{"id":78757,"date":"2026-05-07T18:31:15","date_gmt":"2026-05-07T18:31:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/78757\/"},"modified":"2026-05-07T18:31:15","modified_gmt":"2026-05-07T18:31:15","slug":"ocima-byznysu-csg-po-propadech-prehnana-panika-nebo-prozreni-trhu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/78757\/","title":{"rendered":"O\u010dima byznysu: CSG po propadech. P\u0159ehnan\u00e1 panika, nebo proz\u0159en\u00ed trhu?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Akcie \u010desk\u00e9 zbroja\u0159sk\u00e9 skupiny Czechoslovak Group (CSG) za posledn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce pro\u0161ly prudk\u00fdm propadem. Od vrchol\u016f kr\u00e1tce po vstupu na amsterodamskou burzu ztratila CSG v\u00edce ne\u017e polovinu sv\u00e9 hodnoty. P\u0159itom z\u00a0\u010dist\u011b provozn\u00edho pohledu firma st\u00e1le vykazuje mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b siln\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky: tr\u017eby v\u00a0roce 2025\u00a0vzrostly meziro\u010dn\u011b o\u00a072\u00a0% na zhruba 165\u00a0miliard korun, provozn\u00ed zisk EBITDA p\u0159es\u00e1hl 42\u00a0miliard a\u00a0popt\u00e1vka po munici v\u00a0Evrop\u011b z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 extr\u00e9mn\u011b siln\u00e1. Pro\u010d se tedy investo\u0159i zbavuj\u00ed akci\u00ed CSG?<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00edm probl\u00e9mem nejsou hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky, ale ned\u016fv\u011bra trhu v\u016f\u010di managementu CSG a\u00a0skepticismus k\u00a0budouc\u00edmu hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9mu v\u00fdvoji. Investory znerv\u00f3z\u0148uje kombinace n\u011bkolika faktor\u016f: spor s\u00a0minoritn\u00edm akcion\u00e1\u0159em Petrem Kratochv\u00edlem, ot\u00e1zky kolem dce\u0159in\u00e9 \u0161pan\u011blsk\u00e9 muni\u010dn\u00ed tov\u00e1rny FMG, slab\u0161\u00ed pen\u011b\u017en\u00ed toky, a\u00a0p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm kritick\u00e1 anal\u00fdza americk\u00e9 investigativn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti Hunterbrook<\/a>. Ta zpochybnila skute\u010dn\u00fd rozsah vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdroby CSG v\u00a0oblasti st\u0159edn\u00ed a\u00a0velkor\u00e1\u017eov\u00e9 munice, co\u017e je nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed podnikov\u00fd segment CSG.<\/p>\n

Je CSG v\u00fdrobce \u010di p\u0159eprodejce?<\/p>\n

CSG chce b\u00fdt vn\u00edm\u00e1na jako p\u0159edn\u00ed evropsk\u00fd v\u00fdrobce munice srovnateln\u00fd s\u00a0nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm zbroja\u0159em v\u00a0N\u011bmecku\u00a0\u2013 Rheinmetall AG. Kritick\u00e1 anal\u00fdza americk\u00e9 investigativn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti Hunterbrook ale ukazuje, \u017ee vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdrobn\u00ed kapacita CSG je mo\u017en\u00e1 men\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e kterou spole\u010dnost deklaruje. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st byznysu, ne\u017e se p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dalo, mo\u017en\u00e1 stoj\u00ed na kombinaci repas\u00ed, partnerstv\u00ed a\u00a0integrace komponent\u016f od t\u0159et\u00edch stran. A\u010dkoli CSG trhu ji\u017e komunikovala sv\u016fj hybridn\u00ed podnikov\u00fd model kombinuj\u00edc\u00ed vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdrobu a\u00a0p\u0159eprodej, ot\u00e1zka je, jak velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st tr\u017eeb je skute\u010dn\u011b vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdroba a\u00a0zda si CSG nep\u0159ikr\u00e1\u0161lila v\u00a0prospektu realitu.<\/p>\n

Hybridn\u00ed podnikov\u00fd model s\u00e1m o\u00a0sob\u011b nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt probl\u00e9m. Schopnost rychle z\u00edskat, opravit, modernizovat a\u00a0dodat vojenskou munici, kde je pot\u0159eba, byla v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b cenn\u00e1 a\u00a0velmi ziskov\u00e1 \u010dinnost. V\u00a0prost\u0159ed\u00ed akutn\u00edho nedostatku munice dok\u00e1zala CSG t\u00e9to situace v\u00fdborn\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edt. Probl\u00e9m je v\u00a0tom, \u017ee a\u017e pomine obdob\u00ed akutn\u00ed popt\u00e1vky, nebo pokud dojdou snadno dostupn\u00e9 z\u00e1soby existuj\u00edc\u00ed zastaral\u00e9 munice, pak se m\u016f\u017ee hospoda\u0159en\u00ed CSG ost\u0159e zhor\u0161it. Finan\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdvoj CSG ukazuje poh\u00e1dkov\u011b rychl\u00fd r\u016fst, kdy jim vzrostly tr\u017eby z\u00a0p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 13,7\u00a0miliard korun v\u00a0roce 2021\u00a0na 164,5\u00a0miliard korun v\u00a0roce 2025, tedy dvan\u00e1ctin\u00e1sobn\u011b b\u011bhem pouh\u00fdch \u010dty\u0159 let. <\/p>\n

