Finland is expected to see continued swings between sunshine, showers and warmer-than-average temperatures over the next two weeks, with forecasters pointing to a possible shift towards more settled conditions after Midsummer.
The latest monthly outlook from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), analysed by meteorologist Joonas Koskela in the Foreca weather blog, indicates that temperatures across Finland are likely to remain above seasonal norms through much of June despite periods of unsettled weather.
The forecast suggests that the week beginning 8 June will bring frequent rain showers across different parts of the country. While rainfall is expected on most days, temperatures are forecast to remain above average nationwide.
According to Koskela, the largest temperature anomalies are expected in northern Finland, where weekly averages could reach between three and six degrees Celsius above normal. In parts of northern Lapland, temperatures could locally climb as much as six to ten degrees above long-term averages.
Rainfall totals during the week are expected to remain close to seasonal norms in many regions, although eastern Finland, North Ostrobothnia and parts of Lapland could experience slightly wetter conditions. Forecasters noted that local variations are likely because many of the showers are expected to be scattered rather than widespread.
While Finland faces a mixed weather pattern, parts of Scandinavia are forecast to receive heavier rainfall. Sweden and Norway are expected to see particularly wet conditions, while a broad area stretching south from the Baltic region is also likely to experience above-average precipitation.
In contrast, large parts of western Europe are forecast to remain drier than normal. Central Europe is expected to experience below-average temperatures during the same period.
Rainfall during Midsummer week is expected to be near or slightly above normal. Current projections suggest the eastern half of Finland has the greatest chance of receiving above-average rainfall.
The outlook becomes more optimistic for those hoping for calmer summer weather after Midsummer.
Forecast models indicate that higher pressure could begin to establish itself across northern and eastern Europe during the final week of June. If that scenario develops, Finland would likely experience more stable weather conditions.
Average temperatures during the final full week of June are forecast to remain between one and three degrees above normal across the country. Rainfall projections show no significant departures from seasonal averages, suggesting a reduction in the unsettled pattern that has characterised much of early summer.
Large areas of Europe are also expected to remain warmer and drier than normal during the same period.
HT