{"id":63754,"date":"2026-04-23T09:04:14","date_gmt":"2026-04-23T09:04:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/63754\/"},"modified":"2026-04-23T09:04:14","modified_gmt":"2026-04-23T09:04:14","slug":"spanelum-rok-po-blackoutu-hrozi-svetovy-rekord-v-zapornych-cenach-elektriny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/63754\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0160pan\u011bl\u016fm rok po blackoutu hroz\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd rekord v\u00a0z\u00e1porn\u00fdch cen\u00e1ch elekt\u0159iny"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ve \u0160pan\u011blsku po blackoutu z\u00e1zra\u010dn\u011b zesl\u00e1blo slunce i\u00a0v\u00edtr a\u00a0o\u017eily klasick\u00e9 zdroje v\u00a0\u010dele s\u00a0paroplynkami. Pokud v\u00e1m ten sarkasmus p\u0159ipad\u00e1 pov\u011bdom\u00fd, chod\u00edte sem ke mn\u011b na blog u\u017e minim\u00e1ln\u011b deset m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f (co\u017e je podle m\u011b minim\u00e1ln\u011b o\u00a0deset m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f v\u00edc, ne\u017e se d\u00e1 sn\u00e9st). Tento p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh jsem vypr\u00e1v\u011bl 2.\u00a0\u010dervna 2025\u00a0a\u00a0p\u016fvodn\u011b jsem si \u0159\u00edkal, \u017ee bych ho sem prost\u011b jen nalinkoval a\u00a0\u0161el dom\u016f. A\u00a0vlastn\u011b pro\u010d ne? Tady<\/a> to je a\u00a0u\u0161et\u0159\u00edme si jeden\u00e1ct minut \u017eivota. Nem\u00e1te za\u010d\u2026<\/p>\n

Te\u010f v\u00e1\u017en\u011b. Fakt jsem byl nap\u0159ed tak\u0159ka p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee pod \u0161pan\u011blsk\u00fdm sluncem (a v\u011btrem) se za posledn\u00ed rok neobjevilo nic nov\u00e9ho a\u00a0\u017ee m\u016fj p\u016fvodn\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nek popisuj\u00edc\u00ed jak\u00fdsi havarijn\u00ed re\u017eim v\u00a0t\u00fddnech po dni D bude mo\u017en\u00e9 bez ztr\u00e1ty kilowattu vzt\u00e1hnout i\u00a0na pozd\u011bj\u0161\u00ed obdob\u00ed. Jak hluboce jsem se m\u00fdlil!<\/p>\n

N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed datov\u00e1 anal\u00fdza prokazuje, \u017ee \u0161pan\u011blsk\u00e1 energetika se od 28.\u00a0dubna 2025\u00a0syst\u00e9mov\u011b dost posunula. Jestli k\u00a0lep\u0161\u00edmu, s\u00a0t\u00edm bych byl opatrn\u00fd. Ale ka\u017edop\u00e1dn\u011b se za\u010dala chovat jako trochu jin\u00e9 zv\u00ed\u0159e. A\u00a0proto\u017ee to zv\u00ed\u0159e pob\u00edh\u00e1 v\u00a0jednom z\u00a0nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch a\u00a0nejprogresivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch pavilon\u016f evropsk\u00e9 zoo, m\u00e1m zato, \u017ee by to nem\u011blo uj\u00edt na\u0161\u00ed pozornosti.<\/p>\n

Pohled na pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 ceny na spotu od za\u010d\u00e1tku leto\u0161n\u00edho roku by je\u0161t\u011b napov\u00eddal, \u017ee cel\u00fd Pyrenejsk\u00fd poloostrov se st\u00e1v\u00e1 evropskou o\u00e1zou levn\u00e9 elekt\u0159iny a\u00a0konkurenceschopnosti, v\u016f\u010di n\u011bmu\u017e bledne z\u00e1vist\u00ed i\u00a0takov\u00fd sever Norska.<\/p>\n

Foto: energy-charts.info<\/p>\n

Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 ceny silov\u00e9 elekt\u0159iny na spotu<\/p>\n

Ostatn\u011b v\u00a0kulis\u00e1ch hormuzsk\u00e9 krize o\u00a0\u0160pan\u011blsku vytrubovaly oslavn\u00e9 fanf\u00e1ry nejen \u201epunkov\u00e9\u201c kapely jako Ember<\/a>, ale i\u00a0seri\u00f3zn\u00ed orchestry typu Financial times<\/a>: \u201eJe vzorem v\u00a0p\u0159ekon\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch \u0161ok\u016f. Rychl\u00e9 zav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f energie v\u00a0zemi sn\u00ed\u017eilo \u00fa\u010dty za elekt\u0159inu.\u201c<\/p>\n

Jen pro p\u0159edstavu: Elekt\u0159inu za 40\u00a0\u00e9\u010dek (\u010di m\u00e9n\u011b) jsme si u\u017e\u00edvali naposledy p\u0159ed \u0161esti lety a\u00a0u\u017e se to nejsp\u00ed\u0161 nikdy nevr\u00e1t\u00ed. Fun fact? V\u00a0dob\u011b, kterou energetick\u00fd expert Michal \u0160nobr naz\u00fdv\u00e1 energetickou nirv\u00e1nou<\/a>, m\u011bli \u0160pan\u011bl\u00e9 i\u00a0Portugalci dokonce o\u00a0n\u011bco vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny silovky ne\u017e my!<\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee v\u00a0\u010dem je vlastn\u011b probl\u00e9m? Nen\u00ed n\u00e1hodou jen v\u00a0tom, \u017ee jsem prost\u011b zaho\u0159kl\u00fd tlachal odkojen\u00fd chladic\u00ed vodou z\u00a0uheln\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren? Jsem, ale v\u00a0tom to nen\u00ed. Pohle\u010fme na sl\u00edben\u00e1 data!<\/p>\n

