{"id":63742,"date":"2026-04-23T08:57:20","date_gmt":"2026-04-23T08:57:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/63742\/"},"modified":"2026-04-23T08:57:20","modified_gmt":"2026-04-23T08:57:20","slug":"sokove-zdrazovani-se-cesku-muze-vyhnout-financni-trhy-veri-ze-iran-bude-jen-horkou-epizodou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/63742\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0160okov\u00e9 zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed se \u010cesku m\u016f\u017ee vyhnout. Finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n bude jen ho\u0159kou epizodou"},"content":{"rendered":"

P\u00ed\u0161e se posledn\u00ed \u00fanorov\u00fd den a\u00a0na Teher\u00e1n dopadaj\u00ed prvn\u00ed bomby americko-izraelsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 koalice. Ruku v\u00a0ruce za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed krv\u00e1cet finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d planetou v\u010detn\u011b \u010ceska. Kapit\u00e1l se za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 st\u011bhovat na bezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed adresy a\u00a0prakticky ihned se za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 sklo\u0148ovat teprve ned\u00e1vno a\u00a0s\u00a0gustem zapomenut\u00fd pojem: inflace<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Prvotn\u00ed \u0161ok ov\u0161em odezn\u011bl a\u00a0sedm t\u00fddn\u016f pot\u00e9 d\u00e1v\u00e1 infla\u010dn\u00ed mapa \u010ceska podstatn\u011b jin\u00fd obr\u00e1zek. Nejtemn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed t\u00f3ny z\u00a0n\u011bho odezn\u011bly a\u00a0ot\u00e1zka \u010desk\u00e9ho zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/a> u\u017e nep\u016fsob\u00ed zdaleka tak pal\u010div\u011b, jak se zd\u00e1lo na po\u010d\u00e1tku bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00edho konfliktu.<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\tAnketa\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\tVyhne se \u010cesko kv\u016fli konfliktu v \u00cdr\u00e1nu nov\u00e9mu infla\u010dn\u00edmu \u0161oku?\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n

Ano, p\u016fjde jen o do\u010dasnou epizodu.<\/p>\n

Ne, konflikt je\u0161t\u011b ceny citeln\u011b zvedne.<\/p>\n

\u201eTrhy to v\u00a0po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed f\u00e1zi konfliktu p\u0159ehnaly a\u00a0inflace<\/a> se ob\u00e1valy v\u00edce, ne\u017e bylo zdr\u00e1vo. Vzpom\u00ednky na za\u010d\u00e1tek v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b jsou je\u0161t\u011b pom\u011brn\u011b \u010derstv\u00e9, av\u0161ak situace je podstatn\u011b odli\u0161n\u00e1,\u201c uv\u00e1d\u00ed ekonom Banky Creditas Petr Dufek. Investo\u0159i a\u00a0bank\u00e9\u0159i mohli vn\u00edmat \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd konflikt jako izolovanou epizodu nebo jako nov\u00fd st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00fd norm\u00e1l. \u201eFinan\u010dn\u00ed trhy se moment\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159ikl\u00e1n\u011bj\u00ed k\u00a0tomu sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i, \u017ee omezen\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby a\u00a0dopravy ropy skon\u010d\u00ed b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika t\u00fddn\u016f a\u00a0budeme tak vzpom\u00ednat jen na nev\u00fdznamnou infla\u010dn\u00ed vlnku,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 ekonom UniCredit banky Petr Sob\u00ed\u0161ek.\u00a0<\/p>\n

