Die
aktuelle Haushaltsdebatte in Großbritannien kommentiert Guillermo Felices,
Global Investment Strategist für Fixed Income at PGIM:
This Budget was all about
regaining confidence of both the market and labour MPs, and it is doing the
minimum to achieve that. The market reaction is consistent with some confidence
being restored, with gilts rallying and sterling stronger versus the US dollar
and euro.
Overall, the Government has
increased headroom by £22 billion (versus the £15 billion expected), introduced
measures that will help inflation to fall further, and reduced cash
requirements a bit, meaning that UK government debt issuance numbers will be more
reasonable. This should pave the way for the Bank of England to cut rates,
which is positive for gilts.
The key remaining uncertainties
are the fact that the tax increases are backloaded so revenues will only be
realised in the future; growth assumptions were trimmed lower, though are still
very optimistic hovering at around 1.5% after 2027; and politically, I am not
sure the Government has done enough, especially after freezing income tax
thresholds. These uncertainties could easily come back to haunt the gilts
market in the next few months.