{"id":85229,"date":"2026-05-14T09:45:13","date_gmt":"2026-05-14T09:45:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/85229\/"},"modified":"2026-05-14T09:45:13","modified_gmt":"2026-05-14T09:45:13","slug":"dva-rozpocty-a-kreativni-ucetnictvi-jak-schillerova-maskuje-miliardove-sekery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/85229\/","title":{"rendered":"Dva rozpo\u010dty a kreativn\u00ed \u00fa\u010detnictv\u00ed. Jak Schillerov\u00e1 maskuje miliardov\u00e9 sekery"},"content":{"rendered":"

N\u011bco tu nehraje. V\u00a0programov\u00e9m prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed vl\u00e1dy<\/a>\u00a0premi\u00e9ra Andreje Babi\u0161e se v\u00a0kapitolce \u201eZdrav\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 finance\u201c p\u00ed\u0161e: \u201eVe\u0159ejn\u00e9 finance \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky budeme udr\u017eovat bl\u00edzko vyrovnan\u00e9 bilance, a to bezpe\u010dn\u011b pod hranic\u00ed t\u0159\u00edprocentn\u00edho deficitu po\u017eadovan\u00e9 Paktem stability a r\u016fstu.\u201c<\/p>\n

A z\u00e1rove\u0148 tu m\u00e1me jarn\u00ed progn\u00f3zu \u010cesk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banky, kde si\u00a0v\u00a0tabulce o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdch makroekonomick\u00fdch indik\u00e1tor\u016f<\/a>\u00a0m\u016f\u017eeme p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka pro p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok v\u011b\u0161t\u00ed struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed saldo minus 3,1 procenta HDP. Na obvyklou pomoc deficitn\u00edm ministerstv\u016fm v\u00a0podob\u011b p\u0159ebytk\u016f zdravotn\u00edch poji\u0161\u0165oven \u010di obc\u00ed ji\u017e nelze spol\u00e9hat. Poji\u0161\u0165ovny se nyn\u00ed naopak musej\u00ed sanovat. A skon\u010dilo i mnohalet\u00e9 syslen\u00ed miliard na \u00fa\u010dtech obc\u00ed a kraj\u016f. Minul\u00fd rok obce poprv\u00e9 v\u00edce utr\u00e1cely, ne\u017e kolik dostaly.<\/p>\n

Opravdu v\u0161e nasv\u011bd\u010duje tomu, \u017ee je\u0161t\u011b ani nezaschl inkoust na programov\u00e9m prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed st\u00e1le je\u0161t\u011b z\u00e1novn\u00ed vl\u00e1dy a u\u017e je poru\u0161en z\u00e1kladn\u00ed rozpo\u010dtov\u00fd slib. O tom, \u017ee jej\u00ed chv\u00e1stav\u00fd program pokra\u010duje p\u0159\u00edslibem vyrovnan\u00fdch a n\u00e1sledn\u011b p\u0159ebytkov\u00fdch rozpo\u010dt\u016f asi u\u017e ani nem\u00e1 smysl se zmi\u0148ovat.<\/p>\n

Co takto prudk\u00e9 rozvoln\u011bn\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch financ\u00ed \u010cesku p\u0159inese? Rozd\u011blme to na politickou \u010d\u00e1st p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhu a na tu ekonomickou. To jsou nyn\u00ed dost jin\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhy, by\u0165 podobn\u011b smutn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Rozpo\u010det a mimorozpo\u010det<\/p>\n

Za\u010dn\u011bme tou politickou \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed.\u00a0Ekonom Miroslav Z\u00e1me\u010dn\u00edk tu ji\u017e p\u0159ed t\u00fddnem velmi dob\u0159e popsal, jak si vl\u00e1da brous\u00ed zuby na nov\u00e9 bilionov\u00e9 fakticky mimorozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 v\u00fddaje<\/a>. To si ov\u0161em \u017e\u00e1d\u00e1 mimo\u0159\u00e1dnou politickou a r\u00e9torickou ekvilibristiku, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b pokud m\u00e1te v\u00a0programov\u00e9m prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed to, co tam m\u00e1te.<\/p>\n

