The inexorably approaching autumn is approaching with dread: traffic jams will return to the streets. As every year, municipalities of large cities are urging citizens to switch to public transport and thus reduce congestion. For example, Vilnius announces new buses, trolleybuses, and schedules, but car drivers, when asked why they do not choose public transport , claim that one of the biggest reasons is delays during rush hour. Meanwhile, experts interviewed by Delfi claim that today public transport can already operate taking into account passenger flows in real time. Is it possible for such technologies to be applied in Lithuania?
Comments – plenty
Monika, who travels around Vilnius by car, says she doesn’t use public transport because of its frequent delays and overcrowded buses. According to the woman, her trip to work by bus would take an unpredictably long time, because the bus is usually late and when it arrives, it is overcrowded.
“I live further from the city center, there is a public transport stop near my house, but it is practically impossible to catch the bus there on time, according to the scheduled schedule, especially during rush hour. It is always late. It happens that I can leave the house an hour or even more before work starts, but I still arrive late. I get there faster and more conveniently by car, because I don’t have to squeeze in with everyone on that bus. Most of the time I don’t even get to sit down, so I literally stand in a traffic jam,” says Monika.
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Another Vilnius resident, Patricija, uses public transport on weekends. According to her, if she goes to the city center on the weekend, she chooses the bus.
“I drive a car on weekdays because after work I travel to exercise, it would be inconvenient to carry sportswear on the bus, and the journey would take longer. Now I know my faster routes from work to the gym. I only take the bus on weekends, when I go to meet friends and family in the city center. There are no traffic jams, there are much fewer people on the buses, and you don’t have to worry about parking your car,” Patricija shares her experience.
Vilnius improves the quality of public transport
Of course, a few opinions cannot reflect the position of all Vilnius residents regarding public transport. However, the Vilnius City Municipality company JUDU, which also takes care of public transport schedules and routes in the capital, when talking about what should be improved, also emphasizes the frequency of public transport schedules and increasing the number of routes.
“From September 1, autumn public transport schedules will come into effect in Vilnius – 633 buses and trolleybuses will hit the streets, with more frequent routes that will better connect the rapidly growing city districts. The changes have been planned after assessing passenger flows and the forecasted autumn travel demand.”
Every year before the new season, JUDU analyzes passenger flows, assesses the city’s growth trends and forecasts the future demand for public transport. This year, it is planned that about 226 million trips will be made on Vilnius public transport. Taking into account the growing passenger flows and in order to ensure smooth movement in the city during the most intense autumn period, the number of public transport vehicles will be higher than in previous years,” the Vilnius City Municipality press release reads.
It is continued that more intensive routes are planned in more densely populated sleeping areas, such as: Fabijoniškės, Perkūnkiemis, Baltupiai, Šiaurės miestelis, Lazdynėliai.
“We are planning the public transport network for the autumn season based on real passenger flows and forecasted demand. We are assessing where the city is growing the fastest, which routes generate the largest passenger flows, and at what time of day more transport is needed. The goal is that the increasing demand for public transport does not mean longer waiting times for passengers, but more frequent and reliable connections,” the report quotes JUDU head Loreta Levulytė-Staškevičienė.
Technologies used in the world
However, despite the increase in the number and frequency of bus routes, according to artificial intelligence expert Tomas Naščišonis, the biggest role in the breakthrough in the use of public transport may be played by technology and its ability to improve the quality of travel. According to him, today the possibilities of artificial intelligence (AI) in this area are extremely large and there are already countries that use it. When asked how AI could help in planning routes and schedules, he says that he sees great prospects for the technology.
“The system could continuously analyze where and when people actually move, how many passengers use specific routes, where transport is delayed, how the population is changing, where new neighborhoods are being built, where schools, workplaces, hospitals and other attractions are located. Then it would be possible to optimize not only the schedule, but the entire route network. For example, sometimes the problem is not that more buses are needed. It may be that the route of one route needs to be changed, a better transfer point created or the frequency increased only during certain hours.”
