{"id":60914,"date":"2026-04-20T16:39:11","date_gmt":"2026-04-20T16:39:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/60914\/"},"modified":"2026-04-20T16:39:11","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T16:39:11","slug":"experti-odhadli-dopady-ai-v-cesku-vyhodi-ctvrt-milionu-lidi-z-prace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/60914\/","title":{"rendered":"Experti odhadli dopady AI. V \u010cesku vyhod\u00ed \u010dtvrt milionu lid\u00ed z pr\u00e1ce"},"content":{"rendered":"

P\u0159edv\u00edd\u00e1n\u00ed ekonomick\u00fdch dopad\u016f um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence\u00a0\u2013 to je v\u00fdmluvn\u00fd n\u00e1zev nov\u00e9ho odborn\u00e9ho textu<\/a> hned patn\u00e1cti spoluautor\u016f ze \u0161pi\u010dkov\u00fdch univerzit Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a\u00a0Kanady. I\u00a0kdy\u017e je to nesm\u00edrn\u011b t\u011b\u017ek\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka, chceme na ni zn\u00e1t alespo\u0148 n\u011bjakou odpov\u011b\u010f. Tomuto \u0161irok\u00e9mu t\u00fdmu se poda\u0159ilo sesb\u00edrat data od t\u011bch, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou technologii nejbl\u00ed\u017ee, a\u00a0shrnout je do n\u011bkolika zaj\u00edmav\u00fdch z\u00e1v\u011br\u016f.<\/p>\n

V\u011bt\u0161ina dosavadn\u00edch debat o\u00a0AI<\/a> se bohu\u017eel to\u010d\u00ed kolem extr\u00e9m\u016f. Bu\u010f n\u00e1s \u010dek\u00e1 r\u00e1j s\u00a0nulov\u00fdmi n\u00e1klady na pr\u00e1ci, nebo tot\u00e1ln\u00ed zk\u00e1za a\u00a0nezam\u011bstnanost. Bu\u010f Star Trek, anebo Matrix. Jen\u017ee auto\u0159i zmi\u0148ovan\u00e9 studie na to jdou jinak a\u00a0ptaj\u00ed se p\u0159\u00edmo v\u00fdvoj\u00e1\u0159\u016f a\u00a0expert\u016f, co se re\u00e1ln\u011b d\u011bje v\u00a0ter\u00e9nu. V\u00fdsledek nen\u00ed tak \u010dernob\u00edl\u00fd, jak by se mohlo zd\u00e1t z\u00a0titulk\u016f a\u00a0debat po restaura\u010dn\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edch.<\/p>\n

\"Mlad\u00fdch<\/a>Mlad\u00fdch lid\u00ed bez pr\u00e1ce p\u0159ib\u00fdv\u00e1, nejv\u00edce v Praze. Na vin\u011b nen\u00ed jen um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence<\/a><\/p>\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm je, \u017ee um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence nen\u00ed jen jeden velk\u00fd bal\u00edk, co zm\u011bn\u00ed v\u0161echno najednou. Je to sp\u00ed\u0161e postupn\u00e9 prosakov\u00e1n\u00ed do konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch \u00fakol\u016f. Ostatn\u011b to u\u017e vid\u00edme te\u010f, \u017ee n\u011bkde AI zm\u011bnila sv\u011bt rychle a\u00a0jinde zat\u00edm vy\u010dk\u00e1v\u00e1. Experti p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed, \u017ee do deseti let uvid\u00edme z\u00e1sadn\u00ed automatizaci v\u00a0oblastech, jako jsou psan\u00ed k\u00f3du<\/a> nebo rutinn\u00ed anal\u00fdza dat. A\u00a0op\u011bt to u\u017e vid\u00edme nyn\u00ed. Ale pozor na p\u0159\u00edli\u0161n\u00fd optimismus. Historie n\u00e1s u\u010d\u00ed, \u017ee technologie sice um\u00ed z\u00e1zraky, ale lidsk\u00e9 instituce a\u00a0trhy reaguj\u00ed pomalu. \u010cesko \u010di Evropsk\u00e1 unie se sice sna\u017e\u00ed regulovat nov\u00e9 n\u00e1stroje chyt\u0159e, ale p\u0159iznejme si, \u017ee trochu t\u00e1pou ve tm\u011b, a\u00a0z\u00a0historie v\u00edme, \u017ee um\u011bj\u00ed nov\u00fdm technologi\u00edm h\u00e1zet klacky pod nohy, typicky v\u00a0boji za ochranu spot\u0159ebitele.<\/p>\n

