Podle dat americk\u00e9 burzy Members Exchange<\/a> dr\u017e\u00ed akcie v\u00a0USA zhruba 60\u00a0procent dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e drobn\u00ed investo\u0159i stoj\u00ed a\u017e za 37\u00a0procenty ve\u0161ker\u00fdch denn\u00edch obchod\u016f. I\u00a0d\u00edky jejich mnohdy p\u0159ehnan\u00e9mu optimismu akcie ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech rychle umazaly ztr\u00e1ty vyvolan\u00e9 v\u00e1lkou v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu a\u00a0vystoupaly znovu na rekordn\u00ed ceny. Hlavn\u00ed americk\u00fd index S&P\u00a0500 v\u00a0dubnu pos\u00edlil o\u00a010,4\u00a0procenta, co\u017e je nejlep\u0161\u00ed m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdsledek od listopadu 2020, kdy trhy zachv\u00e1tila euforie kv\u016fli vakc\u00edn\u00e1m proti koronaviru.\u00a0<\/p>\nN\u00e1r\u016fst vlivu retailov\u00fdch investor\u016f za\u010dal pr\u00e1v\u011b b\u011bhem covidov\u00e9 pandemie, kdy americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da poskytla dom\u00e1cnostem rozs\u00e1hlou podporu. Sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed byly takzvan\u00e9 helicopter money\u00a0\u2013 tedy p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 rozd\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed pen\u011bz. M\u00edsto b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch n\u00e1kup\u016f, je\u017e pandemick\u00e9 uz\u00e1v\u011bry tehdy komplikovaly, za\u010dali Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 tyto pen\u00edze ve velk\u00e9m investovat do akci\u00ed. \u010casto p\u0159itom \u0161lo o\u00a0ur\u010ditou formu z\u00e1bavy: sp\u00ed\u0161 ne\u017e seri\u00f3zn\u00edmu investov\u00e1n\u00ed se tyto obchody podobaly gamblingu.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Tak velk\u00fd boom by nebyl mo\u017en\u00fd bez n\u00e1stupu u\u017eivatelsky p\u0159\u00edv\u011btiv\u00fdch aplikac\u00ed jako Robinhood nebo Revolut, kter\u00e9 obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0akciemi a\u00a0jin\u00fdmi finan\u010dn\u00edmi n\u00e1stroji podstatn\u011b zjednodu\u0161ily a\u00a0zdemokratizovaly. S\u00a0jejich pomoc\u00ed lze toti\u017e obchodovat p\u0159\u00edmo z\u00a0mobilu, s\u00a0relativn\u011b mal\u00fdmi \u010d\u00e1stkami a\u00a0za p\u0159ijateln\u00e9 poplatky.<\/p>\n
B\u011bhem covidu drobn\u00ed investo\u0159i z\u00e1rove\u0148 vypozorovali z\u00e1sadn\u00ed v\u011bc: centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i \u010di politici maj\u00ed tendenci p\u0159isp\u011bchat v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pot\u00ed\u017e\u00ed trhu na pomoc. Amat\u00e9r\u0161t\u00ed akciov\u00ed obchodn\u00edci si proto obl\u00edbili strategii \u201ebuy-the-dip\u201c, tedy n\u00e1kupy po poklesech.<\/p>\n
Logika je jednoduch\u00e1: kdy\u017e po ot\u0159esech na burze centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed sazby nebo za\u010dne nakupovat dluhopisy, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b se situaci pokus\u00ed stabilizovat vl\u00e1da, je velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee se trhy rychle zotav\u00ed. A\u00a0v\u00a0takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b se po propadech vyplat\u00ed nakupovat.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Na \u010d\u00edslech nez\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed, d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 jsou pocity<\/p>\n
Vzestup drobn\u00fdch investor\u016f ovliv\u0148uje samotn\u00e9 fungov\u00e1n\u00ed trhu, a\u00a0to ne zrovna pozitivn\u011b. Mal\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010di si toti\u017e po\u0159izuj\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm siln\u011b rostouc\u00ed akcie, \u010d\u00edm\u017e ale \u010dasto um\u011ble prodlu\u017euj\u00ed jejich r\u016fst. D\u0159\u00edve investov\u00e1n\u00ed naopak spo\u010d\u00edvalo v\u00a0hled\u00e1n\u00ed firem, jejich\u017e akcie byly podhodnocen\u00e9, a\u00a0tud\u00ed\u017e m\u011bly r\u016fstov\u00fd potenci\u00e1l.\u00a0<\/p>\n
