\u201eSpojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty maj\u00ed dost raket, aby mohly pokra\u010dovat v\u00a0t\u00e9to v\u00e1lce p\u0159i jak\u00e9mkoliv z\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f. Skute\u010dn\u00e9 riziko spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 ve v\u00e1lk\u00e1ch budouc\u00edch a\u00a0bude trvat je\u0161t\u011b mnoho let,\u201c zn\u00ed jeden z\u00a0hlavn\u00edch z\u00e1v\u011br\u016f anal\u00fdzy CSIS.<\/p>\n Jej\u00ed auto\u0159i zmapovali p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dnou v\u00fd\u0161i z\u00e1sob a\u00a0ji\u017e napl\u00e1novan\u00e9 budouc\u00ed dod\u00e1vky celkem sedmi kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch druh\u016f americk\u00e9 munice, na\u010de\u017e na z\u00e1klad\u011b ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch informac\u00ed o\u00a0po\u010dtu zasa\u017een\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f, vlastn\u00edch znalost\u00ed o\u00a0zaveden\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch postupech a\u00a0\u010d\u00edsel z\u00a0minul\u00fdch americk\u00fdch operac\u00ed odhadli po\u010det i\u00a0pou\u017eit\u00fdch kus\u016f b\u011bhem 39\u00a0dn\u00ed v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n V\u00fdsledkem je n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed tabulka:<\/p>\n Typ municeP\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 z\u00e1sobaSpot\u0159eba na v\u00e1lku v \u00cdr\u00e1nuDoba doru\u010den\u00ed v m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edchTomahawk3 1001 000+47JASSM4 4001 100+48PrSM9040-7046SM-3410130-25064SM-6 1 160190-370 53THAAD360190-29053Patriot2 3301 060-1 43042<\/p>\n Jak m\u016f\u017eete vid\u011bt, u\u00a0\u010dty\u0159 kategori\u00ed USA podle odhad\u016f \u201esp\u00e1lily\u201c nejsp\u00ed\u0161 a\u017e p\u0159es polovinu celkov\u00e9 p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 z\u00e1soby, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e dopln\u011bn\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee trvat a\u017e n\u011bkolik let. Ve v\u0161ech p\u0159\u00edpadech jde toti\u017e o\u00a0rakety, jejich\u017e v\u00fdroba je nejen drah\u00e1, ale i\u00a0\u010dasov\u011b n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e1.<\/p>\n \u201eZmen\u0161en\u00ed z\u00e1sob t\u00e9to munice p\u0159edstavuje bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed riziko. V\u00e1lka proti srovnateln\u011b siln\u00e9mu soupe\u0159i USA, jak\u00fdm by mohla b\u00fdt \u010c\u00edna, by si \u017e\u00e1dala je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edc munice ne\u017e tato v\u00e1lka. U\u017e p\u0159ed n\u00ed byly nav\u00edc z\u00e1soby nedostate\u010dn\u00e9, tak\u017ee jejich sou\u010dasn\u00e1 v\u00fd\u0161e by v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b budouc\u00edho konfliktu omezovala opera\u010dn\u00ed mo\u017enosti USA,\u201c zhodnotili auto\u0159i anal\u00fdzy v\u00fdznam muni\u010dn\u00edch nedostatk\u016f.<\/p>\n Obavy o\u00a0Tchaj-wan<\/p>\n Jak u\u017e jsme zm\u00ednili, nejde jen o\u00a0odhad dvojice expert\u016f. Podle \u010dl\u00e1nku<\/a> CNN, odvol\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edho se na sv\u00e9 zdroje v\u00a0Pentagonu, \u010d\u00edsla CSIS \u201evelmi bl\u00edzce lad\u00ed\u201c s\u00a0ofici\u00e1ln\u00edmi neve\u0159ejn\u00fdmi daty. A\u00a0obdobn\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla uvedly<\/a> i\u00a0zdroje den\u00edku New York Times (NYT), kter\u00e9 nav\u00edc nab\u00eddly i\u00a0hodn\u011b