{"id":85704,"date":"2026-05-14T16:29:11","date_gmt":"2026-05-14T16:29:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/85704\/"},"modified":"2026-05-14T16:29:11","modified_gmt":"2026-05-14T16:29:11","slug":"rusove-nemaji-silu-dobyt-donbas-hodnoti-isw","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/85704\/","title":{"rendered":"Rusov\u00e9 nemaj\u00ed s\u00edlu dob\u00fdt Donbas, hodnot\u00ed ISW"},"content":{"rendered":"

ISW nejprve shrnulo rusk\u00e9 \u00fazemn\u00ed ambice. Moskva si toti\u017e st\u00e1le n\u00e1rokuje cel\u00fd Donbas. Dal\u0161\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed podmi\u0148uje t\u00edm, \u017ee se Ukrajinci z\u00a0tohoto siln\u011b opevn\u011bn\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed st\u00e1hnou. To v\u0161ak odm\u00edtaj\u00ed. \u201eP\u0159ehnan\u00e9 \u00fazemn\u00ed ambice Ruska a\u00a0jeho agresivn\u00ed \u00fazemn\u00ed n\u00e1roky jsou v\u00a0naprost\u00e9m rozporu s\u00a0realitou na boji\u0161ti,\u201c konstatuj\u00ed ameri\u010dt\u00ed analytici ve st\u0159ede\u010dn\u00ed zpr\u00e1v\u011b<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Anonymn\u00ed zdroje bl\u00edzk\u00e9 rusk\u00e9mu v\u016fdci Vladimiru Putinovi, dal\u0161\u00ed zdroje obezn\u00e1men\u00e9 s\u00a0touto z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed i\u00a0anal\u00fdza ukrajinsk\u00e9 rozv\u011bdky, kterou z\u00edskal den\u00edk The Financial Times<\/a>, nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee Putin se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da by Donbas mohla vojensky dob\u00fdt do podzimu 2026.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

S t\u00edm ale z\u00e1sadn\u011b nesouhlas\u00ed ISW, kter\u00fd u\u017e ani nehodl\u00e1 odhadovat, za jakou dobu by se to Rusk\u00e9 federaci mohlo poda\u0159it. \u201eISW ji\u017e nen\u00ed p\u0159ipraven p\u0159edpov\u00eddat, kdy by rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly mohly obsadit Don\u011bck, v\u010detn\u011b Pevnostn\u00edho p\u00e1su, proto\u017ee zpomalen\u00ed tempa rusk\u00e9ho postupu a\u00a0n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e1 povaha ter\u00e9nu ovl\u00e1dan\u00e9ho Ukrajinou v\u00a0Don\u011bcku zpochyb\u0148uj\u00ed, zda je Rusko v\u016fbec schopno toto \u00fazem\u00ed obsadit,\u201c uvedli analytici.<\/p>\n

Postupuj\u00ed hlem\u00fd\u017ed\u00edm tempem<\/p>\n

Argument o\u00a0pomal\u00e9m postupu podpo\u0159ili statistikou \u00fazemn\u00edch zisk\u016f. Rusov\u00e9 podle nich od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2026\u00a0z\u00edskali necel\u00fdch 350\u00a0kilometr\u016f \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edch v\u00a0Don\u011bck\u00e9 oblasti, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje postup lehce p\u0159es 2,5\u00a0kilometru \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edch denn\u011b.<\/p>\n

\u201eSiln\u00e1 ukrajinsk\u00e1 opevn\u011bn\u00ed, n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e1 lidsk\u00e1 a\u00a0fyzick\u00e1 povaha ter\u00e9nu a\u00a0ukrajinsk\u00e9 proti\u00fatoky a\u00a0\u00fadery st\u0159edn\u00edho dosahu, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e br\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00fdm ofenzivn\u00edm operac\u00edm v\u00a0cel\u00e9m rozsahu v\u00e1lky, zhor\u0161uj\u00ed vyhl\u00eddky na rusk\u00e9 dobyt\u00ed zbytku Don\u011bck\u00e9 oblasti,\u201c napsali.<\/p>\n

Ukrajinci nav\u00edc na Donbase v\u00a0posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch zaznamenali \u00fasp\u011bchy. Poda\u0159ilo se jim zastavit rusk\u00fd postup od jihov\u00fdchodu na Slovjansk, vy\u010distili Lypivku od rusk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f a\u00a0tak\u00e9 se jim poda\u0159ilo vytla\u010dit rusk\u00e9 jednotky u\u00a0\u010d\u00e1sti Kos\u0165antynivky, do kter\u00e9 okupanti pronikli\u00a0loni v\u00a0\u0159\u00edjnu s\u00a0c\u00edlem napadnout p\u0159es ni od jihov\u00fdchodu Kramatorsk.<\/p>\n

