President Alexander Stubb said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has become a “complete strategic failure” for President Vladimir Putin as European leaders gathered in Kyiv to mark four years since the full-scale assault began.

Speaking at a press conference in the Ukrainian capital on Tuesday, Stubb said Ukraine stands in a stronger position than a year ago.

“Ukraine is on the front foot,” he said. “This has been a complete strategic failure for the Russian president.”

Stubb argued that Moscow’s initial objective to seize Ukraine within days collapsed as the war entered its fifth year. He noted that Russian forces have advanced about 60 kilometres in four years, contrasting that with the pace of offensives during the Second World War.

“We must let go of the narrative that Ukraine will not win this war. It will,” he said.

Stubb called for continued military and financial support for Kyiv, increased economic and political pressure on Moscow and a shift in how the war is framed internationally. He said Europe must take a stronger and more concrete role in peace negotiations, which have involved the United States, Russia and Ukraine.

“At some point Europe must assume a stronger role in these discussions,” Stubb said, adding that he remains in contact with US officials.

He outlined three possible scenarios: the war continues through this year, a negotiated settlement emerges, or one side weakens. “At the moment Russia appears to be weakening,” he said.

Stubb also ruled out any Finnish recognition of territory seized by Russia.

“I can guarantee that Finland will never recognise areas that Russia has occupied. That recognition will never come from Finland,” he said. He added that Finland would support any settlement accepted by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The anniversary visit brought European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa to Kyiv, alongside Nordic and Baltic leaders. They attended a memorial for fallen soldiers and met Zelenskyy.

Zelenskyy thanked European partners for sustained backing.

“Our people trust Europe. We know that we are not alone,” he said at a joint briefing.

He said discussions focused on air defence, energy support and the use of a 90 billion euro EU loan package intended to support Ukraine’s budget and defence needs in 2026 and 2027. Von der Leyen said the European Union would deliver the loan “one way or another” despite opposition from Hungary and Slovakia, which have blocked the measure under unanimity rules.

Hungary has also delayed a new sanctions package targeting Russian energy revenues. Stubb described the situation with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as frustrating but expressed confidence that a solution would be found.

The Kremlin marked the anniversary with a statement that Russia would continue the war until its objectives are achieved. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the goals of what Moscow calls its “special military operation” remain unmet.

President Vladimir Putin, in a televised address, accused Ukraine and Western intelligence services of attacks on Russian infrastructure and warned that Moscow’s adversaries understood the consequences of any strike involving nuclear weapons.

Data compiled by the Institute for the Study of War and reported by AFP show that Russia captured more than 4,500 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory during the fourth year of the war, more than in the previous two years combined. Russia now occupies about one fifth of Ukraine’s territory, including areas seized before February 2022.

A report by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies estimated that Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties, including up to 325,000 killed, since the invasion began. Ukrainian casualties were estimated at between 500,000 and 600,000, including up to 140,000 fatalities.

Zelenskyy said earlier this month that 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed over four years of fighting.

A joint assessment by the World Bank, the United Nations, the European Commission and the Ukrainian government put reconstruction costs at 588 billion dollars over the next decade, with direct damage reaching 195 billion dollars.

Russian attacks on energy infrastructure have left large areas without stable power during winter. Naftogaz, Ukraine’s state energy company, reported fresh drone strikes on gas facilities in the Kharkiv region on Tuesday, marking the 26th attack on its infrastructure this year.

Diplomatic efforts continue without a breakthrough. A second round of trilateral talks involving the United States, Ukraine and Russia in Geneva last week ended without agreement. French President Emmanuel Macron said he is sceptical about the prospect of short-term peace, stating that Russia has shown no willingness to end the war.








Croatia’s Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic, European Council President Antonio Costa, Ukraine’s First Lady Olena Zelenska, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, Finland’s President Alexander Stubb, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Estonia’s Prime Minister Kristen Michal attend a commemorative ceremony at Independence Square in Kyiv, as Ukraine marks the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Photo: Ukrainian Presidential Press Service Handout / AFP / Lehtikuva









The fourth anniversary of the full-scale invasion began with a prayer service at Saint Sophia Cathedral in Kyiv on 24 February 2026. Guests attended the ceremony together with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Photo: Matti Porre / TPK / Lehtikuva









President of the Republic Alexander Stubb at a memorial ceremony in Maidan Square, Kyiv, on 24 February 2026. Photo: Niilo Simojoki / Lehtikuva


HT