European trust in the United States as a security ally has fallen to a record low, according to a new survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations.
The poll found that only 11% of people across 15 European countries now see the US as an ally that shares their interests and values. That figure stood at 16% six months ago and 22% in November 2024.
The findings point to a shift in public opinion before G7 and Nato meetings in France and Turkey.
Majorities in every country surveyed said they doubted Washington would help if their country came under attack.
The ECFR said the results showed that Europeans had drawn conclusions from President Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland, his doubts over Nato, his comments on withdrawing US troops from European bases and his military actions in the Middle East.
“Across the continent, there’s clear support for reducing dependence on Washington,” ECFR senior policy fellow Jana Kobzová said.
The survey covered Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK. It included 19,481 respondents and was carried out in May.
The United States is still seen by many Europeans as a necessary partner rather than an enemy. Half of respondents put Washington in that category. But 25% now see the US as either a rival or an adversary.
The shift has not produced broad support for leaving Nato. Only 29% backed replacing Nato with an EU-only defence body, while 28% opposed the idea. Many respondents took no firm position.
Most Europeans also believe relations with Washington will improve after Trump leaves office. That view held in almost every country surveyed, including France, Spain, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden.
The poll suggests that Europeans want stronger defence capacity without closing the door on the transatlantic alliance.
Support for higher defence spending has risen by an average of four points since last year. Italy was the only country where a clear majority opposed an increase.
Nearly half of respondents, 47%, supported joint European borrowing to fund defence spending. Support was highest in Portugal, Denmark, the Netherlands and Spain.
There was also broad support for buying more European military equipment. Backing for that approach reached 75% in Denmark, 72% in the Netherlands, 70% in Sweden, 69% in Portugal, 66% in France and 62% in both the UK and Spain. Poland was the only country where most respondents favoured buying more US weapons.
The ECFR authors said leaders now had public backing to build European defence capacity, but warned that voters remained concerned about the cost. Many opposed cuts to domestic public spending to fund larger defence budgets.
Ukraine remains a point of division. Most Europeans still view Ukraine as an ally or necessary partner, but there is limited support for sending troops there after a peace deal. There is also no clear consensus on admitting Ukraine to the EU in the current context.
The survey found stronger opposition to Ukraine’s EU accession in Hungary, Bulgaria, Austria and Germany. Opinion was also divided in Estonia, despite its support for Kyiv since Russia’s full invasion.
ECFR senior policy fellow Paweł Zerka said the results created a chance for European leaders to act faster on security.
European publics, he said, now recognise the need to “hedge against US defence guarantees” while keeping future cooperation with Washington possible.
The poll shows a public mood defined by mistrust, caution and self-reliance. Europeans do not want a break with the United States, but they no longer want to depend on it.
HT