{"id":86278,"date":"2026-05-15T08:51:14","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T08:51:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/86278\/"},"modified":"2026-05-15T08:51:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-15T08:51:14","slug":"proc-nyni-putin-mluvi-o-konci-valky-kreml-resi-unavu-rusu-i-potize-na-fronte","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/86278\/","title":{"rendered":"Pro\u010d nyn\u00ed Putin mluv\u00ed o\u00a0konci v\u00e1lky? Kreml \u0159e\u0161\u00ed \u00fanavu Rus\u016f i\u00a0pot\u00ed\u017ee na front\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kdy\u017e rusk\u00fd prezident Vladimir Putin p\u0159ed t\u00fddnem b\u011bhem oslav Dne v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed nazna\u010dil mo\u017enost konce v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b, p\u016fsobilo to jako ne\u010dekan\u00fd posun. \u0160lo ostatn\u011b o\u00a0prvn\u00ed takov\u00e9 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed z\u00a0jeho strany za posledn\u00ed roky.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti projevu ale nazna\u010dily sp\u00ed\u0161e pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed dlouhodob\u00e9ho postoje Kremlu. Putin toti\u017e tak\u00e9 pronesl, \u017ee Rusko nakonec ve v\u00e1lce zv\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed a\u00a0\u017ee proti n\u011bmu broj\u00ed cel\u00e1 Severoatlantick\u00e1 aliance. A\u00a0nenazna\u010dil \u017e\u00e1dnou ochotu k\u00a0\u00fastupk\u016fm.<\/p>\n

Analytici osloven\u00ed Seznam Zpr\u00e1vami upozor\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee za novou r\u00e9torikou nen\u00ed nutn\u011b ochota ke kompromisu, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e kombinace dom\u00e1c\u00edch i\u00a0strategick\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f.<\/p>\n

\u201eNejde o\u00a0z\u00e1sadn\u00ed zm\u011bnu rusk\u00e9 pozice. Kreml d\u00e1l opakuje stejn\u00e9 podm\u00ednky pro ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky, v\u010detn\u011b \u00fazemn\u00edch po\u017eadavk\u016f v\u016f\u010di Ukrajin\u011b. V\u00a0kontextu rostouc\u00ed \u00fanavy spole\u010dnosti z\u00a0v\u00e1lky a\u00a0bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00edch se parlamentn\u00edch voleb je tahle r\u00e9torika sp\u00ed\u0161 snahou uklidnit ve\u0159ejnost a\u00a0vyhnout se politicky riskantn\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed mobilizaci,\u201c m\u00edn\u00ed analytik Anton Barba\u0161in, spoluzakladatel rusk\u00e9ho exilov\u00e9ho \u010dasopisu Riddle Russia.<\/p>\n

S t\u00edm souhlas\u00ed i\u00a0expert na Rusko p\u016fsob\u00edc\u00ed v\u00a0think tanku Chatham House Nikolaj Petrov. \u201ePutinova slova podle m\u011b neznamenaj\u00ed, \u017ee by byl p\u0159ipraven v\u00e1lku okam\u017eit\u011b ukon\u010dit, zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 kdy\u017e v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee Ukrajina je moment\u00e1ln\u011b ve slab\u0161\u00ed pozici ne\u017e Rusko. V\u00a0Kremlu ale zjevn\u011b existuje i\u00a0sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, jak rusk\u00e9 ve\u0159ejnosti komunikovat konec v\u00e1lky bez jednozna\u010dn\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed,\u201c mysl\u00ed si.<\/p>\n

\u201eJe mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee Putin po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 bu\u010f s\u00a0dobyt\u00edm zbytku Don\u011bck\u00e9 oblasti a\u00a0n\u00e1sledn\u00fdm vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm spln\u011bn\u00ed sv\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f, nebo s\u00a0\u0161ir\u0161\u00ed geopolitickou dohodou, z\u00a0n\u00ed\u017e by mohl v\u00a0ot\u00e1zce Ukrajiny n\u011bco z\u00edskat,\u201c dod\u00e1v\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Kde nyn\u00ed stoj\u00ed Putin<\/p>\n

