{"id":56285,"date":"2026-04-16T05:46:11","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T05:46:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/56285\/"},"modified":"2026-04-16T05:46:11","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T05:46:11","slug":"diplomacie-uklidnuje-energeticke-trhy-cena-plynu-i-ropy-zacala-klesat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/56285\/","title":{"rendered":"Diplomacie uklid\u0148uje energetick\u00e9 trhy. Cena plynu i\u00a0ropy za\u010dala klesat"},"content":{"rendered":"

Energetick\u00e9 trhy v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee se m\u016f\u017ee situace na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b do jednoho \u010di dvou m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f uklidnit. Ceny energi\u00ed energetick\u00fdch surovin dov\u00e1\u017een\u00fdch z\u00a0tohoto regionu reagovaly na diplomatick\u00e9 snahy stran konfliktu o\u00a0dohodou. Cena ropy klesla pod 100\u00a0dolar\u016f za barel, uklid\u0148uje se i\u00a0cena plynu. P\u0159esto\u017ee se plyn na nizozemsk\u00e9m virtu\u00e1ln\u00edm uzlu TTF s\u00a0dod\u00e1vkou v\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm m\u011bs\u00edci je\u0161t\u011b v\u00a0b\u0159eznu pohyboval nad 60\u00a0eury, nyn\u00ed stoj\u00ed mezi 40\u00a0a\u00a045\u00a0eury za megawatthodinu (MWh).<\/p>\n

\u201eVypad\u00e1 nad\u011bjn\u011b, kdy\u017e dv\u011b strany, kter\u00e9 se do sebe pustily, usednou k\u00a0jednac\u00edmu stolu. Plyn st\u00e1l p\u0159es 60\u00a0eur, te\u010f stoj\u00ed kolem 45\u00a0eur za MWh. Na to, jak jsou vydrancovan\u00e9 z\u00e1sobn\u00edky, je to odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed cena,\u201c komentuje v\u00fdvoj Ji\u0159\u00ed Gavor, analytik konzulta\u010dn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti ENA.<\/p>\n

Tato cena je sice vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch zhruba 30\u00a0eur za MWh, ale st\u00e1le je hluboko pod \u00farovn\u011bmi z\u00a0doby energetick\u00e9 krize v\u00a0roce 2022, kdy se MWh obchodovala i\u00a0za v\u00edce ne\u017e 300\u00a0eur. Takov\u00e1 situace ale podle Gavora nyn\u00ed nehroz\u00ed.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201eObchodn\u011b vid\u00edm v\u00edc d\u016fvod\u016f, pro\u010d by se strany m\u011bly dohodnout. Nemalujeme a\u00a0nep\u0159ipravujeme sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e na to, \u017ee by ve druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b roku m\u011bla p\u0159ij\u00edt n\u011bjak\u00e1 katastrofa,\u201c popisuje z\u00e1stupce \u0159editele dodavatele energi\u00ed Yello Viktor Proch\u00e1zka.<\/p>\n

Obchodn\u00edci se shoduj\u00ed na tom, \u017ee budouc\u00ed v\u00fdvoj na velkoobchodn\u00edm trhu a\u00a0jeho n\u00e1sledn\u00fd dopad na ceny pro koncov\u00e9 z\u00e1kazn\u00edky z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed na tom, jak dlouho konflikt a\u00a0omezen\u00ed dod\u00e1vek p\u0159es zablokovan\u00fd pr\u016fliv potrvaj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Foto: Ren\u00e9 Matou\u0161, Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy<\/p>\n

P\u0159es Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv putovala t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u010dtvrtina produkce katarsk\u00e9ho LNG.<\/p>\n

Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv je kl\u00ed\u010dovou tepnou pro v\u00fdvoz zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu (LNG) z\u00a0Kataru a\u00a0Spojen\u00fdch arabsk\u00fdch emir\u00e1t\u016f. D\u00e9lka uzav\u0159en\u00ed \u00fa\u017einy rozhodne o\u00a0tom, kam ceny plynu mohou vystoupat a\u00a0kdy se mohou uklidnit.<\/p>\n