podobn\u00e9 dopl\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed hodnocen\u00ed. <\/p>\n \u201eV\u00e1lka v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu vys\u00e1la zna\u010dnou \u010d\u00e1st americk\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1soby munice a\u00a0donutila Pentagon p\u0159esunout bomby, rakety a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed zbran\u011b z\u00a0Asie a\u00a0Evropy na Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod. Tyto region\u00e1ln\u00ed velitelstv\u00ed jsou te\u010f kv\u016fli tomu m\u00e9n\u011b p\u0159ipraven\u00e9 konfrontovat potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed protivn\u00edky, jako m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt Rusko nebo \u010c\u00edna, a\u00a0donutily USA hledat cesty, jak zv\u00fd\u0161it produkci,\u201c zn\u00ed shrnut\u00ed v\u00fdpov\u011bd\u00ed zdroj\u016f NYT z\u00a0Trumpovy administrativy a\u00a0Kongresu. <\/p>\n D\u00e1le p\u0159esnost odhad\u016f potvrdil<\/a> s\u00a0odvol\u00e1n\u00edm na sv\u00e9 zdroje i\u00a0den\u00edk Wall Street Journal, kter\u00e9mu z\u00e1rove\u0148 m\u011bli \u201en\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed\u201c lid\u00e9 (jin\u00ed to odm\u00edtli) z\u00a0administrativy \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee USA by kv\u016fli spot\u0159eb\u011b na v\u00e1lku v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu nemohly realizovat pohotovostn\u00ed pl\u00e1n na obranu Tchaj-wanu p\u0159ed \u010c\u00ednou v\u00a0pln\u00e9m rozsahu, pokud by k\u00a0n\u00ed do\u0161lo v\u00a0bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti. <\/p>\n Pro zaj\u00edmavost m\u016f\u017eeme p\u0159idat i\u00a0odkaz na \u010dl\u00e1nek<\/a> \u010dasopisu Atlantic, podle kter\u00e9ho m\u011bl obavy ohledn\u011b nedostatku munice za zav\u0159en\u00fdmi dve\u0159mi vyj\u00e1d\u0159it i\u00a0viceprezident J. D. Vance, kter\u00fd se pr\u00fd tak\u00e9 domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee Pentagon obecn\u011b neinformuje ve\u0159ejnost ani prezidenta o\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu p\u0159esn\u011b a\u00a0situaci um\u011ble zleh\u010duje. <\/p>\n Dodejme, \u017ee podle \u0159ady expert\u016f na obranu byly stavy americk\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 munice v\u00a0kontextu hrozby v\u00e1lky s\u00a0\u010c\u00ednou tristn\u00ed u\u017e dlouho p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu. Nap\u0159\u00edklad podle s\u00e9rie v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch her<\/a> CSIS z\u00a0roku 2023\u00a0by n\u011bkter\u00e9 rakety USA do\u0161ly u\u017e po m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e t\u00fddnu v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed v\u00a0Tchajwansk\u00e9 \u00fa\u017ein\u011b (nejde<\/a> p\u0159itom zdaleka o\u00a0ojedin\u011blou zpr\u00e1vu s\u00a0podobn\u00fdm vyzn\u011bn\u00edm). <\/p>\n Dost nen\u00ed munice do PVO, ale ani\u00a0\u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch raket <\/p>\n Kdy\u017e se pod\u00edv\u00e1me do tabulky kritick\u00fdch druh\u016f st\u0159el, nep\u0159ekvapiv\u011b v\u00a0nich dominuje munice do protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany (PVO). Pr\u00e1v\u011b u\u00a0t\u011bch se ostatn\u011b debatovalo<\/a> i\u00a0o\u00a0riziku \u00fapln\u00e9ho vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee by \u00cdr\u00e1n byl schopn\u00fd vyp\u00e1lit ve\u0161ker\u00e9 svoje z\u00e1soby raket.