{"id":70123,"date":"2026-04-29T09:57:10","date_gmt":"2026-04-29T09:57:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/70123\/"},"modified":"2026-04-29T09:57:10","modified_gmt":"2026-04-29T09:57:10","slug":"jen-zacatek-ekonomka-predvida-kaskadu-zdrazovani","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/70123\/","title":{"rendered":"Jen za\u010d\u00e1tek. Ekonomka p\u0159edv\u00edd\u00e1 kask\u00e1du zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rozhovor si tak\u00e9 m\u016f\u017eete poslechnout v\u00a0audioverzi.<\/p>\n

Zablokovan\u00fd Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv je za\u010d\u00e1tkem \u0159et\u011bzov\u00e9 reakce, kter\u00e1 se postupn\u011b propisuje do cen energi\u00ed, dopravy i\u00a0b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed. Na cen\u00e1ch pohonn\u00fdch hmot ji u\u017e lid\u00e9 poc\u00edtili. Dal\u0161\u00ed dopady n\u00e1sleduj\u00ed nebo v\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch n\u00e1sledovat budou. <\/p>\n

\u201e\u010cel\u00edme kask\u00e1dov\u00e9mu efektu. V\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edm roce to m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt i\u00a0hor\u0161\u00ed, pokud se pr\u016fchodnost Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu rychle neuvoln\u00ed,\u201c varuje ekonomka Jana Matesov\u00e1 v\u00a0po\u0159adu Agenda. <\/p>\n

Velmi rychle se dopady projev\u00ed nap\u0159\u00edklad u\u00a0cestov\u00e1n\u00ed. \u201eV tuto chv\u00edli jsou akutn\u011b ohro\u017een\u00e9 ceny letenek, proto\u017ee kerosinu – leteck\u00e9ho paliva – se skute\u010dn\u011b nedost\u00e1v\u00e1. Tam u\u017e sv\u011bt dosp\u011bl do t\u00e9 situace, kdy nen\u00ed dost pro v\u0161echny,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1. <\/p>\n

Ropa sice zat\u00edm nechyb\u00ed, ale nervozita na trz\u00edch roste a\u00a0st\u00e1ty se sna\u017e\u00ed zajistit alternativn\u00ed dod\u00e1vky. Sv\u011bt se podle ekonomky dost\u00e1v\u00e1 do f\u00e1ze, kdy nejde jen o\u00a0ceny, ale o\u00a0samotnou dostupnost kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch komodit. A\u00a0pr\u00e1v\u011b to podle n\u00ed bude ur\u010dovat ekonomickou realitu dal\u0161\u00edch let.<\/p>\n

Podle Matesov\u00e9 je proto kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9, \u017ee \u010desk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da za\u010dala jednat v\u010das. \u201eMus\u00edm velmi ocenit to, \u017ee vl\u00e1da za\u010dala urgentn\u011b chystat sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e pro v\u0161echny mo\u017en\u00e9 situace, i\u00a0ty nejhor\u0161\u00ed. \u010clenov\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, n\u011bkdy i\u00a0v\u010detn\u011b premi\u00e9ra, se rozjeli po sv\u011bt\u011b a\u00a0opravdu hore\u010dn\u011b sh\u00e1n\u011bj\u00ed kontrakty na dod\u00e1vky, kter\u00e9 n\u00e1m mohou chyb\u011bt,\u201c popisuje glob\u00e1ln\u00ed konkurenci. <\/p>\n

Ve vat\u011b na V\u0160EFoto: Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy , Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy<\/p>\n

\u200b<\/p>\n

Zveme na nat\u00e1\u010den\u00ed podcastu Ve vat\u011b na Vysok\u00e9 \u0161kole ekonomick\u00e9. Hosty budou Oliver Dlouh\u00fd (Kiwi.com), Eva Kellermann (Investov\u00e1n\u00ed pro holky) a\u00a0investi\u010dn\u00ed bloger Luk\u00e1\u0161 N\u00e1dvorn\u00edk.<\/p>\n

