{"id":88208,"date":"2026-05-17T07:10:09","date_gmt":"2026-05-17T07:10:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/88208\/"},"modified":"2026-05-17T07:10:09","modified_gmt":"2026-05-17T07:10:09","slug":"cash-only-dluhy-i-inflace-rostou-kde-je-jestrab-michl-boji-se-babise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/88208\/","title":{"rendered":"Cash Only: Dluhy i\u00a0inflace rostou, kde je jest\u0159\u00e1b Michl? Boj\u00ed se Babi\u0161e?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u010ctete uk\u00e1zku z\u00a0newsletteru Cash Only, ve kter\u00e9m redakto\u0159i SZ Byznys ka\u017ed\u00fd p\u00e1tek komentuj\u00ed d\u011bn\u00ed v\u00a0\u010desk\u00e9m byznysu. Pokud v\u00e1s Cash Only zaujal, p\u0159ihlaste se k\u00a0odb\u011bru<\/a> newsletteru.<\/p>\n

Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka vydala v\u00a0uplynul\u00e9m t\u00fddnu pravidelnou jarn\u00ed v\u00e1rku aktualizovan\u00fdch soud\u016f o\u00a0tom, co se d\u011bje v\u00a0ekonomice. A\u00a0p\u0159i pohledu na n\u011b se skoro zd\u00e1, \u017ee nic.<\/p>\n

M\u016f\u017ee to b\u00fdt legitimn\u00ed taktika. Rad\u011bji nikoho nepla\u0161it, a\u0165 se lid\u00e9 ani firmy na rizika moc neupnou a\u00a0panick\u00fdm chov\u00e1n\u00edm nevyrob\u00ed inflaci sami. Ale vzhledem k\u00a0tomu, co se ve sv\u011bt\u011b odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 na trhu s\u00a0ropou a\u00a0doma se st\u00e1tn\u00ed kasou, by se nejmocn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ekonomick\u00e1 instituce v\u00a0zemi p\u0159ece jen ozvat mohla. Respektive jej\u00ed \u0161\u00e9f, nechce-li v\u00a0druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b mand\u00e1tu p\u0159ij\u00edt o\u00a0pracn\u011b budovanou image infla\u010dn\u00edho spasitele.<\/p>\n

V dne\u0161n\u00edm rozhovoru pro Seznam Zpr\u00e1vy<\/a> sice Ale\u0161 Michl mluv\u00ed o\u00a0tom, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka mus\u00ed b\u00fdt \u201ejest\u0159\u00e1bem nav\u017edy\u201c a\u00a0inflaci bude hl\u00eddat \u201evelmi p\u0159\u00edsn\u011b\u201c. Ale d\u00e1l u\u017e v\u00a0konkr\u00e9tnostech ani v\u00a0reakc\u00edch na aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u011bn\u00ed ne\u0161el. Na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku, kdy ceny nafty za\u010d\u00ednaly dvojkou a\u00a0inflace jedni\u010dkou, by to odpov\u00eddalo. Jen\u017ee te\u010f?<\/p>\n

Inflace je op\u011bt v pohybu. V dubnu povyrostla na 2,5 procenta (nejv\u00fd\u0161 od voleb) a mezi ekonomy je shoda, \u017ee do roka p\u016fjde a\u017e k trojce.D\u016fvody jsou zjevn\u00e9, uzav\u00edrka Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu trv\u00e1 u\u017e t\u0159et\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc. V\u00fdpadek dod\u00e1vek je velk\u00fd (sv\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v historii<\/a>), tak\u017ee cena mus\u00ed nahoru, aby odpadla i \u010d\u00e1st popt\u00e1vky. To je z\u00e1kon trhu.Ropa ovliv\u0148uje inflaci hodn\u011b. Sv\u011bt zat\u00edm \u017eije ze strategick\u00fdch rezerv a z tanker\u016f, vypraven\u00fdch je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou v \u00cdr\u00e1nu, to ale u\u017e nepotrv\u00e1 dlouho.Donald Trump zoufale pot\u0159ebuje situaci uklidnit, jinak kv\u016fli drah\u00e9mu benzinu p\u0159ijde v listopadu o v\u011bt\u0161inu v Kongresu<\/a>. Funk\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed ale po\u0159\u00e1d nikde.<\/p>\n

Do toho se otev\u00edr\u00e1 druh\u00e1 infla\u010dn\u00ed fronta doma. Nen\u00ed vid\u011bt hned, ale v\u00fdhledov\u011b m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt dalekos\u00e1hlej\u0161\u00ed dopady ne\u017e ropn\u00fd \u0161ok:<\/p>\n