V \u017eeb\u0159\u00ed\u010dc\u00edch TOP TEN z\u00e1porn\u00fdch a\u00a0nulov\u00fdch cen na spotu pat\u0159ily ibersk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty u\u017e v\u00a0roce 2024\u00a0mezi evropsk\u00e9 \u201epremianty\u201c, ov\u0161em ve vztahu ke Skandin\u00e1vii si nem\u011bly co z\u00e1vid\u011bt a\u00a0z pohledu Francie, Nizozemska \u010di N\u011bmecka byly po\u0159\u00e1d relativn\u011b \u201ena dost\u0159el\u201c.<\/p>\n

Foto: Petr Du\u0161ek na z\u00e1klad\u011b dat energy-charts.info<\/p>\n

TOP TEN z\u00e1porn\u00fdch a\u00a0nulov\u00fdch cen elekt\u0159iny v\u00a0Evrop\u011b<\/p>\n

U\u017e v\u00a0\u201eblackoutov\u00e9m\u201c roce 2025\u00a0\u0161lo v\u0161ak \u0160pan\u011blsko do trh\u00e1ku, zat\u00edmco Portugalsko t\u011bsn\u011b neproniklo do elitn\u00ed des\u00edtky. Metodologick\u00e1 pozn\u00e1mka: Musel jsem se n\u011bjak vyrovnat s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee od 1.\u00a0\u0159\u00edjna 2025\u00a0se p\u0159e\u0161lo na \u010dtvrthodinov\u00e9 obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed. Moc jsem se s\u00a0t\u00edm nemazal, prost\u011b jsem jednotkov\u00e9 v\u00fdskyty v\u00a0t\u00e9to \u010d\u00e1sti dat vyd\u011blil \u010dty\u0159mi a\u00a0p\u0159i\u010detl k\u00a0t\u00e9 zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed \u201ehodinov\u00e9\u201c. Mo\u017en\u00e1 to nen\u00ed \u00fapln\u011b energeticky ko\u0161\u00e9r, ale komparace mezi jednotliv\u00fdmi zem\u011bmi z\u016fstala f\u00e9rov\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Foto: Petr Du\u0161ek na z\u00e1klad\u011b dat energy-charts.info<\/p>\n

TOP TEN z\u00e1porn\u00fdch a\u00a0nulov\u00fdch cen elekt\u0159iny<\/p>\n

A kone\u010dn\u011b v\u00a0leto\u0161n\u00edm roce u\u017e maj\u00ed \u0160pan\u011bl\u00e9 i\u00a0Portugalci nasb\u00edr\u00e1no n\u011bkolikan\u00e1sobn\u011b v\u00edc z\u00e1porn\u00fdch a\u00a0nulov\u00fdch hodin ne\u017e v\u0161ichni ostatn\u00ed! Uv\u011bdomme si p\u0159itom, jak\u00e1 \u201edarda\u201c je t\u011bch \u0161pan\u011blsk\u00fdch 537,5\u00a0hodin k\u00a0t\u00e9to f\u00e1zi roku\u2026 To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00e1 p\u00e1t\u00e1 hodina byla dosud z\u00e1porn\u00e1 nebo nulov\u00e1! Kdy\u017e to extrapoluji na cel\u00fd rok podle trendu z\u00a0roku 2025, vyjde mi t\u011b\u017eko uv\u011b\u0159iteln\u00e1 hodnota 2\u00a0289\u00a0hodin, tedy p\u0159es 26\u00a0% ve\u0161ker\u00e9 ro\u010dn\u00ed doby! \u0160pan\u011blsko m\u00e1 tedy nejsp\u00ed\u0161 nakro\u010deno k\u00a0sv\u011btov\u00e9mu rekordu (by\u0165 p\u0159ekonat Ji\u017en\u00ed Austr\u00e1lii<\/a> bude v\u00fdzva).<\/p>\n

Foto: Petr Du\u0161ek na z\u00e1klad\u011b dat energy-charts.info<\/p>\n

TOP TEN z\u00e1porn\u00fdch a\u00a0nulov\u00fdch cen elekt\u0159iny<\/p>\n

Pozn\u00e1mka pod \u010darou: Kdy\u017e jsem to v\u00a0Excelu po\u010d\u00edtal, nastavil jsem si do vzorc\u016f tzv. \u201ekanibaliza\u010dn\u00ed konstantu\u201c, abych si mohl hr\u00e1t s\u00a0cenovou hranic\u00ed jako z\u00e1kladn\u00edm parametrem v\u00fdpo\u010dtu. P\u0159i zohledn\u011bn\u00ed skute\u010dnosti, \u017ee za 10\u00a0eur\/MWh a\u00a0m\u00e9n\u011b by bez provozn\u00ed dotace nikdo nevstal z\u00a0postele, jsme u\u017e v\u00a0sou\u010dasnosti na v\u00edce ne\u017e 1\u00a0000\u00a0hodin\u00e1ch extr\u00e9mn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00fdch cen. Jin\u00fdmi slovy \u0161pan\u011blsk\u00fd trh letos skoro 40\u00a0% \u010dasu generuje pro investory naprosto neperspektivn\u00ed ceny!<\/p>\n