Ale Andrej Babi\u0161 a ministryn\u011b financ\u00ed Alena Schillerov\u00e1 se toho neboj\u00ed. Jako z\u00e1minku si vzali nutnou novelizaci z\u00e1kona o pravidlech rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 odpov\u011bdnosti, kter\u00e1 se mus\u00ed dostat do souladu s\u00a0unijn\u00ed reformou Paktu stability a r\u016fstu z\u00a0roku 2024. Koneckonc\u016f tu legislativu u\u017e chystala p\u0159edchoz\u00ed vl\u00e1da. Vtip je v\u00a0tom, \u017ee a\u010d postaru po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1te pouze nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed deficity \u010di ponovu budete m\u00edt fisk\u00e1ln\u011b-struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed pl\u00e1ny, tak krotit deficity by \u010cesko m\u011blo tak jako tak.<\/p>\n

Jen\u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b tohle cht\u011bj\u00ed Babi\u0161 a Schillerov\u00e1 zm\u011bnit a stvo\u0159it v\u00a0podstat\u011b dva rozpo\u010dty. Jeden p\u0159edpisov\u00fd pro Brusel a ve\u0159ejnost, kde se budou kr\u00e1sn\u011b krotit v\u00fddaje. A pak druh\u00fd mimorozpo\u010dtov\u00fd, kam se nahrnou v\u0161echny drah\u00e9 priority. Aby to nevypadalo \u00fapln\u011b protikladn\u011b k\u00a0podstat\u011b unijn\u00edch pravidel, tak minist\u0159i ANO k\u00a0novele na\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed pozm\u011b\u0148ovac\u00ed n\u00e1vrhy a a\u017e tam schovaj\u00ed tyto \u010dasovan\u00e9 bomby.\u00a0Centrum ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch financ\u00ed tuto vl\u00e1dn\u00ed chytristiku dob\u0159e shrnulo<\/a>. Zat\u00edmco minul\u00e1 vl\u00e1da cht\u011bla mimo rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 limity \u201ejen\u201c v\u00fddaje na jadernou elektr\u00e1rnu Dukovany a obrann\u00e9 v\u00fddaje na dv\u011b procenta HDP, Babi\u0161 se Schillerovou tam \u017eenou \u00fapln\u011b v\u0161e: v\u0161emo\u017enou dopravn\u00ed infrastrukturu, ale i projekty partnerstv\u00ed st\u00e1tu a soukromn\u00edk\u016f PPP, a ani tam nemaj\u00ed tu z\u00e1klopku, \u017ee tento \u00fanik z\u00a0rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdch pravidel plat\u00ed a\u017e od n\u011bjak\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b. T\u0159e\u0161ni\u010dkou na dortu je pak legalizace \u0161vejkoviny s\u00a0aktu\u00e1ln\u00edm st\u00e1tn\u00edm rozpo\u010dtem na rok 2026: kdy\u017e se rozpo\u010det p\u0159epracov\u00e1v\u00e1 a znovu pod\u00e1v\u00e1 do sn\u011bmovny, tak u\u017e ani \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 pravidla neplat\u00ed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

T\u00e9to politick\u00e9 linky se ji\u017e chytla opozice, tak\u017ee se o tom u\u017e pozd\u011b, ale p\u0159ece mluv\u00ed a ve sn\u011bmovn\u011b se strhne politick\u00fd boj. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b m\u00e1lo se mluv\u00ed o ekonomick\u00fdch d\u016fsledc\u00edch.<\/p>\n

Z\u00a0obsluhy dluhu je otes\u00e1nek<\/p>\n

Vra\u0165me se je\u0161t\u011b jednou k\u00a0progn\u00f3ze centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky. Za covidu \u010cesko zahu\u010delo do obrovsk\u00fdch deficit\u016f a nebylo to ani tak kv\u016fli covidov\u00e9 pomoci, ale kv\u016fli obrovsk\u00e9mu nepokryt\u00e9mu v\u00fdpadku st\u00e1tn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f po nezvl\u00e1dnut\u00e9m ru\u0161en\u00ed superhrub\u00e9 mzdy, kter\u00fd se od t\u00e9 doby kumuluje. Kombinace m\u00edrn\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho r\u016fstu a m\u00edrn\u011b restriktivn\u00ed politiky minul\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy i p\u0159esto srazila struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed saldo z minus 5,7 procenta HDP v\u00a0roce 2020 na minus 1,6 procenta HDP v\u00a0roce 2024. Volebn\u00ed rok 2025 n\u00e1s bohu\u017eel op\u011bt dostal p\u0159es dvojku, a p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok n\u00e1s Babi\u0161ova vl\u00e1da podle \u010cNB dostane dokonce p\u0159es trojku. Co to ale znamen\u00e1 pro celkov\u00fd \u010desk\u00fd dluh? Ze\u00a045,7 procenta HDP letos v\u00fdrazn\u011b posko\u010d\u00edme na 47,2 procenta HDP p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok. V\u00a0absolutn\u00edch \u010d\u00edslech ze\u00a04,1 bilionu na 4,4 bilionu.<\/p>\n

