{"id":8847,"date":"2026-02-27T06:37:07","date_gmt":"2026-02-27T06:37:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/8847\/"},"modified":"2026-02-27T06:37:07","modified_gmt":"2026-02-27T06:37:07","slug":"dgap-o-iluzi-evropske-obranne-soudrznosti-sever-mobilizuje-jih-vaha-czdefence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/8847\/","title":{"rendered":"DGAP o iluzi evropsk\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 soudr\u017enosti: Sever mobilizuje, jih v\u00e1h\u00e1 | CZDEFENCE"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Plnohodnotn\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 invaze na\u00a0Ukrajinu si\u00a0vynutila z\u00e1sadn\u00ed p\u0159ehodnocen\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 obrany. Zat\u00edmco \u010dlensk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty EU\u00a0a NATO p\u0159isl\u00edbily vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed investice, hlub\u0161\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ci a\u00a0dlouhodobou podporu Kyjevu, praktick\u00e1 reakce byla nerovnom\u011brn\u00e1. Pobalt\u00ed, Polsko a\u00a0skandin\u00e1vsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty rychle pos\u00edlily odstra\u0161en\u00ed a\u00a0odolnost. Ji\u017en\u00ed a\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti st\u0159edn\u00ed Evropy postupovaly opatrn\u011bji. Tyto vl\u00e1dy zpochyb\u0148ovaly pot\u0159ebu dal\u0161\u00edho zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed obrann\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f (\u0160pan\u011blsko) nebo vyjad\u0159ovaly pochybnosti o\u00a0udr\u017eitelnosti dlouhodob\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 podpory Ukrajiny (Ma\u010farsko, Slovensko). Dal\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm N\u011bmecko, se\u00a0nach\u00e1zej\u00ed mezi t\u011bmito p\u00f3ly. Sd\u00edlej\u00ed sice vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pocit nal\u00e9havosti, av\u0161ak v\u00a0praktick\u00fdch kroc\u00edch nebyly tak rychl\u00e9 a\u00a0rozhodn\u00e9 jako st\u00e1ty severn\u00ed \u010di severov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropy.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/eu_nato.jpg\" rel=\"fancybox\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Foto: Plnohodnotn\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 invaze na\u00a0Ukrajinu si\u00a0vynutila z\u00e1sadn\u00ed p\u0159ehodnocen\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 obrany | NATO \/ Public domain\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/eu_nato.jpg\"\/><\/a>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nFoto: Plnohodnotn\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 invaze na\u00a0Ukrajinu si\u00a0vynutila z\u00e1sadn\u00ed p\u0159ehodnocen\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 obrany | NATO&#13;<\/p>\n<p>T\u011bmito rozd\u00edln\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edstupy se\u00a0ve sv\u00e9 ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 studii v\u011bnoval n\u011bmeck\u00fd think tank DGAP (Deutsche Gesellschaft f\u00fcr Ausw\u00e4rtige Politik). DGAP definoval p\u011bt prom\u011bnn\u00fdch, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vliv na\u00a0chov\u00e1n\u00ed evropsk\u00fdch vl\u00e1d z\u00a0hlediska obrany:<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n\tVn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed hrozby ze\u00a0strany Ruska.&#13;<br \/>\n\tMo\u017enost zv\u00fd\u0161it obrann\u00e9 v\u00fddaje bez vyvol\u00e1n\u00ed rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 krize.&#13;<br \/>\n\tHloubka a\u00a0\u0161\u00ed\u0159e ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 a\u00a0mezistranick\u00e9 podpory investic do\u00a0obrany.&#13;<br \/>\n\tM\u00edra, do\u00a0jak\u00e9 zem\u011b pova\u017euj\u00ed aktivn\u00ed politiku tvrd\u00e9 s\u00edly za\u00a0legitimn\u00ed.&#13;<br \/>\n\tS\u00edla integrace do\u00a0obrann\u00fdch struktur NATO a\u00a0EU.&#13;<\/p>\n<p>V\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9 prom\u011bnn\u00e9 (se \u0161k\u00e1lou 0-5, kde nula m\u00e1 nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed intenzitu a\u00a0p\u011btka nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed) n\u011bmeck\u00fd think tank n\u00e1sledn\u011b aplikoval na\u00a0t\u0159i p\u0159\u00edpadov\u00e9 studie. Na\u00a0p\u0159\u00edkladu Litvy, It\u00e1lie a\u00a0N\u011bmecka se\u00a0pokusil rozd\u011blit evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b do\u00a0skupin, je\u017e sd\u00edl\u00ed podobn\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed a\u00a0obrann\u00e9 priority.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.czdefence.cz\/clanek\/znovuvyzbrojeni-evropy-dle-bruselu-implementace-a-perspektivy\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/2994--eu.jpg\" alt=\"Znovuvyzbrojen\u00ed Evropy dle Bruselu: Implementace a\u00a0perspektivy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"aspect-ratio:254\/173;\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Pobaltsk\u00e1 perspektiva: Litva<\/p>\n<p>Pobaltsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty Litva, Loty\u0161sko a\u00a0Estonsko se\u00a0nach\u00e1zej\u00ed na\u00a0nejexponovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hranici NATO, soused\u00ed s\u00a0Ruskem a\u00a0B\u011bloruskem. Od\u00a0rusk\u00e9 invaze na\u00a0Ukrajinu v\u00a0roce 2022 urychlily obrann\u00e9 reformy: navy\u0161uj\u00ed rozpo\u010dty, znovu zavedly brannou povinnost a\u00a0rozv\u00edjej\u00ed modely tot\u00e1ln\u00ed obrany, kter\u00e9 propojuj\u00ed civiln\u00ed odolnost s\u00a0vojenskou p\u0159ipravenost\u00ed. Jejich bezpe\u010dnost stoj\u00ed na\u00a0relativn\u011b dob\u0159e rozvinut\u00fdch, av\u0161ak omezen\u00fdch n\u00e1rodn\u00edch obrann\u00fdch schopnostech a\u00a0na\u00a0kolektivn\u00edch z\u00e1ruk\u00e1ch NATO. S\u00a0obdobnou perspektivou se\u00a0v\u00a0jist\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e setk\u00e1me tak\u00e9 v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b skandin\u00e1vsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a\u00a0Polska.