BEIRUT \u2014 The recently signed trilateral defense pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan is expected to boost arms sales from Ankara to Riyadh specifically, but will more broadly bring the defense industries of all three nations into a tighter \u201cecosystem,\u201d analysts told Breaking Defense.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Mecca Pact<\/a> should not be viewed simply as an arms-export agreement. It is much broader,\u201d said Ali Bakir, defense analyst and an assistant professor at Qatar University. \u201cIt aims to facilitate joint investment in defense industries, major defense projects, technology transfer, local production, research and development, training, and the integration of complementary capabilities. Over time, this could transform the relationship from a buyer-seller model into a genuine defense-industrial partnership.\u201d<\/p>\n The so-called Mecca pact<\/a> was signed on Aug. 7 and aims \u201cto strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression, and stipulates that any armed attack against any one of the three states shall be regarded as an attack against them all. It further provides for the enhancement of all aspects of defense cooperation among the three states.\u201d<\/p>\n While the practical consequences of the collective defense portion of the agreement \u2014 likened to NATO\u2019s Article V \u2014 could be shortly tested as Saudi Arabia has been in Iran\u2019s crosshairs<\/a> in recent months, analysts said the defense industrial cooperation aspect will have lasting consequences, especially for Riyadh and Ankara.<\/p>\n \u201cSaudi Arabia does not simply want to import finished platforms,\u201d Serhat S\u00fcha \u00c7ubuk\u00e7uo\u011flu, director of the Turkey program at TRENDS Research & Advisory, said. \u201cRather, it wants to build domestic manufacturing, maintenance, and engineering capacity under Vision 2030<\/a>. Turkey is particularly well placed to support that goal because it can offer capable, combat-tested systems with fewer political restrictions and more flexible localization arrangements than many traditional Western suppliers (especially the United States).\u201d<\/p>\n \u00c7ubuk\u00e7uo\u011flu noted that the Turkish parliament will have to ratify the accord for Turkey to officially join the pact, but that it was unlikely to be blocked.<\/p>\n Albert Vidal, a research analyst for the London-based thinktank The International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that for Turkey, \u201cthe pact could provide a nudge for companies trying to penetrate the Saudi market. Turkish firms have been working on this for several years but with few major successes beyond the Akinci deal.\u201d (In 2023, Turkish drone-maker Baykar<\/a> signed its \u201clargest contract\u201d to export Akinci unmanned combat aerial vehicle to Saudi Arabia\u2019s navy and air force.)<\/p>\n Vidal said that Pakistan, meanwhile, brings \u201csignificant aerospace and manufacturing expertise\u201d \u2014 a potent ingredient for the scope of potential trilateral projects.<\/p>\n Bakir noted that if \u201cT\u00fcrkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan combine their respective financial resources, industrial capabilities, technological expertise, military experience, and human capital, they could create a much deeper and more institutionalized defense ecosystem. That would not only increase defense trade but also strengthen their collective strategic autonomy and deterrence.\u201d<\/p>\n KAAN-Do Attitude<\/p>\n As for specific systems that are more likely to change hands due to the pact, the experts pointed especially to Turkish offerings from air defense systems to the nation\u2019s indigenous in-development, fifth-generation KAAN fighter jet.<\/p>\n \u201cRiyadh is increasingly interested in diversifying its suppliers and building greater redundancy in its air-defense architecture, particularly after years of exposure to missile and drone attacks. Turkish systems could have a role here, especially in the lower and middle layers: H\u0130SAR-O could provide a medium-range option, while systems such as KORKUT and G\u00dcRZ could address short-range and counter-UAV requirements,\u201d gulf defense analyst Leonardo Jacopo Maria Mazzucco said.<\/p>\n