{"id":96258,"date":"2026-05-25T07:20:15","date_gmt":"2026-05-25T07:20:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/96258\/"},"modified":"2026-05-25T07:20:15","modified_gmt":"2026-05-25T07:20:15","slug":"nemecka-a-rakouska-mizerie-rustu-nekonci-co-to-znamena-pro-cesko","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/96258\/","title":{"rendered":"N\u011bmeck\u00e1 a rakousk\u00e1 miz\u00e9rie r\u016fstu nekon\u010d\u00ed. Co to znamen\u00e1 pro \u010cesko?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Investo\u0159i postupn\u011b opou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed p\u0159edstavu, \u017ee dopady zav\u0159en\u00e9 Hormuzsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u017einy nestoj\u00ed za \u0159e\u010d. Sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed o\u00a0tom v\u00fd\u0161e, kam koncem minul\u00e9ho t\u00fddne vyst\u0159elily v\u00fdnosy desetilet\u00fdch vl\u00e1dn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f<\/a>. Ty americk\u00e9 vystoupaly a\u017e nad 4,6\u00a0procenta, \u010desk\u00e9 na p\u011bt procent. Desetilet\u00e9 bondy N\u011bmecka, optikou trh\u016f nejbezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho dlu\u017en\u00edka v\u00a0EU, vystoupaly m\u00edsty a\u017e k\u00a0hranici 3,2\u00a0procenta. To je p\u0159es deset let nevid\u011bn\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148.<\/p>\n

By\u0165 n\u00e1r\u016fst v\u00fdnos\u016f stihnul \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b opadnout, nad\u00e1le vyjad\u0159uje strach z\u00a0inflace<\/a> kv\u016fli zablokovan\u00e9mu v\u00fdvozu surovin ze zem\u00ed Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. Blok\u00e1da hospod\u00e1\u0159sky nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho pr\u016flivu na sv\u011bt\u011b z\u00e1rove\u0148 zvy\u0161uje hrozbu, \u017ee jen tak neskon\u010d\u00ed ani ekonomick\u00e1 d\u00fdchavi\u010dnost zem\u00ed se z\u00e1sadn\u00ed stopou v\u00a0\u010desk\u00e9m byznysu.<\/p>\n

R\u016fst na dluh<\/p>\n

Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b N\u011bmecka a\u00a0Rakouska, kter\u00e9 loni po letech postpandemick\u00e9 stagnace vyk\u00e1zaly m\u00edrn\u00fd r\u016fst v\u00a0\u0159\u00e1du desetin procenta. U\u00a0ji\u017en\u00edho souseda \u010ceska vzrostl HDP o\u00a00,6\u00a0procenta, v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Spolkov\u00e9 republiky to bylo o\u00a00,2\u00a0procenta.<\/p>\n

Je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed americko-izraelsk\u00fdm \u00fatokem na \u00cdr\u00e1n progn\u00f3zy v\u011b\u0161tily<\/a> ob\u011bma zem\u00edm pro rok 2026 r\u016fst jejich hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed o\u00a0zhruba procento. Ned\u00e1vno ale n\u011bmeck\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady kv\u016fli d\u011bn\u00ed na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b osekaly<\/a> tento v\u00fdhled na polovinu, stejn\u011b jako rakousk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka.<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201eNavzdory energetick\u00e9mu cenov\u00e9mu \u0161oku ale nejsp\u00ed\u0161 bude o\u017eiven\u00ed v\u00a0N\u011bmecku ve zbytku leto\u0161n\u00edho roku pokra\u010dovat. A\u00a0to zejm\u00e9na kv\u016fli vl\u00e1dn\u00edm v\u00fddaj\u016fm na infrastrukturu, dekarbonizaci a\u00a0obranu,\u201c poukazuje<\/a> ekonom Timo Wollmersh\u00e4user z\u00a0institutu Ifo na o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd vliv stimul\u016f v\u00a0\u0159\u00e1du stovek miliard eur, kter\u00fdmi se sna\u017e\u00ed kancl\u00e9\u0159 Friedrich Merz nastartovat tamn\u00ed ekonomiku. Rakousko je naopak v\u00a0situaci, kdy se kv\u016fli masivn\u00edm rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdm schodk\u016fm ve v\u00fd\u0161i p\u0159es \u010dty\u0159i procenta HDP sna\u017e\u00ed \u0161et\u0159it a\u00a0vl\u00e1dn\u00ed v\u00fddaje osek\u00e1vat<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Vlna bankrot\u016f<\/p>\n

