esej<\/a> pro Free Press ekonomick\u00fd historik Niall Ferguson a\u00a0z\u00e1rove\u0148 se p\u0159izn\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee se v\u00a0prvn\u00edch \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch o\u00a0v\u00e1lce Ruska s\u00a0Ukrajinou i\u00a0ve sv\u00fdch prvn\u00edch leto\u0161n\u00edch \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch o\u00a0americko-izraelsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce s\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nem dosti m\u00fdlil.<\/p>\nOhledn\u011b rusk\u00e9 agrese p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dal\u00a0\u2013 podobn\u011b jako v\u011bt\u0161ina z\u00e1padn\u00edch tajn\u00fdch slu\u017eeb\u00a0\u2013, \u017ee Ukrajina bude brzy p\u0159emo\u017eena. Kdy\u017e zjistil, \u017ee Ukrajinci vyhr\u00e1li bitvu o\u00a0Kyjev a\u00a0zastavili rusk\u00fd postup, odhadoval, \u017ee nastane p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. Trvalo mu rok, ne\u017e pou\u017eil v\u00fdraz \u201epatov\u00e1 situace\u201c. Po \u010dty\u0159ech letech a\u00a0necel\u00fdch t\u0159ech m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch v\u00e1lka st\u00e1le zu\u0159\u00ed. Nevzpom\u00edn\u00e1 si na nikoho, kdo by tehdy \u0159\u00edkal, \u017ee v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b bude trvat stejn\u011b dlouho jako 1.\u00a0sv\u011btov\u00e1.<\/p>\n
Nyn\u00ed si autor \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee podobnou chybu ud\u011blal s\u00a0americkou operac\u00ed Epic Fury v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu. Kdy\u017e za\u010dala, byl si jist, \u017ee to bude kr\u00e1tk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka. Nyn\u00ed u\u017e je to deset t\u00fddn\u016f od jej\u00edho za\u010d\u00e1tku. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b m\u016f\u017eete b\u00fdt jedn\u00edm z\u00a0t\u011bch optimist\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00e1lka u\u017e skon\u010dila, kdy\u017e bylo 8.\u00a0dubna ozn\u00e1meno p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. Ale p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed nen\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00e1 dohoda. Vezm\u011bme si ud\u00e1losti posledn\u00edch dn\u016f: 29.\u00a0dubna se na z\u00e1klad\u011b \u00faniku informac\u00ed psalo, \u017ee americk\u00e1 administrativa zva\u017euje mo\u017enost vzniku nov\u00e9 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed koalice na otev\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu; 4.\u00a0kv\u011btna americk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed velen\u00ed (CENTCOM) ozn\u00e1milo Project Freedom, tedy kvazi eskortn\u00ed misi za \u00fa\u010delem doprov\u00e1zen\u00ed komer\u010dn\u00edch lod\u00ed. N\u00e1sledovaly \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 dronov\u00e9 a\u00a0raketov\u00e9 \u00fatoky na Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty, a\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 revolu\u010dn\u00ed\u00a0gardy dokonce spustily dronov\u00fd a\u00a0raketov\u00fd \u00fatok na americk\u00e9 lod\u011b. Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 ozn\u00e1mili potopen\u00ed\u00a0\u0161esti rychl\u00fdch \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch \u010dlun\u016f. Pak Trump operaci Project Freedom na \u201ekr\u00e1tkou dobu\u201c p\u0159eru\u0161il.<\/p>\n
Leckdo se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee Amerika a\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1n jsou bl\u00edzko dohod\u011b o\u00a014bodov\u00e9m memorandu. Woodrow Wilson 8.\u00a0ledna 1918\u00a0tak\u00e9 ozn\u00e1mil \u010dtrn\u00e1ctibodov\u00e9 memorandum. A\u00a0v\u00e1lka\u00a0trvala je\u0161t\u011b dal\u0161\u00edch deset m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f.<\/p>\n