Takov\u00fd rapidn\u00ed r\u016fst nen\u00ed charakteristick\u00fd pro vertik\u00e1ln\u011b integrovanou v\u00fdrobn\u00ed spole\u010dnost s\u00a0omezenou v\u00fdrobn\u00ed kapacitou. V\u00a0roce 2026\u00a0podle p\u0159edpoklad\u016f managementu CSG r\u016fst tr\u017eeb zpomal\u00ed z\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch 87\u00a0% v\u00a0posledn\u00edch \u010dty\u0159ech\u00a0letech na pouh\u00fdch 16\u00a0%. To je ostr\u00fd propad v\u00a0tempu r\u016fstu, doch\u00e1z\u00ed snadno dostupn\u00fd vojensk\u00fd materi\u00e1l vhodn\u00fd k\u00a0repasov\u00e1n\u00ed? Popt\u00e1vka po vojensk\u00e9m materi\u00e1lu je po\u0159\u00e1d siln\u00e1, popt\u00e1vkou to tedy zap\u0159\u00ed\u010din\u011bn\u00e9 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nebude.<\/p>\n

Z\u00a0pohledu ocen\u011bn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti je velk\u00fd rozd\u00edl, zda si sama vyr\u00e1b\u00ed v\u00fdrobky, kter\u00e9 n\u00e1sledn\u011b prod\u00e1v\u00e1 a\u00a0disponuje tedy v\u00fdrobn\u00ed kapacitou, nebo nikoli. V\u00fdrobci si zpravidla zaslou\u017e\u00ed dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed ocen\u011bn\u00ed a\u00a0maj\u00ed p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a\u00a0stabiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd v\u00fdvoj. Zklam\u00e1n\u00ed investor\u016f tedy \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed obavy ohledn\u011b skute\u010dn\u00fdch v\u00fdrobn\u00edch kapacit CSG.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Z\u00e1m\u011brn\u00e1 manipulace s\u00a0informacemi?<\/p>\n

Hodnotu spole\u010dnosti tla\u010d\u00ed n\u00ed\u017ee tak\u00e9 zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se pov\u011bst, kv\u016fli potenci\u00e1ln\u011b manipulativn\u00edm praktik\u00e1m kolem prim\u00e1rn\u00edho \u00fapisu sv\u00fdch akci\u00ed (IPO). Kritika se nap\u0159\u00edklad t\u00fdk\u00e1 neposkytnut\u00ed dostate\u010dn\u011b detailn\u00edch informac\u00ed ohledn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch skute\u010dnost\u00ed ovliv\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edch hodnotu CSG. Jedn\u00e1 se zejm\u00e9na o\u00a0spor s\u00a0minoritn\u00edm akcion\u00e1\u0159em Petrem Kratochv\u00edlem, kter\u00fd dlouhodob\u011b pracoval v\u00a0CSG a\u00a0rozhodl se nyn\u00ed prodat sv\u016fj pod\u00edl na dce\u0159in\u00e9 firm\u011b CSG, kv\u016fli \u00fadajn\u00fdm manipulativn\u00edm praktik\u00e1m managementu. Ten m\u011bl Kratochv\u00edlovi zatajit \u00fapis akci\u00ed a\u00a0nab\u00eddnout odkup jeho pod\u00edlu p\u0159ed IPO za zlomkovou cenu re\u00e1ln\u00e9 hodnoty jeho pod\u00edlu. V\u00fdsledkem je to, \u017ee Kratochv\u00edl se rozhodl sv\u016fj pod\u00edl zpen\u011b\u017eit, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pro CSG probl\u00e9m, nebo\u0165 se hodnota jeho pod\u00edlu m\u016f\u017ee vy\u0161plhat a\u017e na 35\u00a0miliard korun. To m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st k\u00a0zadlu\u017een\u00ed CSG, aby vyhov\u011bla po\u017eadavku Kratochv\u00edla.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00edm st\u0159\u00edpkem je \u0161pan\u011blsk\u00e1 tov\u00e1rna FMG (F\u00e1brica de Municiones de Granada), kter\u00e1 byla do\u010dasn\u011b suspendov\u00e1na z\u00a0tendr\u016f NATO kv\u016fli vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed mo\u017en\u00fdch korup\u010dn\u00edch praktik. To by mohlo ohrozit \u010d\u00e1st popt\u00e1vky ze strany st\u00e1t\u016f NATO v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee se korupce skute\u010dn\u011b prok\u00e1\u017ee. U\u00a0obrann\u00fdch firem jako CSG je d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost velmi d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1, proto\u017ee st\u00e1ty a\u00a0arm\u00e1dy necht\u011bj\u00ed b\u00fdt obvi\u0148ov\u00e1ny z\u00a0financov\u00e1n\u00ed zkorumpovan\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed. P\u0159esto\u017ee CSG jak\u00e9koli pochyben\u00ed odm\u00edt\u00e1 a\u00a0tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee intern\u00ed audit nic problematick\u00e9ho neodhalil, reputa\u010dn\u00ed \u0161koda ji\u017e vznikla. <\/p>\n

