\u010c\u00edna se v\u00a0konfliktech na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b \u010dasto popisuje jako st\u00e1t, kter\u00fd dok\u00e1\u017ee \u010dekat, obchodovat a\u00a0sb\u00edrat v\u00fdhody z\u00a0ciz\u00edho chaosu. Nen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edmo zapojen\u00e1 jako Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, nem\u00e1 v\u00a0regionu stejn\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 b\u0159emeno a\u00a0um\u00ed mluvit jazykem stability, obchodu a\u00a0nez\u00e1padn\u00ed diplomacie. V\u00e1lka s\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nem ale ukazuje, \u017ee tato p\u0159edstava m\u00e1 tvrd\u00fd limit. Zem\u011b, kter\u00e1 stav\u00ed svou moc na v\u00fdrob\u011b, exportu a\u00a0dovozu energie, nem\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt k\u00a0rozvratu Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu lhostejn\u00e1.<\/p>\n
V tom je hlavn\u00ed paradox. \u010c\u00edna je dnes siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159i p\u0159edchoz\u00edch energetick\u00fdch \u0161oc\u00edch. M\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed strategick\u00e9 z\u00e1soby, \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed s\u00ed\u0165 dodavatel\u016f, vysok\u00fd pod\u00edl dom\u00e1c\u00ed v\u00fdroby energie, rychle rostouc\u00ed elektromobilitu a\u00a0obrovskou pr\u016fmyslovou z\u00e1kladnu. Jen\u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b velikost jej\u00ed ekonomiky znamen\u00e1, \u017ee i\u00a0\u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00fd ot\u0159es p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed v\u00a0mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9m m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku. Kdy\u017e zdra\u017e\u00ed ropa, nejde jen o\u00a0ceny na \u010derpac\u00edch stanic\u00edch. Zdra\u017euje se chemie, logistika, hnojiva, plasty, v\u00fdroba, export a\u00a0nakonec i\u00a0schopnost \u010c\u00edny prod\u00e1vat sv\u011btu levn\u011bji ne\u017e konkurence.<\/p>\n
\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka nav\u00edc p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed ve chv\u00edli, kdy \u010c\u00edna pot\u0159ebuje klid. Dom\u00e1c\u00ed popt\u00e1vka z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 slab\u00e1, realitn\u00ed sektor se st\u00e1le nevzpamatoval, pr\u016fmysl bojuje s\u00a0n\u00edzk\u00fdmi mar\u017eemi a\u00a0Peking se sna\u017e\u00ed udr\u017eet r\u016fst p\u0159es v\u00fdvoz. Pokud se ale zpomal\u00ed sv\u011bt, zpomal\u00ed se i\u00a0popt\u00e1vka po \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9m zbo\u017e\u00ed. A\u00a0pokud se sou\u010dasn\u011b zvednou vstupn\u00ed n\u00e1klady, \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd exportn\u00ed model dost\u00e1v\u00e1 r\u00e1nu z\u00a0obou stran.<\/p>\n
Hormuz uk\u00e1zal slabinu \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 energieDrah\u00e1 energie zasahuje \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 tov\u00e1rny<\/p>\n
\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 v\u00fdhoda dlouho st\u00e1la na jednoduch\u00e9 kombinaci: velk\u00e1 v\u00fdroba, siln\u00e1 logistika, n\u00edzk\u00e9 jednotkov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady a\u00a0schopnost rychle zaplavit sv\u011bt zbo\u017e\u00edm. Energetick\u00fd \u0161ok tento mechanismus nerozbije p\u0159es noc, ale zhor\u0161\u00ed jeho aritmetiku. Dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed ropa se prom\u00edt\u00e1 do rafineri\u00ed, chemick\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu, dopravy a\u00a0cen vstup\u016f. Dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed plyn zasahuje hnojiva, pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 plyny a\u00a0energeticky n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00fdroby. V\u00a0ekonomice, kter\u00e1 po\u0159\u00e1d vyr\u00e1b\u00ed obrovsk\u00fd pod\u00edl sv\u011btov\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed, m\u00e1 i\u00a0mal\u00fd r\u016fst vstupn\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f velk\u00fd dopad.<\/p>\n
