{"id":72409,"date":"2026-05-01T10:43:15","date_gmt":"2026-05-01T10:43:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/72409\/"},"modified":"2026-05-01T10:43:15","modified_gmt":"2026-05-01T10:43:15","slug":"nocni-mura-nejen-pro-iran-hrozi-zastaveni-tezby-ropy-s-nevratnymi-nasledky-varuje-omansky-expert","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/72409\/","title":{"rendered":"No\u010dn\u00ed m\u016fra nejen pro \u00cdr\u00e1n. Hroz\u00ed zastaven\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby ropy s\u00a0nevratn\u00fdmi n\u00e1sledky, varuje om\u00e1nsk\u00fd expert"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jak vy osobn\u011b a\u00a0lid\u00e9 ve va\u0161em okol\u00ed vn\u00edmaj\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00fd konflikt v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu?<\/p>\n

Om\u00e1n zat\u00edm nebyl v\u00fdrazn\u011b zasa\u017een, a\u00a0proto se na situaci d\u00edv\u00e1me trochu jinak ne\u017e jin\u00e9 zem\u011b Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu. V\u00a0jednom se ale shodneme: nen\u00ed to na\u0161e v\u00e1lka. Byla regionu vnucena Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a\u00a0Izraelem.<\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc za\u010dala ve chv\u00edli, kdy jedn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a\u00a0USA vykazovala pozitivn\u00ed v\u00fdvoj. Z\u00a0na\u0161eho pohledu neexistovalo dostate\u010dn\u00e9 ospravedln\u011bn\u00ed pro to, aby konflikt v\u016fbec vypukl.<\/p>\n

Jak\u00e9 pocity mezi lidmi p\u0159evl\u00e1daj\u00ed?<\/p>\n

P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm pocit, \u017ee v\u00e1lka nebyla nutn\u00e1. Jedn\u00e1n\u00ed sm\u011b\u0159ovala spr\u00e1vn\u00fdm sm\u011brem, a\u00a0p\u0159esto byl konflikt zah\u00e1jen. \u00cdr\u00e1n je n\u00e1\u0161 soused. Nemysl\u00edme si, \u017ee si zaslou\u017e\u00ed b\u00fdt bombardov\u00e1n zp\u016fsobem, jak\u00fd jsme vid\u011bli v\u00a0posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech. Likvidace velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti jeho veden\u00ed nav\u00edc vytvo\u0159ila mocensk\u00e9 vakuum. Dnes sami Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed, \u017ee nev\u011bd\u00ed, s\u00a0k\u00fdm maj\u00ed jednat.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Blok\u00e1da, kterou USA uvalily na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstavy, neovlivn\u00ed jen ekonomiku \u00cdr\u00e1nu, ale p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm oby\u010dejn\u00e9 \u00cdr\u00e1nce. Nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 zablokovat zemi takov\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem a\u00a0zastavit dod\u00e1vky zbo\u017e\u00ed a\u00a0materi\u00e1l\u016f, kter\u00e9 lid\u00e9 pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed\u00a0\u2013 zejm\u00e9na l\u00e9k\u016f a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch z\u00e1kladn\u00edch v\u011bc\u00ed. To bude m\u00edt p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd dopad na ka\u017edodenn\u00ed \u017eivot obyvatel.<\/p>\n

Jak\u00e9 m\u00e1 zav\u0159en\u00ed cesty z\u00a0Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu dopady z\u00a0glob\u00e1ln\u00edho hlediska? Nejviditeln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je prudk\u00e9 zdra\u017een\u00ed ropy.<\/p>\n

Mus\u00edme rozli\u0161ovat dv\u011b v\u011bci: \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu a\u00a0americkou blok\u00e1du \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f, o\u00a0n\u00ed\u017e jsem u\u017e mluvil. Uzav\u0159en\u00ed pr\u016flivu ji\u017e m\u00e1 velk\u00fd glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dopad. Za\u010dalo to v\u00a0regionu z\u00e1livu, pokra\u010dovalo do Asie a\u00a0nyn\u00ed to zasahuje Evropu a\u00a0v\u00a0men\u0161\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e i\u00a0USA. Je to dominov\u00fd efekt. <\/p>\n