<\/p>\n<p>Pobaltsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty si\u00a0v\u0161ak z\u00e1rove\u0148 uv\u011bdomuj\u00ed riziko opu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, tedy obavu, \u017ee strategick\u00e9 p\u0159esm\u011brov\u00e1n\u00ed USA k\u00a0\u010c\u00edn\u011b nebo dom\u00e1c\u00ed izolacionismus m\u016f\u017ee oslabit transatlantickou solidaritu. Sou\u010dasn\u011b \u010del\u00ed hybridn\u00edm hrozb\u00e1m, od\u00a0kybernetick\u00fdch a\u00a0dezinforma\u010dn\u00edch operac\u00ed p\u0159es sabot\u00e1\u017e, instrumentalizovanou migraci a\u017e po\u00a0naru\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru drony nebo bal\u00f3ny. Navzdory omezen\u00e9 fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed kapacit\u011b jim spole\u010densk\u00fd konsenzus ohledn\u011b podpory obrany, rozhodn\u00e9 politick\u00e9 veden\u00ed a\u00a0podpora spojenc\u016f umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed udr\u017eovat ambici\u00f3zn\u00ed obrann\u00e9 z\u00e1vazky a\u00a0v\u011brohodn\u00e9 odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed postaven\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00e9 hrozby (hodnota: 5)<\/p>\n<p>Vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed hrozby v\u00a0pobaltsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch dosahuje nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b. Rusko zde nen\u00ed ch\u00e1p\u00e1no jako potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed riziko, ale jako bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed a\u00a0existen\u010dn\u00ed nebezpe\u010d\u00ed. Litevsk\u00e9 zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby popisuj\u00ed vztahy s\u00a0Ruskem jako \u201e\u0161edou z\u00f3nu mezi v\u00e1lkou a\u00a0m\u00edrem\u201c, charakterizovanou \u0161pion\u00e1\u017e\u00ed, sabot\u00e1\u017e\u00ed a\u00a0dezinformacemi s\u00a0c\u00edlem oslabit soudr\u017enost NATO a\u00a0d\u016fv\u011bru ve\u0159ejnosti. Vojensk\u00e9 uskupen\u00ed v\u00a0Kaliningradu z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm ohniskem nap\u011bt\u00ed, schopn\u00fdm naru\u0161it pohyb spojeneck\u00fdch sil. B\u011blorusko funguje jako prodlou\u017een\u00e1 ruka rusk\u00e9ho n\u00e1tlaku. Minsk usnad\u0148uje neleg\u00e1ln\u00ed migraci, zadr\u017euje ob\u010dany pobaltsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a\u00a0umo\u017e\u0148uje vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00e9ho vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru pro rusk\u00e9 operace.<\/p>\n<p>Rozpo\u010dtov\u00e1 flexibilita (hodnota: 2\u20133)<\/p>\n<p>Navzdory omezen\u00e9mu fisk\u00e1ln\u00edmu prostoru, dan\u00e9mu malou velikost\u00ed ekonomik a\u00a0omezenou schopnost\u00ed zadlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed, pat\u0159\u00ed pobaltsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty mezi nejodhodlan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed obrann\u00e9 investory v\u00a0EU. V\u00a0roce 2026 pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed historicky nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 obrann\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f: Estonsko m\u00e1 alokovat 5,1 % HDP, Loty\u0161sko 4,9 % a\u00a0Litva 5,38 %. Pobaltsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty jsou rovn\u011b\u017e v\u00fdznamn\u00fdmi poskytovateli vojensk\u00e9 pomoci Ukrajin\u011b, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e ka\u017ed\u00e1 z\u00a0nich se\u00a0zav\u00e1zala v\u011bnovat nejm\u00e9n\u011b 0,25 % HDP ro\u010dn\u011b. Tento z\u00e1vazek, jen\u017e je\u00a0\u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed jejich strategick\u00e9 identity, zvy\u0161uje tlak na\u00a0dom\u00e1c\u00ed zdroje a\u00a0m\u016f\u017ee do\u00a0budoucna prov\u011b\u0159it ochotu ve\u0159ejnosti, pokud by\u00a0se zd\u00e1lo, \u017ee jsou omezov\u00e1ny soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fddaje.<\/p>\n<p>Spole\u010densk\u00fd konsenzus (hodnota: 4)<\/p>\n<p>Nejist\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 prost\u0159ed\u00ed vedlo k\u00a0mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9mu souladu mezi vl\u00e1dami a\u00a0ob\u010dany v\u00a0ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch obrann\u00fdch priorit. Rusk\u00e1 hrozba je\u00a0vn\u00edm\u00e1na jako existen\u010dn\u00ed, co\u017e generuje dlouhodobou ve\u0159ejnou podporu NATO i\u00a0trval\u00fdm vojensk\u00fdm investic\u00edm. V\u00fdsledky pr\u016fzkum\u016f z\u00a0roku 2024 ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee 54\u00a0% Loty\u0161\u016f, 50\u00a0% Litevc\u016f a\u00a041\u00a0% Estonc\u016f se\u00a0domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee by\u00a0jejich zem\u011b m\u011bla na\u00a0obranu vyd\u00e1vat je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce. Solidarita s\u00a0Ukrajinou tento konsenzus d\u00e1le posiluje. Pobaltsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty pat\u0159\u00ed mezi nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 d\u00e1rce Ukrajin\u011b v\u00a0pom\u011bru k\u00a0HDP a\u00a0kombinuj\u00ed materi\u00e1ln\u00ed pomoc s\u00a0trvalou ve\u0159ejnou podporou.