Novo set out its 2030 strategic ambitions at a Capital Markets Day in London on Monday, but the plan failed to satisfy investors hoping for a more decisive turnaround, sending the company’s stock down as much as 7% before paring losses to 5.4% by midday in Copenhagen.
At the event, the company outlined targets to bring more than five drugs with multi-blockbuster potential to market by 2030, reach over 150 billion Danish kroner ($23 billion) in risk-adjusted pipeline sales by 2035, and expand revenue from 2026 to 2030 at a pace consistent with industry peers. The company also said it intends to expand manufacturing capacity so that 10 times as many people with obesity can be treated with oral GLP-1 drugs, and to reach more than 60 million patients worldwide by 2030.
CEO Mike Doustdar acknowledged the competitive pressure the company faces. He told investors that the “elephant in the room” is that semaglutide — the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic — will begin losing patent exclusivity in the early 2030s, starting in the U.S. in 2032, a market that accounted for more than half of Novo’s sales last year, according to CNBC. “We plan to come on the other side of the LOE as a bigger company than we are today and a much more diversified version of it,” Doustdar said.
Doustdar also described a diversification push that takes the company beyond its traditional obesity and diabetes base, with new portfolio ambitions spanning blood and endocrine disorders, liver disease, and cardiovascular disease; he added that increased business development activity, which falls outside the 2030 sales target, would help drive that expansion.
Analysts expressed skepticism. Jacob Pedersen, investment strategist at Danish bank Middelfart Sparekasse, told CNBC that benchmarking growth against a wide basket of pharma peers signals an ambition level well below what the market has long assumed Novo capable of delivering. “The investors, they are very particular in what they want from Novo, and this doesn’t add up to it,” Pedersen said. Per Hansen, savings economist at Nordnet, said that investors had hoped for a transformative announcement. “For obvious reasons that miracle does not exist,” Hansen said.
Monday’s event comes against a difficult backdrop for the company. Novo rebranded from Novo Nordisk to Novo last week and introduced a new corporate culture framework as it works to close a widening gap with rival Eli Lilly. In the second quarter, Novo held roughly 39% of the obesity drug market while Lilly commanded about 61%, according to CNBC. Novo stock had shed 27% over the prior twelve months heading into Monday’s session, a stark contrast to Eli Lilly’s 52% gain across the same stretch.
The company disclosed in August that it anticipates adjusted sales and adjusted operating profit each declining somewhere in a range from 6% to flat for full-year 2026, measured at constant exchange rates.