An even more interesting direction is on-demand public transport, where routes and vehicles partially adapt to real passenger demand. This makes especially sense in lower-density areas, where a large bus on a fixed route is half-empty most of the time. In my opinion, in the long run we will move from a “smart bus” or a “smart traffic light” to a smart urban mobility system that constantly does the same cycle: observe → predict → simulate → optimize → implement → measure the result.
“And here we go back to the same rule we talked about, AI is not the most important part. What is important is high-quality and interconnected city data. When we have it, AI can help a city not only understand where the problem is today, but also predict where it will be tomorrow,” comments the head of the technology company GoAGI.
AI is changing public transport route planning
Meanwhile, VILNIUS TECH Department of Logistics and Transport Management Associate Professor Dr. Ilona Jaržemskienė says that recently, a fundamental shift has been taking place in route planning technologies around the world – from static algorithms to real-time predictive systems. The main focus is now on ensuring that the transport network is able to dynamically reorganize itself. And the progress predicted over the next decade may be disappointing.
“There will be no more fixed schedules: public transport movement in cities will adapt to real demand with minute accuracy. The basic static schedules used in cities, which vary depending on the day of the week and season, are being replaced by AI-controlled schedules, which are more accurate and predict delays based on congestion data. Already now, using a virtual scoreboard, it is possible to see the exact location of a bus or trolleybus and the actual arrival time, calculated based on current traffic conditions. In the future, specialized apps will display information tailored to specific trips planned by passengers,” the scientist comments.
And the possibilities of technology don’t end there. The Vilnius Tech associate professor continues that artificial intelligence (AI) will soon start predicting traffic flows: algorithms will analyze city events, weather, and congestion to direct transport to where it is needed in advance.
“We also expect self-optimizing routes: vehicles will change their route in real time to avoid traffic restrictions or accidents. AI is already being used to adjust routes according to the real situation. Mobility as a Service/MaaS: the implementation of an integrated ticket is already underway, but this system still requires technological improvements. It is safe to say that after some time, a single app will connect train, autonomous car and scooter services, and it will be possible to pay for the entire trip with a single ticket. Micromobility integration: the last mile of the journey (from the stop to the door of the house) will be ensured by an automatically reserved autonomous scooter or robot,” emphasizes Assoc. Prof. Dr. I. Jaržemskienė.
If AI capabilities are not yet enough here, according to the scientist, dynamic transport on demand ( Demand-Responsive Transport – DRT ) will dominate in the future. What is it?
“This is the fastest-growing technology in suburbs and lower-density areas. It’s algorithmic bus dispatching: passengers book a ride through an app, and an AI algorithm changes the routes of small buses in real time to collect as many people as possible traveling in the same direction. There may be no more fixed stops or timetables,” explains the Vilnius Tech associate professor.
Buses will drive themselves
In Europe, there is already widespread talk about the possibilities of autonomous transport, and in Lithuania – little by little. According to I. Jaržemskienė, travel by such means of public transport will definitely become a reality.
“Buses and other vehicles will run without drivers, which will allow transport to work around the clock without interruption. Although fully autonomous transport systems that do not require any maintenance are still being developed, self-driving transport can already be seen on city streets. We should not forget about the implementation of smart traffic management systems: they help vehicles “talk” to city infrastructure, so vehicles will be able to instantly exchange data with traffic lights and other city infrastructure. In many Western European cities, buses have integrated sensors that automatically change the traffic light signal to green when the bus approaches an intersection so that public transport is not late,” the interviewee says.
In Vilnius, according to JUDU, AI tools are already being used in traffic management processes, but AI tools are currently not used in route planning.
“The greatest attention is paid to the creation of schedules taking into account the purpose of the routes, their coordination, adaptation to the most important communication points, schools, as well as to the requests and observations of passengers. We would like to point out that we are interested in the functionality of products on the market and the possibilities of using AI. Looking at the 10-15 year period in Vilnius, public transport will run much more often, will be renewed, and also much greener. The majority of the fleet will consist of environmentally friendly, electric vehicles,” JUDU’s response states.
Author: Justina Maciūnaitė, DELFI