Dojem, \u017ee se v\u00a0Rusku \u201enic ned\u011bje\u201c a\u00a0\u017ee jde v\u0161echno podle pl\u00e1nu, p\u0159itom nenahlod\u00e1v\u00e1 jen okle\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159ehl\u00eddky u\u00a0kremelsk\u00fdch zd\u00ed. Pozoruhodn\u00fd je tak\u00e9 v\u00fdvoj ekonomiky, kdy se hrub\u00fd dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkt Ruska v\u00a0leto\u0161n\u00edm prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed podle p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u016f tamn\u00edho ministerstva hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017eil<\/a> o\u00a00,3\u00a0procenta, co\u017e by byl prvn\u00ed pokles od po\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2023.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/a>V\u00e1lka za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 dopadat i\u00a0na b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 Rusy<\/p>\n

Pro mnoho Rus\u016f u\u017e se v\u00e1lka nezd\u00e1 tak vzd\u00e1len\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem jako doposud. Omezov\u00e1n\u00ed internetu i\u00a0zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed potravin se propsaly do ka\u017edodenn\u00edho fungov\u00e1n\u00ed spole\u010dnosti, kter\u00e9 z\u00a0vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u016fsob\u00ed jako nem\u011bnn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Podle Barba\u0161ina ov\u0161em dostupn\u00e9 pr\u016fzkumy ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee si v\u011bt\u0161ina Rus\u016f p\u0159eje, aby konflikt na Ukrajin\u011b skon\u010dil. D\u016fvod je prost\u00fd: po v\u00edce ne\u017e \u010dty\u0159ech letech u\u017e se re\u017eimu neda\u0159\u00ed udr\u017eovat dojem toho, \u017ee se rusk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti net\u00fdk\u00e1.<\/p>\n

\u201eV\u00e1lka u\u017e nen\u00ed jen vzd\u00e1lenou realitou, ale st\u00e1le v\u00edc se prom\u00edt\u00e1 do ekonomiky i\u00a0ka\u017edodenn\u00edho \u017eivota. N\u011bkter\u00e9 regiony u\u017e poci\u0165uj\u00ed dopady poklesu exportu a\u00a0hroz\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00a0budoucnu budou \u010delit propou\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed a\u00a0soci\u00e1ln\u00edm probl\u00e9m\u016fm. I\u00a0proto re\u017eim buduje n\u00e1stroje, kter\u00e9 mu umo\u017en\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 lok\u00e1ln\u00ed protesty rychle izolovat a\u00a0potla\u010dit,\u201c poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b blokov\u00e1n\u00ed internetu se stalo hlavn\u00edm probl\u00e9mem, kter\u00fd v\u00a0rusk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 znepokojen\u00ed. Rusov\u00e9 se kv\u016fli tomu dokonce sch\u00e1zeli k\u00a0podpisu petic\u00ed, co\u017e se v\u00a0posledn\u00edch \u010dty\u0159ech letech stalo vzhledem k\u00a0rostouc\u00edm repres\u00edm nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdm.<\/p>\n

Podle pr\u016fzkum\u016f z\u00e1rove\u0148 klesla popularita rusk\u00e9ho prezidenta. Nyn\u00ed ho podporuje nejm\u00e9n\u011b lid\u00ed od chv\u00edle, co na podzim roku 2022\u00a0vyhl\u00e1sil \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dnou mobilizaci.\u00a0D\u011bje se tak nav\u00edc jen p\u00e1r m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f p\u0159ed parlamentn\u00edmi volbami. A\u00a0p\u0159esto\u017ee se ned\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee by byly svobodn\u00e9 a\u00a0v\u00fdsledky opravdu odpov\u00eddaly situaci lid\u00ed, bude pro re\u017eim z\u00e1sadn\u00ed uk\u00e1zat, \u017ee voli\u010dsk\u00e1 podpora Jednotn\u00e9ho Ruska je nad\u00e1le pevn\u00e1.<\/p>\n

