Hned na \u00favod si vyjasn\u011bme terminologii: tento text se zam\u011b\u0159uje na pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed dron\u016f pro d\u00e1lkov\u00e9 bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed a\u00a0strategick\u00e9 \u00fadery\u00a0\u2013 tedy na discipl\u00ednu, kterou do \u0161irok\u00e9ho pov\u011bdom\u00ed protla\u010dila v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b a\u00a0\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 produkce. Ostatn\u00edm aspekt\u016fm dronov\u00e9ho v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed, jako je pr\u016fzkum, elektronick\u00fd boj \u010di taktick\u00e9 nasazen\u00ed na \u00farovni dru\u017estev, se budu v\u011bnovat v\u00a0budoucnu.<\/p>\n
Dne\u0161n\u00ed anal\u00fdza navazuje na m\u016fj d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, technicky n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nek<\/a> vych\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed z\u00a0n\u00e1zor\u016f sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho velitele francouzsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy. Na za\u010d\u00e1tek se v\u00e1m pokus\u00edm ud\u011blat rychl\u00e9 shrnut\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti p\u016fvodn\u00edho \u010dl\u00e1nku, kter\u00e1 se zab\u00fdv\u00e1 pr\u00e1v\u011b neefektivitou dron\u016f v\u00a0strategick\u00e9m bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n Kr\u00e1tce o\u00a0neefektivit\u011b dron\u016f<\/p>\n Za\u010dn\u011bme jednou z\u00a0nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch l\u017e\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho marketingu dron\u016f: m\u00fdtem o \u201ebombardov\u00e1n\u00edm za p\u00e1r korun\u201c. Drony typu Shahed-136 (v rusk\u00e9 licenci zn\u00e1m\u00e9 jako Geran-2) ve skute\u010dnosti nejsou tak levn\u00e9, jak se n\u00e1m sna\u017e\u00ed namluvit clickbaitov\u00e9 titulky. Pokud nahl\u00e9dnete do jak\u00e9hokoli seri\u00f3zn\u00edho zdroje, zjist\u00edte, \u017ee jejich re\u00e1ln\u00e1 cena se pohybuje mezi 100\u00a0a\u017e 200\u00a0tis\u00edci dolary.<\/p>\n Navzdory v\u0161em marketingov\u00fdm poh\u00e1dk\u00e1m jde st\u00e1le o\u00a0plnohodnotn\u00e9 vrtulov\u00e9 letadlo. A\u00a0vyrobit letadlo, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 n\u011bkam dolet\u011bt, zkr\u00e1tka stoj\u00ed t\u011bch p\u00e1r milion\u016f korun. Je to sice o\u00a0\u0159\u00e1d m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e u\u00a0sofistikovan\u00fdch z\u00e1padn\u00edch st\u0159el s\u00a0plochou dr\u00e1hou letu, ale rozhodn\u011b to nejsou ty \u201edrobn\u00e9\u201c, o\u00a0kter\u00fdch b\u00e1sn\u00ed technologi\u010dt\u00ed nad\u0161enci.<\/p>\n Z\u00e1rove\u0148 plat\u00ed, \u017ee dnes u\u017e nikdo\u00a0\u2013 s\u00a0v\u00fdjimkou Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie, kter\u00e1 st\u0159\u00edl\u00ed ze syst\u00e9m\u016f Patriot na v\u0161e, co se na nebi pohne\u00a0\u2013 nesest\u0159eluje drony pozemn\u00ed protivzdu\u0161nou obranou. Hlavn\u00edm \u201ekladivem na drony\u201c se staly laserem nav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00e9 rakety typu APKWS, GATR nebo FZ275\u00a0LGR.<\/p>\n Tyto st\u0159ely, odpalovan\u00e9 ze st\u00edha\u010dek \u010di bojov\u00fdch vrtuln\u00edk\u016f, stoj\u00ed zhruba 25\u00a0000\u00a0dolar\u016f za kus. Jeden stroj m\u016f\u017ee v\u00a0podv\u011bsech n\u00e9st a\u017e 152\u00a0t\u011bchto st\u0159el najednou. Vzhledem k\u00a0tomu, \u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed sklady disponuj\u00ed statis\u00edci kus\u016f t\u00e9to munice, mluvit o \u201eochromen\u00ed PVO\u201c kv\u016fli p\u00e1r \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm seka\u010dk\u00e1m na tr\u00e1vu je pon\u011bkud \u00fasm\u011bvn\u00e9.