Nejv\u00edce jsou posti\u017eeny asijsk\u00e9 ekonomiky\u00a0\u2013 \u010c\u00edna, Japonsko, Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea. Jejich rafinerie omezuj\u00ed provoz a\u00a0z\u00e1soby ropy klesaj\u00ed a\u00a0nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 je dopl\u0148ovat. P\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou \u0161lo zhruba 1,5\u00a0milionu barel\u016f \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy denn\u011b hlavn\u011b do \u010c\u00edny. V\u00fdpadek t\u011bchto dod\u00e1vek znamen\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd z\u00e1sah \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 ekonomiky, co\u017e ovliv\u0148uje i\u00a0zbytek sv\u011bta.<\/p>\n

Indie m\u00e1 probl\u00e9my s\u00a0nedostatkem nafty a\u00a0LPG, tedy plynu, kter\u00fd ka\u017ed\u00fd den pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed na va\u0159en\u00ed. Evropa za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 poci\u0165ovat nedostatek u\u00a0leteck\u00e9ho paliva a\u00a0nafty. N\u011bkter\u00e9 aerolinky u\u017e omezuj\u00ed provoz, ru\u0161it lety u\u017e za\u010dala nap\u0159\u00edklad Lufthansa.<\/p>\n

Co zp\u016fsob\u00ed americk\u00e1 blok\u00e1da \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f?<\/p>\n

M\u00e1 to p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd a\u00a0velmi tvrd\u00fd dopad. Pokud \u00cdr\u00e1n nem\u016f\u017ee vyv\u00e1\u017eet ropu, p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed o\u00a0hlavn\u00ed zdroj p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f. Produkuje zhruba 3,5\u00a0milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b a\u00a0exportoval asi 1,5\u00a0milionu, nyn\u00ed v\u0161ak ropu mus\u00ed p\u0159esouvat do z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016f. Jeho skladovac\u00ed kapacity jsou ale omezen\u00e9. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika dn\u016f se napln\u00ed a\u00a0t\u011b\u017eba bude muset b\u00fdt utlumena nebo zastavena.<\/p>\n

To je z\u00e1sadn\u00ed probl\u00e9m, proto\u017ee op\u011btovn\u00e9 spu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed star\u0161\u00edch ropn\u00fdch pol\u00ed je technicky velmi n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e9, drah\u00e9 a\u00a0n\u011bkdy to u\u017e ani nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9. To pro \u00cdr\u00e1n p\u0159edstavuje no\u010dn\u00ed m\u016fru.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Jak u\u017e jsem \u0159\u00edkal, blok\u00e1da zas\u00e1hne b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 lidi\u00a0\u2013 potraviny si \u00cdr\u00e1n sice dok\u00e1\u017ee z\u00a0velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti zajistit s\u00e1m, ale probl\u00e9m nastane zejm\u00e9na u\u00a0l\u00e9k\u016f, technologi\u00ed a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch dov\u00e1\u017een\u00fdch produkt\u016f. Nav\u00edc bez p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f z\u00a0ropy vznikaj\u00ed probl\u00e9my s\u00a0financov\u00e1n\u00edm st\u00e1tu, v\u010detn\u011b v\u00fdplat.<\/p>\n

M\u016f\u017ee to v\u00e9st k\u00a0vnit\u0159n\u00ed destabilizaci \u00cdr\u00e1nu a\u00a0p\u00e1du tamn\u00edho re\u017eimu?<\/p>\n

Nemysl\u00edm si, \u017ee v\u00a0kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m horizontu k\u00a0tomu dojde. Je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 pochopit mentalitu a\u00a0kulturu \u00cdr\u00e1nu a\u00a0jeho lid\u00ed. Je to civilizace s\u00a0tis\u00edciletou histori\u00ed, velmi odoln\u00e1 v\u016f\u010di kriz\u00edm. \u00cdr\u00e1nci mohou m\u00edt vnit\u0159n\u00ed spory, ale svoji zemi miluj\u00ed a\u00a0v moment\u011b vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho ohro\u017een\u00ed se semknou a\u00a0sjednot\u00ed se proti spole\u010dn\u00e9mu nep\u0159\u00edteli.<\/p>\n

