{"id":56639,"date":"2026-04-16T11:53:11","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T11:53:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/56639\/"},"modified":"2026-04-16T11:53:11","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T11:53:11","slug":"ceka-se-znatelna-ziskova-akcelerace-trh-rotoval-k-defenzive-a-energetice-ceni-se-hodnotove-akcie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/56639\/","title":{"rendered":"\u010cek\u00e1 se znateln\u00e1 ziskov\u00e1 akcelerace, trh rotoval k defenziv\u011b a energetice, cen\u00ed se hodnotov\u00e9 akcie"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Kam se se sv\u00fdmi valuacemi dostaly b\u011bhem posledn\u00edch t\u00fddn\u016f sektory na americk\u00e9m trhu? Pot\u00e9, co jsme se zde v podobn\u00e9m duchu v\u011bnovali trh\u016fm sv\u011btov\u00fdm, pod\u00edv\u00e1me se pod povrch toho americk\u00e9ho. Mimo jin\u00e9 uvid\u00edme, \u017ee nejv\u00edce mimo historick\u00e1 m\u011b\u0159\u00edtka je nyn\u00ed energetika. A sm\u011ble j\u00ed sekunduje  <a class=\"keyword\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patria.cz\/ekonomika\/ukazatel\/prumysl.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">pr\u016fmysl<\/a>. K tomu v\u0161emu p\u0159id\u00e1m p\u00e1r \u00favah a koment\u00e1\u0159\u016f a zam\u011b\u0159\u00edme se i na o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdvoje zisk\u016f na jednotliv\u00fdch americk\u00fdch trz\u00edch.\u00a0 \u00a0<br \/>Podot\u00fdk\u00e1m, \u017ee graf je z minul\u00e9ho t\u00fddne, tak\u017ee dnes budou valuace v pr\u016fm\u011bru v\u00fd\u0161e \u2013 index S&amp;P  500 jen v pond\u011bl\u00ed a v \u00fater\u00fd znateln\u011b pos\u00edlil. I tak ale obr\u00e1zek podle mne st\u00e1le ukazuje, co se d\u011bje pod agreg\u00e1tn\u00ed hladinou a jak\u00e9 jsou relativn\u00ed pozice sektor\u016f. Vedle t\u011bch dvou v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00fdch bych konkr\u00e9tn\u011b pouk\u00e1zal na to, \u017ee odv\u011btv\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 spot\u0159eby dos\u00e1hlo na PE nad 19. Co\u017e je na horn\u00ed hranici vyzna\u010den\u00e9ho rozp\u011bt\u00ed a tak\u00e9 druh\u00e9 nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed PE u sektor\u016f vyzna\u010den\u00fdch v grafu. M\u016f\u017ee j\u00edt o odraz toho, \u017ee investo\u0159i v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b preferovali defenzivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed odv\u011btv\u00ed. P\u0159esn\u011bji \u0159e\u010deno defenzivn\u00ed a z\u00e1rove\u0148 ta, kter\u00e1 ne\u010del\u00ed struktur\u00e1ln\u00edm probl\u00e9m\u016fm (jako zdravotn\u00ed p\u00e9\u010de, nebo alespo\u0148 jej\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st).\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Nab\u00edz\u00ed se v t\u00e9to souvislosti ot\u00e1zka, do kdy je defenzivn\u00ed sektor skute\u010dn\u011b defenzivn\u00ed \u2013 kdy jsou u n\u011bj ceny a valuace d\u00edky z\u00e1jmu o bezpe\u010d\u00ed tak vysoko, \u017ee jde vlastn\u011b o sektor nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd. Ned\u00e1vno jsem tu v podobn\u00e9m duchu rozv\u00edjel jednu \u00favahu o zlatu. Jeho posledn\u00ed korekce b\u00fdvala vysv\u011btlov\u00e1na tak, \u017ee se na n\u011bm vyb\u00edraly zisky a slou\u017eilo jako zdroj likvidity v dob\u011b, kdy se investo\u0159i stahovali do bezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch aktiv.  <a class=\"keyword\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patria.cz\/komodity\/kov\/AU\/zlato.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Zlato<\/a> je ale obecn\u011b pova\u017eov\u00e1no za jedno z nejbezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch aktiv a tud\u00ed\u017e by z definice nem\u011blo v podobn\u00fdch situac\u00edch slou\u017eit jako zdroj likvidity. Skloubit by se to teoreticky dalo s t\u00edm, \u017ee r\u016fst jeho ceny byl p\u0159edt\u00edm tak masivn\u00ed a prudk\u00fd, \u017ee ud\u011blal ze  <a class=\"keyword\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patria.cz\/komodity\/kov\/AU\/zlato.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">zlata<\/a> aktivum rizikov\u00e9. U akci\u00ed se p\u0159itom takov\u00e1 teze d\u00e1 prezentovat jasn\u011bji, proto\u017ee maj\u00ed fundament. jeho \u201elight\u201c verz\u00ed jsou zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 valuace.