On\u00a0Friday,\u00a0Saudi\u00a0Arabia,\u00a0T\u00fcrkiye\u00a0and\u00a0Pakistan\u00a0signed\u00a0a\u00a0trilateral\u00a0collective-defence\u00a0agreement\u00a0that\u00a0treats\u00a0an\u00a0armed\u00a0attack\u00a0against\u00a0any\u00a0one\u00a0of\u00a0the\u00a0three\u00a0states\u00a0as\u00a0an\u00a0attack\u00a0against\u00a0all,\u00a0establishing\u00a0a\u00a0new\u00a0security\u00a0framework\u00a0spanning\u00a0the\u00a0Arabian\u00a0Peninsula,\u00a0South\u00a0Asia\u00a0and\u00a0the\u00a0eastern\u00a0Mediterranean.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
The\u00a0Makkah\u00a0Joint\u00a0Defence\u00a0Agreement\u00a0was\u00a0signed\u00a0by\u00a0Saudi\u00a0Crown\u00a0Prince\u00a0Mohammed\u00a0bin\u00a0Salman,\u00a0Turkish\u00a0President\u00a0Recep\u00a0Tayyip\u00a0Erdo\u00a0an\u00a0and\u00a0Pakistani\u00a0Prime\u00a0Minister\u00a0Shehbaz\u00a0Sharif.\u00a0The\u00a0agreement\u00a0is\u00a0intended\u00a0to\u00a0strengthen\u00a0collective\u00a0deterrence\u00a0and\u00a0expand\u00a0defence\u00a0co-operation\u00a0across\u00a0multiple\u00a0military\u00a0domains.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
The\u00a0pact\u00a0follows\u00a0the\u00a0Saudi-Pakistan\u00a0Strategic\u00a0Mutual\u00a0Defence\u00a0Agreement\u00a0signed\u00a0in\u00a02025\u00a0and\u00a0provides\u00a0for\u00a0closer\u00a0co-operation\u00a0in\u00a0areas\u00a0including\u00a0military\u00a0readiness,\u00a0training,\u00a0intelligence,\u00a0logistics,\u00a0counterterrorism\u00a0and\u00a0defence\u00a0industry.\u00a0Its\u00a0language,\u00a0however,\u00a0does\u00a0not\u00a0specify\u00a0an\u00a0automatic\u00a0military\u00a0response\u00a0or\u00a0the\u00a0force\u00a0contributions\u00a0that\u00a0would\u00a0be\u00a0required\u00a0in\u00a0the\u00a0event\u00a0of\u00a0an\u00a0attack.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Officials\u00a0from\u00a0the\u00a0three\u00a0countries\u00a0have\u00a0described\u00a0the\u00a0arrangement\u00a0as\u00a0defensive\u00a0and\u00a0said\u00a0it\u00a0is\u00a0not\u00a0directed\u00a0against\u00a0a\u00a0particular\u00a0state.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
They\u00a0have\u00a0also\u00a0rejected\u00a0suggestions\u00a0that\u00a0it\u00a0is\u00a0intended\u00a0to\u00a0form\u00a0a\u00a0sectarian\u00a0bloc\u00a0or\u00a0trigger\u00a0a\u00a0regional\u00a0arms\u00a0race.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
The\u00a0agreement\u00a0brings\u00a0together\u00a0three\u00a0militaries\u00a0with\u00a0markedly\u00a0different\u00a0strengths.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Pakistan\u00a0contributes\u00a0the\u00a0largest\u00a0standing\u00a0force\u00a0in\u00a0the\u00a0grouping,\u00a0with\u00a0approximately\u00a0660,000\u00a0active\u00a0personnel,\u00a0more\u00a0than\u00a02,500\u00a0main\u00a0battle\u00a0tanks\u00a0and\u00a0more\u00a0than\u00a0420\u00a0combat-capable\u00a0aircraft,\u00a0including\u00a0JF-17,\u00a0F-16\u00a0and\u00a0J-10C\u00a0fleets.\u00a0Its\u00a0navy\u00a0operates\u00a0a\u00a0growing\u00a0submarine\u00a0force,\u00a0assessed\u00a0at\u00a0about\u00a0eight\u00a0boats,\u00a0while\u00a0the\u00a0country\u00a0retains\u00a0extensive\u00a0experience\u00a0in\u00a0high-intensity\u00a0operations\u00a0and\u00a0in\u00a0training\u00a0and\u00a0advising\u00a0Gulf\u00a0armed\u00a0forces.