Jak konflikt ovliv\u0148uje Om\u00e1n?<\/p>\n

Om\u00e1n m\u00e1 v\u00fdhodu\u00a0\u2013 le\u017e\u00ed mimo Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv a\u00a0m\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup k\u00a0otev\u0159en\u00e9mu Om\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu mo\u0159i, Arabsk\u00e9mu mo\u0159i a\u00a0Indick\u00e9mu oce\u00e1nu. D\u00edky tomu z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed exportn\u00ed trasy funk\u010dn\u00ed. Produkce ropy i\u00a0plynu b\u011b\u017e\u00ed norm\u00e1ln\u011b. Popt\u00e1vka po om\u00e1nsk\u00e9 rop\u011b strm\u011b vzrostla, hlavn\u011b ze strany \u010c\u00edny.<\/p>\n

M\u016f\u017ee Om\u00e1n nahradit v\u00fdpadky jin\u00fdch producent\u016f z\u00a0oblasti?<\/p>\n

Ne. Jsme na hran\u011b kapacit. Produkujeme n\u011bco p\u0159es 1,1\u00a0milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b a\u00a0nem\u00e1me prostor v\u00fdrazn\u011b produkci nav\u00fd\u0161it. Vysok\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka ale vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed tlak na nov\u00e9 investice a\u00a0pr\u016fzkum lo\u017eisek, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt dlouhodob\u00fd pozitivn\u00ed efekt. V\u00a0sou\u010dasnosti vl\u00e1da vyhl\u00e1sila tendr na t\u0159i nov\u00e1 t\u011b\u017eebn\u00ed m\u00edsta, uvid\u00edme, kolik tam bude ropy a\u00a0zemn\u00edho plynu.<\/p>\n

Po vypuknut\u00ed v\u00e1lky tak\u00e9 o\u017eila debata o\u00a0p\u00e1te\u0159n\u00edm ropovodu p\u0159es Arabsk\u00fd poloostrov, kter\u00fd by Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv obch\u00e1zel.<\/p>\n

Ano, tato my\u0161lenka existuje u\u017e des\u00edtky let, jde o\u00a0vizion\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd projekt na\u0161eho, ji\u017e zesnul\u00e9ho sult\u00e1na K\u00e1b\u00fase. Poprv\u00e9 byla v\u00e1\u017en\u011b diskutov\u00e1na p\u0159ed \u010dty\u0159iceti lety b\u011bhem \u00edr\u00e1nsko-ir\u00e1ck\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n

Dnes se k\u00a0n\u00ed region vrac\u00ed, proto\u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e1 krize ukazuje zranitelnost infrastruktury. Probl\u00e9m je, \u017ee takov\u00fd projekt vy\u017eaduje politickou shodu v\u0161ech st\u00e1t\u016f\u00a0\u2013 nejde jen o\u00a0ekonomiku, ale o\u00a0strategick\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed. My m\u00e1me infrastrukturu vybudovanou.<\/p>\n

Ve stejn\u00e9 dob\u011b, kdy my\u0161lenka ropovodu vznikla, Saudov\u00e9 vybudovali sv\u016fj ropovod V\u00fdchod\u2013Z\u00e1pad, kter\u00fdm denn\u011b proud\u00ed sedm milion\u016f barel\u016f. O\u00a0n\u011bco pozd\u011bji vznikl ropovod z\u00a0Ab\u00fa Dhab\u00ed do Fud\u017eajry s\u00a0denn\u00ed kapacitou 1,5\u00a0milion\u016f barel\u016f. I\u00a0to je pomoc, proto\u017ee Fud\u017eajra je v\u00a0Om\u00e1nsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i, tedy mimo Hormuz. Tyto kapacity ale zav\u0159enou n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed trasu nenahrad\u00ed. <\/p>\n

Jakou roli m\u016f\u017ee Om\u00e1n v\u00a0konfliktu mezi USA, Izraelem a\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nem sehr\u00e1t diplomaticky?<\/p>\n

Om\u00e1n m\u00e1 dlouhodob\u011b pov\u011bst neutr\u00e1ln\u00edho prost\u0159edn\u00edka. M\u00e1 d\u016fv\u011bru jak ze strany \u00cdr\u00e1nu a\u00a0Arab\u016f, tak Z\u00e1padu.<\/p>\n

