{"id":75849,"date":"2026-05-05T04:12:08","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T04:12:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/75849\/"},"modified":"2026-05-05T04:12:08","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T04:12:08","slug":"rust-se-temer-zastavil-a-ceny-rostou-evropa-se-dostava-na-hranu-velmi-nebezpecneho-stavu-stagflace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/75849\/","title":{"rendered":"R\u016fst se t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 zastavil a ceny rostou. Evropa se dost\u00e1v\u00e1 na hranu velmi nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9ho stavu: stagflace"},"content":{"rendered":"

Je to jedna z nejhor\u0161\u00edch konstelac\u00ed, proto\u017ee se s n\u00ed d\u00e1 jen velmi t\u011b\u017eko n\u011bco d\u011blat. Ekonomika sl\u00e1bne a m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed ke stagnaci, ceny naopak stoupaj\u00ed. A skoro ka\u017ed\u00fd z\u00e1sah politik\u016f nebo centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank\u00e9\u0159\u016f v\u00fdrazn\u011b jednu z t\u011bch v\u011bc\u00ed zhor\u0161\u00ed. Ke stagnaci se postupn\u011b p\u0159id\u00e1v\u00e1 i zmen\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se nab\u00eddka pr\u00e1ce. Podle aktu\u00e1ln\u00edch dat za prvn\u00ed \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed leto\u0161n\u00edho roku se na hranu t\u00e9to nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 konstelace dost\u00e1v\u00e1 Evropa.\u00a0<\/p>\n

R\u016fst nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch evropsk\u00fdch ekonomik se t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 zastavil. \u010cesko zat\u00edm vzrostlo o 2,1 procenta. U n\u00e1s ale p\u00e1d tradi\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed pozd\u011bji ne\u017e v N\u011bmecku<\/a>,\u00a0na kter\u00e9 jsme jako na na\u0161eho nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho obchodn\u00edho partnera \u00fazce nav\u00e1z\u00e1ni. To zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed b\u00fdv\u00e1 p\u016fl roku. Ministryn\u011b financ\u00ed Alena Schillerov\u00e1 u\u017e minul\u00fd t\u00fdden ozn\u00e1mila, \u017ee sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 zastaven\u00ed r\u016fstu je velmi re\u00e1ln\u00fd, pokud bude sou\u010dasn\u00e1 energetick\u00e1 krize vyvolan\u00e1 konfliktem na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b pokra\u010dovat.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Velk\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 ekonomiky se dostaly na hranu stagflace u\u017e v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku, p\u0159esto\u017ee Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 a Izraelci za\u00fato\u010dili na \u00cdr\u00e1n a\u017e 28. \u00fanora. Prudk\u00fd vzestup cen ropy a energi\u00ed ovlivnil jen jeden m\u011bs\u00edc prvn\u00edho kvart\u00e1lu, za n\u011bj\u017e aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed data p\u0159i\u0161la. D\u00e1 se o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee bez z\u00e1sadn\u00edho obratu na trhu s ropou a energiemi bude druh\u00fd kvart\u00e1l p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm stejn\u00fd.\u00a0<\/p>\n

N\u011bmeck\u00e1 stagnace a zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed dluh\u016f<\/p>\n

N\u011bmecko vzrostlo v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed v porovn\u00e1n\u00ed se stejn\u00fdm obdob\u00edm minul\u00e9ho roku o pouh\u00e1 0,3 procenta. U nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 ekonomiky bohu\u017eel nen\u00ed balancov\u00e1n\u00ed na hran\u011b stagnace nic nov\u00e9ho. Od konce roku 2022, kdy se velmi kr\u00e1tce probrala z covidov\u00e9 krize, nikdy nevzrostla o v\u00edce ne\u017e procento. Ve stagnaci se pl\u00e1c\u00e1 u\u017e \u010dtvrt\u00fd rok.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ceny v N\u011bmecku u\u017e naopak za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed stoupat. Podle posledn\u00edch dat za duben vzrostly o 2,9 procenta. To je nejrychlej\u0161\u00ed vzestup od ledna 2024. Zmen\u0161uje se i nab\u00eddka pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst. Po\u010det lid\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed v zemi pracuj\u00ed, kles\u00e1 u\u017e des\u00e1t\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc v \u0159ad\u011b. V b\u0159eznu jich bylo proti \u00fanoru o dal\u0161\u00edch 0,3 procenta m\u00e9n\u011b.\u00a0<\/p>\n

