{"id":57246,"date":"2026-04-16T23:23:10","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T23:23:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/57246\/"},"modified":"2026-04-16T23:23:10","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T23:23:10","slug":"konflikt-v-iranu-se-naplno-propise-do-rustu-inflace-v-cesku-ovlivni-to-statni-dluhopisy-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/57246\/","title":{"rendered":"Konflikt v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu\u00a0se naplno prop\u00ed\u0161e do r\u016fstu inflace v \u010cesku. Ovlivn\u00ed to st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy"},"content":{"rendered":"

R\u016fst cen zp\u016fsoben\u00fd v\u00e1lkou v \u00cdr\u00e1nu pos\u00edl\u00e1 chystanou novou emisi Dluhopis\u016f republiky na nejistou plavbu. Riskuje st\u00e1tn\u00ed kasa, j\u00ed\u017e se toto l\u00edbiv\u00e9 politick\u00e9 gesto vl\u00e1dy velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nevyplat\u00ed. Oproti tomu ob\u010dan\u00e9 z\u00edskaj\u00ed pro sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze bezpe\u010dnou ochranu p\u0159ed infla\u010dn\u00edmi vlnami.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Nakolik bude investice do bond\u016f v\u00fdhodn\u00e1, se uk\u00e1\u017ee u\u017e brzy. Podle informac\u00ed e15 m\u00e1 ministryn\u011b financ\u00ed Alena Schillerov\u00e1<\/a> (ANO) v polovin\u011b kv\u011btna zve\u0159ejnit \u00farokov\u00e9 podm\u00ednky a celkov\u00fd objem p\u016fj\u010dky. Tyto kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 parametry resort nad\u00e1le lad\u00ed. Dluhopisy pak hodl\u00e1 nab\u00eddnout dom\u00e1cnostem do za\u010d\u00e1tku pr\u00e1zdnin.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ceny d\u00e1l porostou<\/p>\n

Meziro\u010dn\u00ed zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed cen minul\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc zrychlilo z 1,4 procenta na 1,9 procenta, hlavn\u00edmi d\u016fvody byly pohonn\u00e9 hmoty a doprava. Ceny paliv a maziv mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b stouply o 19,4 procenta a p\u0159e\u0161ly z \u00fanorov\u00e9ho poklesu o 8,4 procenta do b\u0159eznov\u00e9ho r\u016fstu o 13,1 procenta.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Konflikt v \u00cdr\u00e1nu se p\u0159itom je\u0161t\u011b nestihl do inflace pln\u011b propsat, upozor\u0148uj\u00ed analytici. O\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee se naplno projev\u00ed a\u017e tento m\u011bs\u00edc, a pokud v\u00e1lka rychle neskon\u010d\u00ed, tak i v dal\u0161\u00edm obdob\u00ed. Zdra\u017eit m\u016f\u017ee zemn\u00ed plyn, elekt\u0159ina nebo hnojiva, co\u017e by se odrazilo v cen\u011b potravin.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201eSamotn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka dluhopisy nezdra\u017e\u00ed, zap\u0159\u00ed\u010din\u00ed to a\u017e jej\u00ed dopad na inflaci, \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby a po\u017eadovan\u00fd v\u00fdnos investor\u016f,\u201c uv\u00e1d\u00ed zakl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed partner skupiny Talers Zden\u011bk Mikul\u00e1\u0161.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"Sv\u011bt<\/a>Sv\u011bt o n\u011bco bl\u00ed\u017e finan\u010dn\u00edmu infarktu? Skokov\u011b dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed dluhy tr\u00e1p\u00ed i Polsko<\/a><\/p>\n