<\/p>\n Medi\u00e1ln\u011b ignorovan\u00e1 neefektivita v\u00a0Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu<\/p>\n Skute\u010dnou efektivitu (\u010di sp\u00ed\u0161e jej\u00ed absenci) n\u00e1zorn\u011b demonstrovaly \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky na Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty. Podle dostupn\u00fdch opera\u010dn\u00edch dat bylo na c\u00edle v\u00a0SAE vysl\u00e1no celkem 1\u00a0575\u00a0dron\u016f. Z\u00a0tohoto jich pln\u00fdch 1\u00a0485\u00a0bylo sest\u0159eleno d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e v\u016fbec stihlo naru\u0161it emir\u00e1tsk\u00fd vzdu\u0161n\u00fd prostor.<\/p>\n Z pouh\u00fdch dev\u00edti des\u00edtek stroj\u016f, kter\u00e9 pronikly p\u0159es vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed perimetr, prokazateln\u011b zas\u00e1hly c\u00edl jen dva: luxusn\u00ed hotel Fairmont The Palm v\u00a0Dubaji a\u00a0pr\u016fmyslovou z\u00f3nu ve Fujairah. V\u00fdsledek? P\u00e1r zran\u011bn\u00fdch civilist\u016f. Men\u0161\u00ed \u0161kody pak zp\u016fsobily trosky sest\u0159elen\u00fdch stroj\u016f.<\/p>\n Kdy\u017e si to spo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1me, vyjde n\u00e1m, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n pr\u00e1v\u011b sp\u00e1lil zhruba 315\u00a0milion\u016f dolar\u016f jen proto, aby lehce po\u0161kodil jeden hotelov\u00fd vchod a\u00a0donutil arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty vyst\u0159\u00edlet zlomek z\u00a0prakticky bezedn\u00fdch z\u00e1sob raket APKWS. Pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed: zkuste si p\u0159edstavit, v\u00a0jak\u00e9m stavu by se SAE nach\u00e1zely, kdyby na n\u011b n\u011bkdo za stejn\u00e9 pen\u00edze vyp\u00e1lil 315\u00a0st\u0159el Storm Shadow.<\/p>\n Hlavn\u00edm motorem t\u00e9to \u201edronov\u00e9 hysterie\u201c jsou nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed fanou\u0161kovsk\u00e9 port\u00e1ly, kter\u00e9 se sice stylizuj\u00ed do role odborn\u00fdch autorit, ale v\u00a0praxi \u010dten\u00e1\u0159e krm\u00ed barvit\u00fdmi vizemi o \u201edronov\u00e9 apokalypse\u201c. Tyto narativy pak nekriticky p\u0159eb\u00edraj\u00ed mainstreamov\u00e1 m\u00e9dia, kter\u00e1 maj\u00ed na technickou neinformovanost snad i\u00a0\u00fastavn\u00ed pr\u00e1vo.<\/p>\n Ostatn\u011b, schv\u00e1ln\u011b se zam\u011b\u0159te na report\u00e1\u017ee o\u00a0ztr\u00e1t\u00e1ch na americk\u00fdch z\u00e1kladn\u00e1ch v\u00a0Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu z\u00a0po\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2026.\u00a0Slovo \u201edron\u201c v\u00a0nich vyskytuje v\u017edycky. P\u0159itom pro\u010d? Opera\u010dn\u00ed rozbory potvrzuj\u00ed, \u017ee skoro ve\u0161kerou drahou americkou techniku v\u00a0Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu zni\u010dily poctiv\u00e9, konven\u010dn\u00ed balistick\u00e9 st\u0159ely<\/a>. Drony v\u00a0t\u011bchto \u00fatoc\u00edch v\u016fbec nefigurovaly.<\/p>\n Dron je mrtev, a\u0165 \u017eije OWE<\/p>\n Drony typu Shahed by sice teoreticky mohly naj\u00edt uplatn\u011bn\u00ed v\u00a0r\u00e1mci elektronick\u00e9ho boje\u00a0\u2013 ostatn\u011b pr\u00e1v\u011b k\u00a0tomuto \u00fa\u010delu byl v\u00a080.