{"id":58935,"date":"2026-04-18T18:36:06","date_gmt":"2026-04-18T18:36:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/58935\/"},"modified":"2026-04-18T18:36:06","modified_gmt":"2026-04-18T18:36:06","slug":"investori-vyhlasuji-valku-evrope-draha-ropa-a-inflace-spustily-sazky-na-pokles-akcii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/58935\/","title":{"rendered":"Investo\u0159i vyhla\u0161uj\u00ed v\u00e1lku Evrop\u011b. Drah\u00e1 ropa a inflace spustily s\u00e1zky na pokles akci\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nadn\u00e1rodn\u00ed hedgeov\u00e9 fondy, tedy jedni z nejsofistikovan\u011bj\u0161\u00edch investor\u016f, nyn\u00ed rekordn\u011b s\u00e1zej\u00ed na pokles evropsk\u00fdch akci\u00ed. V\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee zdra\u017een\u00ed ropy<\/a> a dal\u0161\u00edch komodit kv\u016fli v\u00e1lce v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu<\/a> v\u00fdrazn\u011b zas\u00e1hnou ekonomiku star\u00e9ho kontinentu. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b t\u011bchto velk\u00fdch spr\u00e1vc\u016f pen\u011bz jde o z\u00e1sadn\u00ed zm\u011bnu pohledu \u2013 je\u0161t\u011b na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku toti\u017e Evropu v\u011bt\u0161inou favorizovali.<\/p>\n

Podle dat spole\u010dnosti Breakout Point, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 k dispozici den\u00edk Financial Times<\/a>, vzrostl v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed celkov\u00fd po\u010det ozn\u00e1men\u00ed takzvan\u00fdch kr\u00e1tk\u00fdch pozic, tedy spekulac\u00ed na pokles ur\u010dit\u00fdch akci\u00ed, na dvan\u00e1ct tis\u00edc. To je nejv\u00edc v historii. Evrop\u0161t\u00ed regul\u00e1to\u0159i od roku 2012 vy\u017eaduj\u00ed po investorech hl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed s\u00e1zek na pokles, pokud svou velikost\u00ed p\u0159es\u00e1hnou 0,5 procenta v\u0161ech vydan\u00fdch akci\u00ed dan\u00e9 firmy.<\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00e9 akcie<\/a> se te\u010f obchoduj\u00ed zhruba 2,7 procenta pod svou rekordn\u00ed cenou, na ni\u017e vystoupaly na konci \u00fanora, tedy t\u011bsn\u011b p\u0159ed zah\u00e1jen\u00edm izraelsko-americk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku na \u00cdr\u00e1n. Velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st investor\u016f nyn\u00ed p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee v\u00e1lka v Evrop\u011b zp\u016fsob\u00ed takzvanou stagflaci – zrychlen\u00ed inflace a sou\u010dasn\u011b ochlazen\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho r\u016fstu. V Evrop\u011b budou tyto dva jevy siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech. Proto tak\u00e9 nejsp\u00ed\u0161 umazal hlavn\u00ed americk\u00fd akciov\u00fd index S&P 500<\/a> ve\u0161ker\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty v souvislosti s v\u00e1lkou a od za\u010d\u00e1tku konfliktu u\u017e pos\u00edlil o 2,4 procenta na 7041 bod\u016f.<\/p>\n