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Pakistan\u00a0is\u00a0also\u00a0the\u00a0only\u00a0nuclear-armed\u00a0member\u00a0of\u00a0the\u00a0arrangement.\u00a0The\u00a0Stockholm\u00a0International\u00a0Peace\u00a0Research\u00a0Institute\u00a0estimates\u00a0that\u00a0its\u00a0nuclear\u00a0stockpile\u00a0remained\u00a0at\u00a0approximately\u00a0170\u00a0warheads\u00a0as\u00a0of\u00a0January\u00a02026,\u00a0although\u00a0Islamabad\u00a0continues\u00a0to\u00a0develop\u00a0delivery\u00a0systems\u00a0and\u00a0fissile-material\u00a0production\u00a0capacity.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Saudi\u00a0Arabia\u00a0provides\u00a0the\u00a0grouping\u2019s\u00a0principal\u00a0financial\u00a0and\u00a0procurement\u00a0base.\u00a0Riyadh\u2019s\u00a0defence\u00a0expenditure\u00a0is\u00a0estimated\u00a0at\u00a0about\u00a0$88bn,\u00a0while\u00a0its\u00a0armed\u00a0forces\u00a0include\u00a0roughly\u00a0250,000\u2013257,000\u00a0active\u00a0personnel,\u00a0a\u00a0modernising\u00a0armoured\u00a0force\u00a0and\u00a0an\u00a0air\u00a0arm\u00a0centred\u00a0on\u00a0the\u00a0F-15\u00a0family.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
The\u00a0kingdom\u00a0also\u00a0brings\u00a0substantial\u00a0strategic\u00a0geography.\u00a0Its\u00a0territory\u00a0covers\u00a0approximately\u00a02.15mn\u00a0sq\u00a0km\u00a0and\u00a0contains\u00a0energy\u00a0infrastructure\u00a0of\u00a0global\u00a0importance,\u00a0as\u00a0well\u00a0as\u00a0the\u00a0Islamic\u00a0holy\u00a0cities\u00a0of\u00a0Makkah\u00a0and\u00a0Madinah.\u00a0Saudi\u00a0financial\u00a0resources\u00a0could\u00a0support\u00a0joint\u00a0procurement,\u00a0industrial\u00a0partnerships,\u00a0basing\u00a0infrastructure\u00a0and\u00a0sustainment\u00a0programmes.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye\u00a0contributes\u00a0the\u00a0grouping\u2019s\u00a0largest\u00a0indigenous\u00a0defence-industrial\u00a0ecosystem\u00a0and\u00a0its\u00a0strongest\u00a0naval\u00a0capability.\u00a0Its\u00a0armed\u00a0forces\u00a0include\u00a0approximately\u00a0355,000\u00a0active\u00a0personnel,\u00a0around\u00a02,200\u20132,300\u00a0tanks,\u00a0about\u00a0300\u00a0combat\u00a0aircraft\u00a0and\u00a012\u201313\u00a0submarines,\u00a0although\u00a0figures\u00a0vary\u00a0according\u00a0to\u00a0whether\u00a0reserve,\u00a0paramilitary\u00a0and\u00a0legacy\u00a0equipment\u00a0are\u00a0included.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
An\u00a0established\u00a0Nato\u00a0member,\u00a0T\u00fcrkiye\u00a0also\u00a0offers\u00a0experience\u00a0in\u00a0alliance-standard\u00a0interoperability\u00a0and\u00a0expeditionary\u00a0operations.\u00a0Its\u00a0defence\u00a0sector\u00a0produces\u00a0unmanned\u00a0aircraft,\u00a0missiles,\u00a0naval\u00a0platforms\u00a0and\u00a0electronic-warfare\u00a0systems,\u00a0while\u00a0programmes\u00a0such\u00a0as\u00a0the\u00a0KAAN\u00a0fighter\u00a0are\u00a0intended\u00a0to\u00a0expand\u00a0national\u00a0design\u00a0and\u00a0production\u00a0capacity.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Aggregate\u00a0scale<\/p>\n