Ani vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed v\u00fddaje ale automaticky nemusej\u00ed v\u00e9st k\u00a0rozkv\u011btu byznysu. Jak upozornil list Handelsblatt<\/a>, zemi su\u017euje dvacet let nev\u00eddan\u00e1 vlna bankrot\u016f. Podle citovan\u00fdch statistik Leibnizova institutu pro hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd v\u00fdzkum dos\u00e1hl jen v\u00a0dubnu po\u010det insolvenc\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 1800, tedy o\u00a0deset procent v\u00edce ne\u017e p\u0159ed rokem. V\u00a0porovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011brem p\u0159edcovidov\u00fdch let 2016 a\u017e 2019 jsou nyn\u00ed firemn\u00ed krachy \u010detn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed o\u00a082\u00a0procent.<\/p>\n

\u201ePodstatn\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu typu automotive nebo chemick\u00e9ho odv\u011btv\u00ed nejsou ekonomicky \u017eivotaschopn\u00e9, alespo\u0148 ne ve sv\u00e9m st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edm rozsahu. A\u00a0to je v\u00a0podstat\u011b ten z\u00e1kladn\u00ed probl\u00e9m N\u011bmecka,\u201c popsal ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve v\u00a0rozhovoru pro e15<\/a> hlavn\u00ed probl\u00e9m n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed Wolfgang M\u00fcnchau, autor knihy Kaput: Konec n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho z\u00e1zraku.<\/p>\n

\u201eP\u0159\u00edmo p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho \u00fapadku N\u011bmecka ale nen\u00ed zelen\u00e1 transformace a\u00a0jsem v\u016f\u010di n\u00ed p\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u011b pozitivn\u00ed. Mysl\u00edm si v\u0161ak, \u017ee byla provedena velmi ne\u0161\u0165astn\u011b. Jej\u00ed na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed je mizern\u00e9 a\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00e9 kroky jako t\u0159eba vypnut\u00ed jadern\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren pova\u017euji za z\u00e1sadn\u00ed chybu,\u201c dodal M\u00fcnchau.<\/p>\n

Nakaz\u00ed se \u010cesko?<\/p>\n

Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed probl\u00e9my N\u011bmecka nem\u016f\u017ee \u010cesko ignorovat, by\u0165 trable z\u00e1padn\u00edho souseda p\u016fsob\u00ed v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech st\u00e1le m\u00e9n\u011b zlov\u011bstn\u011b. Pou\u010dka \u201epokud N\u011bmecko k\u00fdchne, \u010desk\u00e1 ekonomika dostane ch\u0159ipku,\u201c bledne nejen v\u00a0souvislosti s\u00a0v\u00fdhledy pro leto\u0161n\u00ed rok. Tuzemsk\u00fd r\u016fst HDP by m\u011bl v\u00fdrazn\u011b p\u0159ekonat N\u011bmecko i\u00a0Rakousko navzdory tomu, \u017ee i\u00a0dom\u00e1c\u00ed instituce jeho odhady sni\u017euj\u00ed. Ve \u010dtvrtek nap\u0159\u00edklad zhor\u0161ila odhad leto\u0161n\u00edho r\u016fstu \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky \u010cesk\u00e1 bankovn\u00ed asociace na dv\u011b procenta z\u00a02,6\u00a0procenta.<\/p>\n

\u201eKonflikt na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b na\u0161i ekonomiku zas\u00e1hl v\u00a0situaci velmi n\u00edzk\u00e9 inflace a\u00a0solidn\u00edho r\u016fstu nomin\u00e1ln\u00edch mezd. Podle na\u0161ich p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch odhad\u016f m\u011bl r\u016fst re\u00e1ln\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f \u010desk\u00fdch dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed pat\u0159it v\u00a0r\u00e1mci EU k\u00a0nejrychlej\u0161\u00edm. Zde m\u00e1 \u010cesko ur\u010ditou v\u00fdhodu proti Rakousku nebo N\u011bmecku,\u201c vysv\u011btluje hlavn\u00ed ekonom Patria Finance Dominik Rusinko.<\/p>\n