<\/p>\n<p>Strategick\u00e1 kultura (hodnota: 5)<\/p>\n<p>Pobaltsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty vykazuj\u00ed strategickou kulturu zalo\u017eenou na\u00a0realistick\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edstupu tvrd\u00e9 s\u00edly, z\u00e1vislosti na\u00a0Alianci a\u00a0proaktivn\u00edm politick\u00e9m veden\u00ed. Strategicky v\u0161echny t\u0159i zem\u011b zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed silnou p\u0159\u00edtomnost USA jako kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd pil\u00ed\u0159 odstra\u0161en\u00ed. \u010clenstv\u00ed v\u00a0NATO z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 z\u00e1kladn\u00edm kamenem t\u00e9to orientace, dopln\u011bn\u00fdm \u00fazk\u00fdmi vztahy s\u00a0USA a\u00a0viditeln\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvky do\u00a0spojeneck\u00fdch operac\u00ed. Mobilizace cel\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm instituc\u00ed, jako je\u00a0Litevsk\u00fd svaz st\u0159elc\u016f, Loty\u0161sk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed garda \u010di Estonsk\u00e1 obrann\u00e1 liga, tento p\u0159\u00edstup ukotvuje a\u00a0zapojuje ob\u010danskou participaci do\u00a0n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti.<\/p>\n<p>Institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed ukotven\u00ed a\u00a0alian\u010dn\u00ed vliv (hodnota: 5)<\/p>\n<p>Integrace pobaltsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f do\u00a0NATO a\u00a0EU\u00a0jim poskytuje institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed hloubku, kter\u00e1 zesiluje jejich vliv i\u00a0bezpe\u010dnost. Aliance je\u00a0vn\u00edm\u00e1na nejen jako obrann\u00e1 struktura, ale tak\u00e9 jako civiliza\u010dn\u00ed a\u00a0mor\u00e1ln\u00ed jistota. Pr\u016fzkumy potvrzuj\u00ed mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b vysokou d\u016fv\u011bru ve\u0159ejnosti: 77\u00a0% Litevc\u016f, 65\u00a0% Estonc\u016f a\u00a050\u00a0% Loty\u0161\u016f pova\u017euje NATO za\u00a0\u201evelmi d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9\u201c pro n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost. \u010cl\u00e1nek 5\u00a0p\u0159edstavuje kl\u00ed\u010dovou z\u00e1ruku proti p\u0159evaze rusk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e pobaltsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty z\u00e1rove\u0148 posiluj\u00ed svou p\u0159ipravenost aktivn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dast\u00ed v\u00a0mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch vojensk\u00fdch operac\u00edch.<\/p>\n<p>Ji\u017en\u00ed perspektiva: It\u00e1lie<\/p>\n<p>Tato \u010d\u00e1st se\u00a0zab\u00fdv\u00e1 ve\u0159ejnou podporou obrann\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f v\u00a0zem\u00edch ji\u017en\u00ed Evropy. Krom It\u00e1lie zohled\u0148uje v\u0161ak tak\u00e9 \u0160pan\u011blsko, Portugalsko a\u00a0\u0158ecko (n\u011bkter\u00e9 podobn\u00e9 znaky vykazuje rovn\u011b\u017e Francie). Navzdory sv\u00fdm individu\u00e1ln\u00edm charakteristik\u00e1m sd\u00edlej\u00ed tyto \u010dty\u0159i zem\u011b ur\u010dit\u00e9 kulturn\u00ed, soci\u00e1ln\u00ed a\u00a0bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed p\u0159edpoklady, kter\u00e9 je\u00a0odli\u0161uj\u00ed od\u00a0jejich severn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch spojenc\u016f v\u00a0EU\u00a0a NATO. To\u00a0je patrn\u00e9 zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0ot\u00e1zce obrann\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f a\u00a0podpory Ukrajiny, kter\u00e9 jsou komplikov\u00e1ny kombinac\u00ed vysok\u00e9ho ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho zadlu\u017een\u00ed, specifick\u00fdch volebn\u00edch tlak\u016f a\u00a0odli\u0161n\u00e9 geopolitick\u00e9 orientace.<\/p>\n<p>Vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00e9 hrozby (hodnota: 1\u20132)<\/p>\n<p>Ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0Pobalt\u00edm, Polskem a\u00a0skandin\u00e1vsk\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty vykazuj\u00ed zem\u011b ji\u017en\u00ed Evropy v\u00fdrazn\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b intenzivn\u00ed vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00e9 hrozby. Podle \u00fadaj\u016f Eurobarometru z\u00a0roku 2024 byl pod\u00edl respondent\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed pova\u017eovali v\u00e1lku na\u00a0Ukrajin\u011b za\u00a0hlavn\u00ed hrozbu pro EU, v\u00a0t\u011bchto zem\u00edch zna\u010dn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e evropsk\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011br (nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed hodnoty zaznamenaly \u0158ecko a\u00a0It\u00e1lie \u2013 17\u00a0%, respektive 23\u00a0%, oproti pr\u016fm\u011bru 31\u00a0%). Vzhledem ke\u00a0sv\u00e9 geografick\u00e9 poloze a\u00a0specifick\u00e9mu historick\u00e9mu a\u00a0politick\u00e9mu v\u00fdvoji sledovaly zem\u011b ji\u017en\u00ed Evropy tradi\u010dn\u011b zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00e9 c\u00edle a\u00a0z\u00e1jmy, kter\u00e9 se\u00a0nep\u0159ekr\u00fdvaj\u00ed s\u00a0prioritami st\u0159edn\u00ed \u010di severn\u00ed Evropy. \u0160pan\u011blsko a\u00a0Portugalsko jako d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed koloni\u00e1ln\u00ed mocnosti maj\u00ed sv\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy sp\u00ed\u0161e ji\u017en\u00edm a\u00a0z\u00e1padn\u00edm sm\u011brem. \u0158ecko se\u00a0z historick\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f a\u00a0kv\u016fli \u00fazemn\u00edm spor\u016fm souvisej\u00edc\u00edm se\u00a0Severn\u00edm Kyprem a\u00a0v\u00fdlu\u010dn\u00fdmi ekonomick\u00fdmi z\u00f3nami soust\u0159ed\u00ed na\u00a0v\u00fdchodn\u00ed St\u0159edomo\u0159\u00ed. Podobn\u011b It\u00e1lie tradi\u010dn\u011b sm\u011b\u0159uje svou pozornost k\u00a0severn\u00ed Africe, Bl\u00edzk\u00e9mu v\u00fdchodu a\u00a0Balk\u00e1nu, kter\u00e9 vn\u00edm\u00e1 jako v\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zdroj hrozeb v\u00a0souvislosti s\u00a0neleg\u00e1ln\u00ed migrac\u00ed, energetickou z\u00e1vislost\u00ed a\u00a0terorismem.<\/p>\n<p>Rozpo\u010dtov\u00e1 flexibilita (hodnota: 2)<\/p>\n<p>Zem\u011b ji\u017en\u00ed Evropy \u010del\u00ed dlouhodob\u00fdm makroekonomick\u00fdm omezen\u00edm (v\u010detn\u011b vysok\u00e9 nezam\u011bstnanosti), zna\u010dn\u00e9mu ve\u0159ejn\u00e9mu dluhu, region\u00e1ln\u00edm nerovnostem a\u00a0opakuj\u00edc\u00ed se\u00a0neefektivnosti ve\u00a0ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u00edch. Tyto makroekonomick\u00e9 z\u00e1klady spolu se\u00a0zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se\u00a0demografickou situac\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u011b ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed stanovov\u00e1n\u00ed priorit, zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0oblasti ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch soci\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u00fddaj\u016f. Obrann\u00e9 v\u00fddaje jsou \u010dasto vn\u00edm\u00e1ny jako druhotn\u00e9 \u010di dokonce nadbyte\u010dn\u00e9 ve\u00a0srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se\u00a0z\u00e1va\u017en\u00fdmi ekonomick\u00fdmi a\u00a0soci\u00e1ln\u00edmi probl\u00e9my.<\/p>\n<p>Spole\u010densk\u00fd konsenzus (hodnota: 2)<\/p>\n<p>Odli\u0161n\u00e9 vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00e9 hrozby a\u00a0v\u00fd\u0161e popsan\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd kontext zp\u016fsobuj\u00ed, \u017ee zem\u011b ji\u017en\u00ed Evropy jsou obecn\u011b mnohem m\u00e9n\u011b naklon\u011bny zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed vojensk\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f. Pr\u016fzkumy z\u00a0roku 2024 ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee pouze Portugalsko (50 %) dosahuje hodnot podobn\u00fdch pobaltsk\u00fdm zem\u00edm a\u00a0N\u011bmecku, zat\u00edmco ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed ve\u00a0\u0160pan\u011blsku (37 %), \u0158ecku (33 %) a\u00a0It\u00e1lii (31 %) je\u00a0v\u00fdrazn\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9. Podobn\u011b i\u00a0vojensk\u00e1 podpora Ukrajiny nach\u00e1z\u00ed podstatn\u011b men\u0161\u00ed podporu ne\u017e ve\u00a0zbytku Evropy. Skepticismus se\u00a0vztahuje tak\u00e9 na\u00a0mo\u017enost vysl\u00e1n\u00ed voj\u00e1k\u016f na\u00a0Ukrajinu v\u00a0r\u00e1mci m\u00edrov\u00e9 mise, co\u017e je\u00a0varianta, kterou v\u011bt\u0161ina jihoevropsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e vylu\u010duje.<\/p>\n<p>Strategick\u00e1 kultura (hodnota: 2\u20133)<\/p>\n<p>Postoje k\u00a0obrann\u00fdm v\u00fddaj\u016fm a\u00a0obrann\u00e9mu postoji jsou siln\u011b ovlivn\u011bny historick\u00fdmi a\u00a0kulturn\u00edmi ko\u0159eny, kter\u00e9 tyto zem\u011b formovaly ve\u00a020. stolet\u00ed. Podobn\u011b jako N\u011bmecko jihoevropsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty za\u017eily autorit\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 re\u017eimy, je\u017e zanechaly d\u011bdictv\u00ed skepse v\u016f\u010di vojensk\u00fdm ot\u00e1zk\u00e1m a\u00a0pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed tvrd\u00e9 s\u00edly. Demokratick\u00e9 transformace nav\u00edc pos\u00edlily antimilitaristick\u00e9 postoje, proto\u017ee v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 politick\u00e1 a\u00a0spole\u010densk\u00e1 hnut\u00ed (katolick\u00e1, socialistick\u00e1 \u010di eurokomunistick\u00e1) prosazovala internacionalismus a\u00a0humanitarismus sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e p\u0159\u00edstupy zalo\u017een\u00e9 na\u00a0n\u00e1rodn\u00edch z\u00e1jmech \u010di tvrd\u00e9 s\u00edle.<\/p>\n<p>Institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed ukotven\u00ed a\u00a0alian\u010dn\u00ed vliv (hodnota: 3)<\/p>\n<p>St\u00e1ty ji\u017en\u00ed Evropy jsou pevn\u011b zakotveny v\u00a0euroatlantick\u00e9m institucion\u00e1ln\u00edm r\u00e1mci. It\u00e1lie je\u00a0zakl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00edm \u010dlenem jak NATO, tak Evropsk\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho spole\u010denstv\u00ed, zat\u00edmco Portugalsko podepsalo Severoatlantickou smlouvu ji\u017e p\u0159i jej\u00edm vzniku. \u0160pan\u011blsko a\u00a0\u0158ecko vstoupily do\u00a0NATO pom\u011brn\u011b brzy a\u00a0spolu s\u00a0Portugalskem se\u00a0v 80. letech minul\u00e9ho stolet\u00ed, po\u00a0demokratick\u00fdch p\u0159echodech, zapojily do\u00a0evropsk\u00e9ho integra\u010dn\u00edho projektu. It\u00e1lie zauj\u00edm\u00e1 v\u00a0NATO obzvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 postaven\u00ed: host\u00ed americk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b v\u00a0r\u00e1mci alian\u010dn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu sd\u00edlen\u00ed jadern\u00fdch kapacit a\u00a0nach\u00e1z\u00ed se\u00a0zde n\u011bkolik kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch velitelstv\u00ed a\u00a0instituc\u00ed NATO.