On\u00a0commonly\u00a0used\u00a02026\u00a0open-source\u00a0estimates,\u00a0the\u00a0three\u00a0states\u00a0together\u00a0field:<\/p>\n
\u2022\u00a0About\u00a01.27mn\u00a0active\u00a0military\u00a0personnel.<\/p>\n
\u2022\u00a0Approximately\u00a05,800\u00a0main\u00a0battle\u00a0tanks.<\/p>\n
\u2022\u00a0About\u00a014,000\u00a0armoured\u00a0fighting\u00a0vehicles\u00a0and\u00a0other\u00a0armoured\u00a0platforms.<\/p>\n
\u2022\u00a0Between\u00a01,000\u00a0and\u00a01,150\u00a0combat\u00a0aircraft,\u00a0within\u00a0a\u00a0total\u00a0military-aircraft\u00a0inventory\u00a0of\u00a0roughly\u00a03,350.<\/p>\n
\u2022\u00a0Approximately\u00a020\u201321\u00a0submarines,\u00a0all\u00a0operated\u00a0by\u00a0T\u00fcrkiye\u00a0and\u00a0Pakistan.<\/p>\n
\u2022\u00a0A\u00a0combined\u00a0land\u00a0area\u00a0of\u00a0about\u00a03.7\u20133.8mn\u00a0sq\u00a0km.<\/p>\n
\u2022\u00a0A\u00a0nominal\u00a0combined\u00a0gross\u00a0domestic\u00a0product\u00a0of\u00a0roughly\u00a0$3.5tn,\u00a0based\u00a0on\u00a02026-style\u00a0IMF\u00a0estimates.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
(The\u00a0figures\u00a0should\u00a0be\u00a0treated\u00a0as\u00a0indicative\u00a0rather\u00a0than\u00a0definitive.\u00a0Open-source\u00a0inventories\u00a0differ\u00a0over\u00a0the\u00a0status\u00a0of\u00a0stored,\u00a0reserve\u00a0and\u00a0legacy\u00a0equipment,\u00a0while\u00a0aircraft\u00a0totals\u00a0can\u00a0change\u00a0substantially\u00a0depending\u00a0on\u00a0whether\u00a0trainers\u00a0and\u00a0light-attack\u00a0platforms\u00a0are\u00a0counted).<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
The\u00a0distribution\u00a0of\u00a0capability\u00a0is\u00a0uneven.\u00a0Saudi\u00a0Arabia\u00a0dominates\u00a0in\u00a0defence\u00a0spending\u00a0and\u00a0access\u00a0to\u00a0advanced\u00a0foreign\u00a0procurement;\u00a0Pakistan\u00a0provides\u00a0manpower,\u00a0operational\u00a0depth\u00a0and\u00a0the\u00a0grouping\u2019s\u00a0nuclear\u00a0dimension;\u00a0and\u00a0T\u00fcrkiye\u00a0supplies\u00a0much\u00a0of\u00a0the\u00a0industrial\u00a0and\u00a0naval\u00a0capacity.\u00a0The\u00a0three\u00a0countries\u2019\u00a0munitions\u00a0stocks\u00a0and\u00a0wartime\u00a0logistics\u00a0remain\u00a0undisclosed.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
The\u00a0agreement\u2019s\u00a0immediate\u00a0value\u00a0is\u00a0likely\u00a0to\u00a0lie\u00a0less\u00a0in\u00a0the\u00a0creation\u00a0of\u00a0a\u00a0fully\u00a0integrated\u00a0military\u00a0command\u00a0than\u00a0in\u00a0deterrence\u00a0signalling,\u00a0industrial\u00a0co-operation\u00a0and\u00a0the\u00a0gradual\u00a0development\u00a0of\u00a0interoperability.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Joint\u00a0exercises,\u00a0common\u00a0communications\u00a0procedures,\u00a0intelligence-sharing\u00a0arrangements,\u00a0shared\u00a0logistics\u00a0and\u00a0co-production\u00a0could\u00a0improve\u00a0the\u00a0sustainability\u00a0of\u00a0operations\u00a0over\u00a0time.\u00a0Saudi\u00a0financing,\u00a0Turkish\u00a0manufacturing\u00a0and\u00a0Pakistani\u00a0operational\u00a0experience\u00a0offer\u00a0a\u00a0potentially\u00a0complementary\u00a0basis\u00a0for\u00a0such\u00a0projects.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
