Co se stane, a\u017e zbran\u011b na ukrajinsk\u00e9m boji\u0161ti ztrat\u00ed sv\u016fj p\u016fvodn\u00ed \u00fa\u010del? Lars Gerdes z Frontexu m\u00e1 jasno \u2013 \u010d\u00e1st z nich m\u016f\u017ee skon\u010dit na \u010dern\u00e9m trhu. Z\u00e1stupce \u0159editele evropsk\u00e9 pohrani\u010dn\u00ed agentury varuje p\u0159ed mo\u017en\u00fdm n\u00e1r\u016fstem pa\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed zbran\u00ed z Ukrajiny do EU.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Riziko ozna\u010duje za \u201evysok\u00e9\u201c a p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1, co se stalo po v\u00e1lk\u00e1ch v b\u00fdval\u00e9 Jugosl\u00e1vii. Tehdy se ileg\u00e1ln\u00ed zbran\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ily po cel\u00e9 Evrop\u011b. Dnes by se podobn\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 mohl opakovat \u2013 jen v mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku.<\/p>\n
Frontex u\u017e od za\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky v roce 2022 posiluje svou p\u0159\u00edtomnost pod\u00e9l z\u00e1padn\u00edch hranic Ukrajiny. Gerdes v rozhovoru pro n\u011bmeck\u00fd den\u00edk WELT zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee agentura situaci pe\u010dliv\u011b monitoruje.<\/p>\n
\u201eP\u0159ipravujeme se na to od za\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky,\u201c \u0159ekl. \u201eRiziko pova\u017euji za obzvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 vysok\u00e9 po p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed nebo m\u00edrov\u00e9 dohod\u011b. V zemi bude obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed zbran\u00ed, munice a v\u00fdbu\u0161nin \u2013 a spousta lid\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed budou pot\u0159ebovat pen\u00edze.\u201c<\/p>\n
Obavy evropsk\u00fdch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch slo\u017eek jsou jednoduch\u00e9: a\u017e v\u00e1lka skon\u010d\u00ed, \u010d\u00e1st zbran\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee zam\u00ed\u0159it na \u010dern\u00fd trh. A z\u00e1jemc\u016f m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt dost \u2013 od organizovan\u00e9ho zlo\u010dinu a\u017e po extremistick\u00e9 skupiny.<\/p>\n
Po rozpadu Jugosl\u00e1vie v 90. letech se Evropa pot\u00fdkala s p\u0159\u00edlivem neleg\u00e1ln\u00edch zbran\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b dlouh\u00e1 l\u00e9ta. Automatick\u00e9 pu\u0161ky, gran\u00e1ty nebo v\u00fdbu\u0161niny tehdy kon\u010dily na \u010dern\u00e9m trhu po cel\u00e9m kontinentu.<\/p>\n
Ukrajina dnes p\u0159edstavuje podobn\u00e9 \u2013 a mo\u017en\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u2013 riziko. Po rozpadu Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu v roce 1991 zd\u011bdila obrovsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby. Mezi lety 1992 a 1998 podle dostupn\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u016f zmizel vojensk\u00fd materi\u00e1l v hodnot\u011b 32 miliard dolar\u016f. Mezi lety 2013 a 2015 se ztratilo nebo bylo ukradeno nejm\u00e9n\u011b 300 tis\u00edc kus\u016f ru\u010dn\u00edch paln\u00fdch zbran\u00ed.<\/p>\n
A to bylo v dob\u011b m\u00edru. Po \u010dty\u0159ech letech intenzivn\u00ed v\u00e1lky je objem zbran\u00ed v zemi nesrovnateln\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n
K za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2026 neexistuj\u00ed d\u016fkazy o masivn\u00edm mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm pa\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed zbran\u00ed z Ukrajiny. \u010cesk\u00e1 Bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed informa\u010dn\u00ed slu\u017eba (BIS) i N\u00e1rodn\u00ed centr\u00e1la proti organizovan\u00e9mu zlo\u010dinu (NCOZ) zat\u00edm zaznamenaly jen jednotliv\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpady. Ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady z\u00e1rove\u0148 tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee situaci maj\u00ed pod kontrolou a \u017ee pravidla pro nakl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed se zbran\u011bmi z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsn\u00e1.<\/p>\n
P\u0159esto se od z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2024 objevuj\u00ed prvn\u00ed zn\u00e1mky r\u016fstu organizovan\u00e9ho pa\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed uvnit\u0159 samotn\u00e9 Ukrajiny. V lednu 2026 ukrajinsk\u00e1 Bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed slu\u017eba (SBU) a N\u00e1rodn\u00ed policie odhalily rozs\u00e1hlou s\u00ed\u0165 obchodn\u00edk\u016f se zbran\u011bmi. Polsk\u00e9 i dal\u0161\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed slo\u017eky se proto p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed na sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, kdy po skon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky zaplav\u00ed \u010dern\u00fd trh ru\u010dn\u00ed zbran\u011b, v\u00fdbu\u0161niny nebo gran\u00e1ty.<\/p>\n
\u010cesk\u00e1 republika nav\u00edc diskutuje o zp\u0159\u00edsn\u011bn\u00ed kontrol autobusov\u00e9 dopravy mezi ob\u011bma zem\u011bmi pr\u00e1v\u011b kv\u016fli obav\u00e1m z pa\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed vojensk\u00e9ho materi\u00e1lu.<\/p>\n
Bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed experti upozor\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed riziko p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed men\u0161\u00ed a snadno p\u0159epraviteln\u00e9 z\u00e1silky. Organizovan\u00fd zlo\u010din se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zam\u011b\u0159\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b na n\u011b, proto\u017ee se obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bji odhaluj\u00ed.<\/p>\n
Europol i polsk\u00e1 policie z\u00e1rove\u0148 varuj\u00ed, \u017ee Ukrajina by se po v\u00e1lce mohla st\u00e1t v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm uzlem neleg\u00e1ln\u00edho obchodu se zbran\u011bmi \u2013 podobn\u011b jako Balk\u00e1n po konfliktech v 90. letech.<\/p>\n
Frontex posiluje hranice, BIS monitoruje, NCOZ vy\u0161et\u0159uje. Ale co kdy\u017e to nesta\u010d\u00ed? Balk\u00e1nsk\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 trval desetilet\u00ed. Kolik let bude trvat ten ukrajinsk\u00fd? A co ud\u011bl\u00e1 Evropa, a\u017e se prvn\u00ed gran\u00e1ty objev\u00ed v Praze, Berl\u00edn\u011b nebo Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei?<\/p>\n
Zdroj info: politico.eu<\/p>\n
Autor: Marek H\u00e1jek <\/p>\n
Foto: Vytvo\u0159eno um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed v\u00a0ChatGPT<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Co se stane, a\u017e zbran\u011b na ukrajinsk\u00e9m boji\u0161ti ztrat\u00ed sv\u016fj p\u016fvodn\u00ed \u00fa\u010del? Lars Gerdes z Frontexu m\u00e1 jasno…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":82575,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[3],"tags":[5827,109,108,106,110,1436],"class_list":["post-82574","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-evropa","tag-balkan","tag-europa","tag-europe","tag-evropa","tag-ukrajina","tag-zbrane"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116558058369732185","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82574","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82574"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82574\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/82575"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82574"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82574"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82574"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}