To je pro Peking nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e9. \u010c\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed politici pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed rozh\u00fdbat dom\u00e1c\u00ed spot\u0159ebu, ale drah\u00e9 vstupy ji mohou naopak zadusit. Pokud v\u00fdrobci prom\u00edtnou n\u00e1klady do cen, dom\u00e1cnosti nakupuj\u00ed opatrn\u011bji. Pokud je neprom\u00edtnou, klesaj\u00ed mar\u017ee firem. V\u00a0obou p\u0159\u00edpadech se zhor\u0161uje prost\u0159ed\u00ed pro r\u016fst, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 u\u017e tak slab\u0161\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed z\u00e1klad. \u010c\u00edna by pot\u0159ebovala spot\u0159ebitelskou d\u016fv\u011bru, stabiln\u00ed zam\u011bstnanost a\u00a0zlep\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se firemn\u00ed zisky. Energetick\u00fd \u0161ok j\u00ed nab\u00edz\u00ed dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdrobu a\u00a0nerv\u00f3zn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 odb\u011bratele.<\/p>\n
Peking je odoln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e soused\u00e9, ale nen\u00ed nezraniteln\u00fd<\/p>\n
Zelen\u00e9 technologie mohou \u010d\u00e1st \u0161kod tlumit. \u010c\u00edna dominuje sol\u00e1rn\u00edm panel\u016fm, bateri\u00edm i\u00a0elektromobil\u016fm a\u00a0drah\u00e1 fosiln\u00ed energie m\u016f\u017ee zv\u00fd\u0161it z\u00e1jem o\u00a0levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed elektrifikaci. Jen\u017ee ani tento p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh nen\u00ed automatick\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl zelen\u00fdch technologi\u00ed trp\u00ed nadkapacitou, cenovou v\u00e1lkou a\u00a0obchodn\u00edm odporem v\u00a0Evrop\u011b i\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch trz\u00edch. Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed popt\u00e1vka po bateri\u00edch nebo sol\u00e1rech m\u016f\u017ee pomoci konkr\u00e9tn\u00edm firm\u00e1m, ale nemus\u00ed vyv\u00e1\u017eit \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed \u00fatlum sv\u011btov\u00e9 popt\u00e1vky po \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9m zbo\u017e\u00ed.<\/p>\n
V\u00e1lka s\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nem tak odhaluje n\u011bco podstatn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho ne\u017e oby\u010dejnou energetickou z\u00e1vislost. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd model je siln\u00fd, dokud m\u016f\u017ee kombinovat levn\u00e9 vstupy, masivn\u00ed v\u00fdrobu a\u00a0otev\u0159en\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 trhy. Jakmile se tyto t\u0159i v\u011bci zhor\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1rove\u0148, z\u00a0velmocensk\u00e9 trp\u011blivosti se st\u00e1v\u00e1 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd stres. <\/p>\n
Peking m\u016f\u017ee z\u00a0krize diplomaticky t\u011b\u017eit, m\u016f\u017ee oslabovat obraz americk\u00e9ho vlivu a\u00a0m\u016f\u017ee hledat nov\u00e9 trasy p\u0159es Rusko, St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii nebo severn\u00ed Afriku. T\u00edm ale nevyma\u017ee z\u00e1kladn\u00ed fakt: jeho ekonomika pot\u0159ebuje stabiln\u00ed sv\u011bt v\u00edc, ne\u017e jeho r\u00e9torika p\u0159izn\u00e1v\u00e1.<\/p>\n
Do\u010detli jste a\u017e sem? Podpo\u0159te autora libovolnou \u010d\u00e1stkou.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u010c\u00edna se v\u00a0konfliktech na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b \u010dasto popisuje jako st\u00e1t, kter\u00fd dok\u00e1\u017ee \u010dekat, obchodovat a\u00a0sb\u00edrat v\u00fdhody z\u00a0ciz\u00edho chaosu.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":82641,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[202,883,808,849,703,174,54,113,645,53,52],"class_list":{"0":"post-82640","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-svet","8":"tag-cina","9":"tag-finance","10":"tag-iran","11":"tag-obchod","12":"tag-penize","13":"tag-politika","14":"tag-svet","15":"tag-usa","16":"tag-valka","17":"tag-world","18":"tag-world-news"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116558876081478849","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82640","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82640"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82640\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/82641"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82640"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82640"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82640"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}