{"id":78419,"date":"2026-05-07T12:03:14","date_gmt":"2026-05-07T12:03:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/78419\/"},"modified":"2026-05-07T12:03:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-07T12:03:14","slug":"komodity-jsou-nejdrazsi-za-13-let-pociti-to-nejchudsi-domacnosti-i-cele-zeme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/78419\/","title":{"rendered":"Komodity jsou nejdra\u017e\u0161\u00ed za 13\u00a0let. Poc\u00edt\u00ed to nejchud\u0161\u00ed dom\u00e1cnosti i\u00a0cel\u00e9 zem\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"

Od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku vysko\u010dily na komoditn\u00edch trz\u00edch ceny benzinu<\/a>, nafty a\u00a0ropy o\u00a0v\u00edce ne\u017e sto procent. O\u00a0des\u00edtky procent pak za zhruba \u010dty\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce zdra\u017eily i\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed suroviny od bavlny p\u0159es \u0159epku a\u00a0p\u0161enici a\u017e po hlin\u00edk<\/a> \u010di nikl<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Ceny komodit jsou nyn\u00ed podle ukazatele Bloomberg Commodity Index dokonce nejdra\u017e\u0161\u00ed od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2013.\u00a0Index sleduje v\u00fdvoj cen kontrakt\u016f na dod\u00e1n\u00ed komodit v\u00a0budoucnosti. V\u00a0ko\u0161i je p\u0159es dvacet polo\u017eek.<\/p>\n

Suroviny zdra\u017euje v\u00e1lka v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu i\u00a0AI<\/p>\n

Za zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm surovin stoj\u00ed \u0159ada faktor\u016f. \u201eV posledn\u00ed dob\u011b stoj\u00ed za r\u016fstem cen komodit p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm konflikt na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, kter\u00fd tla\u010d\u00ed vzh\u016fru ceny ropy. Tomu v\u0161ak ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve p\u0159edch\u00e1zely nedostate\u010dn\u00e9 investice do nov\u00e9 produkce ropy, m\u011bdi i\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdch komodit,\u201c uv\u00e1d\u00ed Jakub Marcolla, investi\u010dn\u00ed specialista spole\u010dnosti Wood & Company.<\/p>\n

Krom\u011b toho prob\u00edh\u00e1 ve sv\u011bt\u011b energetick\u00e1 transformace, kter\u00e1 spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v\u00a0investic\u00edch do p\u0159enosov\u00fdch s\u00edt\u00ed a\u00a0obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f. \u201eTa p\u0159inesla r\u016fst cen kov\u016f, jako je m\u011b\u010f, hlin\u00edk nebo nikl, ale i\u00a0drah\u00fdch kov\u016f, jako je st\u0159\u00edbro nebo platina,\u201c vyjmenov\u00e1v\u00e1 Marek Jane\u010dka, portfolio mana\u017eer J&T investi\u010dn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, kter\u00fdm za b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed proud\u00ed okolo p\u011btiny sv\u011btov\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek ropy, kv\u016fli v\u00e1lce v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu m\u00e1 toti\u017e dopad nejen na ropu a\u00a0v\u00fdrobky z\u00a0n\u00ed, ale i\u00a0na zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9 plodiny.<\/p>\n

\u201eCeny obilovin se rovn\u011b\u017e zvy\u0161uj\u00ed, proto\u017ee zdra\u017euj\u00ed hnojiva<\/a> kv\u016fli uzav\u0159en\u00ed pr\u016flivu,\u201c upozor\u0148uje Boris Tom\u010diak, analytik spole\u010dnosti Finlord.<\/p>\n

Spole\u010dn\u011b s\u00a0extr\u00e9mn\u00edm po\u010das\u00edm tak v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd konflikt vyhnal ceny zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdch komodit na dvoulet\u00e9 maximum. Ukazatel Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, kter\u00fd sleduje deset celosv\u011btov\u011b nejprod\u00e1van\u011bj\u0161\u00edch zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdch produkt\u016f, roste ji\u017e t\u0159et\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc v\u00a0\u0159ad\u011b a\u00a0dostal se na nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 od listopadu 2023.<\/p>\n

Na cenu hnojiv je citliv\u00e9 zejm\u00e9na p\u011bstov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0161enice a\u00a0kuku\u0159ice, kter\u00e9 jsou nejv\u00edce zasa\u017eeny. Od za\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky tak cena p\u0161enice s\u00a0okam\u017eit\u00fdm dod\u00e1n\u00edm vysko\u010dila o\u00a012\u00a0% na t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dvoulet\u00e9 maximum a\u00a0kuku\u0159ice o\u00a06\u00a0% na nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed cenu za posledn\u00ed rok.<\/p>\n