<\/p>\n Podle CSIS k\u00a0tomu mo\u017en\u00e1 nebylo daleko v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b munice do protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu THAAD, kter\u00fd je ur\u010den\u00fd k\u00a0likvidaci balistick\u00fdch raket s\u00a0del\u0161\u00edm dost\u0159elem ve vysok\u00fdch v\u00fd\u0161k\u00e1ch. Spot\u0159ebov\u00e1no toti\u017e m\u011blo b\u00fdt n\u011bco mezi 53\u00a0% a\u017e 80\u00a0% glob\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1soby.<\/p>\n Druhou nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed procentu\u00e1ln\u00ed spot\u0159ebu mezi obrannou munic\u00ed analytici odhadli u\u00a0raket do protivzdu\u0161n\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f Patriot, jejich\u017e celkov\u00e1 z\u00e1soba se m\u011bla zmen\u0161it o\u00a046\u00a0% a\u017e 61\u00a0%. Zaj\u00edmav\u00e1 je pozn\u00e1mka, \u017ee nap\u0159\u00edklad Ukrajina t\u011bchto raket od USA a\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch spojenc\u016f za celou v\u00e1lku m\u011bla dostat jen 600, zat\u00edmco Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty jich p\u0159i obran\u011b proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu letos vyp\u00e1lily p\u0159es tis\u00edc a\u00a0v\u011bt\u0161inu z\u00a0toho nav\u00edc jen v\u00a0prvn\u00edch t\u0159ech dnech. <\/p>\n Necelou t\u0159etinu a\u017e 61\u00a0% USA vypot\u0159ebovaly tak\u00e9 ze z\u00e1sob raket Standard Missile 3 (SM-3), co\u017e je munice do PVO instalovan\u00e9 na lod\u00edch. <\/p>\n Nezanedbateln\u00e1 ale byla spot\u0159eba i\u00a0u n\u011bkter\u00fdch \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch raket. Nap\u0159\u00edklad z\u00e1soby Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) maj\u00ed b\u00fdt vy\u010derpan\u00e9 ze\u00a044\u00a0% a\u017e 78\u00a0%. Podle d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch zpr\u00e1v<\/a> m\u00e9di\u00ed n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edci m\u011bli dokonce \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee u\u017e nezb\u00fdvaj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9. Jde o\u00a0rakety odpalovan\u00e9 z\u00a0pozemn\u00edch raketomet\u016f, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed b\u00fdt n\u00e1hradou za ATACMS a\u00a0jsou ve v\u00fdzbroji teprve kr\u00e1tce.<\/p>\n Alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed je pak spot\u0159eba i\u00a0u raket Tomahawk, kter\u00e1 m\u011bla glob\u00e1ln\u00ed arzen\u00e1l sn\u00ed\u017eit sice \u201ejen\u201c o\u00a0t\u0159etinu, ale vzhledem k\u00a0tomu, \u017ee jde o\u00a0hlavn\u00ed pil\u00ed\u0159 americk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed raketov\u00e9 \u00fadern\u00e9 s\u00edly, jde o\u00a0z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo. CSIS uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee vy\u010derp\u00e1ny byly pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b skoro v\u0161echny z\u00e1soby pro Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod. Dodejme, \u017ee u\u017e se objevily zpr\u00e1vy<\/a>, \u017ee Japonsko se \u00fadajn\u011b v\u00a0d\u016fsledku v\u00e1lky p\u0159ipravuje na zdr\u017een\u00ed sv\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek objednan\u00fdch Tomahawk\u016f.<\/p>\n V podstat\u011b u\u00a0v\u0161ech t\u011bchto kategori\u00ed plat\u00ed, \u017ee jejich dostupn\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed nebylo ide\u00e1ln\u00ed u\u017e p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou a\u00a0\u0159ada z\u00a0nich se ve velk\u00e9m pou\u017e\u00edvala i\u00a0loni p\u0159i 12denn\u00ed v\u00e1lce nebo p\u0159i \u00fatoc\u00edch na H\u00fath\u00ede v\u00a0Jemenu.