Pokud by bylo memorandum schv\u00e1leno, otev\u0159e se teprve za 30\u00a0dn\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o\u00a0znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu a\u00a0omezen\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho programu. Omez\u00ed se na\u00a0p\u011bt, deset nebo t\u0159icet let. Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 cht\u011bj\u00ed, aby \u00cdr\u00e1n omezil obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed uranu na 3,67\u00a0procenta a\u00a0zav\u00e1zal se neaspirovat na z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed\u00a0jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, nepou\u017e\u00edval podzemn\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a\u00a0otev\u0159el se mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm inspekc\u00edm.<\/p>\n
Co se mezit\u00edm stalo s\u00a0americkou blok\u00e1dou pr\u016flivu? Leckdo se\u00a0domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee blok\u00e1da funguje a\u00a0m\u016f\u017ee zp\u016fsobit kolaps \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ekonomiky. Jen\u017ee probl\u00e9m s\u00a0ekonomickou v\u00e1lkou je, \u017ee je je\u0161t\u011b pomalej\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v\u00e1lka skute\u010dn\u00e1. Vzpome\u0148me si, kterak m\u011bly sankce uvr\u017een\u00e9 Z\u00e1padem na Rusko v\u00a0roce 2022\u00a0zp\u016fsobit kolaps rusk\u00e9 ekonomiky. Probl\u00e9m je v\u017edycky stejn\u00fd nebo podobn\u00fd. Sankce na nep\u0159\u00edtele poka\u017ed\u00e9 po\u0161kozuj\u00ed i\u00a0toho, kdo s\u00a0nimi p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed. P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm sankce na ruskou ropu nebyly nikdy pln\u011b spu\u0161t\u011bny a\u00a0dodr\u017eov\u00e1ny. Bidenova administrativa necht\u011bla zhor\u0161it u\u017e tak nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00fd infla\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdvoj. A\u00a0Evropan\u00e9 se nikdy nepokusili pln\u011b se od Ruska od\u0159\u00edznout.<\/p>\n
Uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu Ameri\u010dany (\u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed tomu Economic Fury) m\u00e1 \u00cdr\u00e1nu zp\u016fsobit ekonomick\u00e9 trable. Jen\u017ee tento americko-\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd joint venture zp\u016fsobuje probl\u00e9my ka\u017ed\u00e9mu. Ot\u00e1zka je pouze takov\u00e1, kdo m\u00e1 vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pr\u00e1h bolesti.<\/p>\n
MMF odhaduje \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 rezervy na 26,2\u00a0miliardy dolar\u016f. Blok\u00e1da p\u0159ipravuje \u00cdr\u00e1n odhadem o\u00a0120\u00a0milion\u016f dolar\u016f denn\u011b. M\u011b\u0159eno jen rezervami m\u016f\u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n odol\u00e1vat 14\u00a0m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 m\u011bna je ve voln\u00e9m p\u00e1du, inflace raketov\u011b roste, ceny potravin v\u00a0Teher\u00e1nu stoupaj\u00ed o\u00a025\u00a0procent ka\u017ed\u00fd den.<\/p>\n
\u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 ale cesty, jak kolaps oddalovat: t\u0159etina a\u017e polovina \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch import\u016f je prov\u00e1d\u011bna letecky a\u00a0po zemi a\u00a0je v\u016f\u010di blok\u00e1d\u011b imunn\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1n byl v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech velmi \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd v\u00a0t\u011b\u017eb\u011b bitcoin\u016f a\u00a0vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed kryptom\u011bn. T\u0159icet procent \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch dovoz\u016f poch\u00e1z\u00ed z\u00a0\u010c\u00edny, stejn\u011b jako vojensk\u00e1 podpora re\u017eimu.<\/p>\n
