{"id":79250,"date":"2026-05-08T08:28:14","date_gmt":"2026-05-08T08:28:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/79250\/"},"modified":"2026-05-08T08:28:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-08T08:28:14","slug":"pribeh-v-nemz-je-sp-500-na-16-000-bodech","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/79250\/","title":{"rendered":"P\u0159\u00edb\u011bh, v n\u011bm\u017e je S&P 500 na 16 000 bodech"},"content":{"rendered":"

Americk\u00e9 trhy znateln\u011b rostou a v\u010dera jsme se d\u00edvali<\/a> na jednoduchou kalkulaci f\u00e9rov\u00e9 hodnoty indexu S&P 500. S t\u00edm, \u017ee pokud by nyn\u00ed m\u011bly b\u00fdt rizikov\u00e9 pr\u00e9mie trhu u 3 %, na ospravedln\u011bn\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161e indexu by m\u011bl sta\u010dit dlouhodob\u00fd r\u016fst dividend o 5,9 %. Bylo by to n\u011bco mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9ho? A jak moc n\u00e1m v sou\u010dasn\u00e9m prost\u0159ed\u00ed vlastn\u011b mohou pomoci podobn\u00e9 \u00favahy sna\u017e\u00edc\u00ed se op\u0159\u00edt se o fundament?<\/p>\n

Za\u010dn\u011bme hned od j\u00e1dra v\u011bci \u2013 n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed graf ukazuje dlouhodob\u00fd r\u016fst zisk\u016f americk\u00fdch obchodovan\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed. Jde o obr\u00e1zek \u00fahledn\u00fd v tom smyslu, \u017ee zisky se hezky dr\u017e\u00ed vyzna\u010den\u00e9ho p\u00e1sma, a to u\u017e t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 sto let. Tento v\u00fdvoj generuje dlouhodob\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd r\u016fst zisk\u016f ve v\u00fd\u0161i 6,5 %. Pokud bychom p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dali, \u017ee ten bude d\u00e1l v pr\u016fm\u011bru dosahovat tohoto \u010d\u00edsla a dividendy na tom budou podobn\u011b, sou\u010dasn\u00e9 valuace trh\u016f nejsou nijak p\u0159ehnan\u00e9. Naopak, on\u011bch 6,5 % r\u016fstu by implikovalo v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed hodnotu indexu, ne\u017e jak\u00e1 je nyn\u00ed. <\/p>\n

\"01\"
Zdroj: X<\/p>\n

Co to znamen\u00e1 \u201ev\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed\u201c hodnotu? P\u0159edpokl\u00e1dejme, \u017ee dividendy v leto\u0161n\u00edm roce dos\u00e1hnou 80 dolaru na akcii. Bezrizikov\u00e9 sazby<\/a> jsou 4,3 % a rizikov\u00e1 pr\u00e9mie americk\u00e9ho trhu na 2,7 % (viz n\u00ed\u017ee). Po\u017eadovan\u00e1 n\u00e1vratnost je tedy na 7 %. Hodnota indexu se pak d\u00e1 jednodu\u0161e spo\u010d\u00edtat jako 80 d\u011bleno rozd\u00edlem mezi po\u017eadovanou n\u00e1vratnost\u00ed a o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdm r\u016fstem dividend. Tedy 80 d\u011bleno (7 % – 6,5 %). Co\u017e je 16 000 bod\u016f (slovy \u0161estn\u00e1ct tis\u00edc). Takov\u00e1 je s uveden\u00fdmi parametry f\u00e9rov\u00e1 hodnota indexu S&P 500, kter\u00fd se nyn\u00ed pohybuje kolem 7 300 bod\u016f.<\/p>\n