<\/p>\n Alternativy jsou, ale nedokonal\u00e9 a\u00a0ne pro v\u0161echno<\/p>\n Auto\u0159i anal\u00fdzy upozor\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee pro n\u011bkter\u00e9 ze zkouman\u00fdch typ\u016f maj\u00ed USA k\u00a0dispozici po\u010detn\u011b hojn\u00e9 a\u00a0z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u00fdrazn\u011b levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed alternativy. Ty ale v\u011bt\u0161inou maj\u00ed z\u00e1rove\u0148 i\u00a0n\u011bjak\u00e9 nev\u00fdhody. <\/p>\n Za p\u0159\u00edklad m\u016f\u017eeme d\u00e1t t\u0159eba nav\u00e1d\u011bc\u00ed soupravy JDAM, kter\u00e9 z\u00a0\u201ehloup\u00fdch\u201c bomb shazovan\u00fdch z\u00a0letadel ud\u011blaj\u00ed nav\u00e1d\u011bnou munici. Tyto zbran\u011b se sice raket\u00e1m vyrovnaj\u00ed v\u00a0destruktivn\u00ed s\u00edle a\u00a0USA jich maj\u00ed dostatek, ale nedaj\u00ed se odpalovat jinak ne\u017e z\u00a0letadla, kter\u00e9 mus\u00ed b\u00fdt bl\u00edzko c\u00edli, tak\u017ee typicky jde o\u00a0riskantn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zp\u016fsob \u00fatoku, ne\u017e jak\u00fdm je nap\u0159\u00edklad odpal rakety vybaven\u00e9 PVO a\u00a0p\u00e1l\u00edc\u00ed z\u00a0v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vzd\u00e1lenosti od \u00fazem\u00ed kontrolovan\u00e9ho nep\u0159\u00edtelem. Podobn\u011b nap\u0159\u00edklad PrSM maj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed dost\u0159el ne\u017e ATACMS a\u00a0takhle bychom je\u0161t\u011b mohli pokra\u010dovat dlouho.<\/p>\n V kategori\u00edch munice do PVO je to trochu jin\u00e9. V\u00a0obran\u011b proti dron\u016fm se toti\u017e sice nab\u00edz\u00ed i\u00a0alternativy, kter\u00e9 vlastn\u011b \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 nev\u00fdhody nemaj\u00ed, ale u\u00a0nich je zase probl\u00e9m v\u00a0tom, \u017ee si je zat\u00edm USA pln\u011b neosvojily. Pro obranu proti balistick\u00fdm raket\u00e1m (tedy rakety THAAD, Patriot a\u00a0SM) se podle CSIS naopak v\u016fbec \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 alternativy ani nenab\u00edz\u00ed.<\/p>\n V\u00e1\u017en\u011b maj\u00ed USA dost munice na \u00cdr\u00e1n?<\/p>\n P\u0159i pohledu na po\u010dty pou\u017eit\u00e9 munice a\u00a0dobu trv\u00e1n\u00ed operace Epic Fury se m\u016f\u017ee zd\u00e1t zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed, \u017ee by USA m\u011bly m\u00edt dost munice na p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 \u201epokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky v\u00a0jak\u00e9mkoli z\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f\u201c. Nen\u00ed snad st\u00e1le je\u0161t\u011b mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee boje se znovu rozho\u0159\u00ed a\u00a0potrvaj\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed t\u00fddny?<\/p>\n Mo\u017en\u00e9 to je a\u00a0auto\u0159i anal\u00fdzy to nijak nevyvrac\u00ed. Sv\u00e9 hodnocen\u00ed, \u017ee na \u00cdr\u00e1n maj\u00ed USA munice dostatek, toti\u017e stav\u00ed prim\u00e1rn\u011b na tom, \u017ee zdaleka nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159ebu cenn\u00e9 munice USA vyk\u00e1zaly v\u00a0prvn\u00edch hodin\u00e1ch a\u00a0dnech v\u00e1lky, na\u010de\u017e ji v\u00fdznamn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eily, tak\u017ee t\u0159eba dal\u0161\u00edch 39\u00a0dn\u00ed by bylo v\u00fdznamn\u011b \u201elevn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch\u201c ne\u017e ty p\u0159edchoz\u00ed.