Raketov\u00fd r\u016fst ne\u010dekejme<\/p>\n

Zaj\u00edmav\u00fd je pohled na produktivitu. \u010cl\u00e1nek nazna\u010duje, \u017ee AI sice m\u016f\u017ee nakopnout r\u016fst<\/a>, ale nemus\u00ed to b\u00fdt ta raketa, co n\u00e1s vyst\u0159el\u00ed na Mars b\u011bhem jednoho odpoledne. Zat\u00edmco vl\u00e1dn\u00ed agentury i\u00a0soukrom\u00fd sektor po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed s\u00a0dlouhodob\u00fdm r\u016fstem Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f<\/a> kolem 1,7\u00a0procenta, medi\u00e1n osloven\u00fdch expert\u016f v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee d\u00edky AI uvid\u00edme ro\u010dn\u00ed tempo sp\u00ed\u0161e kolem 2,5\u00a0procenta. Pokud se nav\u00edc napln\u00ed ty nejv\u00edce optimistick\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi o\u00a0schopnostech technologi\u00ed, m\u016f\u017ee se r\u016fst HDP vy\u0161plhat dokonce a\u017e ke \u010dty\u0159em procent\u016fm ro\u010dn\u011b.<\/p>\n

AI by tedy r\u016fst v\u00edce ne\u017e zdvojn\u00e1sobila. Sp\u00ed\u0161e ho ale zvedne o\u00a0v\u00edce ne\u017e polovinu, co\u017e ale samo o\u00a0sob\u011b nen\u00ed v\u016fbec m\u00e1lo a\u00a0do u\u010debnic se to jako revoluce nepochybn\u011b dostane. Probl\u00e9mem ale bohu\u017eel z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 adaptace firem. M\u016f\u017eete m\u00edt v\u00a0ruce nejlep\u0161\u00ed algoritmus sv\u011bta, ale pokud ho neum\u00edte integrovat do proces\u016f, tak v\u00e1m k\u00a0ni\u010demu nebude. Snad v\u00a0tom \u010desk\u00fdm firm\u00e1m neujede vlak.<\/p>\n

\"Vysoko\u0161kol\u00e1ci<\/a>Vysoko\u0161kol\u00e1ci bez pr\u00e1ce. Juniorn\u00ed pozice za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 ve velk\u00e9m nahrazovat um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence<\/a><\/p>\n

Nakonec je tu i ot\u00e1zka mezd a\u00a0nerovnosti. Zat\u00edmco r\u016fst vr\u00e1sky ned\u011bl\u00e1, sp\u00ed\u0161e naopak, na trhu pr\u00e1ce auto\u0159i jasn\u011b varuj\u00ed p\u0159ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161n\u00fdm klidem. AI pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed rozd\u00edly mezi t\u011bmi, co s\u00a0n\u00ed um\u011bj\u00ed pracovat, a\u00a0t\u011bmi, co z\u016fstanou pozadu. V\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b rychl\u00e9ho pokroku se po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee m\u00edra participace na americk\u00e9m trhu pr\u00e1ce klesne ze sou\u010dasn\u00fdch 62\u00a0procent na 55\u00a0procent do roku 2050. Zhruba polovina z\u00a0tohoto propadu, tedy asi 10\u00a0milion\u016f ztracen\u00fdch pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst<\/a> v\u00a0USA, p\u016fjde p\u0159\u00edmo na vrub um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence.<\/p>\n