P\u0159\u00edkladem je st\u0159ede\u010dn\u00ed raketov\u00fd r\u016fst akci\u00ed americk\u00e9 \u010dipov\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti AMD v\u00a0reakci na publikaci hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f. Ty sice dopadly l\u00e9pe, ne\u017e analytici o\u010dek\u00e1vali, p\u0159esto prudk\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst ceny p\u0159ekvapil: jen b\u011bhem st\u0159edy titul vysko\u010dil o\u00a018,6\u00a0procenta, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e u\u017e v\u00a0dubnu pos\u00edlil o\u00a074\u00a0procent.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Ned\u00e1 se p\u0159itom \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee by se perspektiva t\u00e9to firmy n\u011bjak dramaticky zlep\u0161ila. Ano, AMD sice t\u011b\u017e\u00ed z\u00a0boomu kolem um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence, ale zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd vzestup ceny akci\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011b p\u0159edb\u00edh\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd r\u016fst zisk\u016f. Ty se na za\u010d\u00e1tku dubna obchodovaly na 30n\u00e1sobku \u010dist\u00e9ho profitu, zat\u00edmco ve st\u0159edu ve\u010der st\u00e1ly t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 60n\u00e1sobek. Titul je tedy v\u00a0sou\u010dasnosti extr\u00e9mn\u011b drah\u00fd.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Drobn\u00ed investo\u0159i v\u0161ak vysok\u00e9 valuace \u010di jin\u00e1 tvrd\u00e1 data ignoruj\u00ed a\u00a0akcie si vyb\u00edraj\u00ed podle pocit\u016f. Hodnot\u00ed sice, zda je byznys atraktivn\u00ed, ale p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 se netr\u00e1p\u00ed konkr\u00e9tn\u00edmi \u010d\u00edsly.<\/p>\n
Probl\u00e9m je, \u017ee na stejnou vlnu za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed naskakovat i\u00a0fondy a\u00a0jin\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed profesion\u00e1lov\u00e9. Uv\u011bdomuj\u00ed si toti\u017e, \u017ee pokud se jim poda\u0159\u00ed trefit akcie, kter\u00e9 se t\u011b\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1jmu retailov\u00fdch investor\u016f, maj\u00ed \u0161anci vyd\u011blat v\u00edc pen\u011bz.\u00a0<\/p>\n
N\u00e1kupy podhodnocen\u00fdch titul\u016f vy\u017eaduj\u00ed d\u016fkladnou anal\u00fdzu a\u00a0v\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9m prost\u0159ed\u00ed investor\u016fm tolik nevyd\u011blaj\u00ed. Fondy samoz\u0159ejm\u011b sv\u00fdm klient\u016fm cht\u011bj\u00ed vyd\u011blat co nejv\u00edc, tak\u017ee nadhodnocen\u00e9 tituly je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce zdra\u017euj\u00ed a\u00a0ty podhodnocen\u00e9 z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed levn\u00e9. Kv\u016fli rostouc\u00edmu po\u010dtu drobn\u00fdch investor\u016f tak schopnost trhu spr\u00e1vn\u011b oce\u0148ovat aktiva a\u00a0rizika sl\u00e1bne.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Iracion\u00e1ln\u00ed optimismus<\/p>\n
S\u00edla retailov\u00fdch investor\u016f je jedn\u00edm z\u00a0d\u016fvod\u016f, pro\u010d akciov\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 v\u00e1lkou v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu trvaly tak kr\u00e1tce. Konflikt sice mo\u017en\u00e1 zp\u016fsob\u00ed zrychlen\u00ed inflace a\u00a0ekonomick\u00e9 ochlazen\u00ed, na korpor\u00e1tn\u00edch zisc\u00edch to v\u0161ak zat\u00edm vid\u011bt nen\u00ed.<\/p>\n
