u00a0USA se chyst\u00e1 druh\u00e9 kolo vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, ropa se zase vrac\u00ed t\u011bsn\u011b pod sto dolar\u016f. Akcie ve…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":55689,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[2621,9854,212,17,21,3432,7825,2622,16,205,11371,18,19,22,20],"class_list":{"0":"post-55688","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-zpravy","8":"tag-benzin","9":"tag-cena-pohonnych-hmot","10":"tag-donald-trump","11":"tag-headlines","12":"tag-hlavni-udalosti","13":"tag-iransky-jaderny-program","14":"tag-konflikt-usa-izrael-iran","15":"tag-nafta","16":"tag-news","17":"tag-ropa","18":"tag-tankovani","19":"tag-top-news","20":"tag-top-stories","21":"tag-udalosti-dne","22":"tag-zpravy"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116408923102084123","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55688","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55688"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55688\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/55689"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55688"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55688"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55688"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}