{"id":72991,"date":"2026-05-02T04:23:09","date_gmt":"2026-05-02T04:23:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/72991\/"},"modified":"2026-05-02T04:23:09","modified_gmt":"2026-05-02T04:23:09","slug":"ceske-ekonomice-hrozi-kvuli-valce-v-iranu-dalsi-sok","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/72991\/","title":{"rendered":"\u010cesk\u00e9 ekonomice hroz\u00ed kv\u016fli v\u00e1lce v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu dal\u0161\u00ed \u0161ok"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ekonomov\u00e9 st\u00e1le v\u011b\u0159\u00ed tomu, \u017ee dopady konfliktu na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b budou znateln\u011b m\u00edrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e tomu bylo v\u00a0d\u016fsledku energetick\u00e9 krize p\u0159ed \u010dty\u0159mi lety, kdy vypukla v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b. <\/p>\n

Z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed ov\u0161em na tom, jak rychle konflikt v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu skon\u010d\u00ed. Zat\u00edm brzk\u00e9mu konci v\u00e1lky nic nenasv\u011bd\u010duje.<\/p>\n

\u201eKa\u017ed\u00fdm dnem, kdy z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed trasy uzav\u0159en\u00e9, roste riziko m\u00e9n\u011b p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9ho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e\u00a0\u2013 tedy p\u0159episov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdhledu na r\u016fst sm\u011brem dol\u016f a\u00a0na inflaci sm\u011brem nahoru,\u201c podotkl ekonom \u010cSOB Dominik Rusinko.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

\u010cesk\u00e1 ekonomika v\u00a0prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed, kdy se dopady v\u00e1lky v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 neprojevily, vzrostla meziro\u010dn\u011b o\u00a02,1\u00a0procenta. V\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b dlouhotrvaj\u00edc\u00edho konfliktu by jej\u00ed v\u00fdkon podle ekonom\u016f zpomalil k\u00a01,5\u00a0procenta, a\u00a0naopak r\u016fst spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen by zrychlil minim\u00e1ln\u011b ke t\u0159em procent\u016fm z\u00a0nyn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed dvouprocentn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b.<\/p>\n

\u201eR\u016fst cen pohonn\u00fdch hmot je teprve za\u010d\u00e1tek. \u010casem se k\u00a0n\u011bmu bude p\u0159id\u00e1vat zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed mnoha dal\u0161\u00edch druh\u016f zbo\u017e\u00ed a\u00a0slu\u017eeb, pro n\u011b\u017e nedostatkov\u00e9 produkty z\u00a0Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd vstup. Takov\u00fdch p\u0159itom m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt velmi mnoho, od stavebn\u00edch materi\u00e1l\u016f p\u0159es mikro\u010dipy a\u017e po potraviny,\u201c \u0159ekl Novink\u00e1m analytik spole\u010dnosti Investika V\u00edt Hradil.<\/p>\n

Zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed podle n\u011bj bude m\u00edt za n\u00e1sledek ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed re\u00e1ln\u00e9 v\u00fdd\u011blky dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed, co\u017e v\u00a0kombinaci se zhor\u0161en\u00fdm sentimentem povede k\u00a0poklesu jejich spot\u0159eby.<\/p>\n

Firmy u\u017e omezily investice<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 kv\u016fli drah\u00fdm paliv\u016fm a\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm n\u00e1klad\u016fm za\u010daly omezovat investi\u010dn\u00ed aktivitu firmy. \u201ePo vypuknut\u00ed v\u00e1lky v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu se mnoh\u00e9 rozhodly investice utlumit nebo odlo\u017eit,\u201c potvrdil viceprezident Svazu pr\u016fmyslu pro hospod\u00e1\u0159skou politiku Martin Jahn.<\/p>\n

Probl\u00e9mem pro \u010cesko je i\u00a0to, \u017ee se op\u011bt zadrh\u00e1v\u00e1 n\u011bmeck\u00e1 ekonomika, na jej\u00edm\u017e v\u00fdkonu je \u010desk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl z\u00a0velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti z\u00e1visl\u00fd.<\/p>\n

Pokud by se konflikt protahoval a\u00a0ropa z\u016fstala dlouho drah\u00e1, nejen\u017ee by s\u00edlily infla\u010dn\u00ed tlaky, ale tak\u00e9 by podle hlavn\u00edho ekonoma Komer\u010dn\u00ed banky Jana Vejm\u011blka hrozilo oslabov\u00e1n\u00ed koruny i\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb \u010ceskou n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bankou. <\/p>\n

\u201eR\u016fst hrub\u00e9ho dom\u00e1c\u00edho produktu by se d\u00e1l zpomalil, ale d\u00edky vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed odolnosti ekonomiky ne\u010dek\u00e1me dramatick\u00fd propad,\u201c m\u00edrnil obavy. <\/p>\n

