{"id":97691,"date":"2026-05-26T11:31:11","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T11:31:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/97691\/"},"modified":"2026-05-26T11:31:11","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T11:31:11","slug":"jako-rusky-velitel-hrave-vysachoval-nato-nemecky-expert-odhalil-sokujici-mezery-aktualne-cz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/97691\/","title":{"rendered":"Jako „rusk\u00fd velitel“ hrav\u011b vy\u0161achoval NATO. N\u011bmeck\u00fd expert odhalil \u0161okuj\u00edc\u00ed mezery \u2013 Aktu\u00e1ln\u011b.cz"},"content":{"rendered":"

Podle Gadyho vstoup\u00ed<\/a> Evropa po skon\u010den\u00ed boj\u016f na Ukrajin\u011b do sv\u00e9ho nejnebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho obdob\u00ed. Rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da bude v t\u00e9 dob\u011b disponovat minim\u00e1ln\u011b p\u011btilet\u00fdmi zku\u0161enostmi z modern\u00edho v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed, zat\u00edmco evropsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 kapacity mohou b\u00fdt na sv\u00e9m relativn\u00edm minimu.<\/p>\n

V r\u00e1mci prosincov\u00e9 simulace, kter\u00e1 se odehr\u00e1vala ve fiktivn\u00edm roce 2026, dostal Gady za \u00fakol v roli n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edka rusk\u00e9ho gener\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0161t\u00e1bu vyvolat krizi na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm k\u0159\u00eddle NATO.<\/p>\n

Strategie rychlosti a izolace<\/p>\n

Gadyho v\u00edt\u011bzn\u00e1 strategie se op\u00edrala o t\u0159i kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 faktory: rychlost, vytvo\u0159en\u00ed hotov\u00e9 v\u011bci (fait accompli, ozna\u010duje situaci nebo rozhodnut\u00ed, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e bylo uskute\u010dn\u011bno a nelze jej snadno zm\u011bnit \u010di zvr\u00e1tit – pozn. red.) a odstra\u0161en\u00ed jadernou eskalac\u00ed. C\u00edlem \u201eRud\u00e9ho t\u00fdmu\u201c bylo bleskov\u011b obsadit \u010d\u00e1st litevsk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed a od\u0159\u00edznout pobaltsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty od zbytku NATO d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e aliance stihne zareagovat.<\/p>\n

Pl\u00e1n po\u010d\u00edtal s koordinovan\u00fdm \u00fatokem z Kaliningradu a B\u011bloruska, kter\u00fd by se b\u011bhem 24 hodin spojil u litevsk\u00e9ho m\u011bsta Marijampole. T\u00edm by do\u0161lo k faktick\u00e9mu uzav\u0159en\u00ed Suvalsk\u00e9ho pr\u016fsmyku. K udr\u017een\u00ed tohoto koridoru Gady vyu\u017eil modern\u00ed rusk\u00e9 poznatky z Ukrajiny \u2013 masivn\u00ed nasazen\u00ed dron\u016f integrovan\u00fdch s d\u011blost\u0159electvem a robustn\u00ed protivzdu\u0161nou obranu, \u010d\u00edm\u017e vytvo\u0159il \u201ez\u00f3nu smrti\u201c, kter\u00e1 znemo\u017e\u0148ovala jak\u00fdkoliv proti\u00fatok NATO.<\/p>\n

O takzvan\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 h\u0159e jsme u\u017e psali na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku<\/a>, n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edk rusk\u00e9ho gener\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0161t\u00e1bu, tedy citovan\u00fd Franz-Stefan Gady, se ale v anal\u00fdze pro Foreign Policy rozpov\u00eddal<\/a> a\u017e v polovin\u011b kv\u011btna.<\/p>\n

\"Suvalsk\u00fd<\/p>\n

Suvalsk\u00fd koridor je \u00fazem\u00ed na hranici Polska, Litvy, rusk\u00e9 Kaliningradsk\u00e9 oblasti a B\u011bloruska.Foto: Aktu\u00e1ln\u011b.cz<\/p>\n

Politick\u00e1 paral\u00fdza Evropy<\/p>\n

Nejz\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00edm zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 hry nebyla vojensk\u00e1 p\u0159evaha, ale politick\u00e1 nerozhodnost. Gady uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee jeho hlavn\u00edm c\u00edlem bylo \u201ezni\u010dit d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost NATO a udr\u017eet Ameri\u010dany mimo konflikt\u201c. S\u00e1zel na to, \u017ee evrop\u0161t\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i nebudou ochotni riskovat p\u0159\u00edmou, potenci\u00e1ln\u011b jadernou v\u00e1lku s Ruskem kv\u016fli jednomu pobaltsk\u00e9mu st\u00e1tu.<\/p>\n