<\/p>\n<p>Navzdory dlouholet\u00e9mu \u010dlenstv\u00ed v\u0161ak role t\u011bchto zem\u00ed v\u00a0Alianci odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed v\u00fd\u0161e popsan\u00e1 omezen\u00ed. Antimilitaristick\u00e9 tradice a\u00a0omezen\u00e1 fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed kapacita je\u00a0(s v\u00fdjimkou \u0158ecka, vzhledem k\u00a0jeho rivalit\u011b s\u00a0Tureckem) \u0159ad\u00ed mezi st\u00e1ty s\u00a0nejni\u017e\u0161\u00edmi obrann\u00fdmi v\u00fddaji v\u00a0NATO. V\u00fdznamn\u00fd person\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek It\u00e1lie do\u00a0alian\u010dn\u00edch mis\u00ed pouze \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b kompenzuje jej\u00ed omezen\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed sd\u00edlen\u00ed z\u00e1t\u011b\u017ee. Odli\u0161n\u00e9 vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed hrozeb nav\u00edc do\u00a0ur\u010dit\u00e9 m\u00edry p\u0159isp\u00edv\u00e1 k\u00a0odstupu ji\u017en\u00ed Evropy od\u00a0bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch priorit ostatn\u00edch spojenc\u016f. Od\u00a0roku 2022 NATO up\u0159ednost\u0148uje posilov\u00e1n\u00ed odstra\u0161en\u00ed na\u00a0v\u00fdchodn\u00edm k\u0159\u00eddle, zat\u00edmco It\u00e1lie, \u0160pan\u011blsko, Portugalsko a\u00a0\u0158ecko volaj\u00ed po\u00a0v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pozornosti v\u011bnovan\u00e9 nekonven\u010dn\u00edm v\u00fdzv\u00e1m p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edm z\u00a0jihu. To\u00a0vede k\u00a0rozd\u00edln\u00fdm z\u00e1jm\u016fm a\u00a0stav\u00ed jihoevropsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty do\u00a0citliv\u00e9 pozice: mus\u00ed udr\u017eovat siln\u00e9 vazby se\u00a0Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 jsou z\u00e1sadn\u00ed pro jejich bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed ochranu, a\u00a0z\u00e1rove\u0148 podporovat evropskou integraci a\u00a0bezpe\u010dnost, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e sleduj\u00ed st\u00e1le v\u00fdrazn\u011bji odli\u0161n\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed a\u00a0region\u00e1ln\u00ed priority.<\/p>\n<p>St\u0159edn\u00ed perspektiva: N\u011bmecko<\/p>\n<p>N\u011bmecko zauj\u00edm\u00e1 specifick\u00e9 postaven\u00ed, proto\u017ee kombinuje charakteristiky jak pobaltsk\u00fdch, tak jihoevropsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed. Hraje kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli v\u00a0rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed EU\u00a0a NATO, op\u0159enou o\u00a0mimo\u0159\u00e1dnou ekonomickou v\u00e1hu a\u00a0fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed prostor. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 je\u00a0v\u0161ak n\u011bmeck\u00e1 strategick\u00e1 kultura siln\u011b ovlivn\u011bna historick\u00fdm d\u011bdictv\u00edm 20. stolet\u00ed. Rusk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka proti Ukrajin\u011b, umocn\u011bn\u00e1 \u00fastupem USA z\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch z\u00e1vazk\u016f a\u00a0prom\u011bnlivost\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky b\u011bhem druh\u00e9ho prezidentstv\u00ed Donalda Trumpa, zpochybnila n\u011bkolik kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch postoj\u016f Berl\u00edna. Tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v\u00a0tv\u00e1\u0159 tomu, co\u00a0tehdej\u0161\u00ed kancl\u00e9\u0159 Olaf Scholz ozna\u010dil za\u00a0Zeitenwende (historick\u00fd p\u0159ed\u011bl), zah\u00e1jilo N\u011bmecko rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 politick\u00e9 zm\u011bny. Zem\u011b se\u00a0tak\u00e9 p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eila seversk\u00fdm a\u00a0v\u00fdchodoevropsk\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm, pokud jde o\u00a0vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed hrozby a\u00a0ve\u0159ejnou podporu zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed obrann\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f. Zda se\u00a0tato zm\u011bna uk\u00e1\u017ee jako trval\u00e1, bude z\u00e1viset na\u00a0intenzit\u011b vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska jako hrozby, jak z\u00e1va\u017en\u011b budou vn\u00edm\u00e1ny \u201ekonkuren\u010dn\u00ed\u201c hrozby a\u00a0jak v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 budou vypadat budouc\u00ed rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 kompromisy.