Rychl\u00e9 \u201edou\u010do\u201c \u010d.1: Mil\u00e9 d\u011bti, jak vznikaj\u00ed z\u00e1porn\u00e9 \u010di nulov\u00e9 ceny elekt\u0159iny? P\u0159edstavte si dv\u011b fronty. V\u00a0jedn\u00e9 stoj\u00ed obchodn\u00edci, v\u00a0kuf\u0159\u00edk\u00e1ch maj\u00ed pen\u00edze a\u00a0v ruce objedn\u00e1vku na ur\u010dit\u00fd objem elekt\u0159iny. Ve druh\u00e9 stoj\u00ed v\u00fdrobci a\u00a0v kuf\u0159\u00edk\u00e1ch maj\u00ed bal\u00edky s\u00a0elekt\u0159inou, ka\u017ed\u00fd olepen\u00fd cenovkou. Kdy\u017e doraz\u00ed posledn\u00ed opozdilci, p\u0159ijde takov\u00fd kn\u00edrat\u00fd frajer s\u00a0br\u00fdlemi (n\u011bco jako Tom Selleck) a\u00a0d\u00e1 pokyn v\u00fdrobc\u016fm, aby se\u0159adili sv\u00e9 bal\u00edky podle ceny. Prvn\u00ed \u201etouch downy\u201c p\u0159edv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed ti, kdo maj\u00ed v\u00a0klop\u00e1ch u\u00a0saka kapesn\u00ed\u010dky se symboly slunce, v\u011btru a\u00a0radioaktivity. Za nimi jdou ti, kdo tam maj\u00ed kapku vody, a\u00a0\u00fapln\u011b na z\u00e1v\u011br ti u\u0161mudlan\u00ed, co tam maj\u00ed rypadlo a\u00a0trubky nat\u0159en\u00e9 \u017elutou barvou.<\/p>\n

Pak si kn\u00edr\u00e1\u010d zap\u00e1l\u00ed cigaretu a\u00a0vyb\u00eddne obchodn\u00edky, aby postupn\u011b odeb\u00edrali bal\u00edky od nejlevn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch po nejdra\u017e\u0161\u00ed. Kdy\u017e posledn\u00ed obchodn\u00edk posb\u00edr\u00e1 tolik bal\u00edk\u016f, kolik dle objedn\u00e1vky pot\u0159ebuje, kn\u00edr\u00e1\u010d t\u00edpne cigaretu, koukne na cenovku, odchrchl\u00e1 si a\u00a0zak\u0159i\u010d\u00ed: \u201eTak kon\u010d\u00edme, p\u00e1nov\u00e9! Cena pro v\u0161echny na z\u00edt\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed 15.\u00a0hodinu je -15\u00a0eur! Co se neudalo, to si vezm\u011bte zp\u00e1tky a\u00a0odchod!\u201c Ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00ed v\u00fdrobci se od\u0161ouraj\u00ed pro neodebran\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed. \u201e\u00bfQu\u00e9 carajos?\u201c prohod\u00ed jeden z\u00a0nich, kdy\u017e s\u00a0p\u0159ekvapen\u00edm sb\u00edr\u00e1 sv\u00e9 bal\u00edky s\u00a0cenovkami -10\u00a0eur a\u00a00\u00a0eur.<\/p>\n

N\u00ed\u017ee uveden\u00fd re\u00e1ln\u00fd merit order z\u00a025.\u00a0kv\u011btna 2025\u00a0ve \u0160pan\u011blsku zachycuje p\u0159esn\u011b takovou situaci, kdy hodn\u011b sv\u00edtilo a\u00a0foukalo, a\u00a0proto dokonce i\u00a0v\u00fdrobci \u201ebiduj\u00edc\u00ed\u201c m\u00edrn\u011b z\u00e1porn\u00e9 ceny ut\u0159eli nos a\u00a0v r\u00e1mci 15.\u00a0hodiny (14:00-15:00) se v\u016fbec nedostali do v\u00fdroby. A\u00a0proto\u017ee nejdra\u017e\u0161\u00ed nab\u00eddka, kter\u00e1 byla pot\u0159eba k\u00a0uspokojen\u00ed popt\u00e1vky ve v\u00fd\u0161i 17,3\u00a0GWh, \u010dinila -15\u00a0eur\/MWh, prom\u00edtla se pr\u00e1v\u011b tato cena do spotov\u00e9ho trhu jako v\u00fdsledn\u00e1 margin\u00e1ln\u00ed, a\u00a0tedy pro v\u0161echny sm\u011broplatn\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Foto: Alexandre Danthine<\/p>\n

Merit order se z\u00e1pornou v\u00fdslednou margin\u00e1ln\u00ed cenou<\/p>\n

Zb\u00fdv\u00e1 dovysv\u011btlit t\u0159i divnosti:<\/p>\n

1) Jsou ti v\u00fdrobci pra\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, \u017ee n\u011bco (cokoliv) nab\u00edzej\u00ed za z\u00e1pornou cenu? Nejsou. Maj\u00ed obchodn\u011b zaji\u0161t\u011bno, \u017ee na tom i\u00a0tak vyd\u011blaj\u00ed. V\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b OZE reprezentuje tento typ zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00fd druh provozn\u00ed podpory, tedy dotace.<\/p>\n