Zem\u011bd\u011blc\u016fm ale krom\u011b hnojiv rostou rovn\u011b\u017e n\u00e1klady na pohonn\u00e9 hmoty, co\u017e se odraz\u00ed ve vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch n\u00e1kladech a\u00a0tlaku na r\u016fst cen produkce. Farm\u00e1\u0159e v\u00a0USA a\u00a0v\u00a0Evrop\u011b nav\u00edc zas\u00e1hlo sucho, co\u017e se podep\u00ed\u0161e na hor\u0161\u00ed \u00farod\u011b. Ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed nab\u00eddka pak bude op\u011bt tla\u010dit ceny nahoru.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdvoj na sv\u011btov\u00fdch trz\u00edch se surovinami proto poc\u00edt\u00ed firmy, spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 i\u00a0vl\u00e1dy po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b. \u201eV\u00e1lka zasahuje sv\u011btovou ekonomiku postupn\u011b v\u00a0n\u011bkolika vln\u00e1ch: nejprve prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch cen energi\u00ed, n\u00e1sledn\u011b p\u0159es vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny potravin a\u00a0nakonec skrze vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed inflaci, kter\u00e1 bude tla\u010dit nahoru \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, co\u017e je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce prodra\u017e\u00ed spl\u00e1cen\u00ed dluh\u016f,\u201c komentoval ceny komodit Indermit Gill, hlavn\u00ed ekonom Sv\u011btov\u00e9 banky<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Sv\u011btov\u00e1 banka o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 zdra\u017een\u00ed komodit o\u00a016\u00a0%, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e cena energi\u00ed vysko\u010d\u00ed o\u00a024\u00a0%. Takov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 by se na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed podepsal nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u011b. \u201ePro sv\u011btovou ekonomiku to p\u0159edstavuje riziko stagflace, tedy obdob\u00ed slab\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho r\u016fstu doprov\u00e1zen\u00e9ho vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed inflac\u00ed. \u010cesk\u00e1 republika je jako otev\u0159en\u00e1 a\u00a0energeticky n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e1 ekonomika v\u016f\u010di tomuto v\u00fdvoji obzvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 citliv\u00e1,\u201c dod\u00e1v\u00e1 Marcolla.<\/p>\n

U\u017e nyn\u00ed zdra\u017euj\u00ed ceny pohonn\u00fdch hmot a\u00a0energi\u00ed, co\u017e po\u0161kozuje dopravce a\u00a0sektory n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e9 na energie. Postupn\u011b se to v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017ee odrazit i\u00a0v dal\u0161\u00edch odv\u011btv\u00edch. \u201eP\u0159i takov\u00e9to cen\u011b komodit dojde ke zpomalen\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9ho r\u016fstu,\u201c upozor\u0148uje Tom\u010diak.<\/p>\n

Podobn\u00fd odhad maj\u00ed i\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed odborn\u00edci. \u201eGlob\u00e1ln\u00ed r\u016fst m\u016f\u017ee zpomalit o\u00a0jednotky desetin procentn\u00edho bodu, u\u00a0inflace m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt dopad citeln\u00fd, v\u00a0hor\u0161\u00edch p\u0159\u00edpadech a\u017e v\u00a0\u0159\u00e1du n\u011bkolika procentn\u00edch bod\u016f,\u201c vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1v\u00e1 Ji\u0159\u00ed Tyle\u010dek, analytik XTB.<\/p>\n

Na zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed pak budou reagovat i\u00a0centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e nyn\u00ed vy\u010dk\u00e1vaj\u00ed, jak se situace ohledn\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1nu a\u00a0zablokovan\u00e9ho Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu vyvine. M\u00edsto o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9ho sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed sazeb je tak zat\u00edm nech\u00e1vaj\u00ed beze zm\u011bny. A\u00a0m\u016f\u017ee doj\u00edt i\u00a0k jejich r\u016fstu, co\u017e by zdra\u017eilo spl\u00e1cen\u00ed hypot\u00e9k i\u00a0st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f.<\/p>\n

\u201eV Evrop\u011b ji\u017e centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i vn\u00edmaj\u00ed, \u017ee ceny komodit mohou do inflace prosakovat, a\u00a0proto Evropsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka<\/a> na sv\u00e9m \u010dervnov\u00e9m zased\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed sazby,\u201c dopl\u0148uje portfolio mana\u017eer spole\u010dnosti Cyrrus Tom\u00e1\u0161 Pfeiler. <\/p>\n

Zdra\u017een\u00ed potravin i\u00a0p\u016fj\u010dek<\/p>\n

Ostatn\u011b cena pen\u011bz na trhu vzrostla i\u00a0v \u010cesku, kdy\u017e si nyn\u00ed banky mezi sebou p\u016fj\u010duj\u00ed pen\u00edze na t\u0159i roky za sazbu p\u0159es 4,3\u00a0%. Dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed pen\u00edze byly naposledy v\u00a0listopadu 2023.\u00a0Na vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed spl\u00e1tky se tak mus\u00ed p\u0159ipravit dom\u00e1cnosti refinancuj\u00edc\u00ed hypot\u00e9ky<\/a> i\u00a0\u010desk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da u\u00a0sv\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f.<\/p>\n

A kdo poc\u00edt\u00ed zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed komodit nejv\u00edce? \u201eNejchud\u0161\u00ed lid\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pod\u00edl sv\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f utr\u00e1cej\u00ed za potraviny a\u00a0paliva, budou zasa\u017eeni nejv\u00edce, stejn\u011b jako rozvojov\u00e9 ekonomiky, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e nyn\u00ed z\u00e1pas\u00ed s\u00a0vysok\u00fdm dluhem,\u201c l\u00ed\u010d\u00ed Gill.<\/p>\n