Babi\u0161ova vl\u00e1da bez obalu p\u0159izn\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee chce v\u00edc utr\u00e1cet<\/a>. P\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok pl\u00e1nuje v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed schodek ne\u017e letos a v dal\u0161\u00edch letech to vzhledem k nabit\u00e9mu programu sotva p\u016fjde jinak.Sn\u011bmovna za t\u00edmto \u00fa\u010delem pr\u00e1v\u011b v t\u011bchto t\u00fddnech rozvol\u0148uje fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed pravidla. A brzy z vl\u00e1dy doraz\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed bod stejn\u00e9ho ra\u017een\u00ed, t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se demont\u00e1\u017ee penzijn\u00ed reformy<\/a>.N\u00e1rodn\u00ed rozpo\u010dtov\u00e1 rada, opozice i mnoz\u00ed ekonomov\u00e9 bij\u00ed na poplach, \u017ee ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 finance op\u011bt m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed do neudr\u017eiteln\u00e9ho stavu.Dokonce i \u010cNB \u2013 by\u0165 trochu mimod\u011bk, bez aktivn\u00edho koment\u00e1\u0159e, uprost\u0159ed mnoha \u010d\u00edsel v tabulk\u00e1ch \u2013 p\u0159i\u0161la v pond\u011bl\u00ed s odhadem, \u017ee tempo zadlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok vysko\u010d\u00ed nad doposud svat\u00e1 t\u0159i procenta HDP<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed p\u00e1kou \u010cNB jsou \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby. Zdra\u017een\u00ed pen\u011bz brzd\u00ed jejich ob\u011bh, tlum\u00ed \u00fav\u011brov\u00e1n\u00ed a\u00a0motivuje ke spo\u0159en\u00ed. Je to historicky prov\u011b\u0159en\u00fd n\u00e1stroj proti inflaci a\u00a0mezi ekonomy se te\u010f debatuje, kdy je \u010cNB zvedne.<\/p>\n

Nikdo ne\u010dek\u00e1, \u017ee hned, t\u00edm se Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv neotev\u0159e a\u00a0nafta nezlevn\u00ed. Pokud se ale kv\u016fli cen\u00e1m u\u00a0pump rozto\u010d\u00ed spir\u00e1la sekund\u00e1rn\u00edch efekt\u016f, kdy si k\u00a0cen\u00e1m p\u0159isad\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00fd sv\u00e9, od peka\u0159e po dopravce, pak u\u017e centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka zakro\u010dit mus\u00ed. Zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 kdy\u017e vl\u00e1da bude sou\u010dasn\u011b do ekonomiky pumpovat dal\u0161\u00ed stovky miliard na dluh.<\/p>\n

Je zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed, \u017ee nesly\u0161\u00edme od jinak ostra\u017eit\u00e9 banky \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 d\u016frazn\u00e9 upozorn\u011bn\u00ed. Sazby minul\u00fd t\u00fdden z\u016fstaly beze zm\u011bny a\u00a0dotazy na budouc\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed Michl odbyl p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fdm akcentem na to, \u017ee \u00faroky by mohly j\u00edt klidn\u011b i\u00a0dol\u016f, kdyby hrozila recese.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Do autu zahr\u00e1l i\u00a0ot\u00e1zky na rozpo\u010dtovou nek\u00e1ze\u0148, na tiskov\u00e9 konferenci i\u00a0u n\u00e1s v\u00a0rozhovoru. V\u00a0ofici\u00e1ln\u00edm z\u00e1pisu z\u00a0jedn\u00e1n\u00ed bankovn\u00ed rady minul\u00fd t\u00fdden je o\u00a0st\u00e1tn\u00edm dluhu jen jedna okrajov\u00e1 zm\u00ednka.<\/p>\n

D\u00e1 se dohledat, \u017ee v\u00a0druh\u00e9m bod\u011b \u010cNB m\u011b\u0159\u00ed dvoj\u00edm metrem. Za Fialovy vl\u00e1dy v\u00a0ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edch pravideln\u011b ozna\u010dovala expanzivn\u00ed fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed politiku za \u201ehlavn\u00ed proinfla\u010dn\u00ed riziko\u201c. P\u0159itom tehdy existovaly objektivn\u00ed t\u011b\u017ekosti (dozvuky covidu, energetick\u00e1 krize) a\u00a0snaha \u0161et\u0159it byla \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edm bodem vl\u00e1dn\u00edho programu.<\/p>\n

Te\u010f z\u00a0vl\u00e1dy zazn\u00edv\u00e1 opak. Inspirac\u00ed jsou okoln\u00ed zem\u011b se schodkem od \u010dty\u0159 do \u0161esti procent HDP<\/a> a\u00a0Michl je zticha. \u201eSni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed zadlu\u017een\u00ed, respektive sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed deficitu ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch financ\u00ed, je dobr\u00e1 v\u011bc v\u00a0boji proti inflaci. To podporujeme. Ostatn\u00ed nekomentujeme,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 a\u00a0d\u00e1l se nechce k\u00a0vl\u00e1dn\u00ed politice vyjad\u0159ovat. Ani k\u00a0\u010derstv\u00fdm v\u00fdzv\u00e1m Andreje Babi\u0161e, \u017ee by \u010cNB m\u011bla sazby naopak sn\u00ed\u017eit.<\/p>\n