M\u00edsto r\u016fstu kolem 5,9 % jsme tedy dosadili historick\u00fd r\u016fst 6,5 % a m\u00edsto sou\u010dasn\u00e9 hodnoty indexu m\u00e1me hodnotu v\u00edce ne\u017e dvojn\u00e1sobnou. Jde o efekt, kter\u00fd jsem zmi\u0148oval v\u010dera: S t\u00edm, jak se p\u0159ibli\u017euj\u00ed po\u017eadovan\u00e1 n\u00e1vratnost a tempo r\u016fstu prudce roste citlivost kalkulace na jednotku tohoto rozd\u00edlu. Co\u017e p\u0159i dan\u00fdch v\u00fdnosech vl\u00e1dn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f ukazuje i to, jak v\u00fdraznou roli hraj\u00ed rizikov\u00e9 pr\u00e9mie (jako druh\u00e1 slo\u017eka po\u017eadovan\u00e9 n\u00e1vratnosti). O nich jsem hovo\u0159il ned\u00e1vno, p\u0159ipome\u0148me si jejich sou\u010dasn\u00fd odhad od :
\"02\"
Zdroj: X<\/p>\n

Dejme tomu, \u017ee by nyn\u00ed uveden\u00e9 parametry z\u016fstaly stejn\u00e9 (r\u016fst, v\u00fd\u0161e dividend, bezrizikov\u00e9 sazby). Ale rizikov\u00e1 pr\u00e9mie by vzrostla z 2,7 % na 4 %. Co\u017e by st\u00e1le bylo na doln\u00ed hranici hodnoty b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch p\u0159ed rokem 2020. Tedy \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 averze k riziku. S r\u016fstem dividend 5,9 % bychom pak nem\u011bli sou\u010dasnou hodnotu indexu kolem 7 300 bod\u016f, ale jen na 3 333 bodech. S r\u016fstem 6,5 % bychom nem\u011bli index na 16 000 bodech, ale na 4 444 bodech. V obou p\u0159\u00edpadech by tedy n\u00e1vrat pr\u00e9mie na optimisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed historick\u00fd standard generoval masivn\u00ed propad trhu. <\/p>\n

Co v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9 \u201eobjektivn\u011b\u201c ukazuje? \u017de zejm\u00e9na v dob\u00e1ch ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch pr\u00e9mi\u00ed a vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch temp o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9ho r\u016fstu zisk\u016f dostaneme z jednoduch\u00e9 fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed kalkulace a v\u00fdpo\u010dtu hodnoty akci\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla s obrovsk\u00fdmi rozptyly. Takov\u00fdmi, \u017ee podobn\u00e9 \u00favahy \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b mnohem m\u00e9n\u011b, ne\u017e v dob\u00e1ch celkov\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00edho optimismu (v\u011bt\u0161\u00edch rozd\u00edl\u016f mezi po\u017eadovanou n\u00e1vratnost\u00ed a r\u016fstem). Asi pr\u00e1v\u011b proto obecn\u011b na podobn\u00e9 kalkulace moc nenaraz\u00edme, vyjma skute\u010dn\u011b propracovan\u00fdch anal\u00fdz. Ale nenechme se m\u00fdlit. Pokud n\u011bkdo hovo\u0159\u00ed o tom, \u017ee f\u00e9rov\u00e9 valuace, \u010di f\u00e9rov\u00e1 hodnota trhu je podle n\u011bj takov\u00e1, \u010di makov\u00e1, v podstat\u011b by za jeho tvrzen\u00edm m\u011bla st\u00e1t pr\u00e1v\u011b takov\u00e1 kalkulace. Jinak zam\u011b\u0148uje pojem hodnota, respektive odhad hodnoty, s pocitem.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Americk\u00e9 trhy znateln\u011b rostou a v\u010dera jsme se d\u00edvali na jednoduchou kalkulaci f\u00e9rov\u00e9 hodnoty indexu S&P 500. S…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":79251,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[25421,25420,25422,67,68,25418,1073,25419],"class_list":{"0":"post-79250","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-byznys","8":"tag-25421","9":"tag-25420","10":"tag-bodech","11":"tag-business","12":"tag-byznys","13":"tag-nemz","14":"tag-pribeh","15":"tag-sp"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116538016183114334","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79250","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79250"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79250\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79251"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79250"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79250"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79250"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}