Danish shipping leader A.P. Moller-Maersk on the 13th raised its full-year 2026 earnings outlook for the second time this year, as soaring freight rates driven by escalating Middle East tensions and solid transport demand pushed second-quarter operating profit well above market expectations.

According to second-quarter results released by the Copenhagen-based company, net profit more than doubled to $1.31 billion (approximately ¥210 billion) from $639 million (approximately ¥100 billion) a year earlier. Revenue climbed 20% year-over-year to $15.76 billion (approximately ¥2.5 trillion).

EBITDA—a proxy for operating profit—came in at $2.99 billion (approximately ¥480 billion), exceeding both the prior-year figure of $2.3 billion (approximately ¥370 billion) and the analyst consensus estimate of $2.12 billion. Operating profit (EBIT) also nearly doubled to $1.57 billion (approximately ¥250 billion) from $845 million (approximately ¥130 billion).

Full-Year Guidance Raised Substantially

Maersk lifted its full-year underlying EBITDA guidance to $10.5 billion–$12.5 billion (approximately ¥1.7 trillion–¥2 trillion), up from the previous range of $8 billion–$10 billion (approximately ¥1.3 trillion–¥1.6 trillion). Underlying EBIT was also revised upward to $4.5 billion–$6.5 billion (approximately ¥720 billion–¥1 trillion) from $2 billion–$4 billion (approximately ¥320 billion–¥640 billion).

The company left its outlook for global container market growth unchanged at approximately 4% this year. Capital expenditure guidance also remained steady at $10 billion–$11 billion (approximately ¥1.6 trillion–¥1.8 trillion).

The primary driver behind the stronger results is heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East. With the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid deteriorating conditions in Iran and continued attacks on vessels by the Iran-aligned Houthi group in the Red Sea, many ships have been forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa. This has effectively reduced available vessel supply, tilting the supply-demand balance in favor of shipowners.

Ocean Segment Leads by Division

By division, EBIT in the core Ocean business surged to $935 million (approximately ¥150 billion) from $229 million (approximately ¥36 billion) a year earlier. Higher freight rates and increased volumes absorbed cost increases related to the Middle East situation. The Logistics & Services division also improved, while Terminal division EBIT was broadly flat.

Maersk is the world’s largest container shipping company, handling roughly one-seventh of global seaborne container volumes, and its results are closely watched as a barometer of global trade health.

Cautious Outlook Ahead

Meanwhile, some analysts have cautioned that the current freight rate surge is “merely a near-term tailwind that masks larger risks down the road.” If Red Sea transits normalize, freight rates could face significant downward pressure.

Indeed, Maersk and Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd have announced in recent months that they will gradually resume sailings via the Suez Canal. For much of the early 2020s, most shipping companies avoided the Suez Canal on the key Asia-Europe route due to Houthi attacks, opting instead for the Cape of Good Hope detour. Market participants widely expect that as normalization proceeds, the effective capacity absorption from the detour will diminish, intensifying downward pressure on freight rates.

Maersk had already raised its full-year profit outlook in June, citing particularly strong demand in Asia. This latest upward revision underscores that the improvement in shipping market conditions has persisted beyond initial expectations, once again highlighting the outsized impact of global supply chain disruptions on carrier profitability.