Kdy\u017e \u0161\u00e9fka rusk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky Elvira Nabiullinov\u00e1 v dubnu 2026 prohl\u00e1sila, \u017ee Rusko za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 \u201ebezprecedentn\u00ed nedostatek pracovn\u00edch sil\u201c, nebyla to jen ekonomick\u00e1 statistika. Bylo to p\u0159izn\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b doslova vys\u00e1v\u00e1 z rusk\u00e9 ekonomiky to nejcenn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u2013 lidi. A na rozd\u00edl od tank\u016f nebo raket se lid\u00e9 nedaj\u00ed jen tak \u201evyrobit\u201c.<\/p>\n
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Podle konzulta\u010dn\u00ed firmy FinExpertiza klesla takzvan\u00e1 pracovn\u00ed rezerva Ruska \u2013 tedy lid\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed nejsou zam\u011bstnan\u00ed, ale mohli by pracovat \u2013 na pouh\u00fdch 4,4 milionu. \u00dadajn\u011b o 40 procent m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e v roce 2021. Nezam\u011bstnanost klesla v \u00fanoru na historicky nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 \u2013 2,1 procenta.<\/p>\n
To zn\u00ed skv\u011ble, \u017ee? Jen\u017ee v ekonomice existuje n\u011bco jako \u201ep\u0159irozen\u00e1 m\u00edra nezam\u011bstnanosti\u201c, pod kterou se prost\u011b dostat ned\u00e1, ani\u017e by to zp\u016fsobilo probl\u00e9my. A Rusko je hluboko pod touto hranic\u00ed. Pracovn\u00ed rezerva nyn\u00ed \u00fadajn\u011b p\u0159edstavuje jen \u0161est procent celkov\u00e9 pracovn\u00ed s\u00edly, oproti deseti procent\u016fm p\u0159ed plnohodnotnou invaz\u00ed.<\/p>\n
P\u0159esn\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla emigrace jsou t\u011b\u017eko ov\u011b\u0159iteln\u00e1 \u2013 odhady hovo\u0159\u00ed o stovk\u00e1ch tis\u00edc lid\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed opustili zemi v prvn\u00edch letech v\u00e1lky. K tomu p\u0159idejme masivn\u00ed n\u00e1bor do arm\u00e1dy, kter\u00fd podle r\u016fzn\u00fdch zdroj\u016f dos\u00e1hl v\u00edce ne\u017e milionu lid\u00ed.<\/p>\n
Po mobilizaci 300 tis\u00edc voj\u00e1k\u016f na podzim 2022 n\u00e1sledovaly dal\u0161\u00ed vlny n\u00e1boru. Rusk\u00e9 ministerstvo obrany hl\u00e1s\u00ed stovky tis\u00edc nov\u00fdch kontrakt\u016f ro\u010dn\u011b \u2013 500 tis\u00edc v roce 2023, \u00fadajn\u011b 450 tis\u00edc v roce 2024 a 422 tis\u00edc v roce 2025. P\u0159esn\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla jsou t\u011b\u017eko ov\u011b\u0159iteln\u00e1, ale trend je jasn\u00fd: arm\u00e1da ka\u017ed\u00fd rok pohlt\u00ed stovky tis\u00edc lid\u00ed v produktivn\u00edm v\u011bku.<\/p>\n
A pak jsou tu ztr\u00e1ty. Podle washingtonsk\u00e9ho Centra pro strategick\u00e1 a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed studia (CSIS) bylo zabito p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 325 tis\u00edc rusk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f, celkov\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty v\u010detn\u011b ran\u011bn\u00fdch dosahuj\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 1,2 milionu. I kdy\u017e p\u0159esn\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed p\u0159edm\u011btem debaty, jde o jedno z nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edch \u010d\u00edsel zaznamenan\u00fdch u jak\u00e9koli arm\u00e1dy od druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. Ka\u017ed\u00fd z t\u011bchto lid\u00ed by mohl pracovat, vyd\u011bl\u00e1vat, platit dan\u011b a spot\u0159ebov\u00e1vat. M\u00edsto toho bu\u010f zem\u0159eli, jsou zran\u011bn\u00ed, nebo jsou nasazeni na front\u011b.<\/p>\n
Nedostatek pracovn\u00edk\u016f nen\u00ed rovnom\u011brn\u011b rozlo\u017een\u00fd. Pr\u016fmysl \u00fadajn\u011b postr\u00e1d\u00e1 zhruba dva miliony pracovn\u00edk\u016f. V Moskv\u011b podle starosty m\u011bsta chyb\u00ed 400 a\u017e 500 tis\u00edc lid\u00ed. Ministerstvo vnitra hl\u00e1s\u00ed deficit kolem 170 tis\u00edc zam\u011bstnanc\u016f. Zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed postr\u00e1d\u00e1 v\u00edce ne\u017e 130 tis\u00edc pracovn\u00edk\u016f. Elena Trubnikov\u00e1, prezidentka FinExpertizy, to shrnuje stroze: \u201eDostupn\u00e9 pracovn\u00ed zdroje se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed st\u00e1le vz\u00e1cn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi.\u201c<\/p>\n