M\u00edsto protest\u016f adaptace<\/p>\n

\u017de se nespokojenost hromad\u00ed, popisuje tak\u00e9 Petrov. \u201eSt\u00e1le v\u00edce region\u016f poci\u0165uje dopady dronov\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f, probl\u00e9my s\u00a0leteckou dopravou i\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed omezen\u00ed spojen\u00e1 s\u00a0v\u00e1lkou, zat\u00edmco z\u00e1sahy st\u00e1tu do internetu a\u00a0digit\u00e1ln\u00edch slu\u017eeb z\u00e1rove\u0148 naru\u0161uj\u00ed ka\u017edodenn\u00ed komfort, na kter\u00fd si lid\u00e9 v\u00a0minul\u00fdch letech zvykli,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Podle n\u011bj ale nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 o\u010dek\u00e1vat \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed p\u0159elom, kter\u00fd by vze\u0161el od b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch Rus\u016f. Jak ji\u017e bylo zm\u00edn\u011bno v\u00fd\u0161e, represe se v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech v\u00fdznamn\u011b zp\u0159\u00edsnily a\u00a0jak\u00fdkoliv projev nesouhlasu s\u00a0re\u017eimem je tvrd\u011b trestan\u00fd. Stejn\u011b tak lid\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed se ve\u0159ejn\u011b stav\u011bli proti krok\u016fm Kremlu, u\u017e ze zem\u011b uprchli a\u00a0funguj\u00ed ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u201eFrustrace ve spole\u010dnosti je podle m\u011b re\u00e1ln\u00e1, ale neznamen\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 z\u00e1sadn\u00ed politick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky, proto\u017ee rusk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost je dnes v\u00fdrazn\u011b pasivn\u00ed a\u00a0atomizovan\u00e1. Lid\u00e9 nejsou spokojen\u00ed s\u00a0t\u00edm, co se d\u011bje, ale neznamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee jsou p\u0159ipraveni protestovat nebo po\u017eadovat zm\u011bnu chov\u00e1n\u00ed re\u017eimu. Sp\u00ed\u0161 se znovu adaptuj\u00ed na nov\u00e9 podm\u00ednky,\u201c dod\u00e1v\u00e1 expert, kter\u00fd napsal o\u00a0chov\u00e1n\u00ed elit i\u00a0rusk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti n\u011bkolik knih.<\/p>\n

Kreml podle n\u011bj nepot\u0159ebuje nad\u0161enou spole\u010dnost, sta\u010d\u00ed mu takov\u00e1, kter\u00e1 je unaven\u00e1, ale kontrolovan\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Foto: Reuters<\/p>\n

Na leto\u0161n\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 p\u0159ehl\u00eddce v\u00a0Moskv\u011b chyb\u011bla vojensk\u00e1 technika.<\/p>\n

Pro Rusko by ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky nyn\u00ed mohlo d\u00e1vat smysl<\/p>\n

Dom\u00e1c\u00ed \u00fanava z\u00a0v\u00e1lky p\u0159itom nen\u00ed jedin\u00fdm faktorem. Prom\u011b\u0148uje se i\u00a0situace na front\u011b, kter\u00e1 u\u017e Moskv\u011b neposkytuje tak jednozna\u010dn\u00fd pocit postupn\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed jako v\u00a0p\u0159edchoz\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch.<\/p>\n

Arm\u00e1da u\u017e nedosahuje takov\u00fdch \u00fasp\u011bch\u016f, kter\u00e9 by Moskv\u011b d\u00e1valy nad\u011bji na v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pr\u016flom. Po ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 protiofenziv\u011b v\u00a0l\u00e9t\u011b 2023\u00a0Rusov\u00e9 postupn\u011b dob\u00fdvali ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed – i\u00a0kdy\u017e pomalu a\u00a0s velk\u00fdmi ztr\u00e1tami. Tehdy panoval dojem, \u017ee Ukrajina pomalu, ale nevyhnuteln\u011b prohr\u00e1v\u00e1. To se ale zm\u011bnilo.<\/p>\n

Podle americk\u00e9ho Institutu pro studium v\u00e1lky (ISW) Rusko v\u00a0dubnu ztratilo<\/a> kontrolu nad 119\u00a0kilometry \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edmi na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/p>\n

Od srpna 2024 (kdy Ukrajinci p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b vpadli do rusk\u00e9 Kursk\u00e9 oblasti) to je poprv\u00e9, co Rusko utrp\u011blo \u010distou ztr\u00e1tu \u00fazem\u00ed. Ani v\u00a0b\u0159eznu nebo \u00fanoru nedos\u00e1hly rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly v\u011bt\u0161\u00edch zisk\u016f. Pomal\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Moskvy se podle den\u00edku The Guardian u\u017e nezd\u00e1<\/a> tak jist\u00e9.<\/p>\n