Vstup zdarma, bez registrace.<\/p>\n

\u201eJinak by se klidn\u011b mohlo st\u00e1t, \u017ee na n\u00e1s nezbude. Na sv\u011btov\u00fdch trz\u00edch, je to smutn\u00e9, ale je to tak, vid\u00edme bratrovra\u017eedn\u00fd boj, kdo koup\u00ed, i\u00a0kdy\u017e u\u017e jde o\u00a0dod\u00e1vky, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 n\u011bkdo pod kontraktem,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Jana Matesov\u00e1, kter\u00e1 mimo jin\u00e9 p\u016fsobila jako z\u00e1stupkyn\u011b \u010ceska ve Sv\u011btov\u00e9 bance. <\/p>\n

Elekt\u0159ina zdra\u017e\u00ed a\u00a0slu\u017eby budou n\u00e1sledovat<\/p>\n

Nap\u011bt\u00ed na energetick\u00fdch trz\u00edch se brzy projev\u00ed i\u00a0v \u00fa\u010dtech dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed. \u201eVelmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9 je v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cen elekt\u0159iny kv\u016fli vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm cen\u00e1m plynu. Ve st\u0159edn\u00ed Evrop\u011b jsou ceny plynu z\u00e1kladem pro tvorbu cen elekt\u0159iny a\u00a0zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cen plynu je pro zbytek tohoto roku velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u00e9,\u201c predikuje ekonomka. <\/p>\n

Zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed se postupn\u011b p\u0159elije i\u00a0do slu\u017eeb. \u201eI ubytovac\u00ed slu\u017eby budou muset zdra\u017eit, ale to by nemuselo b\u00fdt do letn\u00ed sez\u00f3ny. Je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee je\u0161t\u011b letn\u00ed sez\u00f3na bude relativn\u011b v\u00a0pohod\u011b z\u00a0hlediska cen. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b od podzimu mus\u00edme asi o\u010dek\u00e1vat – a\u00a0od nov\u00e9ho roku ur\u010dit\u011b – zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed cen elekt\u0159iny, a\u00a0to pak dopadne na ka\u017ed\u00e9ho.\u201c<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed tlak p\u0159ijde p\u0159es potraviny, hlavn\u011b kv\u016fli dra\u017e\u0161\u00edm hnojiv\u016fm. \u201eNakupujeme hnojiva zejm\u00e9na z\u00a0Egypta a\u00a0Indie. Jenom\u017ee jak v\u00a0Egypt\u011b, tak v\u00a0Indii byla v\u00fdroba hnojiv, alespo\u0148 dus\u00edkat\u00fdch, zastavena, proto\u017ee nem\u011bly dod\u00e1vky zemn\u00edho plynu, kter\u00fd k\u00a0tomu pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed. Egypt hore\u010dn\u011b jedn\u00e1 o\u00a0n\u00e1hradn\u00edch dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch zase formou p\u0159epl\u00e1cen\u00ed nebo budov\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00e9 infrastruktury, \u010dili ceny se tam ur\u010dit\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed,\u201c popisuje Matesov\u00e1. <\/p>\n

Dvoucifern\u00e1 inflace nehroz\u00ed<\/p>\n

R\u016fst cenov\u00e9 hladiny je podle Jany Matesov\u00e9 nevyhnuteln\u00fd, ale dramatick\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 ne\u010dek\u00e1. \u201eJ\u00e1 se nedomn\u00edv\u00e1m, \u017ee inflace m\u016f\u017ee dosp\u011bt na dvoucifern\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla. Inflaci by se m\u011blo poda\u0159it udr\u017eet v\u00a0leto\u0161n\u00edm roce ur\u010dit\u011b pod p\u011bti procenty, a\u0165 se d\u011bje, co se d\u011bje. Pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee bude do t\u0159\u00ed procent, je vysok\u00e1.\u201c<\/p>\n