V simulaci tento p\u0159edpoklad vy\u0161el. N\u011bmeck\u00fd \u201eModr\u00fd t\u00fdm\u201c, p\u0159edstavuj\u00edc\u00ed vl\u00e1du v Berl\u00edn\u011b, byl \u00fatokem natolik ohromen a paralyzov\u00e1n, \u017ee neud\u011blal v\u016fbec nic. Gady zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee dokud se Rusku da\u0159ilo dr\u017eet USA mimo hru prvn\u00edch 48 hodin, riziko okam\u017eit\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 reakce bylo minim\u00e1ln\u00ed. Evropsk\u00e9 letectvo v roce 2026 by toti\u017e bez americk\u00e9 podpory postr\u00e1dalo kapacity k prora\u017een\u00ed rusk\u00e9 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany.<\/p>\n

Politickou paral\u00fdzu jako probl\u00e9m v ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m rozhovoru pro po\u0159ad Spotlight News popisoval i b\u00fdval\u00fd slovensk\u00fd ministr obrany a v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk nevl\u00e1dn\u00ed organizace GLOBSEC Martin Sklen\u00e1r. Ten ve zpr\u00e1v\u011b srovn\u00e1val, jak se r\u016fzn\u00e9 zem\u011b dok\u00e1\u017e\u00ed vypo\u0159\u00e1dat s n\u00e1hl\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem.<\/p>\n

\u201eKl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm rozd\u00edlem je existence otev\u0159en\u00e9 diskuse o tom, jak re\u00e1ln\u00e9 hrozby jsou a co mus\u00ed st\u00e1t ud\u011blat pro ochranu obyvatelstva, ekonomiky a \u017eivotn\u00edho stylu. V zem\u00edch jako Finsko, Estonsko \u010di Polsko politici o t\u011bchto v\u011bcech mluv\u00ed up\u0159\u00edmn\u011b, d\u00edky \u010demu\u017e obyvatelstvo l\u00e9pe akceptuje i t\u011b\u017ek\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed, jako jsou vysok\u00e9 v\u00fddaje na obranu nebo znovuzaveden\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 slu\u017eby,\u201c \u0159ekl Sklen\u00e1r.<\/p>\n

Lid\u00e9 tam podle n\u011bj rozum\u00ed tomu, \u017ee to nen\u00ed volba jejich vl\u00e1d, ale d\u016fsledek zhor\u0161en\u00e9 situace, a bez t\u011bchto krok\u016f by byla ohro\u017eena jejich bezpe\u010dnost i prosperita.<\/p>\n

Varov\u00e1n\u00ed pro budoucnost<\/p>\n

V\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 hra kon\u010dila d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e NATO stihlo podniknout jak\u00fdkoliv proti\u00fader. Gady ve sv\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku pro Foreign Policy varuje, \u017ee Rusko dnes k od\u0159\u00edznut\u00ed Pobalt\u00ed nepot\u0159ebuje fyzicky kontrolovat ter\u00e9n; d\u00edky pokroku v dynamick\u00e9m c\u00edlen\u00ed a d\u00e1lkov\u00e9m minov\u00e1n\u00ed mu sta\u010d\u00ed \u201ekontrola palbou\u201c.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011brem autor upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee pro Vladimira Putina z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 arm\u00e1da jedin\u00fdm n\u00e1strojem k prosazen\u00ed vlivu. Pokud se Evropa nedok\u00e1\u017ee vyrovnat rusk\u00fdm vojensk\u00fdm schopnostem v oblasti v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed na d\u00e1lku a nez\u00edsk\u00e1 politickou rozhodnost, z\u016fstane hrozba rozpadu aliance skrze omezenou invazi re\u00e1ln\u00fdm rizikem.<\/p>\n

Mohlo by v\u00e1s zaj\u00edmat: Estonci se spolu s dal\u0161\u00edmi alian\u010dn\u00edmi voj\u00e1ky chystaj\u00ed v r\u00e1mci cvi\u010den\u00ed Jarn\u00ed bou\u0159e na hrozbu z Ruska<\/p>\n

Celou report\u00e1\u017e si m\u016f\u017eete p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst zde<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Podle Gadyho vstoup\u00ed Evropa po skon\u010den\u00ed boj\u016f na Ukrajin\u011b do sv\u00e9ho nejnebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho obdob\u00ed. Rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da bude v t\u00e9…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":97692,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[11],"tags":[60,12451,54,53,52],"class_list":["post-97691","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-svet","tag-rusky-utok-na-ukrajinu-2022","tag-simulace","tag-svet","tag-world","tag-world-news"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@cz\/116640657559448830","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97691","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=97691"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97691\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/97692"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=97691"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=97691"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=97691"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}