2) Pokud v\u00e1s zaujalo to brut\u00e1ln\u011b podst\u0159elen\u00e9 j\u00e1dro, v\u011bzte, \u017ee ani jeho provozovatel netrat\u00ed. M\u00e1 toti\u017e \u010dasto zaji\u0161t\u011bnou \u010d\u00e1st v\u00fdroby dlouhodob\u00fdm kontraktem, kter\u00fd ob\u011bma stran\u00e1m finan\u010dn\u011b dorovn\u00e1v\u00e1 fixn\u00ed cenu bez ohledu na to, co se semele na spotu. Pokud se dohodli t\u0159eba na 80\u00a0\u20ac\/MWh a\u00a0hodinov\u00e1 (\u010di \u010dtvrthodinov\u00e1) cena je -15\u00a0\u20ac, dost\u00e1v\u00e1 provozovatel jaderky od protistrany 95\u00a0\u20ac. I\u00a0kdy\u017e prod\u00e1v\u00e1 na trhu za -15\u00a0\u20ac, efektivn\u011b inkasuje sv\u00fdch 80\u00a0\u20ac. Protistrana naopak nakupuje na trhu za -15\u00a0\u20ac, zaplat\u00ed 95\u00a0\u20ac a\u00a0je tak\u00e9 na sv\u00fdch. Kdy\u017e na spotu naopak zasv\u00edt\u00ed 200\u00a0\u20ac, jaderk\u00e1\u0159 za tuto par\u00e1dn\u00ed cenu sice prod\u00e1v\u00e1, ale moc si to neu\u017eije\u00a0\u2013 podle dohody toti\u017e 120\u00a0\u20ac po\u0161le sv\u00e9 protistran\u011b. Ta form\u00e1ln\u011b nakupuje tak\u00e9 za 200\u00a0\u20ac, ale d\u00edky kontraktu efektivn\u011b zaplat\u00ed jen sv\u00fdch 80\u00a0\u20ac.<\/p>\n

D\u016fle\u017eitou roli hraje samoz\u0159ejm\u011b zna\u010dn\u00e1 neflexibilita reaktor\u016f, co se t\u00fd\u010de on\/off poloh. P\u0159if\u00e1zovat a\u00a0odstavit je extr\u00e9mn\u011b drah\u00e9, tak\u017ee se vyplat\u00ed to d\u011blat co nejm\u00e9n\u011b a\u00a0prost\u011b jet, co to d\u00e1. Proto Pedro z\u00a0Almarazu \u010di Asc\u00f3 tak ochotn\u011b nap\u00e1l\u00ed na spot -75\u00a0eur\/MWh. \u0158\u00edk\u00e1 t\u00edm jasn\u011b: J\u00e1 chci fakt vyr\u00e1b\u011bt, i\u00a0kdyby hrom bil! Pokud by naproti tomu v\u00fdsledn\u00e1 cena byla je\u0161t\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, provozovateli u\u017e by se skute\u010dn\u011b vyplatilo nevyr\u00e1b\u011bt a\u00a0elekt\u0159inu vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed ze z\u00e1vazku dan\u00e9ho dlouhodob\u00fdm kontraktem nakoupit na trhu za z\u00e1pornou cenu.<\/p>\n

3) Jak je teda sakra mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee i\u00a0v extr\u00e9mn\u011b slune\u010dn\u00fdch a\u00a0v\u011btrn\u00fdch dnech, kdy ceny slet\u00ed n\u011bkam k\u00a0Mari\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu p\u0159\u00edkopu, jede n\u011bco m\u00e1lo i\u00a0v uhl\u00ed \u010di plynu? Stru\u010dn\u00e1 odpov\u011b\u010f zn\u00ed: Funguj\u00ed v\u00a0mimotr\u017en\u00edm re\u017eimu a\u00a0plat\u00ed je provozovatel soustavy, proto\u017ee pot\u0159ebuje n\u011bjak\u00fd druh jejich syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 slu\u017eby (regulaci \u010dinn\u00e9ho a\u00a0jalov\u00e9ho v\u00fdkonu apod.). Z\u00a0pohledu ekonomiky v\u0161ech z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00fdch to fakt ide\u00e1ln\u00ed nen\u00ed, ale za st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed situace to jinak nejde.<\/p>\n

Rychl\u00e9 \u201edou\u010do\u201c \u010d.2: Co je to \u201ecurtailment\u201c, tedy kr\u00e1cen\u00ed v\u00fdroby z\u00a0OZE? V\u00a0prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b dost nadu\u017e\u00edvan\u00fd a\u00a0nejednozna\u010dn\u00fd pojem. Odborn\u00edk na energetick\u00e9 trhy Alexandre Danthine rozli\u0161uje dokonce t\u0159i odr\u016fdy<\/a> tohoto fenom\u00e9nu:<\/p>\n

1) Ekonomick\u00fd curtailment\u00a0\u2013 provozovatel OZE v\u016fbec neprolezl day ahead s\u00edtem, proto\u017ee nab\u00eddl moc vysokou cenu (by\u0165 mohla b\u00fdt klidn\u011b nulov\u00e1 \u010di m\u00edrn\u011b z\u00e1porn\u00e1).<\/p>\n

2) S\u00ed\u0165ov\u00fd curtailment\u00a0\u2013 provozovatel OZE se sice dostal na trh, ale provozovatel soustavy ho zat\u00edpnul kv\u016fli lok\u00e1ln\u00edmu p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00ed s\u00edt\u00ed \u010di celkov\u00e9 nadprodukci (vyvolan\u00e9 t\u0159eba nep\u0159esnou p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed).<\/p>\n