<\/p>\n<p>Vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00e9 hrozby (hodnota: 3\u20134)<\/p>\n<p>Invaze na\u00a0Ukrajinu z\u00e1sadn\u011b zm\u011bnila vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed hrozeb v\u00a0N\u011bmecku. P\u0159ed rokem 2022 pova\u017eovala Rusko za\u00a0hrozbu pro n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b t\u0159etina N\u011bmc\u016f. Od\u00a0t\u00e9 doby toto \u010d\u00edslo vzrostlo zhruba na\u00a0dv\u011b t\u0159etiny nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d regiony, pohlav\u00edmi i\u00a0politick\u00fdmi stranami v\u010detn\u011b voli\u010d\u016f krajn\u011b pravicov\u00e9 Alternativy pro N\u011bmecko (AfD) a\u00a0levicov\u011b-konzervativn\u00edho B\u00fcndnis Sahra Wagenknecht, by\u0165 u\u00a0t\u011bchto skupin v\u00a0m\u00edrn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e.<\/p>\n<p>Podle pr\u016fzkumu z\u00a0\u0159\u00edjna 2025 pova\u017euje 48\u00a0% N\u011bmc\u016f rozs\u00e1hl\u00fd vojensk\u00fd \u00fatok Ruska na\u00a0n\u011bkterou zemi NATO \u010di EU\u00a0b\u011bhem p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch p\u011bti let za\u00a0sp\u00ed\u0161e nebo velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd. N\u011bmeck\u00e9 zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby varovaly, \u017ee k\u00a0takov\u00e9mu \u00fatoku by\u00a0mohlo doj\u00edt je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed rokem 2029, z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u0161ak upozornily, \u017ee obyvatelstvo si\u00a0dosud pln\u011b neuv\u011bdomuje rozsah t\u00e9to hrozby navzdory s\u00edl\u00edc\u00edm rusk\u00fdm hybridn\u00edm \u00fatok\u016fm. Hierarchie rizik v\u00a0o\u010d\u00edch ve\u0159ejnosti se\u00a0nav\u00edc v\u00fdrazn\u011b li\u0161\u00ed od\u00a0pohledu obyvatel Pobalt\u00ed, Polska \u010di skandin\u00e1vsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. Vojensk\u00e9 hrozby jsou st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji zast\u00edn\u011bny obavami z\u00a0ekonomick\u00e9 nejistoty (inflace, chudoba), migrace a\u00a0organizovan\u00e9ho zlo\u010dinu. Takov\u00e1 debata nen\u00ed ciz\u00ed ani dal\u0161\u00edm st\u0159edoevropsk\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm \u2013 \u010cesk\u00e9 republice, Ma\u010farsku, Rakousku nebo Slovensku (a v\u00a0jist\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e dal\u0161\u00edm balk\u00e1nsk\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm).<\/p>\n<p>Rozpo\u010dtov\u00e1 flexibilita (hodnota: 4)<\/p>\n<p>V reakci na\u00a0Zeitenwende si\u00a0N\u011bmecko vytvo\u0159ilo v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed prostor pro obranu. T\u0159i dny po\u00a0rusk\u00e9 invazi ozn\u00e1mil tehdej\u0161\u00ed kancl\u00e9\u0159 Olaf Scholz vytvo\u0159en\u00ed fondu ve\u00a0v\u00fd\u0161i 100 miliard eur s\u00a0c\u00edlem zv\u00fd\u0161it obrann\u00e9 v\u00fddaje nad 2\u00a0% HDP. Po\u00a0znovuzvolen\u00ed Donalda Trumpa \u0161lo N\u011bmecko je\u0161t\u011b d\u00e1l: uvolnilo \u00fastavn\u00ed dluhovou brzdu pro obrann\u00e9 v\u00fddaje p\u0159esahuj\u00edc\u00ed 1\u00a0% HDP a\u00a0zav\u00e1zalo se\u00a0splnit nov\u00fd alian\u010dn\u00ed c\u00edl ve\u00a0v\u00fd\u0161i 5\u00a0% HDP do\u00a0roku 2029. P\u0159esto v\u0161ak, stejn\u011b jako \u010cesk\u00e1 republika, zaost\u00e1v\u00e1 za\u00a0sv\u00fdmi severn\u00edmi a\u00a0v\u00fdchodoevropsk\u00fdmi partnery, pokud jde o\u00a0pod\u00edl obrann\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f i\u00a0vojensk\u00e9 podpory Ukrajin\u011b na\u00a0HDP.<\/p>\n<p>N\u011bmeck\u00e1 fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed flexibilita je\u00a0podpo\u0159ena ve\u0159ejnou podporou. Po\u00a0rusk\u00e9 invazi na\u00a0Ukrajinu vzrostla podpora vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch obrann\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 na\u00a060 %. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u0161ak v\u011bt\u0161ina obyvatel podporuje tak\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fddaj\u016f na\u00a0vnit\u0159n\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost, d\u016fchody, zdravotnictv\u00ed a\u00a0vzd\u011bl\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a\u00a0odm\u00edt\u00e1 up\u0159ednostnit obranu p\u0159ed soci\u00e1ln\u00edmi programy. Dosud bylo toto nap\u011bt\u00ed p\u0159ekryto t\u00edm, \u017ee se\u00a0vl\u00e1da spol\u00e9hala sp\u00ed\u0161e na\u00a0zadlu\u017een\u00ed ne\u017e na\u00a0p\u0159erozd\u011blen\u00ed rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdch prost\u0159edk\u016f.<\/p>\n<p>Spole\u010densk\u00fd konsenzus (hodnota: 3)<\/p>\n<p>N\u011bmecku chyb\u00ed hlubok\u00fd a\u00a0stabiln\u00ed spole\u010densk\u00fd konsenzus v\u00a0oblasti obrann\u00e9 politiky, jak\u00fd je\u00a0typick\u00fd pro n\u011bkter\u00e9 skandin\u00e1vsk\u00e9 a\u00a0pobaltsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty. Postoje ve\u0159ejnosti k\u00a0solidarit\u011b s\u00a0v\u00fdchodn\u00edmi sousedy z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed rozt\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9. P\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b polovina N\u011bmc\u016f podporuje dod\u00e1vky zbran\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b, zat\u00edmco zbytek je\u00a0proti nebo je\u00a0jim tato ot\u00e1zka lhostejn\u00e1. Tyto rozd\u00edly prob\u00edhaj\u00ed pod\u00e9l stranick\u00fdch lini\u00ed a\u00a0zejm\u00e9na mezi v\u00fdchodn\u00edm a\u00a0z\u00e1padn\u00edm N\u011bmeckem. Obecn\u011b p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed siln\u00e9 obavy z\u00a0eskalace: 41\u00a0% se\u00a0ob\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee dod\u00e1vky zbran\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b mohou v\u00e1lku prodlou\u017eit nebo ohrozit bezpe\u010dnost N\u011bmecka. Tyto obavy stoj\u00ed v\u00a0pozad\u00ed spor\u016f kolem dod\u00e1vek konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch zbra\u0148ov\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f, zejm\u00e9na st\u0159el s\u00a0plochou dr\u00e1hou letu Taurus, jejich\u017e dod\u00e1n\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161ina ve\u0159ejnosti st\u00e1le odm\u00edt\u00e1. Slab\u00fd konsenzus a\u00a0p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed strach z\u00a0eskalace \u010din\u00ed N\u011bmecko zraniteln\u00fdm v\u016f\u010di rusk\u00e9 propagand\u011b a\u00a0dezinformac\u00edm.