A te\u010f si p\u0159edstavte, \u017ee se na to d\u00edvaj\u00ed trhy. Posledn\u00ed p\u0159edcovidov\u00fd rok 2019 jsme m\u011bli zadlu\u017een\u00ed 29,6 procenta HDP, po pouh\u00fdch osmi letech budeme na 47,2 procenta HDP. \u010ci jinak: z\u00a0l\u00e9ta udr\u017eovan\u00e9ho dluhu kolem 1,7 bilionu sk\u00e1\u010deme na 4,4 bilionu. Anebo je\u0161t\u011b jinak: z\u00a0obsluhy dluhu l\u00e9ta kolem 40 miliard mus\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00fd ministr financ\u00ed nejprve naj\u00edt 120 miliard, ne\u017e m\u016f\u017ee za\u010d\u00edt platit d\u016fchody a dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fddaje.<\/p>\n

\u017de jsme st\u00e1le ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se Z\u00e1padem m\u00e1lo zadlu\u017een\u00ed a \u017ee snad nikdo nemohl \u010dekat, \u017ee se Babi\u0161 se Schillerovou rozpo\u010dtov\u011b neroz\u0161oupnou? Tak tohle ut\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed u\u017e dlouho neplat\u00ed. Pod\u00edvejte se na\u00a0desetilet\u00fd dluhopis Polska<\/a>, kter\u00e9 je v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u00edce zadlu\u017een\u00e9, sek\u00e1 mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ka\u017edoro\u010dn\u00ed rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 sekyry, ale tak\u00e9 m\u00e1 dlouhodob\u00fd hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst a smyslupln\u00e9 investice. Ano, p\u016fj\u010duj\u00ed si st\u00e1le dr\u00e1\u017ee ne\u017e \u010cesko, ale vid\u00edme, \u017ee v\u00a0del\u0161\u00edm obdob\u00ed jim v\u00fdnos nestoup\u00e1, p\u0159ed hormuzsk\u00fdm dobrodru\u017estv\u00edm Donalda Trumpa dokonce na chv\u00edli prolomili p\u011btiprocentn\u00ed dno. Oproti tomu\u00a0\u010cesko pomalu, ale stabiln\u011b mus\u00ed platit v\u00edce a v\u00edce<\/a>. \u010casy, kdy si republika p\u016fj\u010dovala pod \u010dty\u0159mi procenty, jsou d\u00e1vno pry\u010d, te\u010f jsme okolo p\u011bti procent.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Extr\u00e9mn\u00ed rozvoln\u011bn\u00ed rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdch pravidel tak nen\u00ed jen politick\u00fd probl\u00e9m nestabiln\u00edch ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch financ\u00ed, kter\u00fdm republika de facto kon\u010d\u00ed s\u00a0prudentn\u00ed rozpo\u010dtovou politikou, co\u017e byl polistopadov\u00fd konsenzus, a\u0165 u\u017e vl\u00e1dla ODS, \u010cSSD nebo Andrej Babi\u0161 ve sv\u00e9m prvn\u00edm obdob\u00ed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ale bude to p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm hodn\u011b drah\u00e1 party, kdy iracionalitu \u010desk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy bude muset nahradit nel\u00edtostn\u00e1 racionalita finan\u010dn\u00edch trh\u016f.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"N\u011bco tu nehraje. V\u00a0programov\u00e9m prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed vl\u00e1dy\u00a0premi\u00e9ra Andreje Babi\u0161e se v\u00a0kapitolce \u201eZdrav\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 finance\u201c p\u00ed\u0161e: \u201eVe\u0159ejn\u00e9 finance \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":85230,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[297,266,3911,42,8462,17,21,16,137,20667,18,19,10674,22,14442,964,20],"class_list":{"0":"post-85229","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-zpravy","8":"tag-alena-schillerova","9":"tag-andrej-babis","10":"tag-ceska-narodni-banka","11":"tag-cesko","12":"tag-deficit","13":"tag-headlines","14":"tag-hlavni-udalosti","15":"tag-news","16":"tag-rozpocet","17":"tag-sekera","18":"tag-top-news","19":"tag-top-stories","20":"tag-ucetnictvi","21":"tag-udalosti-dne","22":"tag-verejne-finance","23":"tag-vlada","24":"tag-zpravy"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116572292588489526","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85229","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=85229"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85229\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/85230"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=85229"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=85229"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=85229"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}