{"id":79495,"date":"2026-05-08T13:59:09","date_gmt":"2026-05-08T13:59:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/79495\/"},"modified":"2026-05-08T13:59:09","modified_gmt":"2026-05-08T13:59:09","slug":"el-nino-nastupuje-nezvykle-rychle-stredni-evropu-zrejme-ceka-mimoradne-teple-leto","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/79495\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o nastupuje nezvykle rychle. St\u0159edn\u00ed Evropu z\u0159ejm\u011b \u010dek\u00e1 mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b tepl\u00e9 l\u00e9to"},"content":{"rendered":"

El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0\u2013 Ji\u017en\u00ed oscilace (ENSO) ozna\u010duje syst\u00e9m oce\u00e1nsk\u00e9 a\u00a0atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 cirkulace v\u00a0rovn\u00edkov\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti Tich\u00e9ho oce\u00e1nu. Jeho tepl\u00e1 f\u00e1ze El Ni\u00f1o a\u00a0studen\u00e1 f\u00e1ze La Ni\u00f1a v\u00fdrazn\u011b ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed cirkulaci atmosf\u00e9ry a\u00a0po\u010das\u00ed v\u00a0mnoha \u010d\u00e1stech sv\u011bta.<\/p>\n

V tropick\u00e9m Pacifiku letos b\u011bhem jara doch\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0velmi rychl\u00e9mu oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed oce\u00e1nu, kter\u00e9 vedlo k\u00a0p\u0159echodu do tepl\u00e9 f\u00e1ze El Ni\u00f1o. V\u00fdvoj nav\u00edc p\u0159ekonal o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed meteorologick\u00fdch model\u016f. Zat\u00edmco na konci dubna p\u0159edpokl\u00e1daly teplotn\u00ed odchylku kolem +0,5\u00a0\u00b0C, skute\u010dn\u00e9 hodnoty se u\u017e bl\u00ed\u017eily +1\u00a0\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

Anal\u00fdza port\u00e1lu Severe Weather Europe<\/a> nazna\u010duje, \u017ee El Ni\u00f1o u\u017e p\u0159ed leto\u0161n\u00edm l\u00e9tem p\u0159e\u0161lo do pln\u011b rozvinut\u00e9 f\u00e1ze. P\u0159esto\u017ee vliv ENSO na Evropu neb\u00fdv\u00e1 tak v\u00fdrazn\u00fd jako v\u00a0jin\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1stech sv\u011bta, zm\u011bny v\u00a0atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 cirkulaci se mohou projevit i\u00a0nad evropsk\u00fdm kontinentem.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Nad Evropou m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159evl\u00e1dnout tepl\u00e9 proud\u011bn\u00ed<\/p>\n

Historick\u00e1 data z\u00a0let s\u00a0podobn\u00fdm v\u00fdvojem ENSO i\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9 modelov\u00e9 v\u00fdstupy nazna\u010duj\u00ed \u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdskyt tlakov\u00e9 n\u00ed\u017ee u\u00a0z\u00e1padn\u00edho pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Evropy. Takov\u00e1 situace by podporovala p\u0159\u00edliv tepl\u00e9ho vzduchu od jihu.<\/p>\n

Foto: Severe Weather Europe\/UKMO<\/p>\n

P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f teplot na letn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce v\u00a0Evrop\u011b podle modelu UKMO<\/p>\n

Dlouhodob\u00e9 modely ECMWF a\u00a0UKMO tento trend potvrzuj\u00ed. Pro letn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce p\u0159edpokl\u00e1daj\u00ed nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty nad v\u011bt\u0161inou Evropy, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed odchylky o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed hlavn\u011b ve st\u0159edn\u00ed a\u00a0severn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti kontinentu.<\/p>\n

P\u0159edpov\u011bdi sr\u00e1\u017eek jsou v\u00edce nejist\u00e9, zejm\u00e9na model ECMWF v\u0161ak nazna\u010duje podpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 \u00fahrny ve st\u0159edn\u00ed Evrop\u011b. V\u00a0kombinaci s\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi teplotami by to zv\u00fd\u0161ilo riziko sucha. Sou\u010dasn\u011b by ale tepl\u00e9 ji\u017en\u00ed proud\u011bn\u00ed mohlo p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161et v\u00edce energie pro vznik lok\u00e1ln\u00edch p\u0159\u00edvalov\u00fdch sr\u00e1\u017eek a\u00a0bou\u0159ek.<\/p>\n