K tomu se p\u0159id\u00e1v\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed velmi nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd rys, kter\u00fd je pro stagfla\u010dn\u00ed ekonomiky typick\u00fd. Politici se sna\u017e\u00ed zpravidla o\u017eivovat skom\u00edraj\u00edc\u00ed ekonomiky ve\u0159ejn\u00fdmi investicemi, co\u017e d\u00e1l prohlubuje dluhy. V N\u011bmecku se k tomu p\u0159id\u00e1vaj\u00ed dlouho zanedb\u00e1van\u00e9 investice do obrany a infrastruktury. To se nem\u016f\u017ee neprojevit v prudk\u00e9m r\u016fstu \u00farok\u016f ze st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluh\u016f. Doba, kdy n\u011bmeck\u00e9 \u201ebunds\u201c, st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy, b\u00fdvaly bezpe\u010dn\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edstavem s minim\u00e1ln\u00edm \u00farokem, je d\u00e1vno pry\u010d.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00daroky jsou nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed od vzniku eura. N\u011bmci si p\u016fj\u010duj\u00ed na deset let za 3,07 procenta. Je\u0161t\u011b v roce 2022 byly v\u00fdnosy z n\u011bmeck\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f z\u00e1porn\u00e9. Investo\u0159i platili za to, \u017ee N\u011bmc\u016fm mohli p\u016fj\u010dovat a parkovat u nich sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ne\u0161\u0165astn\u00e1 inspirace Aleny Schillerov\u00e9<\/p>\n

Rozd\u00edl mezi n\u011bmeck\u00fdmi \u00faroky a sazbami, za kter\u00e9 si p\u016fj\u010duj\u00ed siln\u011b zadlu\u017een\u00e9 zem\u011b na jihu Evropy, je nejmen\u0161\u00ed v historii spole\u010dn\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 m\u011bny. Francouzi si na deset let p\u016fj\u010duj\u00ed za 3,69 procenta, Italov\u00e9 za 3,87, \u0158ekov\u00e9 za 3,82, \u0160pan\u011bl\u00e9 za 3,50 a Portugalci za 3,45 procenta.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Jen pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed: prudk\u00fd r\u016fst \u00farok\u016f zdaleka nezasahuje v\u0161echny zem\u011b. Zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 v dne\u0161n\u00ed dob\u011b investo\u0159i v sou\u010dasn\u00e9m chaosu hledaj\u00ed bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstavy. \u0160v\u00fdca\u0159i si p\u016fj\u010duj\u00ed na deset let za 0,39 procenta. Je\u0161t\u011b za covidu a na za\u010d\u00e1tku rusk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku na Ukrajinu pat\u0159ili N\u011bmci do stejn\u00e9 kategorie. Dnes maj\u00ed \u00faroky skoro osmkr\u00e1t vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed. Tak prudk\u00e9 b\u00fdvaj\u00ed sklony stagnace a st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluh\u016f.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"Jak<\/a>Jak se probrat ze stagnace? Sta\u0148me se o\u00e1zou n\u00edzk\u00fdch dan\u00ed, pom\u016f\u017ee to prosperit\u011b i\u00a0dluh\u016fm <\/a><\/p>\n