Zisky 390\u00a0firem z\u00a0indexu S&P\u00a0500, kter\u00e9 zat\u00edm zve\u0159ejnily sv\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky za prvn\u00ed kvart\u00e1l, stouply o\u00a0vysoce nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch 26\u00a0procent. V\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch \u010dtvrtlet\u00edch americk\u00e9 podniky hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 zpomalen\u00ed nejsp\u00ed\u0161 poc\u00edt\u00ed, ale t\u00edm se dr\u017eitel\u00e9 akci\u00ed v\u00a0tuto chv\u00edli netr\u00e1p\u00ed.<\/p>\n
Drobn\u00ed investo\u0159i si a\u017e p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 zvykli na jev naz\u00fdvan\u00fd TACO (Trump always chickens out)\u00a0\u2013 tedy p\u0159edpoklad, \u017ee \u0161\u00e9f B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu v\u017edy vycouv\u00e1, pokud by jeho kontroverzn\u00ed kroky jako cla, pokusy o\u00a0omezov\u00e1n\u00ed nez\u00e1vislosti centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky nebo v\u00e1lka m\u011bly vyvolat tr\u017en\u00ed ot\u0159esy. Trump toti\u017e pova\u017euje v\u00fdkonnost S&P\u00a0500 za m\u011b\u0159\u00edtko \u00fasp\u011bchu sv\u00e9ho p\u016fsoben\u00ed v\u00a0\u00fa\u0159adu. Proto obchodn\u00edci s\u00a0akciemi po\u0159\u00e1d o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee prezident brzy zajist\u00ed znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu.<\/p>\n
D\u00e1v\u00e1 to smysl: kdy\u017e 60\u00a0procent americk\u00fdch dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed vlastn\u00ed akcie, tak se z\u00a0d\u011bn\u00ed na burz\u00e1ch st\u00e1v\u00e1 kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 politick\u00e9 t\u00e9ma. D\u011blat opat\u0159en\u00ed, je\u017e by zp\u016fsobila propady trh\u016f, se v\u00a0takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b rovn\u00e1 politick\u00e9 sebevra\u017ed\u011b. Naopak na administrativu vznik\u00e1 tlak, aby akcie i\u00a0jin\u00e1 aktiva co nejv\u00edce podporovala, pokud ekonomick\u00e9 ochlazen\u00ed doraz\u00ed.<\/p>\n
Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b v\u00a0del\u0161\u00edm obdob\u00ed op\u011bt rozhodne kvalita hospoda\u0159en\u00ed jednotliv\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed. Drobn\u00ed spekulanti ale z\u00a0trhu jen tak nezmizej\u00ed. Kdo chce b\u00fdt na burze \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd, mus\u00ed br\u00e1t tuto m\u011bn\u00edc\u00ed se strukturu v\u00a0potaz a\u00a0p\u0159izp\u016fsobovat j\u00ed sv\u00e1 investi\u010dn\u00ed rozhodnut\u00ed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Miliony akciov\u00fdch amat\u00e9r\u016f, kter\u00fdm Wall Street posm\u011b\u0161n\u011b \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 \u201ehloup\u00e9 pen\u00edze\u201c, st\u00e1le v\u00edc ud\u00e1vaj\u00ed rytmus obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed na burz\u00e1ch. Profesion\u00e1lov\u00e9…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":79150,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[412,623,67,68,1099,703,952,113,6459],"class_list":{"0":"post-79149","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-byznys","8":"tag-akcie","9":"tag-burza","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-byznys","12":"tag-investor","13":"tag-penize","14":"tag-sp-500","15":"tag-usa","16":"tag-wall-street"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116537733095496688","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79149","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79149"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79149\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79150"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79149"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79149"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79149"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}