V\u00fdhledy na klid a\u00a0pohodu<\/p>\n

O \u00fastupu nap\u011bt\u00ed hovo\u0159\u00ed hned v\u00edce ukazatel\u016f. Kr\u00e1tce po za\u010d\u00e1tku konfliktu prudce vzrostly v\u00fdnosy \u010desk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f. D\u016fvodem byly vedle \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9ho odlivu kapit\u00e1lu i\u00a0s\u00e1zky na to, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka bude muset v\u00a0budoucnu skrze vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00faroky bojovat s\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed vlnou. P\u0159enastaven\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed tempa zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed sm\u011brem vzh\u016fru toti\u017e vede k\u00a0tomu, \u017ee investo\u0159i prakticky okam\u017eit\u011b za\u010dnou za sv\u00e9 p\u016fj\u010dky st\u00e1tu, tedy za vlastnictv\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f, po\u017eadovat vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnosy. Zat\u00edmco tak investo\u0159i je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed za\u010d\u00e1tkem konfliktu po\u017eadovali za desetiletou p\u016fj\u010dku \u010cesku ro\u010dn\u00ed \u00farok 4,3\u00a0procenta, b\u011bhem v\u00e1lky se v\u00fdnos vy\u0161plhal a\u017e k\u00a0p\u011bti procent\u016fm. Aktu\u00e1ln\u011b v\u00fdnos tohoto bondu klesl pod 4,7\u00a0procenta.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201ePo propuknut\u00ed konfliktu trh s\u00e1zel a\u017e na troj\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby \u010cNB do konce leto\u0161n\u00edho roku, v\u00a0sou\u010dasnosti to je jen n\u011bco p\u0159es jedno zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed na 3,75\u00a0procenta,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 ekonom \u010cesk\u00e9 bankovn\u00ed asociace Jarom\u00edr \u0160indel. Obdobn\u011b pak nap\u0159\u00edklad prudce vzrostly takzvan\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 swapy, kter\u00e9 jsou kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 kup\u0159\u00edkladu p\u0159i stanoven\u00ed hypote\u010dn\u00edch sazeb bankami. V\u00fdchodisko pro sazby hypot\u00e9ky s\u00a0p\u011btiletou fixac\u00ed, tedy stejn\u011bdob\u00fd p\u011btilet\u00fd swap, tak nap\u0159\u00edklad ze 3,6\u00a0procenta skokov\u011b podra\u017eil postupn\u011b a\u017e o\u00a0necel\u00fd procentn\u00ed bod.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pokud by takov\u00e1 situace trvala d\u00e9le, znamenalo by to prakticky ve stejn\u00e9 intenzit\u011b dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed hypot\u00e9ky a\u00a0\u00fav\u011bry v\u00a0ekonomice obecn\u011b. B\u011bhem dubna nicm\u00e9n\u011b tato sazba spadla na zhruba \u010dty\u0159i procenta. Na stejn\u00e9 \u00farovni byla nap\u0159\u00edklad u\u017e v\u00a0polovin\u011b prosince. \u00dalevu kone\u010dn\u011b potvrzuje i\u00a0v\u00fdvoj pra\u017esk\u00e9 burzy. Dom\u00e1c\u00ed index PX toti\u017e z\u00a0b\u0159eznov\u00fdch minim pos\u00edlil o\u00a0zhruba osm procent. Ekonomov\u00e9 p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00ed, \u017ee \u010cesko m\u00e1 pro absorpci \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho \u0161oku skv\u011bl\u00e9 v\u00fdchodisko.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u010cesk\u00e1 ekonomika je na tom dob\u0159e<\/p>\n

\u201eEnergetick\u00fd \u0161ok z\u00a0Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu zasahuje \u010deskou ekonomiku v\u00a0relativn\u011b p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9m okam\u017eiku. V\u00a0\u010cesku toti\u017e pokra\u010duje jak energetick\u00e1 deflace, tak deflace potravin\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e oboj\u00ed omezuje riziko rychl\u00e9ho pr\u016fsaku do spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen,\u201c zd\u016fraz\u0148uje ekonom skupiny \u010cSOB Jan Bure\u0161.<\/p>\n