Je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee by se jedn\u00e1n\u00ed mohla vr\u00e1tit pr\u00e1v\u011b sem, do Om\u00e1nu. Tradi\u010dn\u011b nab\u00edz\u00edme diskr\u00e9tn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed bez medi\u00e1ln\u00edho tlaku, co\u017e pro takov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed b\u00fdv\u00e1 kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9. \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bru v\u00a0Om\u00e1n ne\u017e v\u00a0P\u00e1kist\u00e1n jako prost\u0159edn\u00edka. Ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu podle m\u011b neprob\u00edhala ide\u00e1ln\u011b, nebyla dostate\u010dn\u011b diskr\u00e9tn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Jak dlouho m\u016f\u017ee po skon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu trvat, ne\u017e se situace s\u00a0dod\u00e1vkami energi\u00ed vr\u00e1t\u00ed do norm\u00e1lu?<\/p>\n

I kdyby konflikt skon\u010dil rychle, n\u00e1vrat k\u00a0norm\u00e1lu potrv\u00e1 m\u011bs\u00edce. Jen odbaven\u00ed lod\u00ed v\u00a0Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu by za b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch podm\u00ednek zabralo minim\u00e1ln\u011b m\u011bs\u00edc. Pokud by ale m\u011bl b\u00fdt provoz pod kontrolou \u00cdr\u00e1nu, jak o\u00a0to usiluje, situace se komplikuje. V\u00a0oblasti je nyn\u00ed asi p\u011bt set lod\u00ed uvnit\u0159 Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch \u0161est set a\u017e sedm set \u010dek\u00e1 venku.<\/p>\n

Podobn\u011b jako trp\u00ed ropn\u00fd pr\u016fmysl v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu, je zasa\u017een tak\u00e9 v\u00a0Ir\u00e1ku, Kuvajtu, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii, Spojen\u00fdch arabsk\u00fdch emir\u00e1tech, Kataru a\u00a0Bahrajnu. Kv\u016fli produkci a\u00a0kv\u016fli kapacit\u00e1m, zejm\u00e9na t\u011bm skladovac\u00edm, kter\u00e9 tyto zem\u011b maj\u00ed, musela v\u011bt\u0161ina z\u00a0nich sn\u00ed\u017eit t\u011b\u017ebu.<\/p>\n

Jej\u00ed obnoven\u00ed v\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch zem\u00edch jako Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty nebo Kuvajt, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed robustn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed infrastrukturu a\u00a0dob\u0159e udr\u017eovan\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, m\u016f\u017ee trvat dva a\u017e t\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce. V\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Ir\u00e1ku ale d\u00e9le, ten toti\u017e omezil a\u017e 80\u00a0% sv\u00e9 produkce, co\u017e je obrovsk\u00fd z\u00e1sah.<\/p>\n

Co je nyn\u00ed podle v\u00e1s kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9?<\/p>\n

Pot\u0159ebujeme okam\u017eit\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed. Ka\u017ed\u00e9 zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed znamen\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed tlak na sv\u011btovou ekonomiku. Pokud se situace rychle neuklidn\u00ed, recese je velmi re\u00e1ln\u00fdm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em\u00a0\u2013 a\u00a0dopadne na cel\u00fd sv\u011bt.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Jak vy osobn\u011b a\u00a0lid\u00e9 ve va\u0161em okol\u00ed vn\u00edmaj\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00fd konflikt v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu? Om\u00e1n zat\u00edm nebyl v\u00fdrazn\u011b zasa\u017een, a\u00a0proto se…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":72410,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[17,21,7825,16,5570,492,15090,205,18,19,22,20],"class_list":{"0":"post-72409","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-zpravy","8":"tag-headlines","9":"tag-hlavni-udalosti","10":"tag-konflikt-usa-izrael-iran","11":"tag-news","12":"tag-oman","13":"tag-plyn","14":"tag-recese","15":"tag-ropa","16":"tag-top-news","17":"tag-top-stories","18":"tag-udalosti-dne","19":"tag-zpravy"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116498910720008148","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72409","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72409"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72409\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/72410"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72409"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72409"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72409"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}