<\/p>\n<p>Strategick\u00e1 kultura (hodnota: 3\u20134)<\/p>\n<p>N\u011bmeckou strategickou kulturu dlouhodob\u011b poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 politick\u00e1 a\u00a0vojensk\u00e1 zdr\u017eenlivost, siln\u00fd z\u00e1vazek k\u00a0multilateralismu a\u00a0pe\u010dliv\u00e9 vyva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed mezi atlantismem a\u00a0evropsk\u00fdm sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00edm. Tyto rysy vych\u00e1zej\u00ed ze\u00a0zku\u0161enosti zem\u011b ve\u00a020. stolet\u00ed: por\u00e1\u017eky ve\u00a0druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, zlo\u010din\u016f nacistick\u00e9ho re\u017eimu a\u00a0desetilet\u00ed rozd\u011blen\u00ed b\u011bhem studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. Rusk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka a\u00a0\u00fastup Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f z\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch z\u00e1vazk\u016f tyto z\u00e1klady zpochybnily a\u00a0p\u0159isp\u011bly k\u00a0tomu, co\u00a0n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed ozna\u010duj\u00ed za\u00a0\u201ekrizi zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00e9 identity\u201c. Vl\u00e1da Friedricha Merze p\u0159isl\u00edbila rozhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed veden\u00ed v\u00a0oblasti evropsk\u00e9 obrany, mus\u00ed v\u0161ak p\u016fsobit ve\u00a0spole\u010dnosti a\u00a0politick\u00e9m syst\u00e9mu, kde je\u00a0zdr\u017eenlivost hluboce zako\u0159en\u011bna. Rozpory uvnit\u0159 koalice (nap\u0159\u00edklad ohledn\u011b mo\u017en\u00e9ho znovuzaveden\u00ed brann\u00e9 povinnosti) ukazuj\u00ed, jak p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed historick\u00e9 instinkty komplikuj\u00ed snahu o\u00a0razantn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed veden\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed ukotven\u00ed a\u00a0vliv v\u00a0alianc\u00edch (hodnota: 4)<\/p>\n<p>N\u011bmecko je\u00a0pevn\u011b zakotveno v\u00a0NATO i\u00a0v\u00a0EU a\u00a0jeho ekonomick\u00e1 s\u00edla mu\u00a0d\u00e1v\u00e1 zna\u010dn\u00fd vliv p\u0159i nastavov\u00e1n\u00ed agendy. Bundeswehr vede bojovou skupinu NATO v\u00a0r\u00e1mci pos\u00edlen\u00e9 p\u0159edsunut\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edtomnosti v\u00a0Litv\u011b a\u00a0hraje kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli v\u00a0odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed strategii Aliance. Jako nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ekonomice EU\u00a0N\u011bmecku rovn\u011b\u017e p\u0159ipad\u00e1 v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 role v\u00a0rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed cel\u00e9 Unie. P\u0159esto se\u00a0nestalo hybnou silou obrann\u011b-pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch iniciativ EU. Pot\u0159eba rychl\u00e9ho p\u0159ezbrojen\u00ed spolu s\u00a0tlakem na\u00a0investice do\u00a0dom\u00e1c\u00edho obrann\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu zat\u011b\u017euje tradi\u010dn\u00ed berl\u00ednsk\u00e9 proevropsk\u00e9 sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed. Pr\u016fzkum z\u00a0\u0159\u00edjna 2025 nazna\u010duje, \u017ee ve\u0159ejnost toto sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1le v\u00edce zpochyb\u0148uje: t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dv\u011b t\u0159etiny se\u00a0domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee N\u011bmecko v\u011bnuje ostatn\u00edm \u010dlensk\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm EU\u00a0nadm\u011brnou pozornost na\u00a0\u00fakor vlastn\u00edch z\u00e1jm\u016f. V\u00fdsledkem jsou sm\u00ed\u0161en\u00e9 pocity mezi spojenci. Mnoz\u00ed v\u00edtaj\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 n\u011bmeck\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 z\u00e1vazky, n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed v\u0161ak pochybuj\u00ed o\u00a0jejich trvalosti a\u00a0jin\u00ed se\u00a0ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 dominantn\u00edho N\u011bmecka prosazuj\u00edc\u00edho obrann\u00fd pr\u016fmyslov\u00fd nacionalismus.<\/p>\n<p>Odli\u0161n\u00e9 priority, sd\u00edlen\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnost<\/p>\n<p>Pobalt\u00ed (a do\u00a0jist\u00e9 m\u00edry i\u00a0Polsko a\u00a0skandin\u00e1vsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty) obvykle dosahuje nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edch nebo t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edch hodnot v\u00a0oblasti vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00e9 hrozby, spole\u010densk\u00e9ho konsenzu a\u00a0institucion\u00e1ln\u00edho ukotven\u00ed, co\u017e odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed jeho geografickou bl\u00edzkost k\u00a0Rusku, silnou ve\u0159ejnou podporu odstra\u0161en\u00ed a\u00a0hlubokou z\u00e1vislost na\u00a0NATO a\u00a0Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech. Rozpo\u010dtov\u00e1 flexibilita je\u00a0sice omezena mal\u00fdmi ekonomikami, av\u0161ak siln\u00e9 politick\u00e9 veden\u00ed a\u00a0opora v\u00a0Alianci regionu umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed ambici\u00f3zn\u00ed obrann\u00e9 z\u00e1vazky. Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno: intenzivn\u00ed vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00e9 hrozby, politick\u00e1 v\u016fle a\u00a0podpora Aliance kompenzuj\u00ed omezen\u00fd fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed prostor.<\/p>\n<p>It\u00e1lie a\u00a0\u0161ir\u0161\u00ed ji\u017en\u00ed blok (\u0160pan\u011blsko, Portugalsko, \u0158ecko a\u00a0\u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b Francie) vykazuj\u00ed odli\u0161n\u00fd vzorec: slab\u0161\u00ed vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00e9 hrozby, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdznam je\u00a0p\u0159ikl\u00e1d\u00e1n migraci, energetick\u00e9 zranitelnosti a\u00a0region\u00e1ln\u00ed nestabilit\u011b; omezen\u00e1 rozpo\u010dtov\u00e1 flexibilita v\u00a0d\u016fsledku vy\u0161\u0161\u00edho ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho dluhu a\u00a0demografick\u00e9ho \u00fabytku; rozt\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011bn\u00fd spole\u010densk\u00fd konsenzus formovan\u00fd siln\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi antimilitaristick\u00fdmi proudy a\u00a0volebn\u00ed citlivost\u00ed; a\u00a0strategick\u00e1 opatrnost na\u00a0\u00farovni elit. Institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed ukotven\u00ed je\u00a0sm\u00ed\u0161en\u00e9, vliv NATO na\u00a0prosazen\u00ed rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9ho dom\u00e1c\u00edho p\u0159ezbrojen\u00ed z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 slab\u0161\u00ed. Ji\u017en\u00ed Evropa tak vykazuje omezenou schopnost rychle navy\u0161ovat obrann\u00e9 kapacity a\u00a0politicky trval\u00fd odpor k\u00a0p\u0159esouv\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fddaj\u016f od\u00a0soci\u00e1ln\u00edch pot\u0159eb sm\u011brem k\u00a0obran\u011b.<\/p>\n<p>N\u011bmecko lze nejl\u00e9pe charakterizovat jako hybridn\u00ed profil. Institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed ukotven\u00ed i\u00a0fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed flexibilita jsou vysok\u00e9, podpo\u0159en\u00e9 hlubokou integrac\u00ed do\u00a0EU a\u00a0NATO a\u00a0relativn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00fdm ve\u0159ejn\u00fdm dluhem. Vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed hrozby od\u00a0roku 2022 v\u00fdrazn\u011b vzrostlo, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e hodnocen\u00ed elit z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 stabiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a\u00a0konzistentn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e postoje \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed ve\u0159ejnosti. Naproti tomu spole\u010densk\u00fd konsenzus a\u00a0strategick\u00e1 kultura z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed podobn\u011b jako v\u00a0\u010cesk\u00e9 republice a\u00a0\u0161ir\u0161\u00ed st\u0159edn\u00ed Evrop\u011b ambivalentn\u00ed. Historick\u00e1 zdr\u017eenlivost, konkuren\u010dn\u00ed rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 priority a\u00a0sporn\u00e9 politick\u00e9 narativy vedou pouze ke\u00a0st\u0159edn\u00edm hodnot\u00e1m. N\u011bmeck\u00e9 hodnocen\u00ed tak odhaluje zna\u010dnou struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed kapacitu vedle p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch politick\u00fdch a\u00a0kulturn\u00edch omezen\u00ed, kter\u00e1 formuj\u00ed jak tempo jeho vlastn\u00edho p\u0159ezbrojen\u00ed, tak rychlost a\u00a0rozsah podpory Ukrajin\u011b.<\/p>\n<p>Zdroj: DGAP, NATO, Eurobarometer<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Plnohodnotn\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 invaze na\u00a0Ukrajinu si\u00a0vynutila z\u00e1sadn\u00ed p\u0159ehodnocen\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 obrany. Zat\u00edmco \u010dlensk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty EU\u00a0a NATO p\u0159isl\u00edbily vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed investice, hlub\u0161\u00ed&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":8848,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[5625,109,108,106,5628,5627,5633,5632,5626,5629,5631,5630,5634],"class_list":{"0":"post-8847","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-evropa","8":"tag-dgap","9":"tag-europa","10":"tag-europe","11":"tag-evropa","12":"tag-evropske","13":"tag-iluzi","14":"tag-jih","15":"tag-mobilizuje","16":"tag-o","17":"tag-obranne","18":"tag-sever","19":"tag-soudrznosti","20":"tag-vaha"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8847","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8847"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8847\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8848"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8847"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8847"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8847"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}