obrat n\u011bkolika miliard dolar\u016f<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\nS\u00e1zky trochu jinak<\/p>\n
Spekulativn\u00ed trhy jako Polymarket p\u0159itom funguj\u00ed jinak ne\u017e tradi\u010dn\u00ed formy investov\u00e1n\u00ed nebo s\u00e1zen\u00ed. U\u017eivatel zde neinvestuje do aktiv, ale do v\u00fdsledku ud\u00e1lost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 polo\u017een\u00edm ot\u00e1zky. M\u016f\u017ee j\u00edt o politiku, ekonomiku, v\u00fdvoj nov\u00fdch technologi\u00ed i sport. Nap\u0159\u00edklad jedn\u00edm z nejpopul\u00e1rn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch typ\u016f s\u00e1zek je pohyb ceny Bitcoinu v rozmez\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch p\u011bti minut, ale nejv\u00edce se stejn\u011b pros\u00e1z\u00ed na sport. Cel\u00fd koncept se tak\u00e9 sportovn\u00edmu s\u00e1zen\u00ed podob\u00e1, ale m\u00edsto p\u0159edur\u010den\u00fdch kurz\u016f s\u00e1zkov\u00fdch kancel\u00e1\u0159\u00ed se v\u00fdnosnost uzav\u0159en\u00e9ho kontraktu odv\u00edj\u00ed podle nab\u00eddky a popt\u00e1vky, podobn\u011b jako na burze.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Na webu Polymarketu m\u00e1 ka\u017ed\u00e1 ud\u00e1lost dv\u011b mo\u017enosti: ano nebo ne. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 mo\u017enost m\u00e1 vlastn\u00ed cenu v rozmez\u00ed od 0,00 do 1,00 dolaru, kter\u00e1 odpov\u00edd\u00e1 pravd\u011bpodobnosti od 0 do 100 procent. Poka\u017ed\u00e9, kdy\u017e \u010dlov\u011bk koup\u00ed s\u00e1zku na to, \u017ee se ud\u00e1lost stane, tla\u010d\u00ed cenu dan\u00e9 mo\u017enosti vzh\u016fru. Cena takov\u00e9 s\u00e1zky neodr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed skute\u010dnou pravd\u011bpodobnost ud\u00e1losti, ale to, co si lid\u00e9 mysl\u00ed, \u017ee je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Pokud si lid\u00e9 mysl\u00ed, \u017ee n\u011bjak\u00e1 ud\u00e1lost nastane s 60procentn\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed, mo\u017enost \u201eano\u201c se bude prod\u00e1vat za 0,60 dolaru. Kdy\u017e se tak stane, u\u017eivatel dostane jeden dolar a z\u00edsk\u00e1 40 cent\u016f za ka\u017edou uzav\u0159enou s\u00e1zku, a pokud ne, nedostane nic. Mnoz\u00ed u\u017eivatel\u00e9 ne\u010dekaj\u00ed na kone\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdsledek ud\u00e1lost\u00ed, ale sna\u017e\u00ed se s\u00e1zku prodat za vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed cenu. Zisk nevznik\u00e1 pomoc\u00ed pravdiv\u00e9ho odhadu ud\u00e1losti, ale ze spr\u00e1vn\u011b odhadnut\u00e9 zm\u011bny ceny, respektive pravd\u011bpodobnosti. Podobn\u011b jako p\u0159i obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s akciemi.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Platforma si bere poplatek z ka\u017ed\u00e9 uzav\u0159en\u00e9 s\u00e1zky, \u010d\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost, t\u00edm obvykle v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed poplatek. Jeho v\u00fd\u0161e se ale m\u011bn\u00ed i podle typu ot\u00e1zky. Syst\u00e9m je nastaven tak, \u017ee lid\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed aktivn\u011b obchoduj\u00ed a dok\u00e1\u017eou rychle reagovat na zm\u011bny v popt\u00e1vce, mohou vyd\u011blat v\u00edce ne\u017e pasivn\u00ed s\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed \u010di investo\u0159i.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Polymarket v tom nen\u00ed s\u00e1m\u00a0<\/p>\n
Podle agentury Bloomberg predik\u010dn\u00ed trhy jako Kalshi, PredictIt nebo zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd Polymarket nejsou novinkou. V obdob\u00ed pandemie se lid\u00e9 s nov\u011b nalezen\u00fdm \u010dasem za\u010dali zaj\u00edmat o obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s akciemi, co\u017e podn\u00edtilo r\u016fst inovac\u00ed gamifikovan\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch aktiv, jako jsou memestocks nebo volatiln\u00ed kryptom\u011bny. N\u00e1sledoval v\u00fdvoj predik\u010dn\u00edch trh\u016f spolu s technologiemi, na nich\u017e stoj\u00ed.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Polymarket a Kalshi p\u0159it\u00e1hly velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed pozornosti za posledn\u00edch prezidentsk\u00fdch voleb ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech, kde byl Donald Trump podle t\u011bchto trh\u016f favoritem i p\u0159es odli\u0161n\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky p\u0159edvolebn\u00edch pr\u016fzkum\u016f, p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 d\u00e1le Bloomberg. Po ozn\u00e1men\u00ed v\u00fdsledku voleb se jevil Polymarket jako spolehliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zp\u016fsob, jak odhadnout budoucnost, ne\u017e tradi\u010dn\u00ed instituce.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Maj\u00ed spekulativn\u00ed trhy moc odhadnout budoucnost?<\/p>\n