R\u016fst cen komodit se nav\u00edc nezkrot\u00ed ani po ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu. \u201eZ\u00e1kladn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 st\u00e1le po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 sp\u00ed\u0161e s\u00a0tlakem na dal\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst, i\u00a0kdyby se situace na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b uklidnila,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Tyle\u010dek.<\/p>\n

D\u016fvodem je skute\u010dnost, \u017ee efekty konfliktu budou m\u00edt setrva\u010dnost a\u00a0projev\u00ed se pozd\u011bji. \u201eV\u00e1lka m\u00e1 infla\u010dn\u00ed dopad na ceny potravin, a\u00a0to p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm kv\u016fli naru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek energie, hnojiv a\u00a0p\u0159epravy, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e tyto dopady jsou rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9, glob\u00e1ln\u00ed a\u00a0projev\u00ed se se zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm,\u201c sd\u011blil agentu\u0159e Bloomberg Oscar Tjakra, vedouc\u00ed analytik Rabobank v\u00a0Singapuru. \u201ePokud bude konflikt pokra\u010dovat, mohlo by to v\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch \u0161esti a\u017e osmn\u00e1cti m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch zv\u00fd\u0161it inflaci cen potravin o\u00a0n\u011bkolik procentn\u00edch bod\u016f,\u201c dod\u00e1v\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 proto podle n\u011bj mohou o\u010dek\u00e1vat postupn\u00fd r\u016fst cen potravin<\/a>, a\u00a0to zejm\u00e9na t\u011bch z\u00e1kladn\u00edch. To op\u011bt poc\u00edt\u00ed ty nejv\u00edce zraniteln\u00e9 dom\u00e1cnosti.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed blok\u00e1dy Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu by podle \u0161\u00e9fa ropn\u00e9ho kolosu Exxon Mobil <\/a>Darrena Woodse znamenalo dal\u0161\u00ed zdra\u017een\u00ed ropy, proto\u017ee trh je\u0161t\u011b nepoc\u00edtil pln\u00fd dopad bezprecedentn\u00edho p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek suroviny. D\u016fvodem podle n\u011bj je, \u017ee v\u00a0dob\u011b konfliktu byla nalo\u017eena spousta tanker\u016f s\u00a0ropou, byly uvoln\u011bny strategick\u00e9 rezervy v\u00a0\u0159ad\u011b zem\u00ed a\u00a0sn\u00ed\u017eily se tak\u00e9 komer\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1soby. Ty maj\u00ed nap\u0159\u00edklad rafin\u00e9rie \u010di obchodn\u00edci s\u00a0komoditami. Jeden z\u00a0t\u011bchto zdroj\u016f se v\u0161ak vy\u010derp\u00e1, pokud bude konflikt pokra\u010dovat, zd\u016fraznil pro CNBC Woods s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee pak cena ropy vzroste.<\/p>\n

Podle Tom\u010diaka se nav\u00edc budou ceny komodit dlouhodob\u011b zvy\u0161ovat. D\u016fvodem jsou n\u00edzk\u00e9 investice do t\u011b\u017eby kov\u016f i\u00a0ropy v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech. To v\u0161ak nen\u00ed jedin\u00fd d\u016fvod, kter\u00fd t\u00e1hne ceny surovin nahoru.<\/p>\n

\u201eV\u00fdznamnou roli hraje tak\u00e9 ti\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed pen\u011bz a\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed inflace, kter\u00e9 podporuj\u00ed r\u016fst cen komodit, je\u017e investo\u0159i \u010dasto vn\u00edmaj\u00ed jako ochranu proti znehodnocov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bn,\u201c dopl\u0148uje Marcolla. <\/p>\n

Ostatn\u011b i\u00a0po skon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu m\u016f\u017ee pokra\u010dovat tlak na cenu ropy kv\u016fli tomu, \u017ee se budou dopl\u0148ovat pr\u00e1v\u011b zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 rezervy ropy \u010di z\u00e1soby firem. I\u00a0v\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch letech tak komodity mohou d\u011blat centr\u00e1ln\u00edm bank\u00e9\u0159\u016fm starosti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku vysko\u010dily na komoditn\u00edch trz\u00edch ceny benzinu, nafty a\u00a0ropy o\u00a0v\u00edce ne\u017e sto procent. O\u00a0des\u00edtky procent pak…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":62515,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[67,68,9854,23193,21139,6387,7825,205,126],"class_list":{"0":"post-78419","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-byznys","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-byznys","10":"tag-cena-pohonnych-hmot","11":"tag-ceny-komodit","12":"tag-exxonmobil","13":"tag-hormuzsky-pruliv","14":"tag-konflikt-usa-izrael-iran","15":"tag-ropa","16":"tag-umela-inteligence-ai"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116533199184652412","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78419","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78419"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78419\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62515"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78419"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78419"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78419"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}