Maersk raises its projections for 2026 after a 20% increase in revenue | El Estrecho Digital

Maersk has revised its financial forecasts for the entirety of 2026 upwards after closing the second quarter with a year-on-year revenue growth of 20% and an improvement in its maritime business results. The Danish group now places its core EBITDA forecast between 10.5 billion and 12.5 billion dollars, compared to the previous range of between 8 billion and 10 billion dollars.

The company has also raised its estimate of core EBIT, which increases from a range of between 2 billion and 4 billion dollars to a range of between 4.5 billion and 6.5 billion dollars. Regarding free cash flow, Maersk expects it to be above zero during the fiscal year, compared to the previous forecast of at least -1.5 billion dollars.

The new estimates are based on a growth forecast close to 4% for global container market volumes during 2026. The revision responds to the behavior recorded during the second quarter and to the company’s greater visibility over the expected evolution for the rest of the fiscal year.

Between April and June, Maersk generated revenues of 15.757 billion dollars, compared to 13.130 billion dollars recorded during the same period in 2025, according to the company’s quarterly figures. EBITDA reached 2.992 billion, compared to 2.298 billion a year earlier, while EBIT rose to 1.571 billion, nearly double the 845 million in the second quarter of 2025.

The evolution also represents a significant improvement compared to the start of the fiscal year. In the first quarter of 2026, Maersk had recorded 12.970 billion dollars in revenue, an EBITDA of 1.753 billion and an EBIT of 340 million.

Container shipping has been the main component of the quarterly improvement. Ocean increased its revenue by 23%, with a growth of 4.1% in the loaded volumes and a rise of 22% in the average freight rate. The utilization of ships remained at 96%, while the unit cost at constant energy decreased by 0.8%.

Ocean’s EBIT stood at 935 million dollars, compared to 229 million earned during the second quarter of last year. The figure also contrasts with the negative result of 192 million recorded by the segment during the first three months of 2026.

Maersk attributes part of this evolution to demand from the Far East and the increase in spot rates. During the quarter, there was particularly significant growth in imports to Africa, North America, and Latin America, against a backdrop of continuity in the export flows from Asia and, particularly, from China.

The disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has also affected logistics chains. Some of the goods destined for the Gulf have been redirected to alternative ports and land routes, while maritime capacity affected by these changes has been allocated to other trade corridors. At the same time, port congestion in Europe, the Middle East, the east coast of South America, and West Africa has contributed, along with demand and imbalances between traffics, to the increase in spot freights.

Logistics & Services recorded, for its part, a year-on-year revenue growth of 15% and 11% compared to the previous quarter. Its EBIT margin was at 5.1%, five-tenths above the first quarter. EBIT reached 217 million dollars, compared to 175 million a year earlier and 173 million between January and March of this fiscal year.

Land activities concentrated part of the growth in the logistics area, with connection solutions between ports in the Gulf region, while Forwarding increased its volumes in air freight and Project Logistics.

In the terminal business, volumes grew by 2.2% and revenues increased by 11%. Revenue per move rose by 7.1%, due to tariffs and increased billing related to storage. The EBIT of Terminals was 458 million dollars, nearly in line with the 461 million obtained in the same quarter of 2025 and above the 436 million in the first quarter of 2026.

The company also maintains its share buyback program for an amount of 1 billion dollars and its investment plans. In Brazil, APM Terminals has opened its Suape terminal after an investment of 350 million dollars. The facility has been designed as the first fully electrified container terminal in South America. Maersk has also added a new distribution and storage facility in the area.

In Vietnam, APM Terminals and Hateco Group have signed an agreement with the city of Da Nang to build and operate the Lien Chieu container terminal. The project involves an investment of over 1.7 billion dollars.

Maersk has not changed its capital expenditure forecasts. The planned CAPEX is between 10 billion and 11 billion dollars for both the 2025-2026 and 2026-2027 periods.

The company warns that its results during the rest of the fiscal year will continue to be conditioned by macroeconomic evolution, fuel prices, and freights. According to its sensitivity calculations, a variation of 100 dollars per FFE in container transportation rates would have an approximate effect of 700 million dollars on annual EBIT. A variation of 100 dollars per ton in bunker price would have an estimated effect of 100 million dollars.