River conditions in Brazil’s Amazon basin are expected to disrupt shipping during the 2026 dry season, with forecasts pointing to navigation restrictions from October and the possibility of river closures in November, according to Maersk.
The outlook is based on the Western Amazon River Authority’s (Capitania Fluvial da Amazônia Ocidental) Initial Advisory on the 2026 Dry Season, issued on 14 July, together with water-level data from Brazil’s National Water Agency (ANA) and predictive analysis.
According to the forecast, reduced river levels are likely to result in vessel capacity restrictions between weeks 41 and 44 (October), followed by a potential river closure during weeks 45 to 48 (November). Capacity restrictions are then expected to return between weeks 49 and 53 (December) before conditions improve in early 2027.
Credit: Maersk
Furthermore, if the projected drought develops as expected, shipping operations across the region could face significant logistical challenges, including reduced vessel capacity, longer transit times and higher operating costs.
Operators also warned that if river levels fall to the point where vessels must rely on floating piers or if sections of the waterway are temporarily closed, disruptions and associated costs could increase further.
Maersk stated that the situation may also place upward pressure on freight rates during the period, with the possible introduction of temporary surcharges to offset higher operating costs.
River conditions are being monitored continuously, with operators pledging to provide customers with regular updates as forecasts and navigational conditions evolve throughout the dry season.