Nenapln\u011bn\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed<\/p>\n

Je\u0161t\u011b na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku se investo\u0159i d\u00edvali na Evropu jako na perspektivn\u00ed region. Jedn\u00edm z d\u016fvod\u016f, kter\u00fd je l\u00e1kal k n\u00e1kupu zdej\u0161\u00edch akci\u00ed, bylo atraktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ocen\u011bn\u00ed v porovn\u00e1n\u00ed s americk\u00fdmi. Firmy z indexu Stoxx Europe 600 se za\u010d\u00e1tkem ledna obchodovaly v pr\u016fm\u011bru za 16,7n\u00e1sobek o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9ho zisku, zat\u00edmco spole\u010dnosti americk\u00e9ho indexu z S&P 500 vy\u0161ly mnohem dr\u00e1\u017e \u2013 v pr\u016fm\u011bru je bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 koupit za 25,6n\u00e1sobek o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9ho profitu.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Obecn\u011b se tak\u00e9 o\u010dek\u00e1valo, \u017ee evropsk\u00e9 ekonomiky bude t\u00e1hnout vzh\u016fru zbrojn\u00ed boom a rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 v\u00fddaje do infrastruktury v N\u011bmecku. Oba tyto p\u0159edpoklady jsou te\u010f ale testov\u00e1ny. Evrop\u0161t\u00ed zbroja\u0159i ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed, proto\u017ee s\u00edl\u00ed pochybnosti o dlouhodob\u00e9 udr\u017eitelnosti jejich r\u016fstu<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad akcie nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 zbrojovky Rheinmetall od vypuknut\u00ed v\u00e1lky ztratily deset procent. \u010cesk\u00e1 skupina Czechoslovak Group<\/a>, je\u017e se letos postarala o nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed zbroja\u0159sk\u00fd burzovn\u00ed debut v historii, od sv\u00e9ho prvn\u00edho obchodn\u00edho dne ztratila 34 procent. Investo\u0159i p\u0159edchoz\u00ed r\u016fst t\u011bchto akci\u00ed nyn\u00ed p\u0159ehodnocuj\u00ed, proto\u017ee za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 b\u00fdt jasn\u00e9, \u017ee v konfliktech sou\u010dasnosti st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed roli p\u0159eb\u00edraj\u00ed drony, zat\u00edmco tradi\u010dn\u00ed evrop\u0161t\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010di se zam\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161 na t\u011b\u017ekou vojenskou techniku.\u00a0<\/p>\n

V\u00e1lka v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu a o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00edch tlak\u016f tak\u00e9 \u017eenou vzh\u016fru v\u00fdnosy st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f. V\u00fdnos n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho desetilet\u00e9ho vl\u00e1dn\u00edho bondu vyst\u0159elil nad t\u0159i procenta. Na t\u00e9to \u00farovni se naposledy nach\u00e1zel v roce 2011. Investo\u0159i se proto rovn\u011b\u017e mohou ob\u00e1vat, \u017ee rostouc\u00ed v\u00fdp\u016fj\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1klady zabr\u00e1n\u00ed Berl\u00ednu vl\u00e1dn\u00ed v\u00fddaje v\u00fdrazn\u011bji navy\u0161ovat.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e tahouni selh\u00e1vaj\u00ed<\/p>\n

\u0160patnou zpr\u00e1vou pro evropsk\u00e9 akciov\u00e9 burzy je, \u017ee se neda\u0159\u00ed ani zdej\u0161\u00edm tahoun\u016fm trh\u016f \u2013 firm\u00e1m s nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed tr\u017en\u00ed hodnotou. Nap\u0159\u00edklad akcie francouzsk\u00e9 skupiny LVMH, hlavn\u00edho hr\u00e1\u010de v odv\u011btv\u00ed luxusu, ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed letos u\u017e 25 procent. Sektor luxusn\u00ed m\u00f3dy a exkluzivn\u00edho zbo\u017e\u00ed je pod tlakem mimo jin\u00e9 tak\u00e9 proto, \u017ee kv\u016fli v\u00e1lce zesl\u00e1bly tr\u017eby z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu.<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed velk\u00fd evropsk\u00fd akciov\u00fd titul, n\u011bmeck\u00fd v\u00fdvoj\u00e1\u0159 podnikov\u00e9ho softwaru SAP, klesl od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku o 27 procent. Za propadem stoj\u00ed strach, \u017ee byznys v\u00fdvoj\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch skupin m\u016f\u017ee rozvr\u00e1tit rychl\u00fd n\u00e1stup um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence, kter\u00e1 umo\u017e\u0148uje jednoduchou a levnou tvorbu nov\u00fdch program\u016f. I akcie d\u00e1nsk\u00e9 firmy Novo Nordisk<\/a>, zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na l\u00e9ky proti cukrovce a obezit\u011b, ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 21 procent. V\u00fdsledky toti\u017e ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee skupina zaost\u00e1v\u00e1 za sv\u00fdm hlavn\u00edm rivalem v oblasti l\u00e9k\u016f na hubnut\u00ed, americkou skupinou Eli Lilly<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Situace, kdy se neda\u0159\u00ed hlavn\u00edm hr\u00e1\u010d\u016fm, je pro trh v\u017edy nebezpe\u010dn\u00e1. Slo\u017een\u00ed hlavn\u00edch index\u016f toti\u017e zohled\u0148uje tr\u017en\u00ed kapitalizaci zastoupen\u00fdch titul\u016f a pokles akci\u00ed t\u011bch nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch korporac\u00ed sni\u017euje v\u00fdkonnost cel\u00e9ho trhu.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ur\u010ditou \u00fat\u011bchou m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt v\u00fdvoj akci\u00ed nizozemsk\u00e9 ASML, l\u00eddra v oblasti litografick\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na v\u00fdrobu \u010dip\u016f. Tyto akcie jsou d\u00edky AI boomu o 33 procent dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku a ASML je tak s tr\u017en\u00ed hodnotou 472 miliard dolar\u016f (11,5 bilionu korun) nejhodnotn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed evropskou burzovn\u011b obchodovanou firmou.<\/p>\n