The\u00a0practical\u00a0limits\u00a0are\u00a0equally\u00a0clear.\u00a0The\u00a0signatories\u00a0operate\u00a0across\u00a0widely\u00a0separated\u00a0theatres\u00a0and\u00a0retain\u00a0different\u00a0defence\u00a0relationships,\u00a0command\u00a0structures\u00a0and\u00a0procurement\u00a0standards.\u00a0Converting\u00a0numerical\u00a0strength\u00a0into\u00a0a\u00a0credible\u00a0collective\u00a0response\u00a0would\u00a0require\u00a0political\u00a0agreement\u00a0under\u00a0pressure,\u00a0pre-planned\u00a0reinforcement\u00a0routes,\u00a0compatible\u00a0command-and-control\u00a0systems\u00a0and\u00a0assured\u00a0access\u00a0to\u00a0ammunition\u00a0and\u00a0spare\u00a0parts.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
The\u00a0pact\u00a0should\u00a0therefore\u00a0be\u00a0regarded\u00a0as\u00a0a\u00a0strategic\u00a0framework\u00a0rather\u00a0than\u00a0an\u00a0established\u00a0military\u00a0alliance\u00a0in\u00a0the\u00a0Nato\u00a0model.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s\u00a0possible\u00a0return\u00a0to\u00a0the\u00a0F-35\u00a0programme\u00a0remains\u00a0unresolved\u00a0following\u00a0its\u00a0acquisition\u00a0of\u00a0Russia\u2019s\u00a0S-400\u00a0air-defence\u00a0system.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Saudi\u00a0Arabia\u00a0has\u00a0also\u00a0shown\u00a0longstanding\u00a0interest\u00a0in\u00a0advanced\u00a0Western\u00a0combat\u00a0aircraft,\u00a0but\u00a0there\u00a0is\u00a0no\u00a0confirmed\u00a0imminent\u00a0F-35\u00a0delivery\u00a0to\u00a0either\u00a0country.\u00a0These\u00a0issues\u00a0underscore\u00a0the\u00a0extent\u00a0to\u00a0which\u00a0the\u00a0three\u00a0states\u00a0will\u00a0continue\u00a0to\u00a0depend\u00a0on\u00a0separate\u00a0procurement\u00a0channels\u00a0even\u00a0as\u00a0they\u00a0seek\u00a0closer\u00a0defence\u00a0co-operation.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
The\u00a0Makkah\u00a0agreement\u00a0gives\u00a0its\u00a0members\u00a0a\u00a0broader\u00a0platform\u00a0for\u00a0collective\u00a0deterrence.\u00a0Its\u00a0long-term\u00a0significance\u00a0will\u00a0depend\u00a0on\u00a0whether\u00a0the\u00a0political\u00a0commitment\u00a0announced\u00a0in\u00a0Makkah\u00a0produces\u00a0deployable\u00a0capabilities,\u00a0rather\u00a0than\u00a0remaining\u00a0primarily\u00a0a\u00a0diplomatic\u00a0and\u00a0strategic\u00a0signal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"On\u00a0Friday,\u00a0Saudi\u00a0Arabia,\u00a0T\u00fcrkiye\u00a0and\u00a0Pakistan\u00a0signed\u00a0a\u00a0trilateral\u00a0collective-defence\u00a0agreement\u00a0that\u00a0treats\u00a0an\u00a0armed\u00a0attack\u00a0against\u00a0any\u00a0one\u00a0of\u00a0the\u00a0three\u00a0states\u00a0as\u00a0an\u00a0attack\u00a0against\u00a0all,\u00a0establishing\u00a0a\u00a0new\u00a0security\u00a0framework\u00a0spanning\u00a0the\u00a0Arabian\u00a0Peninsula,\u00a0South\u00a0Asia\u00a0and\u00a0the\u00a0eastern\u00a0Mediterranean. \u00a0 The\u00a0Makkah\u00a0Joint\u00a0Defence\u00a0Agreement\u00a0was\u00a0signed\u00a0by\u00a0Saudi\u00a0Crown\u00a0Prince\u00a0Mohammed\u00a0bin\u00a0Salman,\u00a0Turkish\u00a0President\u00a0Recep\u00a0Tayyip\u00a0Erdo\u00a0an\u00a0and\u00a0Pakistani\u00a0Prime\u00a0Minister\u00a0Shehbaz\u00a0Sharif.