V kombinaci s\u00a0vysok\u00fdmi ztr\u00e1tami a\u00a0sl\u00e1bnouc\u00edm tempem \u00fazemn\u00edch zisk\u016f Rusko \u010del\u00ed ot\u00e1zce, jak dlouho bude arm\u00e1da schopn\u00e1 udr\u017eet sou\u010dasn\u00fd model v\u00e1lky, ani\u017e by p\u0159istoupila k\u00a0z\u00e1sadn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm zm\u011bn\u00e1m.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Za\u010d\u00e1tkem kv\u011btna zve\u0159ejnila<\/a> jednotka ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil aktualizovan\u00fd odhad ztr\u00e1t mezi rusk\u00fdmi voj\u00e1ky. Ty m\u011bly za\u010d\u00edt p\u0159evy\u0161ovat tempo n\u00e1boru dobrovoln\u00edk\u016f do rusk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil.<\/p>\n

Od lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho prosince do leto\u0161n\u00edho dubna bylo do rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy naverbov\u00e1no v\u00edce ne\u017e 148\u00a0tis\u00edc dobrovoln\u00edk\u016f, zat\u00edmco ztr\u00e1ty (po\u010det mrtv\u00fdch i\u00a0zran\u011bn\u00fdch) p\u0159es\u00e1hly ve stejn\u00e9m obdob\u00ed 156\u00a0tis\u00edc lid\u00ed.<\/p>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee tyto odhady nelze br\u00e1t s\u00a0absolutn\u00ed p\u0159esnost\u00ed, i\u00a0z rusk\u00fdch zdroj\u016f je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee snahy o\u00a0z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f prob\u00edhaj\u00ed i\u00a0na netradi\u010dn\u00edch m\u00edstech.<\/p>\n

Den\u00edk The New York Times pak ned\u00e1vno popsal<\/a>, jak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem Moskva rekruty nah\u00e1n\u00ed i\u00a0v Africe, ale i\u00a0v dal\u0161\u00edch \u010d\u00e1stech sv\u011bta. Stejn\u011b tak se u\u017e d\u0159\u00edve mluvilo o\u00a0tom, \u017ee Rusku doch\u00e1zej\u00ed m\u00edsta, kde by mohlo dal\u0161\u00ed mu\u017ee nab\u00edrat.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 nic \u00fapln\u011b nenasv\u011bd\u010duje tomu, \u017ee by Vladimir Putin cht\u011bl v\u00a0bl\u00edzk\u00e9 dob\u011b zah\u00e1jit druhou ve\u0159ejnou mobilizaci po soci\u00e1ln\u00edch nepokoj\u00edch zp\u016fsoben\u00fdch v\u00a0z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2022.\u00a0Ukon\u010dit v\u00e1lku za podm\u00ednek, kter\u00e9 by pro Moskvu byly pozitivn\u00ed, se tud\u00ed\u017e m\u016f\u017ee jevit jako cesta ven.<\/p>\n

P\u0159esto Kreml v\u00a0minulosti opakovan\u011b odm\u00edtal jak\u00e9koli sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky, kter\u00e9 by neodpov\u00eddaly jeho vlastn\u00edm podm\u00ednk\u00e1m. I\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fd konec konfliktu by nav\u00edc pro re\u017eim otev\u0159el nov\u00e9 vnitropolitick\u00e9 i\u00a0ekonomick\u00e9 probl\u00e9my.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Kdy\u017e rusk\u00fd prezident Vladimir Putin p\u0159ed t\u00fddnem b\u011bhem oslav Dne v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed nazna\u010dil mo\u017enost konce v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b, p\u016fsobilo…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":18327,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[55,61,54,56,166,53,52],"class_list":{"0":"post-86278","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-svet","8":"tag-mirova-jednani-o-ukrajine","9":"tag-rusko","10":"tag-svet","11":"tag-valka-rusko-ukrajina","12":"tag-vladimir-putin","13":"tag-world","14":"tag-world-news"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116577742728201112","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86278","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=86278"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86278\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18327"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=86278"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=86278"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=86278"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}