Pro p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok v\u011b\u0161t\u00ed \u010cNB inflaci jen na \u00farovni 2,4\u00a0%. To vypad\u00e1 v\u00a0porovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0jin\u00fdmi progn\u00f3zami jako hodn\u011b optimistick\u00e9, mo\u017en\u00e1 a\u017e naivn\u00ed \u010d\u00edslo. Pr\u00e1v\u011b z\u00a0n\u011bj \u010cNB dovozuje, \u017ee na sazby nen\u00ed t\u0159eba sahat. By\u0165 t\u0159eba v\u00a0Evropsk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bance je letos mo\u017en\u00e1 zvednou i\u00a0dvakr\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Jedn\u00edm vysv\u011btlen\u00edm m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt u\u017e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e1 rafinovan\u00e1 zdr\u017eenlivost. \u010cNB v\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159ituhuje, ale nechce ve\u0159ejnost pla\u0161it a\u00a0pob\u00edzet k\u00a0infla\u010dn\u00edm o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm vlastn\u00ed zbrklost\u00ed a\u00a0nal\u00e9havost\u00ed.<\/p>\n

To m\u016f\u017ee do ur\u010dit\u00e9 m\u00edry zabrat. Rizika by se ale pojmenovat m\u011bla. Kdy\u017e u\u017e si bankovn\u00ed rada objedn\u00e1v\u00e1 u\u00a0sv\u00fdch expert\u016f r\u016fzn\u00e9 alternativn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, pro\u010d nevyrobit jeden o\u00a0tom, co s\u00a0ekonomikou ud\u011bl\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed utr\u00e1cen\u00ed? To je informace, na kterou m\u00e1 \u010cesko vzhledem k\u00a0velikosti sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho obratu rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 politiky n\u00e1rok.<\/p>\n

Druh\u00e9 vysv\u011btlen\u00ed je prost\u0161\u00ed, Michl m\u00e1 s\u00a0Babi\u0161em zkr\u00e1tka svou historii. B\u00fdval jeho poradcem i\u00a0pomocn\u00edkem v\u00a0kampani. Za pr\u00e1ci v\u00a0\u010cNB mo\u017en\u00e1 vd\u011b\u010d\u00ed Babi\u0161ov\u011b p\u0159\u00edmluv\u011b. Nikdy s\u00a0n\u00edm ne\u0161el do konfliktu. \u0160kodit vl\u00e1d\u011b ostrou kritikou rozpo\u010dtu nebo zved\u00e1n\u00edm sazeb (tedy zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm hypot\u00e9k i\u00a0st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhu) by te\u010f vy\u017eadovalo novou \u00farove\u0148 autonomie a\u00a0odolnosti.<\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 ji Michl\u00a0\u2013 i\u00a0s medail\u00ed za nejlep\u0161\u00edho guvern\u00e9ra sv\u011bta\u00a0\u2013 v\u016f\u010di star\u00fdm zn\u00e1m\u00fdm teprve hled\u00e1. Uvid\u00edme na dal\u0161\u00edch jedn\u00e1n\u00edch bankovn\u00ed rady, p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed je na programu 18.\u00a0\u010dervna.<\/p>\n

Zaj\u00edmaj\u00ed v\u00e1s akciov\u00e9 trhy, energetika nebo pl\u00e1ny \u010desk\u00fdch podnikatel\u016f? P\u0159ihlaste se k\u00a0odb\u011bru Cash Only<\/a> a\u00a0kompletn\u00ed newsletter budete ka\u017ed\u00fd p\u00e1tek dost\u00e1vat do sv\u00e9 schr\u00e1nky.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u010ctete uk\u00e1zku z\u00a0newsletteru Cash Only, ve kter\u00e9m redakto\u0159i SZ Byznys ka\u017ed\u00fd p\u00e1tek komentuj\u00ed d\u011bn\u00ed v\u00a0\u010desk\u00e9m byznysu. Pokud v\u00e1s…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":88209,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[10],"tags":[13106,266,3243,8822,2165,17,21,686,16,3502,18,19,22,684,20],"class_list":["post-88208","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-zpravy","tag-ales-michl","tag-andrej-babis","tag-cash-only","tag-cena-ropy","tag-ceska-narodni-banka-cnb","tag-headlines","tag-hlavni-udalosti","tag-inflace","tag-news","tag-statni-rozpocet","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-udalosti-dne","tag-urokova-sazba","tag-zpravy"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116588670156055966","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88208","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=88208"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88208\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/88209"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=88208"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=88208"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=88208"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}