\u00a0letech vyvinut jejich n\u011bmeck\u00fd \u201ed\u011bde\u010dek\u201c, protiradarov\u00fd syst\u00e9m Dornier DAR. Realita je v\u0161ak ne\u00faprosn\u00e1: jakmile v\u00e1\u0161 protivn\u00edk disponuje funk\u010dn\u00edm letectvem s\u00a0modern\u00ed avionikou a\u00a0elektronick\u00fdmi syst\u00e9my, st\u00e1vaj\u00ed se tyto pomal\u00e9, bzu\u010d\u00edc\u00ed ter\u010de v\u00a0podstat\u011b jen cvi\u010dnou st\u0159elnic\u00ed. To je fakt, kter\u00fd si z\u00e1padn\u00ed \u0161t\u00e1by na\u0161t\u011bst\u00ed uv\u011bdomily velmi rychle.<\/p>\n Zat\u00edmco u\u00a0Ruska u\u017e nikoho ne\u0161okuje, \u017ee jeho \u201enejmodern\u011bj\u0161\u00ed\u201c st\u00edha\u010dky jsou technologicky zaseknut\u00e9 hluboko v\u00a0devades\u00e1t\u00fdch letech, u\u00a0zem\u011b, kter\u00e1 vyrobila v\u011bt\u0161inu na\u0161ich smartphon\u016f, si podobn\u00fd optimismus dovol\u00ed m\u00e1lokdo. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 zbran\u011b sice zat\u00edm v\u00a0ostr\u00e9m nasazen\u00ed nep\u0159edv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 hv\u011bzdn\u00e9 v\u00fdkony, ale \u010c\u00edna m\u00e1, na rozd\u00edl od Ruska, technologick\u00fd potenci\u00e1l. Z\u00e1pad se zkr\u00e1tka mus\u00ed p\u0159ipravit na realitu, ve kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed i\u00a0st\u00edha\u010dky protivn\u00edka funguj\u00edc\u00ed radary.<\/p>\n Fiasko pomal\u00fdch dron\u016f v\u00a0re\u00e1ln\u00fdch st\u0159etech vedlo k\u00a0rychl\u00e9mu p\u0159ezbrojen\u00ed v\u00a0terminologick\u00e9m arzen\u00e1lu. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed odborn\u00fd prostor i\u00a0nabl\u00fdskan\u00e9 haly zbrojn\u00edch veletrh\u016f za\u010dal ovl\u00e1dat nov\u00fd buzzword: One Way Effectors (OWE). V\u00fdrobci se sice prodejn\u00ed n\u00e1lepky \u201edron\u201c dr\u017e\u00ed jako kl\u00ed\u0161t\u011b, ale ve skute\u010dnosti jde jen o\u00a0vzletn\u00fd eufemismus pro levn\u00e9 st\u0159ely s\u00a0plochou dr\u00e1hou letu.<\/p>\n Filozofie OWE je na pap\u00ed\u0159e l\u00e1kav\u00e1. Tyto stroje maj\u00ed b\u00fdt dostate\u010dn\u011b v\u00fdkonn\u00e9 a\u00a0rychl\u00e9, aby je ne\u0161lo eliminovat \u201eza p\u00e1r korun\u201c protipozemn\u00ed munic\u00ed ze st\u00edha\u010dek, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 maj\u00ed z\u016fstat v\u00fdrazn\u011b levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e \u0161pi\u010dkov\u00e9 z\u00e1padn\u00ed rakety. Zde se ov\u0161em dost\u00e1v\u00e1me k\u00a0j\u00e1dru robl\u00e9mu, kter\u00fd jsem si pro vlastn\u00ed pot\u0159eby pojmenoval \u201eTomahawk paradox\u201c. Pop\u00ed\u0161u v\u00e1m ho v\u00a0osmi kroc\u00edch:<\/p>\n Za\u010dn\u011bte u z\u00e1kladn\u00edho Shahedu. Zjist\u00edte, \u017ee v\u00e1m jich drtiv\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina popad\u00e1 do pol\u00ed kv\u016fli primitivn\u00edmu elektronick\u00e9mu ru\u0161en\u00ed. \u0158e\u0161en\u00ed? Mus\u00edte p\u0159idat odolnou GPS s vojensk\u00fdm k\u00f3dov\u00e1n\u00edm (nap\u0159. standard M-Code), co\u017e je prvn\u00ed z\u00e1\u0159ez do rozpo\u010dtu.Dron je tak pomal\u00fd, \u017ee nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 letectvo m\u00e1 \u010das v klidu dop\u00edt k\u00e1vu, vzl\u00e9tnout a v\u0161echny va\u0161e st\u0159ely sest\u0159elit je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed hranicemi. Mus\u00edte tedy upgradovat na turbovrtulov\u00fd nebo levn\u00fd proudov\u00fd motor.Nyn\u00ed u\u017e jsou drony p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 drah\u00e9 na to, aby byly jen snadn\u00fdm cvi\u010dn\u00fdm c\u00edlem pro levn\u00e9 rakety APKWS za