Shorta\u0159i \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na aerolinky<\/p>\n

Hedgeov\u00e9 fondy nes\u00e1zej\u00ed na pokles cel\u00e9ho trhu, ale hledaj\u00ed firmy, kter\u00e9 jsou na rostouc\u00ed ceny ropy nebo jin\u00e9 dopady v\u00e1lky v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b citliv\u00e9. Typick\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edpadem jsou aerolinky \u2013 leteck\u00e9 palivo je pro n\u011b v\u00fdznamnou n\u00e1kladovou polo\u017ekou a ne v\u0161echny byly proti v\u00fdkyv\u016fm cen zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Podle Financial Times se tak v Evrop\u011b staly nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm ter\u010dem spekulant\u016f na pokles n\u00edzkon\u00e1kladov\u00e9 ma\u010farsk\u00e9 aerolinky Wizz Air, s jejich\u017e akciemi se obchoduje v Lond\u00fdn\u011b. Aktu\u00e1ln\u011b je podle dat Breakout Point shortovan\u00fdch 15 procent ve\u0161ker\u00fdch t\u011bchto akci\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed t\u0159emi m\u011bs\u00edci to bylo necel\u00fdch osm procent. Titul od za\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky propadl t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 o 19 procent.<\/p>\n

Dopravce Wizz Air u\u017e v b\u0159eznu ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee se mu kv\u016fli v\u00e1lce v \u00cdr\u00e1nu sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed \u010dist\u00fd zisk o 50 milion\u016f eur. Hospoda\u0159en\u00ed tak letos nejsp\u00ed\u0161e skon\u010d\u00ed ztr\u00e1tou, je\u017e se m\u016f\u017ee pohybovat v p\u00e1smu 25\u201375 milion\u016f eur. Mana\u017ee\u0159i hedgeov\u00fdch fond\u016f v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00fdsledek hospoda\u0159en\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed, a proto jsou s\u00e1zky na dal\u0161\u00ed pokles t\u011bchto akci\u00ed masivn\u00ed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

I britsk\u00e1 n\u00edzkon\u00e1kladov\u00e1 aerolinka EasyJet ve \u010dtvrtek ohl\u00e1sila, \u017ee kv\u016fli v\u00e1lce na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b a dra\u017e\u0161\u00edmu palivu o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 v prvn\u00edm pololet\u00ed provozn\u00ed ztr\u00e1tu mezi 240 a 260 miliony liber (a\u017e 7,2 miliardy korun). Akcie kv\u016fli tomu vz\u00e1p\u011bt\u00ed odepsaly p\u011bt procent a od konce \u00fanora ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed u\u017e zhruba 16 procent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Nadn\u00e1rodn\u00ed hedgeov\u00e9 fondy, tedy jedni z nejsofistikovan\u011bj\u0161\u00edch investor\u016f, nyn\u00ed rekordn\u011b s\u00e1zej\u00ed na pokles evropsk\u00fdch akci\u00ed. V\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee zdra\u017een\u00ed…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":58936,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[412,19906,67,68,106,5680,441,9482,205,113,11737,12682],"class_list":{"0":"post-58935","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-byznys","8":"tag-akcie","9":"tag-asml","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-byznys","12":"tag-evropa","13":"tag-financial-times","14":"tag-historie","15":"tag-prvni-valka-v-perskem-zalivu","16":"tag-ropa","17":"tag-usa","18":"tag-valka-v-iranu","19":"tag-wizz-air"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116427160446294225","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58935","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=58935"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58935\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/58936"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=58935"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=58935"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=58935"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}