Doch\u00e1z\u00ed Ir\u00e1nu mo\u017enost skladovat ropu? Nen\u00ed to jednoduch\u00e9, ale mo\u017enosti zem\u011b m\u00e1. M\u016f\u017ee zv\u00fd\u0161it v\u00fdrobu rafinovan\u00fdch produkt\u016f a\u00a0jejich v\u00fdvoz p\u0159es hranice. M\u016f\u017ee vyu\u017e\u00edvat des\u00edtek pr\u00e1zdn\u00fdch tanker\u016f. M\u016f\u017ee vyu\u017e\u00edvat mal\u00fdch lod\u00ed na p\u0159epravu barel\u016f. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd re\u017eim a\u00a0ekonomika mohou zkolabovat, ale nen\u00ed to z\u00e1kladn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159.<\/p>\n
Mezit\u00edm za\u010dne\u00a0na cel\u00fd sv\u011bt dopadat nab\u00eddkov\u00fd \u0161ok. Nejde jen o\u00a0zkapaln\u011bn\u00fd plyn. Jde o\u00a0hnojiva, s\u00edru, helium a\u00a0mnoho dal\u0161\u00edho. Podle Sv\u011btov\u00e9 banky porostou letos ceny komodit o\u00a016\u00a0procent, ceny energi\u00ed o\u00a024\u00a0procent, ceny hnojiv o\u00a031\u00a0procent. Tyto v\u00fdpo\u010dty\u00a0ale po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee blok\u00e1dy skon\u010d\u00ed tento m\u011bs\u00edc a\u00a0p\u0159eprava se do \u0159\u00edjna vr\u00e1t\u00ed na p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dnou \u00farove\u0148.<\/p>\n
Nejv\u00edc v\u0161e dopadne na rozvojov\u00e9 zem\u011b, ale ani Amerika nebude imunn\u00ed. Kdy\u017e vzrostou ceny energi\u00ed, zdra\u017e\u00ed se nakonec v\u0161echno, co se prod\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00a0obchodn\u00edch domech.<\/p>\n
Ferguson se zeptal um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence a\u00a0ta mu \u0159ekla, \u017ee pokud by blok\u00e1dy pokra\u010dovaly je\u0161t\u011b v\u00a0\u010dervenci, za\u010dnou zem\u011b jako Japonsko a\u00a0Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea systematicky zav\u00edrat pr\u016fmysl. Pokud by pokra\u010dovaly je\u0161t\u011b p\u016fl roku, m\u016f\u017ee se p\u0159idat kolaps sv\u011btov\u00e9ho zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed kv\u016fli akutn\u00edmu nedostatku hnojiv.\u00a0Recese nakonec p\u0159ijde i\u00a0do USA, je\u017e jsou nejv\u00edce imunn\u00ed.<\/p>\n
Ir\u00e1nci tedy mo\u017en\u00e1 nemaj\u00ed d\u016fvod s\u00a0dohodou sp\u011bchat, sp\u00ed\u0161e se budou sna\u017eit, aby cel\u00fd sv\u011bt nejprve po\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b ekonomicky poc\u00edtil dopady blok\u00e1d.<\/p>\n
Autor je prezidentem think tanku Strategeo<\/a>, p\u016fsob\u00ed jako visiting fellow spole\u010dnosti Globsec a\u00a0je \u010dlenem sboru extern\u00edch poradc\u016f prezidenta Petra Pavla pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u201eOhledn\u011b ekonomick\u00fdch v\u011bc\u00ed v\u0161echno trv\u00e1 daleko d\u00e9le, ne\u017e si mysl\u00edte, ale pak se to v\u0161echno stane rychleji, ne\u017e…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":76422,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[4495,8092,202,353,708,6387,808,268,205,54,113,645,56,53,52],"class_list":{"0":"post-83613","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-svet","8":"tag-blizky-vychod","9":"tag-blokada","10":"tag-cina","11":"tag-dronovy-utok","12":"tag-ekonomika","13":"tag-hormuzsky-pruliv","14":"tag-iran","15":"tag-jaderne-zbrane","16":"tag-ropa","17":"tag-svet","18":"tag-usa","19":"tag-valka","20":"tag-valka-rusko-ukrajina","21":"tag-world","22":"tag-world-news"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116563307579437130","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83613","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=83613"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83613\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/76422"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=83613"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=83613"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=83613"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}