3) Flexibilitou \u0159\u00edzen\u00fd curtailment\u00a0\u2013 provozovatel OZE poskytuje tzv. z\u00e1pornou flexibilitu v\u00a0r\u00e1mci slu\u017eeb v\u00fdkonov\u00e9 rovnov\u00e1hy, tak\u017ee sni\u017euje v\u00fdkon na pokyn provozovatele soustavy za \u00fa\u010delem dorovn\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdroby se spot\u0159ebou. Tohle bych tedy osobn\u011b curtailmentem ani nenaz\u00fdval, ale co u\u017e.<\/p>\n

Vtip je v\u00a0tom, \u017ee 3) je sp\u00ed\u0161e v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u00e1 (proto\u017ee SVR jsou dom\u00e9nou bateri\u00ed a\u00a0stabiln\u00edch zdroj\u016f), a\u00a0zbytek jsou energetick\u00e1 \u010di ekonomick\u00e1 zv\u011brstva, kter\u00e1 limituj\u00ed v\u00fdrobu v\u00a0meteorologicky nejp\u0159\u00edzniv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed dob\u011b. Zat\u00edmco ekonomick\u00fd curtailment kv\u016fli sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed po\u010dtu v\u00fdrobn\u00edch hodin, a\u00a0tedy i\u00a0kapacitn\u00edho faktoru, kresl\u00ed \u010d\u00e1ru p\u0159es rozpo\u010det provozovatele, s\u00ed\u0165ov\u00fd curtailment p\u0159es rozpo\u010dty n\u00e1s v\u0161ech, proto\u017ee provozovatel soustavy tento man\u00e9vr v\u00fdrobc\u016fm v\u00a0b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 praxi \u0161t\u011bd\u0159e kompenzuje. Prvn\u00ed odr\u016fda tedy likviduje ekonomiku a\u00a0investi\u010dn\u00ed apetit na stran\u011b v\u00fdroby a\u00a0druh\u00e1 zdra\u017euje regulovanou slo\u017eku na na\u0161ich faktur\u00e1ch za elekt\u0159inu.<\/p>\n

A te\u010f d\u00e1vejte dobr\u00fd pozor (v\u0161imn\u011bte si, \u017ee tuhle v\u011btu pou\u017eije autor v\u017edy, kdy\u017e m\u00e1 podez\u0159en\u00ed, \u017ee \u010dten\u00e1\u0159 us\u00edn\u00e1). D\u00edky \u00favodn\u00ed statistice a\u00a0dv\u011bma \u201edou\u010dk\u016fm\u201c u\u017e spl\u0148ujeme p\u0159edpoklady pro pochopen\u00ed toho, co se to aktu\u00e1ln\u011b d\u011bje ve \u0161pan\u011blsk\u00e9 energetice: Bezprecedentn\u00ed tlak z\u00e1porn\u00fdch a\u00a0nulov\u00fdch cen a\u00a0\u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159evis nab\u00eddky nad popt\u00e1vkou z\u00e1konit\u011b zp\u016fsobuj\u00ed naprosto brut\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd curtailment!<\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed \u010dty\u0159mi lety \u0161lo o\u00a0raritn\u00ed z\u00e1le\u017eitost, dnes t\u00edmto zp\u016fsobem v\u00fdrobci ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed tis\u00edce GWh ro\u010dn\u011b! Nenechte se p\u0159itom zm\u00e1st, rok 2025\u00a0je dopo\u010d\u00edtan\u00fd jen do 30.\u00a0listopadu. Nev\u00edm, jak vy, ale kdybych byl \u0161pan\u011blsk\u00fdm investorem a\u00a0v\u00e1lelo by se mi na \u00fa\u010dtu p\u0159ebyte\u010dn\u00fdch 100\u00a0milion\u016f eur, tak je po zhl\u00e9dnut\u00ed tohoto grafu do v\u011btrn\u00edk\u016f ani sol\u00e1r\u016f fakt nenaleju. Prvn\u00ed na forhontu jsou toti\u017e samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nov\u00e9 (= m\u00edrn\u011bji nebo nulov\u011b dotovan\u00e9) projekty, zat\u00edmco ty star\u00e9 jsou d\u00edky tu\u010dn\u00e9 podpo\u0159e z\u00a0minulosti relativn\u011b v\u00a0cajku (mohou si dovolit st\u0159\u00edlet velmi n\u00edzko).<\/p>\n

Foto: Alexandre Danthine<\/p>\n

Ro\u010dn\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd curtailment<\/p>\n

Foto: Alexandre Danthine<\/p>\n

Ro\u010dn\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd curtailment v %<\/p>\n

Informace pro pr\u00e9miov\u00e9 z\u00e1kazn\u00edky: M\u00edrn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed curtailment u\u00a0v\u011btru vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 z\u00a0faktu, \u017ee sol\u00e1rn\u00edci b\u00fdvaj\u00ed v\u00a0nab\u00eddk\u00e1ch cenov\u011b o\u00a0n\u011bco agresivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v\u011btrn\u00edk\u00e1\u0159i.<\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed pova\u017euji za vhodn\u00e9 je\u0161t\u011b jednou vysv\u011btlit, pro\u010d je to cel\u00e9 blb\u011b. Zat\u00edmco uhelky \u010di plynovky mohou jet \u00fapln\u011b kdykoliv (sta\u010d\u00ed kdy\u017e jsou provozuschopn\u00e9), provoz sol\u00e1r\u016f a\u00a0v\u011btrn\u00edk\u016f podmi\u0148uje osvit, respektive dostate\u010dn\u011b siln\u00fd v\u00edtr (poplatek za ban\u00e1ln\u00ed tvrzen\u00ed uhrazen). Proto je z\u00a0energetick\u00e9ho pohledu \u017e\u00e1douc\u00ed, aby p\u0159i dobr\u00fdch meteorologick\u00fdch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch OZE za ka\u017edou cenu vyr\u00e1b\u011bly. M\u00edsto toho v\u0161ak kv\u016fli dramatick\u00e9mu p\u0159evisu nab\u00eddky nad popt\u00e1vkou \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l del\u0161\u00ed dobu pln\u00ed ryze estetickou funkci\u2026<\/p>\n