Je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pozornost meteorolog\u016f v\u0161ak bud\u00ed v\u00fdvoj po l\u00e9t\u011b. F\u00e1ze ENSO se toti\u017e obvykle nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bji projevuj\u00ed b\u011bhem podzimu a\u00a0zimy. Sou\u010dasn\u00e9 rychl\u00e9 oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed tropick\u00e9ho Pacifiku proto vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 obavy z\u00a0mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b siln\u00e9ho pr\u016fb\u011bhu tohoto jevu.<\/p>\n

Ve h\u0159e je super El Ni\u00f1o<\/p>\n

U\u017e na za\u010d\u00e1tku jara se za\u010dalo diskutovat o\u00a0mo\u017enosti takzvan\u00e9ho super El Ni\u00f1a<\/a>. Takto siln\u00e1 epizoda nast\u00e1v\u00e1 ve chv\u00edli, kdy teplotn\u00ed odchylka oce\u00e1nu v\u00a0oblasti ENSO dos\u00e1hne alespo\u0148 +2\u00a0\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

Foto: ECMWF<\/p>\n

P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f teplotn\u00ed odchylky v\u00a0oblasti tropick\u00e9ho Pacifiku podle modelu ECMWF<\/p>\n

Meteorologov\u00e9 zpo\u010d\u00e1tku upozor\u0148ovali na takzvanou jarn\u00ed bari\u00e9ru model\u016f, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed v\u00a0jarn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch tendenci budouc\u00ed s\u00edlu El Ni\u00f1a nadhodnocovat. Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj v\u00a0Pacifiku i\u00a0aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed modelov\u00e9 v\u00fdstupy ale sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 velmi siln\u00e9ho El Ni\u00f1a st\u00e1le v\u00edce podporuj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Posledn\u00ed kv\u011btnov\u00fd v\u00fdstup modelu ECMWF<\/a> dokonce p\u0159isuzuje n\u00e1stupu super El Ni\u00f1a b\u011bhem podzimu stoprocentn\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost. Podobn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj ukazuje i\u00a0v\u011bt\u0161ina dal\u0161\u00edch model\u016f. N\u011bkter\u00e9 z\u00a0nich p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed mo\u017enost jedn\u00e9 z\u00a0nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edch tepl\u00fdch f\u00e1z\u00ed ENSO v\u00a0historii m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Super El Ni\u00f1o m\u00edv\u00e1 v\u00fdrazn\u011b siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed dopad na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed ne\u017e b\u011b\u017en\u00e1 tepl\u00e1 f\u00e1ze ENSO. M\u016f\u017ee urychlit r\u016fst glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty a\u00a0zv\u00fd\u0161it \u010detnost extr\u00e9mn\u00edch projev\u016f po\u010das\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch z\u00e1plav, v\u00fdrazn\u00e9ho sucha nebo intenzivn\u00edch vln veder. V\u00fdvoj v\u00a0tropick\u00e9m Pacifiku proto meteorologov\u00e9 po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b pe\u010dliv\u011b sleduj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0\u2013 Ji\u017en\u00ed oscilace (ENSO) ozna\u010duje syst\u00e9m oce\u00e1nsk\u00e9 a\u00a0atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 cirkulace v\u00a0rovn\u00edkov\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti Tich\u00e9ho oce\u00e1nu. Jeho tepl\u00e1 f\u00e1ze El…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":79496,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[9267,109,108,106,255,7031,54,493,2848,11784],"class_list":{"0":"post-79495","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-evropa","8":"tag-el-nino","9":"tag-europa","10":"tag-europe","11":"tag-evropa","12":"tag-pocasi","13":"tag-sucho","14":"tag-svet","15":"tag-teplo","16":"tag-tichy-ocean-pacifik","17":"tag-vedro"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116539317579310414","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79495","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79495"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79495\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79496"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79495"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79495"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79495"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}