\u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka zat\u00edm vy\u010dk\u00e1v\u00e1, ale situaci detailn\u011b sleduje, zejm\u00e9na v\u00fdvoj cen v\u00a0kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch polo\u017ek\u00e1ch spot\u0159ebn\u00edho ko\u0161e. Pokud by za\u010dala r\u016fst j\u00e1drov\u00e1 inflace, m\u016f\u017ee zas\u00e1hnout. D\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd bude i\u00a0v\u00fdvoj mezd. \u201eVe v\u00fdrobn\u00edch odv\u011btv\u00edch ur\u010dit\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m, \u017ee r\u016fst mezd nebude tak rychl\u00fd jako loni. Ale nejv\u00edc rostly mzdy ve slu\u017eb\u00e1ch. To se ur\u010dit\u011b sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed, hlavn\u011b ve slu\u017eb\u00e1ch voln\u00e9ho \u010dasu, turistice, dovolen\u00fdch.\u201c<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Evropa zat\u00edm podle Matesov\u00e9 z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 relativn\u011b v\u00a0klidu, ale jen zd\u00e1nliv\u011b. Probl\u00e9my se toti\u017e mohou p\u0159el\u00edt z\u00a0Asie, kter\u00e1 u\u017e v\u00fdpadky poc\u00edtila naplno. \u201eEvropsk\u00e1 i\u00a0\u010desk\u00e1 ekonomika jsou velmi z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00a0Asie,\u201c upozor\u0148uje. V\u00fdpadky se p\u0159itom net\u00fdkaj\u00ed jen ropy. \u201ePro v\u00fdrobu \u010dip\u016f a\u00a0elektroniky je pot\u0159eba helium, a\u00a0to te\u010f nemaj\u00ed,\u201c dod\u00e1v\u00e1 s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee zpomalen\u00ed v\u00fdroby v\u00a0Asii m\u016f\u017ee naru\u0161it i\u00a0dod\u00e1vky zbo\u017e\u00ed do Evropy.<\/p>\n

Navzdory rizik\u016fm ale \u010desk\u00e1 ekonomika podle Matesov\u00e9 z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00a0relativn\u011b dobr\u00e9 kondici a\u00a0m\u00e1 lep\u0161\u00ed vyhl\u00eddky ne\u017e \u010d\u00e1st regionu. Pom\u00e1h\u00e1 j\u00ed mimo jin\u00e9 siln\u00fd obrann\u00fd pr\u016fmysl i\u00a0schopnost nahradit v\u00fdpadky v\u00a0n\u011bmeck\u00e9m dodavatelsk\u00e9m \u0159et\u011bzci. <\/p>\n

\u201eV minul\u00e9m roce za\u017eilo N\u011bmecko velkou vlnu krach\u016f mal\u00fdch a\u00a0st\u0159edn\u00edch podnik\u016f, kter\u00e9 byly subdodavateli v\u011bt\u0161\u00edch n\u011bmeck\u00fdch podnik\u016f. A\u00a0\u010desk\u00fdm podnik\u016fm se velice dob\u0159e da\u0159ilo je zastoupit.\u201c I\u00a0do budoucna tak podle n\u00ed plat\u00ed, \u017ee \u010cesko m\u00e1 \u201emnohem lep\u0161\u00ed perspektivy ne\u017e v\u011bt\u0161ina st\u0159edoevropsk\u00fdch ekonomik, s\u00a0v\u00fdjimkou Polska\u201c.<\/p>\n

Agenda<\/p>\n

\u010ctvrthodinka o\u00a0byznysu z\u00a0prvn\u00ed ruky. Rozhovory s\u00a0top l\u00eddry \u010desk\u00e9ho byznysu, zakladateli firem, odborn\u00edky.<\/p>\n

Od pond\u011bl\u00ed do \u010dtvrtka na SZ Byznys a\u00a0ve v\u0161ech podcastov\u00fdch aplikac\u00edch.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Rozhovor si tak\u00e9 m\u016f\u017eete poslechnout v\u00a0audioverzi. Zablokovan\u00fd Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv je za\u010d\u00e1tkem \u0159et\u011bzov\u00e9 reakce, kter\u00e1 se postupn\u011b propisuje do…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":8403,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[2621,67,68,605,686,23320,8281,850,205],"class_list":{"0":"post-70123","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-byznys","8":"tag-benzin","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-byznys","11":"tag-cipy","12":"tag-inflace","13":"tag-jana-matesova","14":"tag-porad-agenda","15":"tag-potraviny","16":"tag-ropa"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116487405073969387","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70123","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70123"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70123\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8403"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70123"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70123"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70123"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}