\"Kdo<\/a>Kdo nejrychleji sni\u017euje st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh v roce 2026? Z ji\u017en\u00edch h\u0159\u00ed\u0161n\u00edk\u016f se stali premianti<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201eNemysl\u00edm si ale, \u017ee lze v\u00a0tuto chv\u00edli jednozna\u010dn\u011b \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee hormuzsk\u00e1 krize dopad\u00e1 h\u016f\u0159e na N\u011bmecko a\u00a0Rakousko ne\u017e na \u010cesko. Zat\u00edm m\u00e1me k\u00a0dispozici jen omezen\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed tvrd\u00fdch dat a\u00a0rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed budou dal\u0161\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce a\u00a0kvart\u00e1ly. St\u00e1le jsme ve f\u00e1zi prvotn\u00edho energetick\u00e9ho \u0161oku, kter\u00fd se p\u0159es vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1klady prom\u00edt\u00e1 zejm\u00e9na do energeticky n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00fdch pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00ed. Z\u00e1sadn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e samotn\u00fd prvotn\u00ed n\u00e1kladov\u00fd \u0161ok mohou b\u00fdt dopady do spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 popt\u00e1vky, \u201c<\/p>\n

\u010cesku podle Rusinka napom\u00e1h\u00e1 k\u00a0r\u016fstu i\u00a0skute\u010dnost, \u017ee v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech m\u00edrn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eilo hospod\u00e1\u0159skou z\u00e1vislost na N\u011bmecku. \u201eSt\u00e1le jde v\u0161ak o\u00a0n\u00e1\u0161 nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed exportn\u00ed trh. Pod\u00edl v\u00fdvozu do N\u011bmecka postupn\u011b klesl o\u00a0n\u011bkolik procentn\u00edch bod\u016f t\u011bsn\u011b pod hranici 30\u00a0procent. To je st\u00e1le vysok\u00e1 m\u00edra z\u00e1vislosti, kter\u00e1 se m\u016f\u017ee v\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch letech d\u00e1le pozvolna sni\u017eovat. Detailn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pohled na strukturu \u010desk\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozu ukazuje, \u017ee v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech slab\u0161\u00ed popt\u00e1vku z\u00a0N\u011bmecka \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b kompenzoval \u00fasp\u011bch na jin\u00fdch, zejm\u00e9na mimoevropsk\u00fdch trz\u00edch. To nebylo historicky pro \u010desk\u00fd export typick\u00e9 a\u00a0podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru to ukazuje na rostouc\u00ed odolnost tuzemsk\u00e9ho exportn\u011b orientovan\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu,\u201c dopl\u0148uje ekonom a\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u011b varuje, \u017ee N\u011bmecko z\u016fstane pro \u010desk\u00fd byznys vlivem geografick\u00e9 bl\u00edzkosti a\u00a0velikosti sv\u00e9 ekonomiky kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm odbyti\u0161t\u011bm.<\/p>\n

VIDEO:Trhy n\u00e1m p\u0159est\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u011b\u0159it, \u010cesko je u\u017e rizikov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e \u0158ecko, varoval ekonom Navr\u00e1til z\u00a0\u010cesk\u00e9 spo\u0159itelny v\u00a0po\u0159adu FLOW<\/a><\/p>\n

\"Video<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\tFLOW: Rozhovor s Davidem Navr\u00e1tilem z ledna 2026 \u2022 e15\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Investo\u0159i postupn\u011b opou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed p\u0159edstavu, \u017ee dopady zav\u0159en\u00e9 Hormuzsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u017einy nestoj\u00ed za \u0159e\u010d. Sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed o\u00a0tom v\u00fd\u0161e, kam koncem minul\u00e9ho…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":96259,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[11],"tags":[42,708,571,11450,375,6131,256,54,28959,53,52],"class_list":["post-96258","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-svet","tag-cesko","tag-ekonomika","tag-evropska-unie","tag-hdp","tag-nemecko","tag-persky-zaliv","tag-rakousko","tag-svet","tag-wolfgang-munchau","tag-world","tag-world-news"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116634007920679733","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96258","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96258"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96258\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/96259"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96258"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96258"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96258"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}