p\u00e1r tis\u00edc dolar\u016f, mus\u00edte jim dodat skute\u010dnou rychlost. Instalujete tedy standardn\u00ed proudov\u00fd motor, aby rychlost\u00ed alespo\u0148 dorovnaly ty st\u00edha\u010dky.U takto drah\u00fdch dron\u016f, si u\u017e nem\u016f\u017eete dovolit, aby dv\u011b t\u0159etiny minuly c\u00edl. P\u0159id\u00e1te tedy vysp\u011bl\u00e9 koncov\u00e9 senzory \u2013 infra\u010derven\u00e9 \u010didlo nebo aktivn\u00ed radarovou hlavici.Proto\u017ee nechcete o tuhle drahou hra\u010dku p\u0159ij\u00edt kv\u016fli jedn\u00e9 mikrovlnn\u00e9 zbrani nebo pokro\u010dil\u00e9mu ru\u0161en\u00ed, mus\u00edte nahradit b\u011b\u017enou elektroniku drah\u00fdmi, radia\u010dn\u011b a elektronicky st\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdmi vojensk\u00fdmi \u010dipy.T\u00edm jsou u\u017e drony p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 drah\u00e9 na to, aby se vyplatilo nechat je nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 st\u00edha\u010dky sest\u0159elovat st\u0159elami AMRAAM, odpalovan\u00fdmi z d\u00e1lky. \u0158e\u0161en\u00ed? Po\u0161lete dron do extr\u00e9mn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00fdch v\u00fd\u0161ek, co\u017e vy\u017eaduje instalaci p\u0159esn\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho laserov\u00e9ho v\u00fd\u0161kom\u011bru.Kdy\u017e u\u017e ta st\u0159ela stoj\u00ed tolik, byla by hloupost nep\u0159idat prvky radarov\u00e9ho stealth a z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00ed inerci\u00e1ln\u00ed navigaci pro spolupr\u00e1ci s ostatn\u00edmi senzory.Gratuluji! Pr\u00e1v\u011b jsme znovu navrhli st\u0159elu BGM-109 Tomahawk.Testovat je rad\u0161i nebudeme<\/p>\n Z\u00e1padn\u00ed zbrojn\u00ed trh je v\u00a0sou\u010dasnosti zaplaven projekty OWE, kter\u00e9 se st\u0159\u00eddav\u011b maskuj\u00ed za drony, \u201echytr\u00e9 efektory\u201c, \u201eautonomn\u00ed leteck\u00e9 nosi\u010de\u201c nebo jin\u00e9 marketingov\u00e9 novotvary. Tyto zbran\u011b v\u0161ak \u010del\u00ed rostouc\u00ed vln\u011b kontroverz\u00ed, pramen\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm z\u00a0faktu, \u017ee je vyv\u00edjej\u00ed ambici\u00f3zn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 start-upy. Tento model, tolik oslavovan\u00fd v\u00a0Silicon Valley, s\u00a0sebou v\u00a0obrann\u00e9m pr\u016fmyslu nese dva fat\u00e1ln\u00ed probl\u00e9my.<\/p>\n T\u00edm prvn\u00edm je naprost\u00e1 netransparentnost skute\u010dn\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f. V\u00a0r\u00e1mci prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edho programu FAMM (Future Affordable Mass Munitions), zast\u0159e\u0161en\u00e9ho agenturou DIU, nab\u00edzej\u00ed tyto start-upy Pentagonu lehk\u00e9 st\u0159ely s\u00a0plochou dr\u00e1hou letu za l\u00e1kav\u00fdch 350\u00a0000\u00a0dolar\u016f.<\/p>\n Zn\u00ed to skv\u011ble, dokud nenahl\u00e9dnete do \u00fa\u010detn\u00edch knih. V\u011bt\u0161ina t\u011bchto firem aktu\u00e1ln\u011b p\u00e1l\u00ed miliardy dolar\u016f rizikov\u00e9ho kapit\u00e1lu a\u00a0nikdo\u00a0\u2013 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ani jejich vlastn\u00ed management\u00a0\u2013 netu\u0161\u00ed, kolik bude st\u00e1t s\u00e9riov\u00e1 v\u00fdroba jednoho kusu OWE v\u00a0okam\u017eiku, kdy vyschne dota\u010dn\u00ed bublina.