To m\u00e1 ve \u0160pan\u011blsku jeden velmi nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00fd d\u016fsledek, kter\u00fd u\u017e dlouho sledujeme v\u00a0N\u011bmecku a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch zem\u00edch: Pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed boom OZE u\u017e se projevuje pouze na instalovan\u00e9m v\u00fdkonu\u2026<\/p>\n

Foto: energy-charts.info<\/p>\n

Instalovan\u00fd v\u00fdkon ve FVE<\/p>\n

Foto: energy-charts.info<\/p>\n

Instalovan\u00fd v\u00fdkon ve VTE<\/p>\n

\u2026zat\u00edmco ve v\u00fdrob\u011b jen m\u00edrn\u011b nebo skoro v\u016fbec! K\u00a0sol\u00e1r\u016fm se slu\u0161\u00ed dodat srovn\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee instalovan\u00fd v\u00fdkon narostl za posledn\u00ed rok o\u00a042\u00a0% a\u00a0v\u00fdroba jen o\u00a010\u00a0%. K\u00a0v\u011btrn\u00edk\u016fm net\u0159eba nic dod\u00e1vat.<\/p>\n

Foto: energy-charts.info<\/p>\n

V\u00fdroba ve FVE<\/p>\n

Foto: energy-charts.info<\/p>\n

V\u00fdroba VTE<\/p>\n

Pro pobaven\u00ed: Nap\u0159\u00edkald progn\u00f3zn\u00ed grafy k\u00a0sol\u00e1r\u016fm v\u00a0t\u011bchto jarn\u00edch t\u00fddnech b\u011b\u017en\u011b p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00ed okousan\u00e1 l\u00edz\u00e1tka. A\u00a0velmi \u010dasto se st\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee \u010dist\u011b z\u00a0ekonomick\u00fdch (nikoliv meteorologick\u00fdch) d\u016fvod\u016f vypadne z\u00a0v\u00fdroby i\u00a0p\u0159es 10\u00a0000\u00a0MW v\u00a0OZE!<\/p>\n

Foto: energy-charts.info<\/p>\n

Progn\u00f3za FVE<\/p>\n

Jakkoliv tedy vypad\u00e1 \u201enejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed silovka v\u00a0Evrop\u011b\u201c l\u00e1kav\u011b, rozhodn\u011b nesv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed o\u00a0zdrav\u00e9 energetice a\u00a0u\u017e v\u016fbec ne o\u00a0dokonal\u00e9m vyu\u017eit\u00ed potenci\u00e1lu jedn\u00e9 z\u00a0meteorologicky nejp\u0159\u00edzniv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed oblast\u00ed star\u00e9ho kontinentu.<\/p>\n

S\u00ed\u0165ov\u00fd curtailment je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b ve \u0160pan\u011blsku taky velk\u00e9 t\u00e9ma, ne \u017ee ne. P\u0159ekvapiv\u011b se v\u0161ak zat\u00edm projevoval p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b v\u00a0\u201ehavarijn\u00edch\u201c m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch<\/a> po blackoutu. Dominantn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st redispe\u010dink\u016f tvo\u0159\u00ed v\u00a0tzv. pos\u00edlen\u00e9m re\u017eimu (kter\u00fd ve \u0160pan\u011blsku po\u0159\u00e1d trv\u00e1 a\u00a0pon\u011bkud karikuje snahu EU o\u00a0notifikaci kdejak\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 podpory) um\u011bl\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fdkonu plynov\u00fdch zdroj\u016f. Fakt se dost sna\u017e\u00edm, ale\u2026 porad\u00edte mi, jak to vn\u00edmat jinak ne\u017e jako dal\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1klady vyvolan\u00e9 OZE?<\/p>\n

Foto: REE<\/p>\n

Redispe\u010dink<\/p>\n

To v\u0161ak nen\u00ed v\u0161echno. Ned\u00e1vno jsem tady psal o\u00a0tot\u00e1ln\u011b vybrakovan\u00e9 kapacit\u011b ve \u0161pan\u011blsk\u00fdch distribu\u010dk\u00e1ch<\/a>. To jsem ale je\u0161t\u011b neznal aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed studii<\/a> spole\u010dnosti Aurora, kter\u00e1 popisuje \u201edokonalou bou\u0159i\u201c slibuj\u00edc\u00ed dramatick\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst s\u00ed\u0165ov\u00e9ho curtailmentu do budoucna: boom OZE, zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00fd \u010di nejist\u00fd rozvoj s\u00edt\u00ed, geografick\u00fd nesoulad v\u00fdroby a\u00a0spot\u0159eby a \u201eredispe\u010dinkov\u00e9\u201c nastaven\u00ed trhu.<\/p>\n