In\u017een\u00fdrsko-poradensk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost EGU po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 p\u0159i dvou- a\u017e t\u0159\u00edm\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edm v\u00fdpadku dod\u00e1vek, \u017ee se pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 cena pro rok 2026\u00a0\u00a0bude dr\u017eet p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b na 41\u00a0eurech za MWh a\u00a0k norm\u00e1lu by se m\u011bla vr\u00e1tit v\u00a0roce 2027.<\/p>\n

Pokud by v\u0161ak blok\u00e1da trvala do podzimu, pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 cena roku 2026\u00a0by vzrostla na 57\u00a0eur za MWh a\u00a0pod hranici 40\u00a0eur za MWh by se trh vr\u00e1til a\u017e v\u00a0roce 2028.\u00a0K\u00a0pesimistick\u00e9mu sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i by pak mohlo doj\u00edt v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee by blok\u00e1da p\u0159etrv\u00e1vala je\u0161t\u011b v\u00a0prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku. Cena by se tak mohla pohybovat kolem 78\u00a0eur za MWh, ale mohla by kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b dosahovat i\u00a0\u0161pi\u010dek nad 100\u00a0eury.<\/p>\n

Jak\u00e1koli varianta v\u00fdvoje konfliktu indikuje komplikace spojen\u00e9 s\u00a0leto\u0161n\u00edm vtl\u00e1\u010den\u00edm plynu do z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016f. \u201ePokud se z\u00e1soby nedostanou ani na 80\u00a0procent napln\u011bnosti ke konci listopadu, bude se cenov\u00fd pokles realizovat v\u00a0roce 2027\u00a0pomaleji a\u00a0tak\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed topn\u00e1 sezona m\u016f\u017ee \u010delit podobn\u00e9mu probl\u00e9mu. Vtl\u00e1\u010den\u00ed se toti\u017e nevypl\u00e1c\u00ed, pokud je na trhu vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed cena plynu v\u00a0letn\u00ed sezon\u011b ne\u017e v\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed zimn\u00ed sezon\u011b,\u201c popisuje Michal Koc\u016frek, projektov\u00fd \u0159editel EGU.<\/p>\n

Kolik zaplat\u00ed odb\u011bratel\u00e9<\/p>\n

\u201eZa p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee ceny na velkoobchodn\u00edch trz\u00edch nevylet\u00ed vzh\u016fru o\u00a0des\u00edtky eur za megawatthodinu, bude dopad na n\u00e1kupn\u00ed ceny zemn\u00edho plynu minim\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0\u2013 v\u00a0\u0159\u00e1du desetikorun za MWh. Plat\u00ed to ale pouze u\u00a0dodavatel\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed zemn\u00ed plyn konzervativn\u011b dop\u0159edn\u00fdmi n\u00e1kupy,\u201c popisuje marketingov\u00fd \u0159editel dodavatele energi\u00ed Centropol Ji\u0159\u00ed Matou\u0161ek.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed dodavatel\u00e9 do sv\u00fdch cen\u00edk\u016f n\u00e1r\u016fst na velkoobchodn\u00edm trhu neprom\u00edtli a\u00a0zat\u00edm se k\u00a0tomu nechystaj\u00ed. \u201eZjednodu\u0161en\u011b \u0159e\u0161eno, aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed dopad dle prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edho v\u00fdvoje m\u016f\u017ee u\u00a0n\u00e1kupn\u011b zodpov\u011bdn\u00fdch dodavatel\u016f p\u0159edstavovat r\u016fst kolem stokoruny na megawatthodinu u\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 n\u00e1kupn\u00ed ceny, n\u011bkde m\u00e9n\u011b, n\u011bkde v\u00edce,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Matou\u0161ek.<\/p>\n