\u010ctvrt milionu lid\u00ed v\u00a0\u010cesku<\/p>\n

Kolik by to bylo u n\u00e1s? P\u0159epo\u010dteno na m\u00edru participace na \u010desk\u00e9m trhu pr\u00e1ce a\u00a0s\u00a0p\u0159ihl\u00e9dnut\u00edm k\u00a0tomu, \u017ee m\u00e1me vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed m\u00edru automatizovateln\u00e9 pr\u00e1ce ne\u017e Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, m\u016f\u017eeme snadno dopo\u010d\u00edtat, \u017ee jde o\u00a0v\u00edce ne\u017e 250\u00a0tis\u00edc lid\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by AI m\u011bla v\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch 25\u00a0letech p\u0159ipravit o\u00a0pr\u00e1ci. Jen pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed: je to v\u00edce ne\u017e dvojn\u00e1sobek toho, co u\u00a0n\u00e1s zp\u016fsobil od 80.\u00a0let \u00fastup od hornictv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed to sice nevyhnuteln\u00fd konec sv\u011bta, ale je to jasn\u00e1 v\u00fdzva pro vzd\u011bl\u00e1vac\u00ed syst\u00e9m. Mus\u00edme se nau\u010dit b\u00fdt s\u00a0kr\u00e1sn\u00fdmi nov\u00fdmi stroji par\u0165\u00e1ci, a\u00a0ne se jich b\u00e1t nebo \u010dekat, \u017ee za n\u00e1s vy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed v\u0161echny na\u0161e starosti. M\u00e1me p\u0159ed sebou fascinuj\u00edc\u00ed dek\u00e1du, a\u00a0p\u0159esto\u017ee te\u010f na za\u010d\u00e1tku toho v\u00edme m\u00e1lo, odhady expert\u016f n\u00e1m mohou trochu p\u0159edpov\u011bdi d\u00e1t. Jasn\u011b z\u00a0n\u00ed vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee z\u00e1rove\u0148 bychom m\u011bli b\u00fdt pozorn\u00ed, proto\u017ee um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence je velk\u00e1 a\u00a0z\u00e1sadn\u00ed revoluce, na druhou stranu podle nich nen\u00ed ani koncem sv\u011bta a\u00a0bohu\u017eel ani cestou k\u00a0nekone\u010dn\u00e9mu r\u016fstu.<\/p>\n

VIDEO:\u00a0Um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence sma\u017ee juniorn\u00ed m\u00edsta. P\u0159ijde \u010das na zdan\u011bn\u00ed AI a\u00a0nepodm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edjem, p\u0159edv\u00edd\u00e1 Ludwig v\u00a0po\u0159adu FLOW<\/a><\/p>\n

\"Video<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\tUm\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence n\u00e1m n\u00e1m nevezme jen pr\u00e1ci, ale i smysl \u017eivota. Mus\u00edme se rekvalifikovat, tvrd\u00ed Ludwig \u2022 e15\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"P\u0159edv\u00edd\u00e1n\u00ed ekonomick\u00fdch dopad\u016f um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence\u00a0\u2013 to je v\u00fdmluvn\u00fd n\u00e1zev nov\u00e9ho odborn\u00e9ho textu hned patn\u00e1cti spoluautor\u016f ze \u0161pi\u010dkov\u00fdch univerzit…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":60915,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[67,68,42,571,27,5367,21150,4045,882,1532,845,113],"class_list":{"0":"post-60914","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-byznys","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-byznys","10":"tag-cesko","11":"tag-evropska-unie","12":"tag-kanada","13":"tag-mars","14":"tag-matrix","15":"tag-star-trek","16":"tag-technologie","17":"tag-trh-prace","18":"tag-umela-inteligence","19":"tag-usa"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116438025060489947","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60914","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60914"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60914\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/60915"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60914"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60914"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60914"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}