K t\u011bmto obr\u00e1zk\u016fm asi net\u0159eba cokoliv dod\u00e1vat.<\/p>\n

Foto: Aurora<\/p>\n

Geografick\u00fd nesoulad v\u00fdroby a\u00a0spot\u0159eby<\/p>\n

Foto: Aurora<\/p>\n

S\u00ed\u0165ov\u00fd curtailment – p\u0159enos, distribuce<\/p>\n

No dobr\u00e1, tak p\u0159eci jenom jednu informaci: Analytici odhaduj\u00ed, \u017ee jen odb\u011bratel\u016fm p\u0159ipojen\u00fdm u\u00a0z\u00e1pado\u0161pan\u011blsk\u00e9ho Badajozu spadnou kv\u016fli s\u00ed\u0165ov\u00e9mu curtailmentu tr\u017eby v\u00a0srpnu 2027\u00a0t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 o\u00a016\u00a0%!<\/p>\n

Abych nebyl jen negativn\u00ed, oba jevy (ekonomick\u00fd a\u00a0s\u00ed\u0165ov\u00fd curtailment) mohou v\u00a0bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti zafungovat jako z\u00e1chrann\u00e1 brzda, kter\u00e1 zabr\u00e1n\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edmu zhor\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed probl\u00e9mu, proto\u017ee utlum\u00ed bezuzdn\u00fd rozvoj OZE. Samo o\u00a0sob\u011b to ale rozha\u0161en\u00e9 \u0161pan\u011blsk\u00e9 energetice nepom\u016f\u017ee.<\/p>\n

Na z\u00e1v\u011br si je\u0161t\u011b jednou pojmenujme, v\u00a0\u010dem je probl\u00e9m: Nen\u00ed v\u00a0celkov\u00e9 bilanci, ale v\u00a0\u010dasov\u00e9m nesouladu v\u00fdroby a\u00a0spot\u0159eby. Dv\u011b kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 ot\u00e1zky zn\u011bj\u00ed: Kdy a\u00a0jak se n\u00e1m koncentruj\u00ed p\u0159ebytky v\u00fdroby? A\u00a0jsme schopni proti nim postavit adekv\u00e1tn\u00ed flexibiln\u00ed spot\u0159ebu?<\/p>\n

J\u00e1 v\u00e1s s\u00a0t\u011bmi baterkami samoz\u0159ejm\u011b sly\u0161\u00edm. Ale \u00fapln\u011b nesouhlas\u00edm. Technicky to sice je to prav\u00e9 o\u0159echov\u00e9, toti\u017e energetick\u00e9, ale za prvn\u00ed mi nen\u00ed moc jasn\u00e9, kam se v\u0161echna ta \u00falo\u017ei\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ipoj\u00ed (s\u00ed\u0165 je opravdu skoro pln\u00e1), a\u00a0za druh\u00e9 to p\u0159i nejlep\u0161\u00ed v\u016fli m\u016f\u017ee ekonomicky vych\u00e1zet tak nap\u016fl, a\u00a0to doslova. Zat\u00edmco pro f\u00e1zi nab\u00edjen\u00ed jsou ve \u0160pan\u011blsku skv\u011bl\u00e9 podm\u00ednky skoro cel\u00fd rok, vhodn\u00e1 doba na vyb\u00edjen\u00ed skoro neexistuje. V\u00a0roce 2025\u00a0jsem napo\u010d\u00edtal jen cca 300\u00a0hodin s\u00a0cenou nad 150\u00a0eur\u2026 Kdo by to stav\u011bl, kdy\u017e se na tom re\u00e1ln\u011b moc vyd\u011blat ned\u00e1? A\u00a0provoz do vlastn\u00ed spot\u0159eby? K\u00a0\u010demu, kdy\u017e silovka je levn\u00e1?<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed obl\u00edbenou mantrou je \u201ea\u017e se dostav\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b\u201c. Jakkoliv vn\u00edm\u00e1m, \u017ee je to pot\u0159eba, tak p\u0159i v\u0161\u00ed \u00fact\u011b: Tady to fakt nepom\u016f\u017ee. T\u011bch p\u0159ebyte\u010dn\u00fdch 10\u00a0000\u00a0MW a\u00a0v\u00edc neuplac\u00edrujeme t\u00edm, \u017ee je budeme honit p\u0159enosovkou \u010di distribu\u010dkami\u2026 Nam\u00edtnete-li, \u017ee by dost pomohlo pos\u00edlen\u00ed p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00edch veden\u00ed, kolem projdou Francouzi s\u00a0ho\u0159\u00edc\u00edmi pochodn\u011bmi a\u00a0vysv\u011btl\u00ed v\u00e1m, \u017ee to nen\u00ed tak dobr\u00fd n\u00e1pad.<\/p>\n

Do t\u0159etice: PPA kontrakty u\u017e dle posledn\u00edch zpr\u00e1v<\/a> ze \u0160pan\u011blska taky p\u0159est\u00e1vaj\u00ed fungovat, a\u00a0to pr\u00e1v\u011b kv\u016fli kanibalizaci OZE a\u00a0hled\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00e9ho cenov\u00e9ho dna.<\/p>\n