\u00dasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 proti\u00fatoky<\/p>\n

\u201eUkrajinsk\u00e9 proti\u00fatoky na jihu Ukrajiny od po\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2026\u00a0rovn\u011b\u017e donutily Rusko volit mezi obranou proti ukrajinsk\u00fdm proti\u00fatok\u016fm a\u00a0p\u0159id\u011blen\u00edm lidsk\u00fdch sil a\u00a0zdroj\u016f do prioritn\u00edch sektor\u016f frontov\u00e9 linie, v\u010detn\u011b Pevnostn\u00edho p\u00e1su,\u201c m\u00edn\u00ed ISW. Proti\u00fatoky na jihu Ukrajiny mysleli Z\u00e1poro\u017eskou oblast, kde Ukrajinci osvobodili stovky kilometr\u016f \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edch \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Podle ISW ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fasp\u011bchy maj\u00ed \u201etaktick\u00e9, opera\u010dn\u00ed a\u00a0strategick\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dinky na boji\u0161ti, kter\u00e9 podkop\u00e1vaj\u00ed Putinovo tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e9 frontov\u00e9 linie jsou na pokraji kolapsu\u201c.<\/p>\n

ISW \u010dasto zmi\u0148uje takzvan\u00fd Pevnostn\u00ed p\u00e1s, do n\u011bho\u017e pat\u0159\u00ed m\u011bsta jako je Slovjansk, Kos\u0165antynivka \u010di Kramatorsk. Pokud by jej Rusov\u00e9 dobyli nebo jej jinak z\u00edskali, Moskv\u011b by se t\u00edm otev\u0159ela br\u00e1na k\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed agresi.<\/p>\n

Putin chce i\u00a0Kyjev<\/p>\n

Zpr\u00e1va The Financial Times hovo\u0159\u00ed i\u00a0o tom, \u017ee Putin se st\u00e1le nevzdal ambice dob\u00fdt Kyjev a\u00a0Od\u011bsu. \u201ePutinovo uva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed se tak zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt st\u00e1le v\u00edce vzd\u00e1len\u00e9 realit\u011b na boji\u0161ti, co\u017e pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vede k\u00a0vyd\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed rozkaz\u016f rusk\u00fdm ozbrojen\u00fdm sil\u00e1m, aby dos\u00e1hly \u00fasp\u011bch\u016f, na kter\u00e9 nejsou schopny,\u201c zakon\u010dil americk\u00fd Institut pro studium v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n

Rusov\u00e9 cel\u00fd Donbas spole\u010dn\u011b se Z\u00e1poro\u017eskou a\u00a0Chersonskou oblast\u00ed nez\u00e1konn\u011b anektovali v\u00a0z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2022, a\u00a0to po zfal\u0161ovan\u00fdch referendech. \u010casto konec v\u00e1lky podmi\u0148ovali pr\u00e1v\u011b t\u00edm, \u017ee se Ukrajinci st\u00e1hnou ze v\u0161ech t\u011bchto oblast\u00ed. Ani jednu z\u00a0nich v\u0161ak pln\u011b nekontroluj\u00ed. Ukrajina jak\u00e9koli \u00fazemn\u00ed \u00fastupky odm\u00edt\u00e1, a\u00a0to i\u00a0p\u0159es tlak Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, kter\u00e9 Kyjev nab\u00e1daj\u00ed, aby se Donbasu vzdal.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"ISW nejprve shrnulo rusk\u00e9 \u00fazemn\u00ed ambice. Moskva si toti\u017e st\u00e1le n\u00e1rokuje cel\u00fd Donbas. Dal\u0161\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed podmi\u0148uje t\u00edm,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":85705,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[2703,2732,2541,2540,61,54,110,56,53,52,2702],"class_list":{"0":"post-85704","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-svet","8":"tag-cherson","9":"tag-donbas","10":"tag-donecka-oblast","11":"tag-luhanska-oblast","12":"tag-rusko","13":"tag-svet","14":"tag-ukrajina","15":"tag-valka-rusko-ukrajina","16":"tag-world","17":"tag-world-news","18":"tag-zaporozska-oblast"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116573881402546644","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85704","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=85704"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85704\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/85705"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=85704"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=85704"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=85704"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}