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"S1\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/72eb7c4e-07ab-48f2-b1d5-ad31c1cb658b.jpeg\" \/><br \/>Zdroj: X<\/p>\n<p>V\u0161imn\u011bme si, \u017ee IT sektor se nyn\u00ed obchoduje s n\u00e1sobky podobn\u00fdmi cel\u00e9mu trhu, kter\u00fd je podle grafu mezi 18 \u2013 19 a nyn\u00ed to bude tedy je\u0161t\u011b v\u00fd\u0161e. Ned\u00e1vno jsem tu p\u0159itom ukazoval dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00ed historii cel\u00e9ho trhu a p\u0159ipomenu, \u017ee tyto sou\u010dasn\u00e9 valua\u010dn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b nelze v tomto kontextu pova\u017eovat za n\u011bco um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00e9ho. I s ohledem na to, \u017ee v\u00fdnosy desetilet\u00fdch vl\u00e1dn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f jsou u 4,3 % a b\u011bhem posledn\u00edch 20 let byly nemalou dobu znateln\u011b n\u00ed\u017ee.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>V grafu toho vid\u00edme samoz\u0159ejm\u011b mnohem v\u00edce: Hodnotov\u00e9 akcie byly i p\u0159ed rally posledn\u00edch dvou dn\u016f v\u00fdrazn\u011b nad sv\u00fdm valua\u010dn\u00edm standardem, finan\u010dn\u00ed sektor byl cca na medi\u00e1nu sv\u00e9ho historick\u00e9ho PE, atd. J\u00e1 bych je\u0161t\u011b cht\u011bl p\u0159idat n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed graf ve kter\u00e9m GS ukazuje historick\u00fd v\u00fdvoj ziskovosti na jednotliv\u00fdch americk\u00fdch trz\u00edch a v\u00fdvoj o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"s2\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/3de849d9-1b08-4c27-9325-e280bf1ba5a8.jpeg\" \/><br \/>Zdroj: X<\/p>\n<p>Podle pomysln\u00e9ho konsenzu by tedy m\u011blo doj\u00edt k pom\u011brn\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00e9 leto\u0161n\u00ed ziskov\u00e9 akceleraci. Ta by p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok m\u011bla ubrat na s\u00edle, ale zisky by st\u00e1le m\u011bly r\u016fst siln\u00fdm tempem. Pro kontext p\u0159ipomenu, \u017ee dlouhodob\u00fd standard pro r\u016fst zisk\u016f u indexu S&amp;P  500 je kolem 6 \u2013 7 %. Pro leto\u0161n\u00ed a p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok jsou tedy o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed nastavena na cca trojn\u00e1sobku. Ona \u010d\u00edsla by p\u0159itom m\u011bla b\u00fdt odrazem cyklick\u00fdch a struktur\u00e1ln\u00edch faktor\u016f s t\u00edm, \u017ee ty druh\u00e9 by m\u011bly hr\u00e1t nemalou roli kv\u016fli nov\u00fdm technologi\u00edm a v\u0161emu, co se od nich \u010dek\u00e1.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>V t\u00e9to souvislosti se mluv\u00ed jednak o celkov\u00e9m r\u016fstu zisk\u016f, ale st\u00e1le v\u00edce i o jejich p\u0159erozd\u011blov\u00e1n\u00ed. T\u00fdk\u00e1 to se t\u0159eba tolik diskutovan\u00e9ho softwaru. Tedy sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, v n\u011bm\u017e by firm\u00e1m v tomto odv\u011btv\u00ed jako celku znateln\u011b klesly zisky kv\u016fli tomu, \u017ee \u010d\u00e1st jejich pr\u00e1ce by p\u0159evzala um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence. Zisky \u201etradi\u010dn\u00edch\u201c softwarov\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed by se tak mohly z \u010d\u00e1sti p\u0159esunout k firm\u00e1m nab\u00edzej\u00edc\u00edm AI schopnou poskytovat vhodnou alternativu. A tak\u00e9 sm\u011brem ke klient\u016fm tradi\u010dn\u00edch softwarov\u00fdch firem. Mimochodem velk\u00fd potenci\u00e1l m\u00e1 podle n\u011bkter\u00fdch n\u00e1zor\u016f AI i u bank. Ale podle valuac\u00ed (viz prvn\u00ed graf) to nen\u00ed v tomto odv\u011btv\u00ed nyn\u00ed rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed faktor.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Kam se se sv\u00fdmi valuacemi dostaly b\u011bhem posledn\u00edch t\u00fddn\u016f sektory na americk\u00e9m trhu? Pot\u00e9, co jsme se zde&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":56640,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[20086,412,67,68,20083,20090,20088,20089,20091,20087,62,20085,20084],"class_list":{"0":"post-56639","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-byznys","8":"tag-akcelerace","9":"tag-akcie","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-byznys","12":"tag-ceka","13":"tag-ceni","14":"tag-defenzive","15":"tag-energetice","16":"tag-hodnotove","17":"tag-rotoval","18":"tag-trh","19":"tag-ziskova","20":"tag-znatelna"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116414251398165944","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56639","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56639"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56639\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56640"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56639"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56639"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56639"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}