Pov\u011bsti CSG tak\u00e9 neprosp\u00edv\u00e1 p\u0159ehnan\u011b nafoukl\u00e1 r\u00e1mcov\u00e1 dohoda se slovensk\u00fdm ministerstvem obrany ve v\u00fd\u0161i 1,4\u00a0bilionu korun, nedostate\u010dn\u011b transparentn\u00ed reportov\u00e1n\u00ed hospoda\u0159en\u00ed, podez\u0159ele optimistick\u00e9 analytick\u00e9 v\u00fdstupy od bankovn\u00edch dom\u016f \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edc\u00edch se IPO\u00a0\u2013 JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank \u010di BNP Paribas, rostouc\u00ed zadlu\u017een\u00ed, srovnateln\u011b mal\u00e9 investice do v\u00fdrobn\u00edch kapacit \u010di siln\u011b rostouc\u00ed z\u00e1soby.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Nelze spolehliv\u011b tvrdit, \u017ee management CSG investory z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b uv\u00e1d\u011bl v\u00a0omyl. Sou\u010dasn\u011b je ale z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee spole\u010dnost m\u011bla velmi silnou motivaci prezentovat firmu p\u0159ed IPO v\u00a0co nejlep\u0161\u00edm sv\u011btle a\u00a0maximalizovat v\u00fdslednou valuaci. Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto dnes \u010d\u00e1st trhu zp\u011btn\u011b p\u0159ehodnocuje, zda byly v\u0161echny podstatn\u00e9 informace komunikov\u00e1ny dostate\u010dn\u011b transparentn\u011b a\u00a0zda investo\u0159i spr\u00e1vn\u011b ch\u00e1pali skute\u010dnou strukturu zisk\u016f, v\u00fdroby a\u00a0rizik skupiny.<\/p>\n

Akcie CSG zhruba na sv\u00e9 f\u00e9rov\u00e9 hodnot\u011b<\/p>\n

V\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b je tak m\u00ed\u010d na stran\u011b managementu, jak nactuto situaci bude reagovat a\u00a0zda se rozhodne podniknout kroky k\u00a0n\u00e1prav\u011b sv\u00e9 pov\u011bsti, nebo bude nad\u00e1le odm\u00edtat ve\u0161ker\u00e1 obvin\u011bn\u00ed. Spole\u010dnost CSG pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nen\u00ed ani druh\u00fd Rheinmetall, ani pouh\u00fd p\u0159ekupn\u00edk vojensk\u00e9ho materi\u00e1lu. Realisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pohled je, \u017ee jde o\u00a0rychle rostouc\u00ed hybridn\u00ed obrannou skupinu, kter\u00e1 velmi dob\u0159e monetizovala mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 podm\u00ednky posledn\u00edch let a\u00a0nyn\u00ed stoj\u00ed na rozcest\u00ed, kde se ur\u010d\u00ed, zda dok\u00e1\u017ee p\u0159ej\u00edt od modelu zalo\u017een\u00e9ho na repas\u00edch k\u00a0v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdrob\u011b. <\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b odpov\u011b\u010f na tuto ot\u00e1zku pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b rozhodne o\u00a0tom, zda sou\u010dasn\u00fd propad akci\u00ed p\u0159edstavuje pouze p\u0159ehnanou paniku, nebo n\u00e1vrat valuace bl\u00ed\u017ee ekonomick\u00e9 realit\u011b. Akcie CSG proto nyn\u00ed nepova\u017eujeme za p\u0159ehnan\u011b levn\u00e9. P\u0159i cen\u00e1ch kolem 400\u00a0K\u010d za akcii se CSG obchoduje pobl\u00ed\u017e sv\u00e9 f\u00e9rov\u00e9 hodnoty. Valuace ji\u017e na t\u00e9to cen\u011b vypad\u00e1 rozumn\u011bji ne\u017e p\u0159i IPO, ale st\u00e1le nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 ji odd\u011blit od d\u016fv\u011bry, kterou si firma bude muset znovu vybudovat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Akcie \u010desk\u00e9 zbroja\u0159sk\u00e9 skupiny Czechoslovak Group (CSG) za posledn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce pro\u0161ly prudk\u00fdm propadem. Od vrchol\u016f kr\u00e1tce po vstupu…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":75412,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[412,623,2282,17,21,10976,2459,16,18,19,22,2280,9801,20],"class_list":{"0":"post-78757","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-zpravy","8":"tag-akcie","9":"tag-burza","10":"tag-czechoslovak-group-csg","11":"tag-headlines","12":"tag-hlavni-udalosti","13":"tag-management","14":"tag-munice","15":"tag-news","16":"tag-top-news","17":"tag-top-stories","18":"tag-udalosti-dne","19":"tag-zbrojni-prumysl","20":"tag-zbrojovka","21":"tag-zpravy"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116534724692599514","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78757","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78757"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78757\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/75412"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78757"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78757"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78757"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}