\u201eProbl\u00e9my velk\u00e9 p\u0159ece, ty pr\u00fd se sami vy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed,\u201c zp\u00edv\u00e1 Ji\u0159\u00ed Schmitzer a\u00a0i v\u00a0tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b to m\u016f\u017ee trochu zafungovat. A\u017e se odeberou na v\u011b\u010dnost ty nej\u0161t\u011bd\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed provozn\u00ed podpory z\u00a0d\u00e1vnov\u011bku, logicky odejdou i\u00a0ty nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1porn\u00e9 ceny. Ale to je asi tak v\u0161echno. Mimochodem v\u00a0tomhle tkv\u00ed velk\u00e9 pou\u010den\u00ed. V\u017edy kdy\u017e n\u011bjak\u00fd energetick\u00fd expert v\u00a0televizi abstraktn\u011b hovo\u0159\u00ed o\u00a0tom, \u017ee v\u00fdvoj by nem\u011bl j\u00edt tak rychle, jinak to bude drah\u00e9, tak toto je p\u0159esn\u011b ono. Brut\u00e1ln\u011b jsme dotovali n\u011bco, co je\u0161t\u011b nebylo technologicky zral\u00e9 a\u00a0te\u010f za to mus\u00edme zaplatit. Kdyby \u0161el v\u00fdvoj organi\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed cestou, \u0161pan\u011blsk\u00e1 energetika by dnes byla o\u00a0dost zdrav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed poselstv\u00ed vid\u00edm ale je\u0161t\u011b jinde. \u0160pan\u011blsko m\u00e1 objektivn\u011b skv\u011bl\u00e9 podm\u00ednky pro rozvoj v\u0161ech bezemisn\u00edch \u010di n\u00edzkoemisn\u00edch energetick\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00ed: j\u00e1dra, sol\u00e1r\u016f, v\u011btrn\u00edk\u016f, vodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f i\u00a0plynu. Jak je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee m\u00edsto toho, aby vedle Francie tvo\u0159ilo dal\u0161\u00ed stabiln\u00ed pil\u00ed\u0159 evropsk\u00e9 energetiky, sm\u011b\u0159uje k\u00a0typick\u00e9mu chov\u00e1n\u00ed energetick\u00e9ho oportunisty (kdy\u017e nesv\u00edt\u00ed a\u00a0nefouk\u00e1, dejte mi, kdy\u017e sv\u00edt\u00ed a\u00a0fouk\u00e1, tady m\u00e1te)? A\u017e odejdou do d\u016fchodu st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed jadern\u00e9 zdroje (a to se prost\u011b jednou stane), bude \u0161pan\u011blsk\u00fd mix p\u0159ipom\u00ednat sp\u00ed\u0161 chronicky deficitn\u00ed It\u00e1lii. N\u00e1hrada se p\u0159itom bude s\u00a0ohledem na ekonomiku pl\u00e1novat dost blb\u011b.<\/p>\n

Pokud se tedy nic nezm\u011bn\u00ed, v\u00fdsledkem bude tot\u00e1ln\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00ed paral\u00fdza, kter\u00e1 onen energetick\u00fd oportunismus na dlouh\u00e9 roky zakonzervuje. Ned\u00e1 se p\u0159itom \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee by si d\u00edky n\u011bmu spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 alespo\u0148 u\u017e\u00edvali n\u011bjak extra n\u00edzk\u00e9 ceny elekt\u0159iny. V\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st faktury u\u017e toti\u017e plat\u00ed za regulovanou slo\u017eku.<\/p>\n

Na\u0161t\u011bst\u00ed jsou tu organizace, kter\u00e9 v\u011bd\u00ed, co s\u00a0t\u00edm, a\u00a0to navzdory tomu, \u017ee \u017e\u00e1dnou elektr\u00e1rnu nikdy neprovozovaly. Aktivist\u00e9 Greenpeace<\/a> tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee \u0160pan\u011blsko a\u00a0Portugalsko mohou u\u017e v\u00a0roce 2040\u00a0dos\u00e1hnout nula emis\u00ed (!), a\u00a0to dokonce i\u00a0bez jadern\u00e9 energie (!!). Pr\u00fd bude sta\u010dit, kdy\u017e celkov\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka po energi\u00edch poklesne o\u00a039\u00a0% (!!!).<\/p>\n

Asi to nem\u00e1 cenu komentovat, jen dopln\u00edm jednu pozoruhodnou souvislost. Pokud by se v\u00a0lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce uzav\u0159ela jadern\u00e1 elektr\u00e1rna Almaraz<\/a>, jak bylo p\u016fvodn\u011b pl\u00e1nov\u00e1no, cenu silov\u00e9 elekt\u0159iny by to podle odhad\u016f v\u00a0n\u00e1vaznosti na hormuzskou krizi vyst\u0159elilo a\u017e o\u00a047\u00a0eur\/MWh\u2026<\/p>\n

Zas na druhou stranu by se kone\u010dn\u011b za\u010daly vypl\u00e1cet ty baterky, \u017ee?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Ve \u0160pan\u011blsku po blackoutu z\u00e1zra\u010dn\u011b zesl\u00e1blo slunce i\u00a0v\u00edtr a\u00a0o\u017eily klasick\u00e9 zdroje v\u00a0\u010dele s\u00a0paroplynkami. Pokud v\u00e1m ten sarkasmus p\u0159ipad\u00e1…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":63755,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[12204,67,68,8325,11931,150,11156,3495,383,3434,3774,950,2962,4349,4350],"class_list":{"0":"post-63754","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-byznys","8":"tag-blackout","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-byznys","11":"tag-cena-elektriny","12":"tag-dekarbonizace","13":"tag-energetika","14":"tag-fotovoltaicke-elektrarny","15":"tag-fotovoltaika","16":"tag-green-deal","17":"tag-solarni-elektrarna","18":"tag-solarni-energie","19":"tag-spanelsko","20":"tag-vetrna-elektrarna","21":"tag-vetrna-energie","22":"tag-vetrne-turbiny"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116453222993914427","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63754","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63754"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63754\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/63755"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63754"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63754"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63754"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}