<\/p>\n Druh\u00fdm a\u00a0podstatn\u011b z\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00edm probl\u00e9mem je prost\u00fd fakt, \u017ee nikdo netu\u0161\u00ed, zda by tyto zbran\u011b v\u00a0re\u00e1ln\u00e9m boji v\u016fbec fungovaly. Vojensk\u00e9 start-upy se nez\u00e1visl\u00e9mu testov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fa\u0159adu DOT&E (Director, Operational Test and Evaluation) dosud \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b vyh\u00fdbaly pomoc\u00ed nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch pr\u00e1vn\u00edch kli\u010dek a\u00a0lobbingu. Kdy\u017e u\u017e v\u0161ak musel t\u011bmito testy proj\u00edt nap\u0159\u00edklad syst\u00e9m ALTIUS od ambici\u00f3zn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti Anduril Industries, skon\u010dilo to s\u00e9ri\u00ed bizarn\u00edch technick\u00fdch selh\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e1 v\u00a0Pentagonu vyvolala zna\u010dn\u00e9 rozpaky.<\/p>\n Trumpova administrativa se k\u00a0tomuto \u201enaru\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed inovac\u00ed\u201c postavila s\u00a0lehkost\u00ed sob\u011b vlastn\u00ed. Ministr obrany Pete Hegseth jednodu\u0161e zak\u00e1zal \u00fa\u0159adu DOT&E prov\u00e1d\u011bt fyzick\u00e9 testy<\/a>. Nov\u011b mus\u00ed kontrolo\u0159i slovo od slova v\u011b\u0159it v\u0161emu, co jim v\u00fdrobci \u0159eknou. V\u00a0praxi to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee re\u00e1lnou funk\u010dnost st\u0159el u\u017e nikdo nez\u00e1visle neov\u011b\u0159uje. Postavit n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost na tom, \u017ee technologick\u00e9 start-upy mluv\u00ed pravdu, je opravdu zaj\u00edmav\u00fd pl\u00e1n.<\/p>\n Kdy\u017e levn\u011b nen\u00ed levn\u00e9<\/p>\n Zde se dost\u00e1v\u00e1me k\u00a0z\u00e1sadn\u00edmu matematick\u00e9mu probl\u00e9mu, kter\u00fd zast\u00e1nci levn\u00fdch zbran\u00ed ok\u00e1zale ignoruj\u00ed. Uva\u017eujme modelovou situaci: na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b stoj\u00ed \u0161pi\u010dkov\u00e1 st\u0159ela AGM-158B JASSM-ER v\u00a0cen\u011b 1,1\u00a0milionu dolar\u016f s\u00a099% pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed pr\u016fniku nep\u0159\u00e1telskou PVO. Proti n\u00ed postav\u00edme start-upov\u00fd Barracuda-M 500\u00a0od spole\u010dnosti Anduril, u\u00a0kter\u00e9ho bude pravd\u011bpodobnost \u00fasp\u011bchu t\u0159eba 50\u00a0%.<\/p>\n Abychom u \u201elevn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed\u201c varianty dos\u00e1hli stejn\u00e9, tedy 99% jistoty zni\u010den\u00ed c\u00edle, museli bychom jich na jeden \u00fakol vypl\u00fdtvat hned sedm. St\u0159ela za t\u0159etinu ceny, kter\u00e9 ov\u0161em pot\u0159ebujete sedm kus\u016f k\u00a0nahrazen\u00ed jednoho origin\u00e1lu, u\u017e sama o\u00a0sob\u011b nezn\u00ed jako zrovna geni\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd tah.<\/p>\n Tento v\u00fdpo\u010det nav\u00edc plat\u00ed pouze v\u00a0ide\u00e1ln\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b, kde selh\u00e1n\u00ed jednotliv\u00fdch st\u0159el jsou na sob\u011b statisticky nez\u00e1visl\u00e1. Jen\u017ee boji\u0161t\u011b nen\u00ed hod kostkou v\u00a0kasinu. Pokud proti prvn\u00ed st\u0159ele Barracuda zafunguje \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 elektronick\u00e9 ru\u0161en\u00ed s\u00a050% \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nost\u00ed, s\u00a0nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed oslep\u00ed i\u00a0v\u0161ech zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch \u0161est st\u0159el v\u00a0salv\u011b. Pokud m\u00e1 zbra\u0148 syst\u00e9movou slabinu, jej\u00edm prost\u00fdm namno\u017een\u00edm probl\u00e9m nevy\u0159e\u0161\u00edte\u00a0\u2013 pouze nep\u0159\u00edteli usnadn\u00edte pr\u00e1ci.<\/p>\n