Hrani\u010dn\u00ed metou inflace za p\u0159edpokladu dal\u0161\u00edho neprohlubov\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu m\u00e1 b\u00fdt horn\u00ed hranice infla\u010dn\u00edho p\u00e1sma, kter\u00e9 \u010cNB je\u0161t\u011b toleruje. \u201eCenov\u00e1 regulace pohonn\u00fdch hmot, ropa pod sto dolar\u016f za barel a\u00a0neoslabuj\u00edc\u00ed koruna zvy\u0161uj\u00ed \u0161anci, \u017ee spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e1 inflace v\u00a0\u010cesku nemus\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011b p\u0159ekonat hranici t\u0159\u00ed procent,\u201c soud\u00ed ekonomka Raiffeisenbank Helena Horsk\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Ekonomov\u00e9 nicm\u00e9n\u011b p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00ed, \u017ee geopolitick\u00e9 drama v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu je prozat\u00edm otev\u0159en\u00e9 a\u00a0p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00e9 sm\u011bry dal\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdvoje v\u010detn\u011b dal\u0161\u00edch \u0161okov\u00fdch situac\u00ed. Minulost\u00ed z\u00e1rove\u0148 z\u0159ejm\u011b z\u016fstanou hodnoty inflace pod dv\u011bma procenty, jako p\u0159inesly posledn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce, kter\u00e9 z\u016fstanou odrazem \u201estar\u00e9ho sv\u011bta\u201c p\u0159ed za\u010d\u00e1tkem eskalace bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00edho konfliktu.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"Bydlen\u00ed<\/a>Bydlen\u00ed a stavebnictv\u00ed d\u00e1l \u017eenou infla\u010dn\u00ed tlaky v dom\u00e1c\u00ed ekonomice<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201eInfla\u010dn\u00ed \u0161ok v\u00a0klasick\u00e9m slova smyslu se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nedostav\u00ed. M\u00edsto n\u011bj ale ekonomiku \u010dek\u00e1 m\u00e9n\u011b n\u00e1padn\u00fd, o\u00a0to v\u0161ak vytrvalej\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1vrat cenov\u00fdch tlak\u016f,\u201c p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 analytik spole\u010dnosti Purple Trading Petr Lajsek. Inflace podle n\u011bho sice nebude dramatick\u00e1, ale ani rychle nezmiz\u00ed. \u201eA\u00a0pr\u00e1v\u011b tato kombinace m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pro m\u011bnovou politiku i\u00a0finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy ve v\u00fdsledku slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e jednor\u00e1zov\u00fd v\u00fdkyv,\u201c dod\u00e1v\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Naposled \u010desk\u00e1 inflace v\u00a0b\u0159eznu 2026 m\u00edrn\u011b vzrostla na 1,9\u00a0procenta z\u00a0pouh\u00fdch 1,4\u00a0procenta v\u00a0\u00fanoru, i\u00a0tak se p\u0159itom ve\u0161la do dvouprocentn\u00edho c\u00edle sledovan\u00e9ho \u010cNB. Hlavn\u00edm tahounem r\u016fstu bylo zdra\u017een\u00ed pohonn\u00fdch hmot, zat\u00edmco ceny potravin pokra\u010dovaly v\u00a0poklesu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"P\u00ed\u0161e se posledn\u00ed \u00fanorov\u00fd den a\u00a0na Teher\u00e1n dopadaj\u00ed prvn\u00ed bomby americko-izraelsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 koalice. Ruku v\u00a0ruce za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed krv\u00e1cet finan\u010dn\u00ed…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":63743,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[3911,43,42,41,40,21832,21831,686,808,21833,1730,1887,11737],"class_list":{"0":"post-63742","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-cesko","8":"tag-ceska-narodni-banka","9":"tag-ceska-republika","10":"tag-cesko","11":"tag-czech-republic","12":"tag-czechia","13":"tag-ekonom","14":"tag-financni-trh","15":"tag-inflace","16":"tag-iran","17":"tag-petr-dufek","18":"tag-ruska-invaze-na-ukrajinu","19":"tag-teheran","20":"tag-valka-v-iranu"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116453195562922033","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63742","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63742"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63742\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/63743"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63742"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63742"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63742"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}