<\/p>\n V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u00fatok\u016f na pozemn\u00ed c\u00edle za to m\u016f\u017eou krom\u011b celkov\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00edho po\u010dtu c\u00edl\u016f pr\u00e1v\u011b v\u00fd\u0161e zmi\u0148ovan\u00e9 alternativy, jejich\u017e vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed uleh\u010duje v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 destrukce \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany. V\u011bt\u0161\u00ed zapojen\u00ed alternativ se d\u00e1 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat i\u00a0u PVO, kde nav\u00edc u\u017e po asi 10\u00a0dnech konfliktu dramaticky klesl<\/a> nejen po\u010det vyp\u00e1len\u00fdch \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch raket, ale i\u00a0dron\u016f.<\/p>\n Probl\u00e9m by nastal v\u00a0moment\u011b, kdy by se uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n dok\u00e1zal p\u0159es p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed obnovit v\u00fdznamnou \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9 dronov\u00e9 a\u00a0raketov\u00e9 s\u00edly.<\/p>\n Probl\u00e9m se \u0159e\u0161\u00ed, ale potrv\u00e1 to<\/p>\n Americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump a\u00a0jeho administrativa sice probl\u00e9m ve\u0159ejn\u011b opakovan\u011b bagatelizovali, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 je vid\u011bt, \u017ee na dopln\u011bn\u00ed z\u00e1sob u\u017e n\u011bjakou dobu pracuj\u00ed.<\/p>\n B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm m\u011bl podle prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed<\/a> ze za\u010d\u00e1tku b\u0159ezna dostat potvrzen\u00ed od nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch americk\u00fdch v\u00fdrobc\u016f zbran\u00ed, \u017ee tyto spole\u010dnosti jsou odhodlan\u00e9 \u010dty\u0159n\u00e1sobn\u011b nav\u00fd\u0161it produkci kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch zbran\u00ed a\u00a0\u017ee expanze mnoh\u00fdch v\u00fdrobn\u00edch linek se rozb\u011bhla u\u017e t\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce p\u0159edt\u00edm.<\/p>\n Takov\u00e9 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed by samo o\u00a0sob\u011b sice nemuselo moc znamenat, proto\u017ee neobsahuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed z\u00e1vazky k\u00a0nov\u00fdm investic\u00edm ani kontrakty s\u00a0konkr\u00e9tn\u00edmi daty dod\u00e1vek. N\u011bjak\u00e9 dohody u\u017e se ale objevily (nap\u0159\u00edklad na rakety Patriot<\/a> a\u00a0THAAD<\/a>) a\u00a0vedle nich nap\u0159\u00edklad\u00a0to, \u017ee Lockheed Martin v\u00fdznamn\u011b roz\u0161i\u0159uje<\/a> v\u00fdrobu.<\/p>\n \u017de B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm opravdu chce ve velk\u00e9m nakupovat munici, nicm\u00e9n\u011b siln\u011b nazna\u010duje hlavn\u011b i\u00a0jeho nov\u00fd n\u00e1vrh<\/a> na rozpo\u010det na fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed rok 2027.\u00a0Pokud by byl toti\u017e p\u0159ijat v\u00a0nezm\u011bn\u011bn\u00e9 podob\u011b, m\u011bla by v\u00a0roce 2027\u00a0americk\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka p\u0159ev\u00fd\u0161it dosud spot\u0159ebovan\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu dokonce ve v\u0161ech sedmi sledovan\u00fdch kategori\u00edch munice.<\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/1777889473_862_iran.jpeg\")
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