Today\u2019s anti-ballistic momentum began with U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s seemingly off-the-cuff comment at the NATO summit in Ankara earlier this month, when he pledged to grant Ukraine permission<\/a> to produce Patriot missiles for the first time.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re going to give a license to you to make Patriots. That\u2019s pretty cool. This way, you can\u2019t complain that we\u2019re not giving \u2018em enough,\u201d Trump said, adding that the companies that make the system\u2019s components, primarily Lockheed Martin, had not yet been consulted on the plan.<\/p>\n Five days later, Ukraine and nine European countries launched a coalition<\/a> in Paris to field Freyja, an entirely new anti-ballistic system centered on a Ukrainian interceptor priced at roughly one-fifth of a Patriot round.<\/p>\n A week after that, Lockheed Martin<\/a> unveiled a cheaper, faster-to-produce Patriot missile of its own. And on Wednesday, the company announced the Pentagon had awarded it another $53.86 billion for PAC-3 production, bringing its multiyear deal up to $58.62 billion<\/a> and aiming to triple production capacity by the end of 2030.<\/p>\n The new anti-ballistics arms race has manifested largely as a result of the munitions shortage created by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, during which American forces have fired at least 1,060 to 1,430 Patriots<\/a> at roughly $3.9 million apiece, draining an estimated two-thirds of America\u2019s pre-war Patriot inventory<\/a>, according to a new analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies<\/a>.<\/p>\n The diminished stockpile is compounded by the ongoing war in Ukraine, where ballistic missiles are the only threat Kyiv still needs help taking down and the one munition it has completely run out of.<\/p>\n With three new anti-ballistic tracks opened in July alone, NATO and its allies are aiming to shore up air defenses as quickly as possible. <\/p>\n Here is where the primary Patriot interceptor stands, and how the three new alternative pathways in the arms race stack up.<\/p>\n The standard: The Patriot interceptor<\/p>\n The Patriot, the U.S.-made gold standard of ground-based air defense, pairs a radar, a command post and launchers with two families of interceptor missiles, each fielded in several variants.<\/p>\n Lockheed Martin builds the PAC-3 MSE, the hit-to-kill round that rams ballistic missiles out of the sky, while Raytheon, which also makes the Patriot\u2019s radars and ground systems, builds the older PAC-2 GEM-T, a round that explodes near its target and works best against aircraft and cruise missiles.<\/p>\n The MSE is the only Western munition that has reliably killed Russian ballistic missiles \u2014 from Iskanders to modified S-300s \u2014 in Ukrainian service. It has even downed the air-launched Kinzhal<\/a>, which flies at hypersonic speeds.<\/p>\n That record is why the Pentagon on Wednesday awarded Lockheed a multiyear deal now worth up to $58.62 billion to triple production capacity by the end of 2030. Today, each round costs roughly $3.9 million.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is a once-in-a-generation moment, and we are moving with wartime urgency to deliver the Arsenal of Freedom,\u201d Lockheed chairman and CEO Jim Taiclet said in a statement<\/a>.<\/p>\n The grant: Ukrainian PAC-3s under US license<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s pledge in Turkey would make Ukraine only the second country outside the U.S. licensed to build Patriot missiles, after Japan, which has produced them under license for decades.<\/p>\n Germany, the Netherlands and Spain are only now standing up a joint production line<\/a>. Berlin is negotiating a license of its own and Germany\u2019s existing GEM-T work runs through a joint venture with Raytheon rather than a national license, according to The Associated Press<\/a>.<\/p>\n The license under discussion for Kyiv would likely cover the missiles \u2014 rather than complete batteries \u2014 and could mean final assembly from imported component kits instead of production from scratch, the AP reported.<\/p>\n Poland has offered to host the joint production on its territory for safety and security reasons, according to Polish news agency PAP<\/a>. <\/p>\n \u201cIt is about securing this production, so that this production takes place in a safe location,\u201d Polish Deputy Defense Minister Magdalena Sobkowiak-Czarnecka said in Washington on July 23.<\/p>\n Zelenskyy said he met with Lockheed Martin representatives while visiting the U.S. for Sen. Lindsey Graham\u2019s funeral on July 28, posting on Telegram<\/a> that \u201cOur teams are already working on specific solutions to move to joint production as soon as possible.\u201d<\/p>\n The cost of the licensed PAC-3, meanwhile, would stay the same at close $4 million per round.<\/p>\n Yehor Chernev, deputy chairman of the Rada\u2019s committee on national security, defense and intelligence, estimates Ukraine needs at least 18 to 24 months to launch a first pilot production line, \u201cfollowed by more time to complete the first weapons,\u201d per The Associated Press<\/a>. <\/p>\n Zelenskyy is pushing for even faster joint production. <\/p>\n \u201cWe expect that by the end of 2026, our Ukrainian team will have the technical capability to produce U.S. missiles,\u201d he said on July 15.<\/p>\n The analogue: Freyja<\/p>\n Freyja is a full Patriot-style anti-ballistic system that includes an interceptor, launcher, radar and command-and-control network. <\/p>\n The system, designed by Kyiv startup Fire Point<\/a>, is built around its FP-7.X interceptor missile and various capabilities supplied by European partners.<\/p>\n Zelenskyy called Freyja \u201can analogue of Patriot, but a system for more mass production and a cheaper system.\u201d<\/p>\n His comments came as he formally launched the Integrated Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition in Paris on July 13 alongside nine other countries, including Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom.<\/p>\n The FP-7.X flew for the first time in early June and is built to kill ballistic targets at roughly 15 miles up using a high-explosive fragmentation warhead rather than the PAC-3\u2019s hit-to-kill collision \u2014 which may come in later versions \u2014 at a target price of approximately $700,000 per interceptor<\/a>, or roughly one-fifth the price of a PAC-3.<\/p>\n The company says it will build three interceptors a day starting in August. Zelenskyy wants the system up and running within 12 months, and the coalition is targeting its first real ballistic intercept for the end of 2027.<\/p>\n \u201cWe have an ambitious goal: to have an MVP ready by the first half of next year,\u201d Davyd Aloian, deputy secretary of Ukraine\u2019s National Security and Defense Council, told Reuters<\/a> on July 27. \u201cThat is a prototype that can already demonstrate its first practical results.\u201d<\/p>\n The Lockheed cost-cutter: PAC-3 ACE<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/defence\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/ELDDK2YEZJAHNAZXQZZOGV5PNE.JPG\")
U.S. President Donald Trump holds a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Ankara, Turkey, July 8, 2026. (Reuters\/Jonathan Ernst)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/defence\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/25AA6FMZWBF2XO2ZNEYYLI4THI.jpeg\")
A U.S. Army air defense artilleryman watches as spent Patriot interceptors are cross-loaded for transport in the Middle East. (U.S. Army)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/defence\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/MUPNUCWUPBAD5IFWZXXLPGI6YY.jpg\")
Patriot systems of the Dutch armed forces prepare for departure to Poland at Vredepeel air base, Netherlands, Nov. 19, 2025. (Sem van der Wal\/ANP\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/p>\n