Polymarket ukazuje kolektivn\u00ed n\u00e1zor ohledn\u011b ud\u00e1lost\u00ed. Jeho majitel Shayne Coplan v rozhovoru pro spole\u010dnost CBS ozna\u010dil svoji platformu za \u201enejp\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u011bc, kterou jako lidstvo pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f m\u00e1me\u201c. Toto tvrzen\u00ed obhajoval kombinac\u00ed velk\u00e9ho mno\u017estv\u00ed informac\u00ed a moudrosti dav\u016f, kter\u00e1 se odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed v s\u00e1zk\u00e1ch a m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st k p\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm odhad\u016fm, na kter\u00e9 jednotliv\u00ed experti obvykle nemusej\u00ed p\u0159ij\u00edt.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Polymarket se na sv\u00fdch str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch hrd\u011b py\u0161n\u00ed vysok\u00fdm procentem p\u0159esnosti odhad\u016f. S\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed na n\u011bm \u00fadajn\u011b dok\u00e1zali p\u0159esn\u011b odhadnout v\u00edce ne\u017e 90 procent ud\u00e1lost\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e se staly.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Z\u00e1rove\u0148 ale d\u00e1v\u00e1 prostor pro zneu\u017eit\u00ed citliv\u00fdch informac\u00ed. \u201eN\u011bkolik nov\u011b vytvo\u0159en\u00fdch \u00fa\u010dt\u016f vyd\u011blalo statis\u00edce dolar\u016f na velice specifick\u00fdch ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch \u010di s\u00e1zk\u00e1ch, kter\u00e9 byly polo\u017eeny v dob\u011b, kdy nikde nekolovala r\u00e9torika o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem,\u201c uvedl den\u00edk Guardian. To m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt jen vrchol ledovce; na prvn\u00ed pohled podobn\u00e9 s\u00e1zky byly uzav\u0159eny t\u0159eba i o zat\u010den\u00ed Nicol\u00e1se Madura, upozor\u0148ovala stanice BBC. B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm pot\u00e9 varoval sv\u00e9 zam\u011bstnance, aby neobchodovali na predik\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch, p\u0159ipomn\u011bl den\u00edk The Wall Street Journal. Mluv\u010d\u00ed B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu Davis Ingle v\u0161ak odm\u00edtl jak\u00e9koliv vyu\u017eit\u00ed vnit\u0159n\u00edch informac\u00ed k finan\u010dn\u00edmu zisku.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Regulace\u00a0<\/p>\n
Polymarket byl od roku 2022 do listopadu 2025 ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech zak\u00e1z\u00e1n a je regulov\u00e1n CFTC, kter\u00e1 pod vl\u00e1dou Donalda Trumpa zm\u00edrnila p\u0159\u00edsnost kontrol oproti obdob\u00ed prezidentstv\u00ed Joe Biden, uvedla agentura Bloomberg.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Spolu s t\u00edmto prom\u011bnliv\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edstupem v\u016f\u010di predik\u010dn\u00edm trh\u016fm v USA mnoho zem\u00ed moment\u00e1ln\u011b nev\u00ed, jak Polymarket regulovat. Pro lidi z n\u011bkter\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f Evropsk\u00e9 unie, jako jsou nap\u0159\u00edklad Francie, Polsko a Belgie, je trh pln\u011b blokov\u00e1n, zat\u00edmco v \u010cesku je st\u00e1le dostupn\u00fd.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Na co v\u0161echno se d\u00e1 vsadit? T\u0159eba na platform\u011b Polymarket se nab\u00edz\u00ed s\u00e1zka na to, kdo vyhraje prezidentsk\u00e9…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":66828,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[625,2046,212,461,4129,579,22537,98,99,7077,882,113],"class_list":{"0":"post-66827","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-praha","8":"tag-bloomberg","9":"tag-dolar","10":"tag-donald-trump","11":"tag-elon-musk","12":"tag-joe-biden","13":"tag-peru","14":"tag-polymarket","15":"tag-prague","16":"tag-praha","17":"tag-prezidentske-volby","18":"tag-technologie","19":"tag-usa"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116470489304800337","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66827","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66827"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66827\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/66828"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66827"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66827"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66827"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}