\u017de pro st\u00e1t nebudou p\u0159ipravovan\u00e9 dluhopisy nijak v\u00fdhodn\u00e9, je p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dena hlavn\u00ed ekonomka Raiffeisenbank Helena Horsk\u00e1. Z pohledu n\u00e1klad\u016f st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhu je podle n\u00ed retailov\u00e1 emise kv\u016fli obvykl\u00e9 pr\u00e9mii a vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm transak\u010dn\u00edm n\u00e1klad\u016fm, kter\u00e9 zahrnuj\u00ed v\u00fdvoj nov\u00e9 aplikace pro prodej bond\u016f, jejich distribuci a spr\u00e1vu emise, v\u017edy dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201eVzhledem k n\u00edzk\u00e9mu pod\u00edlu na celkov\u00e9m dluhu ale obsluhu st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhu v\u00fdrazn\u011b nezdra\u017e\u00ed. Ta i tak poroste, a to exponenci\u00e1ln\u011b nad leto\u0161n\u00edch 110 miliard korun ze 40 miliard v roce 2020,\u201c dod\u00e1v\u00e1 Horsk\u00e1. \u201eNe\u017e o dodr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed principu \u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159e jde v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Dluhopis\u016f republiky jen o sladk\u00e9 gesto pro ob\u010dany,\u201c m\u00edn\u00ed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

V\u00fdhody pro lidi i st\u00e1t<\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd konflikt nav\u00edc v\u00fdhodnost bond\u016f pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed, co\u017e p\u0159il\u00e1k\u00e1 v\u00edce drobn\u00fdch investor\u016f. Jejich z\u00e1jem tak\u00e9 pos\u00edl\u00ed obdob\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 nejistoty a obavy z n\u00e1r\u016fstu inflace. To nahraje Schillerov\u00e9, jej\u00ed\u017e z\u00e1m\u011br tak bude korunov\u00e1n \u00fasp\u011bchem.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed ekonom spole\u010dnosti Investika V\u00edt Hradil potvrzuje, \u017ee v\u00e1lka moment\u00e1ln\u011b tla\u010d\u00ed v\u00fdnosy dluhopis\u016f pro institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed investory nahoru, a pokud bude resort financ\u00ed usilovat o to, aby byl v r\u00e1mci trhu konkurenceschopn\u00fd, bude muset tak\u00e9 nab\u00eddnout v\u00edce.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201eTo je nicm\u00e9n\u011b b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 tr\u017en\u00ed riziko a nelze to ch\u00e1pat jako chybu emitenta. Trh v ka\u017ed\u00e9m okam\u017eiku nejl\u00e9pe vyhodnocuje, jak cenn\u00fd dluh je, a v\u017edy existuje mo\u017enost, \u017ee n\u00e1sledn\u011b v\u00fdnosy zam\u00ed\u0159\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b v\u00fd\u0161e, a tud\u00ed\u017e \u201aprod\u011bl\u00e1\u2018 v\u011b\u0159itel, nebo naopak n\u00ed\u017ee, a \u201aprod\u011bl\u00e1\u2018 dlu\u017en\u00edk,\u201c p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 Hradil.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Horsk\u00e1 je p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dena, \u017ee retailov\u00e9 dluhopisy budou podobn\u011b jako v minulosti velmi atraktivn\u00ed a n\u00edzkorizikovou alternativou v\u016f\u010di b\u011b\u017en\u00fdm spo\u0159ic\u00edm a investi\u010dn\u00edm instrument\u016fm. Nab\u00eddnou podle n\u00ed zcela jist\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e tr\u017en\u00ed v\u00fdnos. \u201eBudou nab\u00edzeny s pr\u00e9mi\u00ed, s jak velkou, se teprve dozv\u00edme. \u010c\u00edm v\u00edce si bude cht\u00edt ministerstvo financ\u00ed pojistit \u00fasp\u011bch emise, t\u00edm bude pr\u00e9mie vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed,\u201c p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1.\u00a0<\/p>\n

I Zden\u011bk Mikul\u00e1\u0161 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 \u201epr\u00e9mii nad trh\u201c. \u201ePokud by tomu tak bylo, st\u00e1tu by to n\u00e1klady zv\u00fd\u0161ilo. D\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm prvkem atraktivity v\u0161ak v minulosti bylo zejm\u00e9na da\u0148ov\u00e9 zv\u00fdhodn\u011bn\u00ed, d\u00edky kter\u00e9mu byly v\u00fdnosy z dluhopis\u016f osvobozeny od dan\u011b z p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f,\u201c podot\u00fdk\u00e1. I tato varianta by ale zv\u00fd\u0161ila n\u00e1klady st\u00e1tu, a to i p\u0159i pou\u017eit\u00ed standardn\u00ed tr\u017en\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby.\u00a0<\/p>\n