I\u00a0tak by v\u0161ak podle n\u011bj hrozilo riziko takzvan\u00e9 stagflace, kdy doch\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0soub\u011bhu vy\u0161\u0161\u00edho r\u016fstu cen a\u00a0stagnaci ekonomiky, s\u00a0\u010d\u00edm\u017e mohou vl\u00e1dy i\u00a0centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky jen obt\u00ed\u017en\u011b bojovat.<\/p>\n

Rizikem je, \u017ee pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, v\u00a0n\u00ed\u017e po \u00fatoc\u00edch USA a\u00a0Izrael na \u00cdr\u00e1n do\u0161lo k\u00a0\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu zablokov\u00e1n\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu a\u00a0blok\u00e1d\u011b \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f, vy\u017eene ceny energi\u00ed d\u00e1l v\u00fdrazn\u011b nahoru.<\/p>\n

\u201eV tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b bychom se ji\u017e bavili o\u00a0zpomalen\u00ed HDP pod dv\u011b procenta a\u00a0r\u016fstu inflace ke t\u0159em procent\u016fm. Hodn\u011b by z\u00e1le\u017eelo na tom, jak by se vyv\u00edjela cena zemn\u00edho plynu. Jestli by se cena pohybovala v\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011bru kolem 50\u00a0eur za megawatthodinu nebo v\u00fdrazn\u011bji v\u00fd\u0161e,\u201c poznamenal analytik spole\u010dnosti Citfin Miroslav Nov\u00e1k. <\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Podle n\u011bj by tak rostla pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee \u010cNB zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby. \u201eA\u00a0pokud by koruna oslabovala, tak si dovedu p\u0159edstavit i\u00a0devizov\u00e9 intervence na podporu koruny jako v\u00a0roce 2022,\u201c \u0159ekl.<\/p>\n

Dodal, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 zdra\u017een\u00ed plynu a\u00a0ropy by pak podle n\u011bj mohlo znamenat recesi p\u0159i n\u00e1r\u016fstu nezam\u011bstnanosti a\u00a0inflaci nad t\u0159i procenta.<\/p>\n

Loni \u010desk\u00e1 ekonomika p\u0159itom vzrostla o\u00a02,6\u00a0procenta. \u201eV p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b krat\u0161\u00edho konfliktu by se st\u00e1le v\u00fdkon na\u0161eho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed mohl zv\u00fd\u0161it o\u00a0v\u00edce ne\u017e dv\u011b procenta, ale pokud se v\u00e1lka prot\u00e1hne na n\u011bkolik m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, jak p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 n\u00e1\u0161 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 del\u0161\u00edho konfliktu, r\u016fst poklesne sm\u011brem k\u00a01,5\u00a0procenta,\u201c p\u0159idala progn\u00f3zu za Raiffeisenbank jej\u00ed analyti\u010dka Tereza Kr\u010dek.<\/p>\n

Motorem hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho r\u016fstu z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 spot\u0159eba dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed, kv\u016fli zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u0161ak mohou i\u00a0podle n\u00ed v\u00edce \u0161et\u0159it. \u201eV p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b del\u0161\u00edho konfliktu zahrani\u010dn\u00ed popt\u00e1vka poklesne, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v\u00a0Asii, a\u00a0naopak dovoz se zejm\u00e9na skrze ceny komodit prodra\u017e\u00ed,\u201c popsala ekonomka.<\/p>\n

Covidov\u00fd \u0161ok, n\u00e1sledovan\u00fd energetick\u00fdm \u0161okem, kter\u00e9 zanechaly v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 \u0161r\u00e1my na \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomice, se p\u0159itom podle n\u00ed st\u00e1le nepoda\u0159ilo zcela zacelit. <\/p>\n

\u201eA je tu hrozba nov\u00e9ho \u0161oku. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b tentokr\u00e1t jsme v\u00a0lep\u0161\u00ed pozici. Inflace je nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed za n\u011bkolik let a\u00a0na\u0161e z\u00e1vislost na dovozu komodit z\u00a0Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu je mnohem ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e byla z\u00a0Ruska p\u0159ed rokem 2022,\u201c doplnila s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee u\u017e p\u0159ed za\u010d\u00e1tkem v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b v\u00a0lednu 2022\u00a0dosahovala inflace v\u00a0\u010cR vysok\u00fdch 9,9\u00a0procenta.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Ekonomov\u00e9 st\u00e1le v\u011b\u0159\u00ed tomu, \u017ee dopady konfliktu na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b budou znateln\u011b m\u00edrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e tomu bylo v\u00a0d\u016fsledku energetick\u00e9…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":72992,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[67,68,708,688,686,492,469,15090,205],"class_list":{"0":"post-72991","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-byznys","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-byznys","10":"tag-ekonomika","11":"tag-hruby-domaci-produkt-hdp","12":"tag-inflace","13":"tag-plyn","14":"tag-pohonne-hmoty","15":"tag-recese","16":"tag-ropa"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116503078747687029","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72991","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72991"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72991\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/72992"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72991"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72991"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72991"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}