\u00a0The\u00a0agreement\u00a0is\u00a0intended\u00a0to\u00a0strengthen\u00a0collective\u00a0deterrence\u00a0and\u00a0expand\u00a0defence\u00a0co-operation\u00a0across\u00a0multiple\u00a0military\u00a0domains. \u00a0 The\u00a0pact\u00a0follows\u00a0the\u00a0Saudi-Pakistan\u00a0Strategic\u00a0Mutual\u00a0Defence\u00a0Agreement\u00a0signed\u00a0in\u00a02025\u00a0and\u00a0provides\u00a0for\u00a0closer\u00a0co-operation\u00a0in\u00a0areas\u00a0including\u00a0military\u00a0readiness,\u00a0training,\u00a0intelligence,\u00a0logistics,\u00a0counterterrorism\u00a0and\u00a0defence\u00a0industry.\u00a0Its\u00a0language,\u00a0however,\u00a0does\u00a0not\u00a0specify\u00a0an\u00a0automatic\u00a0military\u00a0response\u00a0or\u00a0the\u00a0force\u00a0contributions\u00a0that\u00a0would\u00a0be\u00a0required\u00a0in\u00a0the\u00a0event\u00a0of\u00a0an\u00a0attack. \u00a0 Officials\u00a0from\u00a0the\u00a0three\u00a0countries\u00a0have\u00a0described\u00a0the\u00a0arrangement\u00a0as\u00a0defensive\u00a0and\u00a0said\u00a0it\u00a0is\u00a0not\u00a0directed\u00a0against\u00a0a\u00a0particular\u00a0state. \u00a0 They\u00a0have\u00a0also\u00a0rejected\u00a0suggestions\u00a0that\u00a0it\u00a0is\u00a0intended\u00a0to\u00a0form\u00a0a\u00a0sectarian\u00a0bloc\u00a0or\u00a0trigger\u00a0a\u00a0regional\u00a0arms\u00a0race. \u00a0 The\u00a0agreement\u00a0brings\u00a0together\u00a0three\u00a0militaries\u00a0with\u00a0markedly\u00a0different\u00a0strengths. \u00a0 Pakistan\u00a0contributes\u00a0the\u00a0largest\u00a0standing\u00a0force\u00a0in\u00a0the\u00a0grouping,\u00a0with\u00a0approximately\u00a0660,000\u00a0active\u00a0personnel,\u00a0more\u00a0than\u00a02,500\u00a0main\u00a0battle\u00a0tanks\u00a0and\u00a0more\u00a0than\u00a0420\u00a0combat-capable\u00a0aircraft,\u00a0including\u00a0JF-17,\u00a0F-16\u00a0and\u00a0J-10C\u00a0fleets.\u00a0Its\u00a0navy\u00a0operates\u00a0a\u00a0growing\u00a0submarine\u00a0force,\u00a0assessed\u00a0at\u00a0about\u00a0eight\u00a0boats,\u00a0while\u00a0the\u00a0country\u00a0retains\u00a0extensive\u00a0experience\u00a0in\u00a0high-intensity\u00a0operations\u00a0and\u00a0in\u00a0training\u00a0and\u00a0advising\u00a0Gulf\u00a0armed\u00a0forces. \u00a0 Pakistan\u00a0is\u00a0also\u00a0the\u00a0only\u00a0nuclear-armed\u00a0member\u00a0of\u00a0the\u00a0arrangement.\u00a0The\u00a0Stockholm\u00a0International\u00a0Peace\u00a0Research\u00a0Institute\u00a0estimates\u00a0that\u00a0its\u00a0nuclear\u00a0stockpile\u00a0remained\u00a0at\u00a0approximately\u00a0170\u00a0warheads\u00a0as\u00a0of\u00a0January\u00a02026,\u00a0although\u00a0Islamabad\u00a0continues\u00a0to\u00a0develop\u00a0delivery\u00a0systems\u00a0and\u00a0fissile-material\u00a0production\u00a0capacity. \u00a0 Saudi\u00a0Arabia\u00a0provides\u00a0the\u00a0grouping\u2019s\u00a0principal\u00a0financial\u00a0and\u00a0procurement\u00a0base.\u00a0Riyadh\u2019s\u00a0defence\u00a0expenditure\u00a0is\u00a0estimated\u00a0at\u00a0about\u00a0$88bn,\u00a0while\u00a0its\u00a0armed\u00a0forces\u00a0include\u00a0roughly\u00a0250,000\u2013257,000\u00a0active\u00a0personnel,\u00a0a\u00a0modernising\u00a0armoured\u00a0force\u00a0and\u00a0an\u00a0air\u00a0arm\u00a0centred\u00a0on\u00a0the\u00a0F-15\u00a0family. 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