I kdyby se konflikt prot\u00e1hl do druh\u00e9 poloviny roku, podle Matou\u0161ka se odraz\u00ed v\u00a0cen\u00edc\u00edch dodavatel\u016f k\u00a0za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2027\u00a0minim\u00e1ln\u011b. Odb\u011bratel\u00e9, kter\u00fdm v\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku skon\u010d\u00ed fixace, to u\u017e poc\u00edt\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u201eT\u011bmto spot\u0159ebitel\u016fm konflikt na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b nesn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed koncov\u00e9 ceny oproti cen\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 m\u011bly fixovan\u00e9. A\u00a0v roce 2027\u00a0bude op\u011bt v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 uzav\u00edrat dvoulet\u00e9 fixace z\u00a0d\u016fvodu ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ceny zemn\u00edho plynu se spot\u0159ebou v\u00a0roce 2028,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Matou\u0161ek.<\/p>\n

Energie pro sv\u00e9 z\u00e1kazn\u00edky na leto\u0161n\u00ed rok maj\u00ed zaveden\u00ed dodavatel\u00e9 \u010dasto zaji\u0161t\u011bny a\u00a0s p\u0159edstihem maj\u00ed nakoupeno i\u00a0na \u010d\u00e1st p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201eO\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m, \u017ee n\u011bjak\u00fd m\u00edrn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst cen se odehraje v\u0161ude, nez\u016fstane to jen u\u00a0jednor\u00e1zov\u00e9ho drobn\u00e9ho nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se odehr\u00e1lo ned\u00e1vno. Na druhou stranu p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok u\u017e se za\u010dne nakupovat v\u00edc na rok 2028\u00a0a\u00a02029\u00a0a\u00a0zat\u00edm na t\u011bchto trz\u00edch nevid\u00edme \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd pesimismus,\u201c popisuje Proch\u00e1zka.<\/p>\n

Probl\u00e9my s\u00a0dod\u00e1vkami bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00edho LNG by se mohly p\u0159el\u00edt i\u00a0za horizont skon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky. \u00datoky toti\u017e po\u0161kodily za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na produkci LNG v\u00a0Kataru a\u00a0zprovozn\u011bn\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee trvat t\u0159i a\u017e p\u011bt let. Podle Gavora je tento odhad p\u0159ehnan\u00fd a\u00a0oprava se m\u016f\u017ee dokon\u010dit d\u0159\u00edv.<\/p>\n

Za dv\u011b vy\u0159azen\u00e9 katarsk\u00e9 linky se u\u017e na\u0161la n\u00e1hrada. \u201eB\u011bhem konfliktu nab\u011bhly t\u0159i nov\u00e9 zkapal\u0148ovac\u00ed linky v\u00a0USA. Nov\u00e1 kapacita by mohla nahradit katarsk\u00fd v\u00fdpadek,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Gavor.<\/p>\n

V pr\u016fb\u011bhu roku 2026\u00a0se podle n\u011bj p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 n\u00e1r\u016fst exportn\u00ed kapacity LNG ve sv\u011bt\u011b a\u00a0v roce 2027\u00a0to bude pokra\u010dovat. \u201eSamotn\u00fd katarsk\u00fd v\u00fdpadek nebude tak fat\u00e1ln\u00ed, pokud neporoste popt\u00e1vka,\u201c uvedl Gavor.<\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zkou je, jak se bude da\u0159it plnit \u010desk\u00e9 a\u00a0evropsk\u00e9 plynov\u00e9 z\u00e1sobn\u00edky. Nyn\u00ed jsou polopr\u00e1zdn\u00e9 a\u00a0touto dobou v\u011bt\u0161inou za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 vtl\u00e1\u010den\u00ed plynu na p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed sezonu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Energetick\u00e9 trhy v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee se m\u016f\u017ee situace na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b do jednoho \u010di dvou m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f uklidnit. Ceny energi\u00ed…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":32121,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[67,68,1705,6527,7825,492,6801],"class_list":{"0":"post-56285","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-byznys","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-byznys","10":"tag-ceny-energii","11":"tag-katar","12":"tag-konflikt-usa-izrael-iran","13":"tag-plyn","14":"tag-zkapalneny-zemni-plyn-lng"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116412808199832064","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56285","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56285"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56285\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32121"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56285"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56285"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56285"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}