PR akce Babi\u0161ovy vl\u00e1dy<\/p>\n

I Hradil si mysl\u00ed, \u017ee Schillerov\u00e1 bude cht\u00edt p\u0159ij\u00edt s n\u011b\u010d\u00edm l\u00e1kav\u00fdm. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, \u00farokov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na tomto dluhu budou v\u011bdom\u011b o n\u011bco vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e jak\u00fdch by \u0161lo dos\u00e1hnout na voln\u00e9m trhu. \u201eExistuj\u00ed zde ale i ur\u010dit\u00e9 benefity. Jednak je to prvek diverzifikace, z\u00e1rove\u0148 retailov\u00ed investo\u0159i se vztahem k vlastn\u00edmu st\u00e1tu p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed velmi stabiln\u00ed skupinu dr\u017eitel\u016f. Nelze opomenout ani PR efekt t\u00e9to akce, kdy vl\u00e1da m\u016f\u017ee dluhopisy prezentovat jako slu\u017ebu ob\u010dan\u016fm,\u201c popisuje p\u0159\u00ednosy Hradil.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Probl\u00e9m spat\u0159uje v tom, \u017ee \u010ce\u0161i jsou v \u00faspor\u00e1ch st\u00e1le extr\u00e9mn\u011b konzervativn\u00ed a p\u0159ehnan\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed pen\u011bz dr\u017e\u00ed na bankovn\u00edch \u00fa\u010dtech. Pozitivem Dluhopis\u016f republiky tak m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt i to, \u017ee i kdyby st\u00e1t nakonec nab\u00eddl stejn\u00e9 podm\u00ednky, jak\u00e9 jsou na trhu, \u010d\u00e1st lid\u00ed zl\u00e1k\u00e1 t\u00edm, \u017ee investici ozdob\u00ed \u010deskou vlajkou, a p\u0159im\u011bje je tak k pragmati\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu zach\u00e1zen\u00ed s jejich pen\u011bzi.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A vzhledem k tomu, jak celkov\u00fd dluh st\u00e1tu prudce roste, nebudou podle expert\u016f v\u00fddaje spojen\u00e9 s bondy p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 z\u00e1sadn\u00ed. \u201eSt\u00e1t beztak mus\u00ed neust\u00e1le p\u0159eb\u00edjet minul\u00fd dluh dluhem nov\u00fdm, tak\u017ee jestli v n\u011bjak\u00e9m konkr\u00e9tn\u00edm okam\u017eiku do hry zapoj\u00ed vlastn\u00ed ob\u010dany, nebo nikoli, nen\u00ed z pohledu celkov\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f obsluhy dluhu p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 podstatn\u00e9,\u201c soud\u00ed Hradil.\u00a0<\/p>\n

V letech 2018 a 2022 si st\u00e1t od ob\u010dan\u016f formou bond\u016f p\u016fj\u010dil celkem 80 miliard korun. Emise ukon\u010dil exministr financ\u00ed Zbyn\u011bk Stanjura (ODS) z d\u016fvodu tehdej\u0161\u00edho prudk\u00e9ho n\u00e1r\u016fstu cen. Ten z\u00e1jem o dluhopisy zn\u00e1sobil a ty pak za\u010daly t\u00ed\u017eit st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"Schillerov\u00e1<\/a>Schillerov\u00e1 vyd\u00e1 prvn\u00ed dluhopisy pro ob\u010dany v\u00a0\u010dervnu, dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ed V\u00e1nocemi<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"R\u016fst cen zp\u016fsoben\u00fd v\u00e1lkou v \u00cdr\u00e1nu pos\u00edl\u00e1 chystanou novou emisi Dluhopis\u016f republiky na nejistou plavbu. Riskuje st\u00e1tn\u00ed kasa,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":57247,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[297,266,955,67,68,2138,20021,1099,808,645,11737,4807],"class_list":{"0":"post-57246","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-byznys","8":"tag-alena-schillerova","9":"tag-andrej-babis","10":"tag-ano-2011","11":"tag-business","12":"tag-byznys","13":"tag-dluhopis","14":"tag-helena-horska","15":"tag-investor","16":"tag-iran","17":"tag-valka","18":"tag-valka-v-iranu","19":"tag-zbynek-stanjura"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116416964415938358","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57246","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57246"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57246\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/57247"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57246"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57246"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57246"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}