V\u00e1lka probl\u00e9m dramaticky prohloubila, ale nezp\u016fsobila ho. Rusko se pot\u00fdk\u00e1 s demografickou kriz\u00ed u\u017e des\u00edtky let. Mlad\u0161\u00ed a m\u00e9n\u011b po\u010detn\u00e9 generace narozen\u00e9 v devades\u00e1t\u00fdch letech a na za\u010d\u00e1tku nov\u00e9ho tis\u00edcilet\u00ed nyn\u00ed vstupuj\u00ed na trh pr\u00e1ce, zat\u00edmco pod\u00edl star\u0161\u00edch pracovn\u00edk\u016f roste. To je trend, kter\u00fd se ned\u00e1 zastavit vyhl\u00e1\u0161kou ani propagandou.<\/p>\n
P\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm v kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m horizontu neexistuje jednoduch\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed. Rusko nem\u016f\u017ee ze dne na den \u201evytvo\u0159it\u201c miliony nov\u00fdch pracovn\u00edk\u016f. M\u016f\u017ee l\u00e1kat migranty ze St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie, ale i to m\u00e1 sv\u00e9 limity \u2013 a politick\u00e9 komplikace.<\/p>\n
Ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed progn\u00f3zy r\u016fstu HDP pro rok 2026 se pohybuj\u00ed mezi nulou a jedn\u00edm procentem \u2013 co\u017e je v podstat\u011b stagnace. Rusk\u00fd rozpo\u010det vykazuje v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2026 deficit 4,6 bilionu rubl\u016f. Ekonomika se sice adaptovala na sankce, ale za vysokou cenu.<\/p>\n
Nabiullinov\u00e1 m\u00e1 pravdu, kdy\u017e \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee \u201enikdy v modern\u00ed historii Ruska jsme ne\u017eili v takov\u00e9m nedostatku pracovn\u00ed s\u00edly \u201c. Probl\u00e9m je v tom, \u017ee tento nedostatek nen\u00ed jen ekonomickou statistikou. Je to struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed brzda, kter\u00e1 bude ruskou ekonomiku svazovat je\u0161t\u011b dlouho pot\u00e9, co v\u00e1lka skon\u010d\u00ed.<\/p>\n
A n\u00e1bor voj\u00e1k\u016f? Ten podle zpr\u00e1v z po\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2026 klesl zhruba o 20 procent oproti roku 2025. Mo\u017en\u00e1 proto, \u017ee lid\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed by mohli \u2013 a cht\u011bli \u2013 j\u00edt do arm\u00e1dy, u\u017e prost\u011b mnoho nezb\u00fdv\u00e1.<\/p>\n
V\u00e1lka m\u00e1 cenu nejen v lidsk\u00fdch \u017eivotech, ale i v ekonomick\u00e9 budoucnosti. A tu cenu bude Rusko platit je\u0161t\u011b mnoho let.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Zdroj info: United24 Media<\/p>\n
Autor: Josef Ne\u0161tick\u00fd <\/p>\n
Foto: Vytvo\u0159eno um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed v\u00a0ChatGPT<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Kdy\u017e \u0161\u00e9fka rusk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky Elvira Nabiullinov\u00e1 v dubnu 2026 prohl\u00e1sila, \u017ee Rusko za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 \u201ebezprecedentn\u00ed nedostatek pracovn\u00edch sil\u201c,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":71224,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[1529,61,54,53,52],"class_list":{"0":"post-71223","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-svet","8":"tag-nezamestnanost","9":"tag-rusko","10":"tag-svet","11":"tag-world","12":"tag-world-news"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116492957538500856","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71223","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71223"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71223\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/71224"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71223"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71223"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71223"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}