Francouzsk\u00e1 ekonomika se ale dost\u00e1v\u00e1 do podobn\u00e9ho stavu. V prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku sice je\u0161t\u011b rostla v porovn\u00e1n\u00ed s p\u0159edchoz\u00edm obdob\u00edm o 1,1 procenta, oproti posledn\u00edmu \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku se ale vzestup druh\u00e9 nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ekonomiky Evropy \u00fapln\u011b zastavil. Inflace se zat\u00edm dr\u017e\u00ed na 2,2 procentech, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm proto, \u017ee Francie s velmi siln\u00fdm j\u00e1drem m\u00e1 energetiku ve v\u00fdrazn\u011b lep\u0161\u00edm stavu ne\u017e N\u011bmecko.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A proto\u017ee It\u00e1lie se tak\u00e9 dostala na hranu stagnace, nen\u00ed p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e9, \u017ee cel\u00e1 euroz\u00f3na vzrostla v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed leto\u0161n\u00edho roku jen o 0,1 procenta.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ministryn\u011b financ\u00ed Alena Schillerov\u00e1\u00a0se odvol\u00e1v\u00e1 na n\u011bmeck\u00fd p\u0159\u00edpad<\/a>,\u00a0kdy\u017e chce prolomit dluhov\u00e9 stropy a nepo\u010d\u00edtat do nich v\u00fddaje na infrastrukturu a obranu. To je ale jen politick\u00e1 hra s \u010d\u00edsly pro voli\u010de. Investory, kte\u0159\u00ed nakupuj\u00ed dluhopisy, zaj\u00edmaj\u00ed celkov\u00e9 dluhy. Je jim jedno, co do nich vl\u00e1dy po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed a co ne. N\u00e1m u\u017e velmi rychle rostou \u00faroky. V pond\u011bl\u00ed se u desetilet\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eily p\u011bti procent\u016fm. Ka\u017ed\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed zadlu\u017een\u00ed je d\u00e1l zvedne.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Stagflace nejh\u016f\u0159 zasahuje ty, kdo m\u011bli probl\u00e9my u\u017e p\u0159ed jej\u00edm n\u00e1stupem \u2013 tedy ty, kdo maj\u00ed velk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhy, m\u00e1lo odolnou energetiku a slab\u00fd r\u016fst. N\u011bmci byli p\u0159irozen\u011b nejzraniteln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Sv\u011bt m\u00e1 za sebou v pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 historii n\u011bkolik t\u011b\u017ek\u00fdch stagflac\u00ed. Ty nejv\u00e1\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed, kdy\u017e p\u0159ijde v\u00e1\u017en\u00fd \u0161ok a n\u011bjak\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed nebo suroviny kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b chyb\u00ed. Proto byly nejt\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed ty po obou ropn\u00fdch \u0161oc\u00edch v letech 1973 a 1979. P\u0159inesly \u00e9ry v\u00fdrazn\u00e9ho zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Evropa m\u00e1 za sebou \u010derstvou zku\u0161enost z \u00e9ry pandemie covidu a rusk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku na Ukrajinu. Dal\u0161\u00ed \u0161ok p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed d\u0159\u00edv, ne\u017e se z t\u011bch prvn\u00edch dvou zvl\u00e1dla vzpamatovat a pou\u010dit. Te\u010f se bude u\u010dit v ostr\u00e9m provozu. Nal\u00e9vat st\u00e1tn\u00ed pen\u00edze do ekonomiky je ale ten nejhor\u0161\u00ed recept na infla\u010dn\u00ed a dluhov\u00e9 spir\u00e1ly. Ty op\u011bt nejv\u00edc zas\u00e1hnou ty nejslab\u0161\u00ed \u2013 zem\u011b i lidi.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Je to jedna z nejhor\u0161\u00edch konstelac\u00ed, proto\u017ee se s n\u00ed d\u00e1 jen velmi t\u011b\u017eko n\u011bco d\u011blat. Ekonomika sl\u00e1bne…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":75850,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[297,42,708,109,108,7968,106,1731,375,110,9775,11737],"class_list":{"0":"post-75849","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-evropa","8":"tag-alena-schillerova","9":"tag-cesko","10":"tag-ekonomika","11":"tag-europa","12":"tag-europe","13":"tag-eurozona","14":"tag-evropa","15":"tag-nemci","16":"tag-nemecko","17":"tag-ukrajina","18":"tag-urok","19":"tag-valka-v-iranu"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116520022360965440","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75849","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75849"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75849\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/75850"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75849"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75849"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75849"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}